Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science最新文献

{"title":"Submesoscale processes and their seasonality generated by freshwater discharge at the Yangtze estuary","authors":"Yifan Wang ,&nbsp;Jihai Dong ,&nbsp;Jiliang Xuan ,&nbsp;Xiaojiang Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhiyou Jing ,&nbsp;Changming Dong ,&nbsp;Tatyana Eremina","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108951","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108951","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As the intersection between land and sea, the estuary is a hotpot for natural and human-induced processes that affect its physical and chemical characteristics, as well as biodiversity and ecosystems. Due to a combination of freshwater discharge and the unique topography of river estuaries, submesoscales with a spatial scale of <em>O</em>(1) km can be easily generated due to the presence of strong salinity fronts at river estuaries. As the biggest river in Asia, the basically dynamical characteristics and their seasonal mechanisms of submesoscales at the Yangtze estuary remain unclear. Using a nested high-resolution (300 m) simulation established by the Coastal and Regional Ocean Community model (CROCO), the seasonal variability of submesoscales at the Yangtze estuary is investigated and the underlying generation mechanisms are analyzed based on the analysis of kinetic energy budget. The results of normalized relative vorticity, horizontal salinity gradient, and submesoscale kinetic energy (SMKE) show that submesoscale processes have a seasonal variation at the Yangtze estuary. This seasonality is tightly related to the freshwater input with a correlation coefficient of up to 0.66 (the confidence level &gt;99%). To figure out the dominant energy sources that control the SMKE budget, five terms including the baroclinic term (BC), the barotropic term (BT), the advection of submesoscale kinetic energy term (ADK), the pressure work term (PW), and vertical mixing term (VM) are diagnosed. The results suggest that BC, BT, and PW are the source producing SMKE, while ADK and VM tend to dissipate SMKE. This work suggests the important role of submesoscale activities in the energy cascade and enhancing the transports of tracers at the estuary.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"309 ","pages":"Article 108951"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142240657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Examining the relationship of biochemically-derived oyster larval food supply metrics with concurrent optically-derived seston properties in Mississippi Sound","authors":"James C. Klein ,&nbsp;Eric N. Powell ,&nbsp;Xiaodong Zhang ,&nbsp;Danielle A. Kreeger ,&nbsp;Roger L. Thomas ,&nbsp;Sara M. Pace","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108949","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108949","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The capacity for oyster (<em>Crassostrea virginica</em>) larvae to successfully develop, grow, and survive is dependent on the quantity and quality of available food. Therefore, examining food supply based upon its biochemical composition of lipid, protein, and labile carbohydrate offers critical insight into oyster larval performance and settlement potential. Biochemical analyses, however, are time-intensive, requiring that such studies be retrospective, generating a need to investigate alternative, real-time techniques to characterize food supply, such as evaluating inherent optical properties. To better understand the food assemblage available to oyster larvae, water samples from seven oyster reefs in Mississippi Sound over two years (May through October) were analyzed for temperature, salinity, particulate organic matter, biochemical properties (lipid, protein, carbohydrate), and <em>in situ</em> optical properties used to infer plankton abundance by size class (pico-, nano-, microplankton), total chlorophyll content, and the magnitude of absorption for colored detrital material. A subset of observations, considered to reflect conditions facilitative for oyster larval survival, clustered into four statistically distinct groups characterized by: high-microplankton, low-microplankton, high-protein, and high-salinity. Total chlorophyll content changed with abiotic conditions, with relatively high concentrations during oligohaline and mesohaline regimes, but declined during periods of changing salinity. Further, transitioning salinities co-occurred with reductions in microplankton concentration and increases in picoplankton concentration. Results of a Spearman's rank analysis, principal components analysis, and stepwise linear regressions revealed that optical properties were not strongly associated with biochemical properties, preventing these optical data from providing an effective index of oyster larval food supply. Instead, optically-derived microplankton abundance recapitulated total chlorophyll, both of which poorly corresponded to biochemical properties. Picoplankton, colored detrital material, and particulate organic material all exhibited a similarly weak correspondence to biochemical food properties, corroborating that measurements of chlorophyll and particulates do not accurately reflect the food available to oyster larvae, and that biochemical metrics remain as superior food supply indicators.