Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science最新文献

{"title":"Spatial patterns of essential fish habitats in the western Taiwan coast","authors":"Yu-Jia Lin ,&nbsp;Chien-Cheng Lai ,&nbsp;Hsu-Sen Chen ,&nbsp;Tsu-Chun Chen ,&nbsp;Kuo-Shu Chen ,&nbsp;Norhafiz Hanafi ,&nbsp;Pei-Jie Meng ,&nbsp;Ying-Chin Fang ,&nbsp;Chiee-Young Chen ,&nbsp;Hsin-Ming Yen ,&nbsp;Meng-Hsien Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109210","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109210","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Habitat conservation can substantially enhance the resilience of coastal ecosystems to both anthropogenic pressure and global climate change. We analyzed trawl survey data collected twice a year over 11 coastal sites across western and southwestern Taiwan along a north-south axis from 2020 to 2023. This analysis allowed us to identify essential fish habitats with higher fish abundances and set management objectives and designate protected areas. We applied a generalized additive model to reveal the spatial patterns of environmental parameters, the univariate fish community index (e.g., species richness, diversity), and the abundance of the top 13 fish families. We applied a generalized linear latent variable model to isolate the effects of environmental parameters on the multivariate abundances of fish families. Significant north-south patterns were detected for the abundances of the 13 fish families, indicating that different coastal areas of western Taiwan serve as essential fish habitats. The varying north-south patterns among fish families suggest that different areas serve as essential fish habitats for different families. Different responses of fish family abundances to environmental parameters provide information for predicting how coastal development and future climate change might alter fish community composition. This information is crucial for developing effective conservation strategies. Our results can inform the development of ecological objectives and priorities for coastal development and conservation strategies. We recommend prioritizing the protection of croakers (Sciaenidae) as they may be particularly vulnerable to global warming and coastal development due to their preference for cold, shallow waters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"317 ","pages":"Article 109210"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143509854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projected thermal stress and regional vulnerability of Manila clam production in Korean waters under climate change scenarios","authors":"Yeajin Jung ,&nbsp;Suzy Tae ,&nbsp;Jungho Nam ,&nbsp;Young Ho Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109209","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109209","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Manila clam (<em>Ruditapes philippinarum</em>) is one of the commercially valuable bivalves, but climate change poses a growing threat to its survival and production. This study analyzed projected changes in thermal stress conditions for Manila clams across seven coastal sites in the Korean Peninsula using CMIP6 model simulations under four SSP scenarios in years 2030, 2050, 2075, and 2100. We defined vulnerable conditions as sustained periods of eight or more consecutive days with water temperatures exceeding 26 °C, based on previous thermal threshold researches. Our analysis revealed distinct regional and temporal patterns in thermal stress vulnerability. Northern sites, particularly Wonsan Bay (39.18°N), showed relative stability until 2050 under moderate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5), while the most southern site, Geoje (34.76°N), exhibited the longest high temperature periods across all scenarios. Statistical analysis demonstrated significant temporal trends (p &lt; .001) and regional differences (p &lt; .001) in vulnerable days over all sites. The number of high-temperature days increased significantly from 2030 to 2075, with most pronounced changes during 2050–2075 (mean increase 16.14 days, p &lt; .001) over all sites. The Yellow Sea sites showed greater absolute numbers of high-temperature days but less sensitivity to climate change compared to the East Sea sites, likely due to reduced influence from the Kuroshio Current. In consideration of the regional environmental impact of future climate change, we propose the adaptation strategies to support the sustainable production of clams including shifting the cultivation area to the northern region, developing heat-resistant species, adjusting farming calendars to avoid peak heat periods, and implementing deep-sea water cooling systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"318 ","pages":"Article 109209"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143680950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Manila clam (Ruditapes philippinarum) in France: Fishing activity, governance and present knowledge challenges regarding its biology and ecology","authors":"Nathalie Caill-Milly ,&nbsp;Florence Sanchez ,&nbsp;Muriel Lissardy ,&nbsp;Noëlle Bru ,&nbsp;Claire Kermorvant ,&nbsp;Xavier de Montaudouin ,&nbsp;Sylvie Lapègue ,&nbsp;Florentine Riquet ,&nbsp;Ludovic Bouché ,&nbsp;Céline D'Hardivillé ,&nbsp;Franck Lagarde ,&nbsp;Aurélie Chambouvet ,&nbsp;Nicolas Mayot ,&nbsp;Jean-Claude Dauvin ,&nbsp;Jean-Philippe Pezy ,&nbsp;Olivier Basuyaux ,&nbsp;Anthony Guéguen ,&nbsp;Yohan Weiller ,&nbsp;Isabelle Arzul ,&nbsp;Christine Paillard ,&nbsp;Caitriona Carter","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109206","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109206","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Originally introduced to France in the 1970s for aquaculture purposes, the clam <em>Ruditapes philippinarum</em> (Adam and Reeve, 1850) has thrived in favourable conditions across numerous sites along the Bay of Biscay, English Channel and Mediterranean coasts forming neo-naturalized populations. It is harvested by both recreational and professional fishers, with an estimated production ratio of 2.4 for both activities combined. Total French commercial fishing