Carbon Balance and Management最新文献

{"title":"Conceptual pitfalls in the forest carbon debate","authors":"Christian Körner","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00412-w","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00412-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Forests stock up to 90% of the global terrestrial plant biomass carbon (C). Any rise or fall of that stock, but also its utilization for substituting fossil resources can influence the rate of atmospheric CO₂ enrichment. By employing the term ‘C sequestration’, the ongoing debate suffers, however, from an implicit confusion between (1) processes, rates or fluxes of C (e.g. tree growth) with (2) pools, stores or stocks of forest biomass C. Stock formation is driven by turnover, C duration, residence time, or tree demography, and not by the rate of influx of C, including tree growth. Enhanced tree growth must <i>not</i> be treated as a rise in C stock, without accounting for turnover, also removing often assumed benefits of CO₂ fertilization for stock formation, should tree growth be C limited, another questionable assumption. A carbon ‘sink’ is a potential volume that can be filled with C, but it does not represent a stock either, without accounting for C residence time. ‘Buying time’ by lengthening rotation has a cost in terms of reduced utilization of forest products for substitution of fossil resources. Finally, management cessation for biodiversity benefits, should be qualified by its conservation value, rather than by making a case for C storage benefits, without accounting for natural forest gap dynamics, and again, without pricing-in the inevitable cost of the cessation of the substitution of fossil C by renewable C. All this calls for a strict separation of the meaning of carbon fluxes and carbon stocks, and avoiding ambiguous terms such as C sequestration and C sink.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13001369/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147484261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Urban traffic dynamics and their impact on CO₂ emissions and temperature: a three-year GNSS-based study during the COVID-19 pandemic in Jakarta","authors":"Lin Yola,&nbsp;Garrin Alif Nanditho,&nbsp;Dinesh Manandhar,&nbsp;Olutobi Gbenga Ayegbusi","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00400-0","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00400-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background and Method</h3><p>Urban traffic and air pollution remain strongly interconnected challenges for big cities. In Jakarta, transportation activity remains one of the primary contributors to carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and urban heat stress, worsened by high-density land use and limited integration of public transportation. The COVID-19 pandemic temporarily transformed these dynamics through the policy of social mobility restriction; this study therefore aims to assess how changes in traffic volume affect CO₂ intensity and thermal level across different traffic policy and behavioral contexts. This study examines the relationship between urban traffic performance, CO₂ intensity, and air temperature in Jakarta from 2021 to 2023, during both pre and post social mobility restriction periods. Real-time navigation data were logged using U-Blox F9P and M8T GNSS receivers connected with environmental sensors along two major Jakarta routes. Over 75,000 data loggings were analyzed using spatial mapping, temporal profiling, and regression modelling to analyze interactions among the vehicle speed, CO₂ level, and temperature s. The analysis applied standardized thresholds for urban air quality (380 ppm) and thermal comfort (21.6–31.6 °C) to evaluate environmental degradation under varying traffic conditions.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>Across the three-year study, mean CO₂ increased by 185.29 ppm (+36.8 %), air temperature by 1.74 °C (+4.9 %), and mean vehicle speed dropped by 4.93 km/h (–25.1 %). Even during the social mobility restrictions, CO₂ and temperature levels exceeded acceptable thresholds, indicating continued anthropogenic burdens beyond traffic. Regression and spatial analyses showed that reduced traffic speeds are strongly associated with increased CO₂ concentrations and temperatures, with high peak concentrations occurring in commercial, industrial, and mixed-use areas.</p><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>The findings indicate that short-term interventions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic's social mobility restriction policy, can temporarily reduce traffic congestion but do not address the primary causes of carbon emissions and heat stress. Persistent CO₂ and temperature exceedances highlight the need for integrated strategies targeting transport, land use, energy, and industrial activities to effectively improve air quality and climate resilience in Jakarta. These results imply that focusing solely on the transportation sector is insufficient; comprehensive policy coordination is essential for reducing urban emissions and thermal stress. The study also demonstrates the value of GNSS-based real-time monitoring as an effective tool for informing integrated approaches to low-carbon mobility, spatial planning, and climate-resilient city management.