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"309 ","pages":"Article 108949"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142312105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"High and fine resolution of bloom dynamics using HPLC analysis in a semi-enclosed harbour","authors":"Minji Lee ,&nbsp;Yoonja Kang ,&nbsp;Dongseon Kim ,&nbsp;Bonggil Hyun ,&nbsp;Seung Ho Baek","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108950","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108950","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Chemotaxonomic analysis, a functionally efficient method, was performed every week over a year in the semi-enclosed Jangmok Bay to determine the composition of major phytoplankton assemblages, including small phytoplankton. Multiple blooms occurred through a year: two in summer and one in fall. The high abundance of diatoms in summer resulted in an intensive bloom of cryptophytes with a one-week time lag, followed by a dinoflagellate bloom in the fall. Additional microscopic analysis revealed an ecological succession of major phytoplankton species: a bloom of fast-growing <em>Pseudo-nizschia</em> sp. in summer was replaced by a bloom of <em>Cryptomonas</em> sp. one week after the diatom bloom, and then further succeeded to an <em>Akashiwo sanguinea</em> bloom in fall. The dominance of relatively small-sized <em>Cryptomonas</em> sp. led to a mismatch between the microscopic and chemotaxonomic results during the second bloom, indicating size dependence. In contrast, for the <em>Akashiwo</em> bloom, the microscope analysis was significantly underestimated by the chemotaxonomic analysis. Additionally, the ecological traits inherited by bloom-forming species play a role in their bloom dynamics. This study highlighted that the frequent sampling with the rapid HPLC analysis is effective for accurately understanding spatiotemporal variations of blooms, and can be an invaluable strategy for early warning and understanding bloom patterns in changing coastal ecosystems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"309 ","pages":"Article 108950"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027277142400338X/pdfft?md5=19080641a1f229bd46c695d424e31850&pid=1-s2.0-S027277142400338X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142229856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-term observations of the turbid outflow plume from the Russian River, California","authors":"William H. Speiser ,&nbsp;John L. Largier","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108942","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108942","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Understanding the mechanisms that spread freshwater away from small river systems and form turbid, low-salinity coastal plumes is crucial for assessing water quality in coastal waters. We present an analysis of 15 years (January 2004 to December 2018) of daily MODIS Aqua satellite data and in situ instrument data on the turbid freshwater plume that forms off the Russian River (California, USA), a prototypical Mediterranean-climate, small mountainous river system (SMRS). We present per-pixel statistical metrics and regression analyses to identify and quantify the controls on the extent and configuration of the plume exerted by river discharge, waves, winds, and tides. While freshwater outflow exhibits a persistent signal in nearshore waters, a large-scale plume only extends offshore into coastal waters during high river flow, when plume turbidity can be detected more than 10 km offshore from the river mouth. Our results show times when wave radiation stress exceeds outflow inertia, confining the plume within the surf zone and leading to an absence of detectable plume turbidity in coastal waters. Although tidal currents significantly influence the plume near the inlet, wind forcing is the primary control on plume shape and extent in coastal waters, deflecting the turbid outflow more than 30 km upcoast or downcoast of the river mouth with respective wind directions. Coriolis forcing is also significant and observed most clearly during periods of high river discharge and low wind forcing. In addition to introducing novel remote sensing methodology for SMRS plume analyses, these findings highlight the complex interplay of forcing related to tides, river discharge, winds, and waves in shaping the behavior of SMRS plumes. New insights include the impact of tides on larger discharges, the role of Coriolis forcing in SMRS plumes, and the effect of cross-shore winds on plume compression. Further, by considering the Russian River as a model for SMRS, this study can be used to ground-truth existing numerical models of small river plumes and to contribute to understanding critical for managing coastal water quality and nearshore ecosystems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"309 ","pages":"Article 108942"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272771424003305/pdfft?md5=64fcb8272107a706a1a2b0ac82539ceb&pid=1-s2.0-S0272771424003305-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142241933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Manila clams Ruditapes philippinarum spreading north and establishing in the European Wadden Sea","authors":"Karsten Reise ,&nbsp;K Mathias Wegner ,&nbsp;Rainer Borcherding ,&nbsp;Sarah Brand ,&nbsp;Christian Buschbaum ,&nbsp;Andreas M Waser","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108940","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108940","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In an era of accelerating biological globalization and climatic warming, it is vital to understand how introduced species integrate. Pacific Manila clams <em>Ruditapes philippinarum</em> were introduced for aquaculture to Europe in the 1970s, spread and became harvested from the Mediterranean Sea to British coasts. From the Dutch Rhine Delta, Manila clams immigrated stepwise into the southern Wadden Sea, and by long distance jump dispersal they arrived in the northern Wadden Sea in the 2010s. Encounters remained few until 2021, when live clams were often found in intertidal seagrass beds and around mixed beds of Pacific oysters with native mussels. Shell lengths reached up to 74 mm with a longevity of 7–8 years. Adult abundances remained low (&lt;10 clams m⁻²), although larval numbers substantially increased in 2022 and 2023. Strong predation on spat may constitute ecological resistance to the immigrant. Haplotype diversity at mtDNA <em>COI</em> gene fragments is high and its composition is mixed from dominant haplotypes of other European sites, suggesting multiple introductions or an unknown source with an already mixed population. Currently, this is the most northern (55° N) population of <em>R. philippinarum</em> in continental Europe, but with the rapid expansion of this genetically variable population, further northward spread can be expected.