production is roughly estimated at around 2000 to 3000 tons per year. This activity is managed by three types of regulation at different scales: European (Minimum Conservation Reference Size - MCRS), national (licenses), and regional. Regional instruments govern fishing practices by setting spatial and temporal access rules to fishing grounds (also referred to as deposits), prohibiting certain gear types at the local scale, determining the minimum size of clam fishing (above MCRS) and setting fishing quotas. Not all of them are implemented everywhere; most often, they are based on stock assessment results and specific research programs, which are not available in every location. This article first provides a review of available information on current Manila clam production in France, and its regulation. Second, it offers an overview of recent knowledge mobilized for management purposes. This overview covers biological and ecological processes (<em>i.e.</em> population dynamics, reproduction and spawning, habitats considerations, biotic interactions and infectious diseases), and enables us to identify future research prospects of interest.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"317 ","pages":"Article 109206"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143527305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A systematic review of climate change impacts on water quality in transitional environments from a multi-hazard perspective","authors":"Asrat Tekle Asresu,&nbsp;Elisa Furlan,&nbsp;Fabienne Horneman,&nbsp;Federica Zennaro,&nbsp;Ngoc Diep Nguyen,&nbsp;Silvia Torresan,&nbsp;Andrea Critto,&nbsp;Antonio Marcomini","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109194","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109194","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change-induced hazards and their impacts on the socio-economic and ecological system are a major global concern, particularly significant in transitional environments with high susceptibility to modifications, and exposure to multiple land, marine, and atmospheric hazards. These factors can lead to the deterioration of water quality and the ecosystem services they support. Despite the availability of studies that link climate change hazards with water quality parameters, this is the first attempt to provide a literature review that synthesizes these impacts from a multi-hazard perspective. Therefore, the present review provides an analysis and synthesis of publications of the last 20 years that analyzed climate hazard-induced alterations of water quality in transitional environments with a particular focus on eutrophication processes. The analysis revealed that multiple climate change hazards (including flood, storm surge, drought, tidal flooding and variation in wind regime) can influence the quality of transitional waters with flood and drought being the most prominent ones investigated in 74% and 44% of the studies respectively. These hazards and their interactions can alter the dynamics of water quality constituents through their influence on the hydrodynamic, morphodynamic, and biogeochemical processes of transitional ecosystems. This involves a variety of mechanisms and interdependent processes such as the mobilization and transport of sediments, nutrients, and other pollutants, the interaction of water masses with different characteristics, and the changes in water residence time. Nutrient concentration, salinity, turbidity, water temperature, and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and primary productivity are the principal eutrophication-related parameters altered by different hazards. Besides, the interactions among different water quality indicators play a significant role in determining the overall water quality dynamics and the tendency of eutrophication. To illustrate these complex interactions, a conceptual framework was developed which can assist the understanding and analysis of climate change multi-hazard impacts on transitional waters. Finally, this work highlights that innovative observational and modeling tools are crucial for addressing the complex and dynamic interactions among climate change-related stressors, ecosystem processes, water quality constituents, site-specific morphological features and management interventions. Hence, the advancement of methodologies capable of integrating high-resolution remote and in-situ data collection technologies, alongside advanced physics-based and AI-driven models, leveraging their combined strengths, are required to deepen the understanding of complex system dynamics under multiple pressures, providing critical insights for informed decision-making on adaptation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"317 ","pages":"Article 109194"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143479492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Review of the decline in Asari (Manila) clam (Ruditapes philippinarum) stocks and contributing factors in Mikawa Bay, Japan","authors":"Aoi Shindo ,&nbsp;Manabu Hibino","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109207","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109207","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Isshiki tidal flat in Mikawa Bay, one of the major fishing grounds for Asari (Manila) clams in Japan, has experienced a drastic stock decline, despite active fishery management by local fishermen since 2014. This study reviews the reasons for the decline in Asari clam stocks within Mikawa Bay. The findings showed that the stock depletion is likely to be associated with annual decreases in the condition factor of the clams during the fall and winter seasons. As the stock has declined, the density of planktonic larvae has also declined, and their survival rates have remained low in recent years. These changes may be linked to a reduction in phytoplankton as food for the clam. In coastal regions of Japan, including Mikawa Bay, the implementation of stringent water quality standards has resulted in marked reductions in nutrient loads (e.g., nitrogen and phosphorus) from terrestrial sources. This reduction in nutrient inputs to coastal