基于东亚最大潜在风暴潮模型的极端风暴潮未来变化

IF 1.9 3区工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Coastal Engineering Journal Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI:10.1080/21664250.2022.2145682

Sotaro Mori, T. Shimura, T. Miyashita, A. Webb, N. Mori

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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要：我们基于最大潜在强度（MPI）和最大潜在涌浪（MPS）理论对热带气旋（TC）进行了分析，以长期评估热带气旋的极端强度和风暴潮高度。我们基于150年连续情景预测（HighResMIP）和大集合气候预测（d4PDF/d2PDF），研究了不同全球变暖水平下MPI场和MPS的未来变化。以北太平洋西部（WNP）为重点，我们分析了MPI的未来变化，发现它在9月份的30–40°N纬度范围内达到了最大值。我们还分析了东亚主要海湾和日本太平洋沿岸MPS的未来变化。预测了MPS的未来变化，并证实在过去发生过大型风暴潮事件的海湾中，MPS的变化更大。

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Future changes in extreme storm surge based on a maximum potential storm surge model for East Asia

ABSTRACT We analyzed tropical cyclones (TC) based on the theory of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) and Maximum Potential Surge (MPS) for a long-term assessment of extreme TC intensity and storm surge heights. We investigated future changes in the MPI fields and MPS for different global warming levels based on 150-year continuous scenario projections (HighResMIP) and large ensemble climate projections (d4PDF/d2PDF). Focusing on the Western North Pacific Ocean (WNP), we analyzed future changes in the MPI and found that it reached a maximum in the latitudinal range of 30–40°N in September. We also analyzed future changes in the MPS in major bays of East Asia and along the Pacific coast of Japan. Future changes in the MPS were projected, and it was confirmed that changes in the MPS are larger in bays where large storm surge events have occurred in the past.

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来源期刊

Coastal Engineering Journal 工程技术-工程：大洋

CiteScore

4.60

自引率

8.30%

发文量

审稿时长

7.5 months

期刊介绍： Coastal Engineering Journal is a peer-reviewed medium for the publication of research achievements and engineering practices in the fields of coastal, harbor and offshore engineering. The CEJ editors welcome original papers and comprehensive reviews on waves and currents, sediment motion and morphodynamics, as well as on structures and facilities. Reports on conceptual developments and predictive methods of environmental processes are also published. Topics also include hard and soft technologies related to coastal zone development, shore protection, and prevention or mitigation of coastal disasters. The journal is intended to cover not only fundamental studies on analytical models, numerical computation and laboratory experiments, but also results of field measurements and case studies of real projects.