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00400-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147484145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reducing carbon emissions in WEEE reverse logistics: a supply chain perspective on risk and collaboration","authors":"Lan Qin,&nbsp;Yiding Hong,&nbsp;Nan Li,&nbsp;Fangli Zeng","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00423-7","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00423-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The rapid expansion of the electronics market has led to a sharp increase in waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE), intensifying environmental pressure and carbon emissions associated with inefficient recycling systems. Traditional WEEE reverse logistics are characterized by high energy consumption and low resource recovery efficiency, limiting their contribution to carbon reduction goals. To address this issue, this study develops a tripartite evolutionary game model involving the government, consumers, and recycling platforms to analyze strategic interactions and system dynamics in low-carbon WEEE recycling. Numerical simulations are conducted to examine the effects of key parameters on equilibrium stability and convergence behavior. The results indicate that appropriately calibrated government subsidies, consumer participation incentives, and platform-level cooperative benefits accelerate system convergence toward a stable low-carbon equilibrium. However, excessive subsidies generate diminishing marginal effects and potential fiscal inefficiencies. Enhancing long-term cooperative benefits and technological efficiency is shown to improve equilibrium stability and carbon performance. This study contributes to the literature by integrating carbon emission considerations into evolutionary game modeling of WEEE reverse logistics and provides managerial insights into mechanism design for sustainable supply chain coordination.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00423-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147466405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatio-temporal dynamics of per capita energy consumption carbon emissions in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration based on the ESTDA model","authors":"Ning You,&nbsp;Libo Han,&nbsp;Shaomei Li,&nbsp;Jingzhen Ma,&nbsp;Qing Xu","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00401-z","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00401-z","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;p&gt;China is currently the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide and also one of the countries making the greatest efforts to reduce emissions. The Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration, located in southwest China, sits at the geometric center connecting China with South and Southeast Asia. Positioned at the convergence of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Yangtze River Economic Belt, it represents a typical plateau-based, ecologically livable urban cluster. Anthropogenic emissions at the county administrative level are crucial for achieving carbon neutrality goals, as reduction targets can be effectively decomposed to subnational units. However, existing research has primarily focused on the provincial or national level, with limited studies examining the spatiotemporal interaction characteristics of carbon emissions at the county level. This paper examines the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration, employing Exploratory Spatio-Temporal Data Analysis (ESTDA) and Tapio spatial econometric methods. Based on a remote sensing image inversion dataset, it quantifies the spatio-temporal dynamics of county-level carbon emissions within the agglomeration from 2006 to 2021, along with the decoupling of emissions from economic growth during this 15-year period. Spatio-temporal interaction patterns of per capita carbon emissions across counties were analyzed using LISA metrics (path length, curvature, mean activity direction), spatiotemporal transition matrices (transition probabilities, transition types, transition indices), and spatiotemporal network graphs. Results indicate that per capita energy consumption carbon emissions in counties within the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration exhibit strong spatial clustering stability and path dependency characteristics. From 2006 to 2021, Type IV transitions (self-sustaining transitions where neither the region itself nor its adjacent units undergo spatial association type changes) dominated, accounting for 65.31%. This phenomenon may be linked to the rigidity of local energy consumption structures and the slow pace of industrial restructuring. However, the proportion of such transitions has shown a declining trend in recent years. By constructing a synergy index based on the LISA time-path covariance correlation coefficient of per capita carbon emissions in adjacent counties and visualizing it through the LISA spatiotemporal network, it was found that the region predominantly exhibited positive correlations (synergistic growth) from 2006 to 2021, with a pronounced trend of synergistic evolution. This formed a weak synergistic development network centered on Chenggong County, reflecting the core county’s significant radiating and driving role in the regional low-carbon synergy process. Furthermore, this study identifies four decoupling states between per capita carbon emissions and per capita GDP: weak decoupling, strong decoupling, negative growth decoupling, and strong negative decoupling. Among these, wea","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13224723/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147454837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Low-carbon pilot policy and urban carbon metabolism efficiency: evidence from China","authors":"Huiping Wang,&nbsp;Xiaochen Shi","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00426-4","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00426-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Carbon, as a key element in urban metabolic processes, has received increasing attention. On the basis of data from 197 Chinese cities from 2005 to 2019, we measure the urban carbon metabolism efficiency (CME) via the super-efficiency slacks-based measure (SBM) model and examines the effects and mechanisms of the low-carbon pilot policy (LCPP) on CME through the two-way fixed effect difference-in-differences (TWFE-DID) model. The results of the study reveal that the urban CME in China generally shows a zigzag upward trend, with the highest efficiency in East China, the second highest efficiency in Central China, and lower efficiency in West China and Northeast China. The implementation of the LCPP can significantly improve CME, and this conclusion holds robust significance following a comprehensive series of endogeneity and robustness examinations. Green technology innovation, industrial structure upgrading, and green finance play important intermediary roles between the LCPP and CME. The LCPP significantly enhances CME in eastern cities, non-resource-based cities, and cities with high marketization, while the impact in other regions is not significant.