waters could have decreased primary production, and consequently, the survival and recruitment of Asari clams in coastal areas. Under these environmental conditions, even slight increases in biomass appear to negatively affect growth rates and condition factors, suggesting that density-dependent effects have become more prominent. As a result, improving primary productivity is considered to be important for the recovery of clam stocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"317 ","pages":"Article 109207"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143520421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The mass mortality of Pinna nobilis throughout the Mediterranean Sea has not yet affected the genetic diversity of the species in one of the last genetic reservoirs","authors":"Elisabet Nebot-Colomer ,&nbsp;Claire Peyran ,&nbsp;Salud Deudero ,&nbsp;Emilie Boissin ,&nbsp;Maite Vázquez-Luis ,&nbsp;Serge Planes","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109202","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109202","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Assessing the genetic conservation status of threatened species is crucial for enhancing their recovery and launch effective management. <em>Pinna nobilis</em>, a Mediterranean endemic species facing recurrent mass mortality events since 2016, is now critically endangered. The few unaffected or partially affected <em>P. nobilis</em> groups of individuals reside in isolated coastal lagoons and estuaries, but their genetic status and ability to adapt to future threats remains unknown. This study addresses these gaps by first assessing the genetic diversity and structure of the remnant <em>P. nobilis</em> group from the Mar Menor coastal lagoon using a set of 21 microsatellites loci and 284 individuals. It then compares this with the previously dense and stable <em>P. nobilis</em> group of individuals from Cabrera National Park, using a common set of 19 microsatellite markers and non-lethal mantle tissue biopsies from a total of 1055 individuals. The results reveal genetic homogeneity across different locations within the Mar Menor, suggesting a single, homogeneous group within the lagoon. Remarkably, the genetic diversity in Mar Menor is comparable to that of the now-extinct Cabrera National Park <em>P. nobilis</em> group. Despite the species-wide mortality events, the small, enclosed group of individuals from Mar Menor retain approximately 80% of Cabrera National Park's species genetic diversity and possesses 16 unique alleles specific to this lagoon. These findings underscore the crucial current role of Mar Menor lagoon as a genetic reservoir for <em>P</em>. <em>nobilis</em>, emphasizing the need for strong protection. Considering these results, individuals from the Mar Menor could serve as potential candidates for future species reintroduction programs in the western Mediterranean Sea.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"317 ","pages":"Article 109202"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143510531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revealing the influence of physicochemical parameters on the taxonomic and functional diversity of macrobenthos in hangzhou bay, China","authors":"Kangning Jia ,&nbsp;Yibo Liao ,&nbsp;Yanbin Tang ,&nbsp;Rongliang Zhang ,&nbsp;Yangjie Li ,&nbsp;Lu Shou","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109204","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109204","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Different mechanisms in marine environments can have multifaceted effects on the diversity and ecology of macrobenthic communities, highlighting their significance for biodiversity monitoring and conservation efforts. We collected 59 sites in autumn (September 2021), spring (March 2022), summer (June 2022), and winter (December 2022), and calculated community diversity, functional-trait diversity, and functional trait space to examine spatial and temporal variations in the community structure of macrobenthos in Hangzhou Bay, an inlet of the East China Sea. Through Mantel tests, we investigated the relationship between taxonomic and trait beta diversity, and utilized distance-based redundancy analysis and variance partitioning to dissect the relative impacts of hydrology, sediment, and spatial distances on beta diversity. Our results revealed functional redundancy (different species exhibit similar traits) during the summer season, along with variations in trait composition across the different seasons. Notably, certain species displayed functional traits outside the functional space during both summer and winter, suggesting potential unique ecological strategies or adaptations. In dynamic environments like Hangzhou Bay, there appears to be complementarity between the taxonomic and trait beta diversity of macrobenthic communities, leading to consistent ecological niches among species and, consequently, similar functional traits. Complementarity indicates that environmental changes can select for specific biological functional traits, which in turn select for species that are suited for survival, thereby altering the community structure in the region. Results from the variance partitioning analysis indicated that spatial factors and hydrologic condition predominantly shape the community structure of macrobenthos in Hangzhou Bay.