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"309 ","pages":"Article 108940"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272771424003287/pdfft?md5=4884a677fe3ee3891e3b25db41672a38&pid=1-s2.0-S0272771424003287-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142172879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predictive GAM seabed maps can account for defined and fuzzy boundaries to improve accuracy in a scottish sea loch seascape","authors":"N.M. Burns ,&nbsp;D.M. Bailey ,&nbsp;C.R. Hopkins","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108939","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108939","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Marine seabed mapping is an important element in marine spatial and conservation planning. Recent large scale mapping programmes have greatly increased our knowledge of the seafloor, yet at finer resolutions, large gaps remain. Loch Eriboll, Scotland, is an area of conservation interest with a diverse marine environment supporting habitats and species of conservation importance. Here we test and present strategies for a predictive seabed substrata map for Loch Eriboll using drop down Stereo Baited Remote Underwater Video (SBRUV) imagery collected as part of systematic underwater survey of the Loch. A total of 216 SBRUV deployments were made across the study site in depths of 3 m–117 m, with six seabed classes identified using an adaptation of the EUNIS (European Nature Information System) hierarchical habitat classification scheme. Four statistical learning approaches were tested, we found, Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) provided the optimal balance between over- and underfitted predictions. We demonstrate the creation of a predictive substratum habitat map covering 63 km² of seabed which predicts the probability of presence and relative proportion of substratum types. Our method enables naturally occurring edges between habitat patches to be described well, increasing the accuracy of mapping habitat boundaries when compared to categorical approaches. The predictions allow for both defined boundaries such as those between sand and rock and fuzzy boundaries seen among fine mixed sediments to exist in the same model structure. We demonstrate that SBRUV imagery can be used to generate cost effective, fine scale predictive substrata maps that can inform marine planning. The modelling procedure presented has the potential for a wide adoption by marine stakeholders and could be used to establish baselines for long term monitoring of benthic habitats and further research such as animal distribution and movement work which require detailed benthic maps.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"309 ","pages":"Article 108939"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272771424003275/pdfft?md5=e854f429bf2da31cd20e065b9595c2e5&pid=1-s2.0-S0272771424003275-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142172770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"20-year water quality analysis reveals spatial variability and long-term changes at North Carolina's Masonboro Island National Estuarine Research Reserve","authors":"Colleen N. Brown ,&nbsp;Byron R. Toothman ,&nbsp;Michael A. Mallin","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108937","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108937","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Urbanization impacts, especially stormwater runoff and pollutant discharge, pose ecological threats to coastal ecosystems globally. Long-term environmental monitoring datasets and assessments are used to quantify anthropogenic impacts on ecosystem health. This study synthesized twenty years (2002–2021) of water quality data from the National Estuarine Research Reserve System-wide Monitoring Program at the understudied Masonboro Island Reserve (North Carolina, United States) and provided an analytical methodology that can be applied to other Reserves and monitoring programs world-wide. Time series and correlation analyses of biological, chemical, and physical water quality parameters were used to identify spatiotemporal trends of nutrient dynamics and phytoplankton biomass at three stations within a 5-km stretch of the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway. Heterogenous water quality conditions were observed between stations, especially for chlorophyll <em>a</em>, and were influenced by the relative proximity to marine waters, human developments, and urban tidal creeks. Long-term trends indicated significant water quality changes (<em>i.e.</em>, increased chlorophyll <em>a</em>, reduced pH and salinity) related to anthropogenic influences. An unexpected and rapid shift in nutrient dynamics occurred around 2007, marked by significantly decreased ammonium and orthophosphate concentrations, which considerably reduced DIN/DIP ratios. This positive change was potentially influenced by sewage infrastructure improvements and stormwater wetland construction, removing waste-derived nutrients that previously entered the ecosystem. Impacts of major storms were also observed with weeks of hypoxia and low salinity following Hurricane Florence. These findings emphasized the value of long-term trend analyses of monitoring program data at multiple sites and provided insights into the significant water quality impacts of urbanization and benefits from wetland protection. This study further encourages the evaluation of long-term water quality monitoring datasets in estuarine environments globally.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"309 ","pages":"Article 108937"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142172771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Baroclinic responses of Qiongzhou Strait throughflow to different forcings","authors":"Yanyu Chen ,&nbsp;Dehai Song ,&nbsp;Nan Wang ,&nbsp;Yang Ding ,&nbsp;Maochong Shi ,&nbsp;Bo Chen ,&nbsp;Xianwen Bao","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108938","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108938","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Qiongzhou Strait (QS) throughflow is affected by the seasonal circulation in both the northern South China Sea (SCS) shelf and the Beibu Gulf. The water masses with distinct properties between these two regions signify the baroclinic processes in the QS. In this study, a high-resolution unstructured-grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) was used to investigate the features and dynamic mechanisms of baroclinic-induced currents (BCC) in the QS. Different forcings were