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13088729/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147429815","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanisms of terrestrial carbon sinks in Jiangxi Province, subtropical China","authors":"Xu Song,&nbsp;Xi Chen,&nbsp;Bofu Zheng,&nbsp;Wei Wan","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00421-9","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00421-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h2>Highlights</h2><div>\u0000 \u0000 <ul>\u0000 <li>\u0000 <p>Significant and persistent degradation of NEP is identified in urban agglomeration areas.</p>\u0000 </li>\u0000 <li>\u0000 <p>Critical thresholds of topography conditions for NEP variation were determined.</p>\u0000 </li>\u0000 <li>\u0000 <p>Interaction between soil type and land use patterns is the key driver of NEP variations.</p>\u0000 </li>\u0000 <li>\u0000 <p>Region-specific optimization strategies for the dual carbon goals are proposed.</p>\u0000 </li>\u0000 </ul>\u0000 </div></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13001212/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147372088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal dynamics and associations of soil organic carbon and total nitrogen in the Qilian Mountain Grasslands","authors":"Jiafang Cai,&nbsp;Meiling Zhang,&nbsp;Youyi Zhao,&nbsp;Yanjun Gong,&nbsp;Hanying Wang","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00422-8","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00422-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Understanding the coordinated changes in soil carbon and nitrogen is essential for evaluating ecosystem responses to environmental change, particularly in ecologically fragile alpine regions such as the Qilian Mountains. In this study, the denitrification–decomposition (DNDC) model was used to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil organic carbon density (SOCD) and total nitrogen density (STND) in the 0–30 cm soil layer from 1975 to 2024. The results revealed that SOCD and STND were higher in the northern and east-central grasslands and lower in the southwestern regions. Both stocks exhibited fluctuating but overall increasing trends, with notable increases aligned with major ecological protection policies in China. To better understand the coupling of soil carbon and nitrogen, we constructed a composite indicator called soil carbon and nitrogen density (SCND) using principal component analysis. This indicator captures the synergistic accumulation of organic carbon and total nitrogen driven by shared ecological processes and was further used to explore its associations with environmental factors, enabling an integrated assessment of soil carbon–nitrogen dynamics. The results revealed that elevation and soil bulk density were the main direct drivers of carbon and nitrogen accumulation, both of which exerted negative effects, whereas the other factors acted through indirect pathways. These findings underscore the importance of topography and soil structure in regulating carbon and nitrogen dynamics. It is recommended to plant deep-rooted grass species, limit heavy machinery, and maintain long-term ecological protection to prevent declines after initial gains from interventions. In addition, the carbon-to-nitrogen (C/N) ratio showed increasing spatial heterogeneity over time, with high values in the western and central regions, where nitrogen input can be enhanced by introducing legumes or applying organic fertilizers. In the northern and southeastern areas, grazing exclusion or low-intensity grazing is recommended to promote organic matter accumulation. Vertically, the C/N ratio decreased with soil depth, indicating strong carbon and nitrogen coupling within the soil profile. Overall, this study highlights the coordinated dynamics of soil carbon and nitrogen in the Qilian Mountain grasslands, providing valuable insights for the sustainable management and resilience improvement of grasslands in this region under changing environmental conditions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13224459/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147372075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How do forest types regulate soil organic carbon quantity and quality in southeastern Xizang? Evidence from soil organic carbon and the carbon pool management index","authors":"Jiahua Han,&nbsp;Chao Wang,&nbsp;Xiyue Meng,&nbsp;Jie Lu","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00419-3","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00419-3","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;p&gt;The forest soil carbon pool is a core component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, and its quantity and quality are largely regulated by forest types, thereby influencing the carbon sequestration capacity of forest ecosystems. The Qinghai–Xizang Plateau is one of the regions most sensitive to global climate change, experiencing warming rates higher than the global average and pronounced ecological vulnerability. Among its subregions, southeastern Xizang is characterized by extensive forest cover and prominent ecological functions. Accordingly, elucidating the differentiation characteristics and driving mechanisms of soil carbon pool quantity and quality among different forest types in this region is of great significance for accurately evaluating regional carbon sink capacity. This study focused on multiple representative forest types in southeastern Xizang, including coniferous forests, broad-leaved forests, and conifer–broadleaf mixed forests, to systematically compare the distribution characteristics of soil organic carbon (SOC) and its fractions among different forest stands, and to explore the variation patterns and driving factors of