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"316 ","pages":"Article 109204"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143445598","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of land use change on mangrove blue carbon services: A future perspective in northeastern Brazil","authors":"Nadia Selene Zamboni ,&nbsp;Maria de Fátima Alves de Matos ,&nbsp;Venerando Eustáquio Amaro ,&nbsp;Mattheus da Cunha Prudêncio ,&nbsp;Adriana Rosa Carvalho","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109185","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109185","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mangroves are important Blue Carbon (BC) ecosystems, providing worldwide climate regulation and other ecosystem services. However, the demand for several economic activities has led to land use changes, which can impact mangrove BC services. This paper aims to analyze the effects of land cover conversion scenarios on mangrove dynamics and BC services delivery along the western South Atlantic coast over 27 years (2023–2050). We developed future scenarios of mangrove conversions by applying the InVEST Scenario Generator tool and using historical conversion rates from analyzing remote sensing hybrid images. Maps of future mangrove species distribution were subsequently used to estimate carbon stocks and emissions, total Net Carbon Sequestration (NCS), and Net Present Value (NPV) by using the InVEST BC model. Based on our results, forest area could decrease by about 7.1% and total carbon stored by 7% by 2050, mainly driven by the expansion of shrimp farms. The total NCS could reach an average value of about 20.1 tCO₂e × ha⁻¹ × yr⁻¹, and the average NPV could get at ≈ US$8000 × ha⁻¹ × yr⁻¹. By 2050, the lowest values of carbon stocks (321 tCO₂e × ha⁻¹) and highest values of carbon emissions (&gt;600 tCO₂e × ha⁻¹), as well as economic losses (&gt;US$200 thousand × ha⁻¹), seem to be concentrated along the mangrove edges, which suffer more from high-impact human activities such as salt extraction and shrimp farming. Results highlight the dynamics of Brazilian mangroves BC services and the need for protective measures and restrictions against the advance of high-impact land uses over these ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"317 ","pages":"Article 109185"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143471357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increased impact of predators and coastal warming on Ruditapes philippinarum populations in Japan","authors":"Naoaki Tezuka","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109201","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109201","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fishery production of the asari clam <em>Ruditapes philippinarum</em> has decreased significantly from the western to the central coasts of Japan, excluding the northern coasts. It has been observed in the Nakatsu tidal flat, a representative population-collapsed habitat in western Japan, that survival rates are low, even if recruitment of juvenile clams has occurred. Predation is thought to be the main cause of mortality, and predation prevention has been confirmed to reduce mortality and enable clam production in many areas of western Japan. However, other factors also contribute to high mortality in clam populations, in particular the combined stress of high temperature and <em>Perkinsus</em> infection. Camera monitoring has shown that the main predators were black seabream <em>Acanthopagrus schlegelii</em> in summer and ducks in winter. Research has shown that foraging by black seabream damages nori seaweed (<em>Neopyropia yezoensis</em>) farms, suggesting that the foraging pressure from this fish species substantially affects coastal ecosystems. The rise in seawater temperature in winter may have prolonged the active period of black seabream, a temperate to subtropical species, enhancing its population growth and habitat expansion. Increased anthropogenic nutrient loads and hypoxia in colder seas during the period from the 1960s to the 1980s may have led to clam population growth with lower predator abundance. It is still unclear whether the re-eutrophication of recent warm seas will increase clam populations. Although increased food availability enhances clam growth and reproduction, reducing mortality by alleviating combined stressors; this effect will likely be masked if predation pressure and combined stressors strongly affect clam populations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"317 ","pages":"Article 109201"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143510532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Blue carbon potential from rehabilitating urban mangrove forests in coastal city","authors":"Peiyang Qiao ,&nbsp;Yue Meng ,&nbsp;Changxin Liu ,&nbsp;Tingting Zhang ,&nbsp;Mei Li ,&nbsp;Liangxia Feng ,&nbsp;Qinchang Chen ,&nbsp;Jialin Zhang ,&nbsp;Chen Lin ,&nbsp;Xiaoxuan Gu ,&nbsp;Luzhen Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109200","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109200","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mangrove forests are critical coastal wetlands for the global blue carbon budget and play a significant role in mitigating climate change. Therefore, accurate and reliable assessments or predictions of mangrove blue carbon are essential to support the implementation of mangrove restoration projects and to underscore their importance. However, current evaluations of mangrove restoration outcomes, particularly regarding the carbon dioxide removal (CDR) potential of these forests, remain inadequate. This study aims to investigate the impact of mangrove restoration on blue carbon and CDR in Xiamen City, located in the southeastern coastal region of China. Specifically, the study seeks to quantify the carbon stocks of mangrove forests at present and in the future and to evaluate the contribution of mangrove restoration to achieving carbon neutrality and peak carbon emissions. Field investigations and soil sampling were conducted in 2022 to establish a biomass carbon prediction model and to assess mangrove blue carbon. The average mangrove blue carbon is currently estimated at 89.27 MgC ha⁻¹, and it is projected to increase to 112.07 MgC ha⁻¹ by 2030 and to 173.26 MgC ha⁻¹ by 2060. Additionally, this research evaluates the CDR by offsetting the net carbon gain against greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, highlighting not only the significance of non-CO₂ GHGs in the mangrove carbon budget but also providing a robust foundation for the conservation and management of mangrove ecosystems, particularly in their capacity for carbon sequestration and their role in mitigating climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"316 ","pages":"Article 109200"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143430023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}