Sensitivity analysis of the physics options in the Weather Research and Forecasting model for typhoon forecasting in Japan and its impacts on storm surge simulations

IF 1.9 3区工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Coastal Engineering Journal Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI:10.1080/21664250.2022.2124040

T. Shirai, Y. Enomoto, Masashi Watanabe, T. Arikawa

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

ABSTRACT Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is useful for forecasting typhoons as an external force of storm surge forecasts. This study examines the variation in typhoon forecasts caused by different choices of arbitrary physics options in WRF and their influence on storm surge forecasts. Eight frequently used combinations of cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layers were extracted via a review of previous studies. Subsequently, sensitivity analyses of these physics options were performed, targeting nine typhoons that landed in Japan during 2015–2019. Additionally, we conducted case studies of storm surge ensemble forecasts in Tokyo Bay and Osaka Bay using WRF-simulated typhoons generated in the sensitivity analysis. As a result, the ensemble mean of the forecasts was comparable to the storm surge reanalysis simulation results obtained using an empirical typhoon model wherein the best track data is integrated to reproduce atmospheric fields. This may be attributed to the fact that the typhoon parameters (intensity, size, approaching angle, and velocity) obtained from the best track at landfall were generally within the range of the parameters that were simulated using WRF.

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日本台风预报模式物理选项的敏感性分析及其对风暴潮模拟的影响

摘要天气研究与预报（WRF）模型作为风暴潮预报的外力，对台风的预报是有用的。本研究考察了WRF中任意物理选项的不同选择导致的台风预报的变化及其对风暴潮预报的影响。通过回顾以前的研究，提取了八种常用的云微物理和行星边界层组合。随后，针对2015-2019年间登陆日本的9个台风，对这些物理选项进行了敏感性分析。此外，我们还使用敏感性分析中生成的WRF模拟台风，对东京湾和大阪湾的风暴潮集合预报进行了案例研究。因此，预测的总体平均值与使用经验台风模型获得的风暴潮再分析模拟结果相当，其中整合了最佳轨迹数据以再现大气场。这可能是因为从登陆时的最佳路径获得的台风参数（强度、大小、接近角和速度）通常在使用WRF模拟的参数范围内。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Coastal Engineering Journal 工程技术-工程：大洋

CiteScore

4.60

自引率

8.30%

发文量

审稿时长

7.5 months

期刊介绍： Coastal Engineering Journal is a peer-reviewed medium for the publication of research achievements and engineering practices in the fields of coastal, harbor and offshore engineering. The CEJ editors welcome original papers and comprehensive reviews on waves and currents, sediment motion and morphodynamics, as well as on structures and facilities. Reports on conceptual developments and predictive methods of environmental processes are also published. Topics also include hard and soft technologies related to coastal zone development, shore protection, and prevention or mitigation of coastal disasters. The journal is intended to cover not only fundamental studies on analytical models, numerical computation and laboratory experiments, but also results of field measurements and case studies of real projects.