considered such as tides, river discharges, winds, and remote forcings (low-frequency sea surface level and current variations). The model results indicate that the volume transport of the BCC contributes to 31.26% of the total in the QS, determining the transport direction in summer. The baroclinic response to low-frequency remote forcings is most pronounced during the summer-autumn season, but less than winds during the winter-spring season. This finding underscores the importance of low-frequency remote forcings on the QS throughflow, which has often been overlooked in previous studies. Momentum balance suggests that the BCCs are predominantly driven by both the barotropic and baroclinic pressure gradient forces. Decrease (increase) in either of these two forces will lead to an intensified eastward (westward) flow. The contribution of the horizontal advection is relatively weak but cannot be ignored. This study highlights the baroclinic responses of QS throughflow to different forcings, which is important when investigating the circulation in the northern SCS, especially in the Beibu Gulf.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"308 ","pages":"Article 108938"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142097700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Millennial-aged organic matter preservation in anoxic and sulfidic mangrove soils: Insights from isotopic and molecular analyses","authors":"Sarah Louise Robin ,&nbsp;François Baudin ,&nbsp;Claude Le Milbeau ,&nbsp;Cyril Marchand","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108936","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108936","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Mangrove forests are known as coastal carbon sinks, but the long-term (millennium-scale) preservation processes of organic matter (OM) in their soils and the role of sulphur in these processes are still not fully understood. These processes are crucial for better estimating the impact of sea-level variations on the carbon dynamics in mangrove forests, which are particularly sensitive to sea-level changes due to their direct hydrological interactions with coastal waters. This study focuses on a soil layer enriched in mangrove-derived OM that accumulated during a stable sea-level period of the Holocene in New Caledonia (South Pacific). Radiocarbon dating situates this enriched layer at approximately 4000 cal BP. The aim of this study is to characterize the enriched OM layer using bulk (Rock-Eval), isotopic (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N), and molecular (lignin and neutral carbohydrates) analyses. This OM has undergone diagenetic processes such as dehydrogenation, and the loss of components such as the main neutral carbohydrates: glucose, xylose, and galactose. However, some Rock-Eval parameters, the total lignin content, and carbon and nitrogen isotopic ratios are characteristic of well-preserved OM, suggesting differential decomposition/preservation processes. In addition, SEM observations highlighted the presence of pyrite associated to preserved root material. Along with high S_org/TOC ratio, these results suggest potential processes of OM sulfurization preserving it from decomposition. Prolonged sea-level stability in addition to anoxic and sulfidic soil conditions enhanced OM accumulation and long-term sequestration in mangrove soils.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"308 ","pages":"Article 108936"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142097701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predicting the distribution of Coilia nasus abundance in the Yangtze River estuary: From interpolation to extrapolation","authors":"Yichuan Wang ,&nbsp;Jianhui Wu ,&nbsp;Xuefang Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108935","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2024.108935","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><em>Coilia nasus</em> was once an economically important fish in the Yangtze River estuary, but overfishing and other anthropogenic factors have severely depleted its population. To conserve and restore <em>C. nasus</em>, there is an urgent need to determine its precise spatiotemporal distribution. However, as a typical anadromous species, <em>C. nasus</em> seasonally uses estuarine habitats, resulting in a very high proportion of nulls in some seasons and posing a great challenge to predicting abundance. This study compared three commonly used tree methods (gradient boosting machine (GBM), random forest (RF), and conditional random forest (CRF)) to predict the abundance of <em>C. nasus</em> in the Yangtze River estuary using trawl resource monitoring survey data from 2013 to 2018. Based on the survey data, 16 explanatory variables, including temperature, salinity, pH, and chemical oxygen demand, were used as predictors, and the coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), and root mean square logarithmic error (RMSLE) were used to evaluate the performance of the three tree methods. Three metrics were used to assess the performance difference between interpolation and extrapolation for the three tree methods when modeling by season and combining seasons. The results showed that (1) compared with combined modeling, seasonal modeling could accurately determine the high- and low-abundance regions in interpolation, and the quarterly model greatly improved the extrapolation prediction accuracy. (2) Almost all metrics indicated that the interpolation RF model had the best performance, while CRF and GBM were significantly worse than other methods for some indicators, and the RF model had better robustness and could be applied to the abundance of all seasons. (3) The model performance in extrapolation was significantly lower than that of interpolation, RF was also the best method, and RF could still identify high-abundance areas when the amount of data was much smaller than that used for interpolation. The findings of our study can be generalized to species distribution modeling of other migratory species in the Yangtze River estuary or estuarine ecosystems in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"308 ","pages":"Article 108935"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142058355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}