the carbon pool management index (CPMI). The results showed significant differences in soil organic carbon and its fractions among forest types in southeastern Xizang (&lt;i&gt;p&lt;/i&gt; &lt; 0.05). The &lt;i&gt;Cupressus gigantea&lt;/i&gt; forest exhibited consistently higher levels of soil organic carbon and its fractions, indicating a strong carbon accumulation capacity, whereas both &lt;i&gt;Pinus densata&lt;/i&gt; forest and &lt;i&gt;Pinus yunnanensis–Populus davidiana&lt;/i&gt; mixed forest showed relatively lower values overall. The carbon pool management index varied markedly among forest types. The &lt;i&gt;Cupressus gigantea&lt;/i&gt; forest showed the highest carbon pool index (CPI) and carbon pool management index (CPMI) (&lt;i&gt;p&lt;/i&gt; &lt; 0.05), indicating the best soil carbon pool quality. Driving factor analysis revealed that soil organic carbon (SOC) and carbon pool index (CPI) were primarily regulated by available nitrogen (AN), available potassium (AK), electrical conductivity (EC), and soil water content (WC). The carbon pool management index (CPMI) was mainly driven by field capacity (FC) and total nitrogen (TN), whereas carbon pool activity (A) and the carbon pool activity index (AI) were more dependent on available phosphorus (AP) and total phosphorus (TP). Redundancy analysis (RDA) showed that the first two ordination axes together explained 92.8% of the total variation, with the first axis accounting for 88.1% and the second axis for 4.7%, indicating that environmental factors can effectively explain the variation in soil carbon pool quantity and quality. This study revealed the spatial differentiation patterns and distinct driving mechanisms of soil carbon pool quantity and quality in alpine forests, providing a scientific basis for evaluating forest carbon pool quality and guiding regional carbon sequestration enhancement and management.&lt;/p","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00419-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147347085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Private charging pile owners’ sharing intention: evidence from China","authors":"Yi Yu,&nbsp;Kangxin Pan,&nbsp;Donglan Zha","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00420-w","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00420-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The sharing of private charging pile (PCP) can significantly alleviate the construction pressure on public charging infrastructure and benefit for low carbon travel. However, the PCP sharing is in a nascent state with a low market share in reality. Thus, we construct a comprehensive TAM-UTAUT structural equation model to explore the factors influencing the sharing intention of PCP from 660 survey responses of PCP owners. We also analyze the differences across heterogeneous groups. Our finding indicates that perceived trust, performance expectancy, social influence, and incentive policies have a positive impact on the sharing intention of PCP, with incentive policies exhibiting the strongest effect, followed by social influence. Interestingly, female owners’ sharing intention is more responsive to both shared revenue and social conformity than that of male owners, whereas male owners tend to have greater concern regarding sharing risks. Younger owner groups are more significantly influenced by the practical effectiveness of sharing, while middle-aged and elderly groups pay more attention to policy incentives and sharing-related risks. Owners without private parking spaces are more influenced by the practical effectiveness of sharing. In contrast, owners with private spaces are more attentive to sharing risks and policy support. Based on the findings, we propose specific recommendations for both the government and the charging service operators to further promote the sharing of PCP.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13020262/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147321091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Provincial allocation of carbon emission quotas for China’s 2030 carbon peak target","authors":"Ning Wang,&nbsp;Jin Li,&nbsp;Zhongke Qu,&nbsp;Hui Xi,&nbsp;Yang Zhang,&nbsp;Zhanjun Wang,&nbsp;Zhaolin Gu","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00415-7","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00415-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Developing a fair and effective carbon emissions quotas (CEQ) allocation plan is crucial for China. This study uses the constructed threshold-STIRPAT extended model to predict the carbon peak in China’s 30 provinces. Secondly, the entropy-TOPSIS method is used to calculate the initial allocation of CEQ based on the principle of fairness and is assessed through the carbon Gini coefficient. Thirdly, the optimal allocation of CEQ is calculated based on efficiency principle using the ZSG-DEA model. Finally, based on the carbon peak and CEQ, identify the emission reduction pressures faced by provinces. The results indicate that, under the energy-saving development scenario, China carbon emissions (CE) are expected to peak at 11,813.44 Mt by 2030. which can serve as China’s overall CEQ; From the perspective of initial allocation of CEQ under the principle of fairness, the initial CEQ in the eastern and central regions are generally higher than those in the western and northeastern regions; From the perspective of optimizing CEQ allocation under the principle of efficiency, the optimized CEQ in Jiangsu, Shandong, and Guangdong are significantly higher than the initial CEQ, while the optimized CEQ in Guangxi and Gansu are significantly lower than the initial CEQ; High-High are mainly concentrated in the northern regions, High-Low are mainly distributed in the central and eastern coastal regions, and Low-Low are mainly distributed in the western and northeastern regions. This study provides a new research approach for developing fair and effective CEQ allocation schemes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00415-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147315911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}