Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science最新文献

{"title":"Global drifters: the ecological role of non-native macroalgae as beach wrack subsidies","authors":"Iván F. Rodil ,&nbsp;Filipa Bessa ,&nbsp;Alexandra Baeta ,&nbsp;Francisco Arenas","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109289","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109289","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Wrack macroalgae play a key ecological role in beach ecosystems, recycling nutrients, reinforcing trophic linkages between sea and land, and strongly shaping consumer populations and food web dynamics. However, the consequences of changing wrack resources for macroinvertebrate communities remain uncertain. We manipulated <em>in situ</em> the availability of eight macroalgae species of different origin (natives <em>vs</em> non-native) and morphological structures (simple <em>vs</em> complex) to test hypotheses about how changes in the type and number of macroalgae contributing to wrack detrital resources might affect beach macroinvertebrate assemblages. Wrack-associated macrofauna assemblages and total abundance were not affected by the presence of non-native wrack. We highlight that the ecological relevance of non-native wrack in the beach ecosystem functioning is potentially equivalent to their native counterparts. The structural complexity of the wrack patches was the main factor driving differences between the wrack-associated macrofauna assemblages. Our study suggests that the aggregation of terrestrial invertebrates in structurally simple wrack represents a general ecological pattern in sandy beach ecosystems. The typical wrack consumer <em>Talitrus saltator</em> showed specific responses to particular macroalgae species, avoiding the less palatable macroalgae. The diversity response of the macrofauna community is more linked to the biochemical composition of the specific macroalgae, such as phenol concentrations than to the morphological structure or the origin of the macroalgae. By providing more diverse habitat conditions and food sources, the mixture of different wrack species showed a synergistic effect enhancing macrofauna abundance and the number of taxa compared to wrack monocultures. Understanding the ecological role of the different types of beach wrack, especially the non-native inputs, is important to develop clear and ecologically sustainable strategies for management responses to beach wrack accumulations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"319 ","pages":"Article 109289"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143767944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Paleo-shoreline changes in the northwestern Persian Gulf during the Holocene","authors":"Reza Shahbazi ,&nbsp;Sahar Maleki ,&nbsp;Razieh Lak ,&nbsp;Sadat Feiznia ,&nbsp;Hasan Ahmadi","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109286","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109286","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Persian Gulf and the fertile plains of Mesopotamia are the subject of archaeological, sedimentological, and sea-level studies for more than two centuries. However, the complex tectonic setting and coastal morphology around the Persian Gulf have led to conflicting estimation of relative sea-level changes in this region during the Holocene. We analyzed the lithological and geochemical characteristics of several sediment cores from the Lower Khuzestan plains, northwest of the Persian Gulf, to reconstruct the regional facies and environmental changes, and eventually sea-level evolution during the Holocene. Our results show that sedimentary environments changed with transgression and regression phases and the migration of paleo-shorelines, forming internal water bodies, wetlands, flood basins, and playas. We find four distinct relative sea level micro-sequences, during the early Holocene until about 9000 years before present (9 ka BP), early to mid-Holocene between about 9 and 7 ka BP, mid-Holocene between 7 and 4 ka BP, and late Holocene since ∼4 ka BP. Maximum sea-level during these micro-sequences reached −10 m above sea-level (masl), −3 masl, +1 masl, and +3 masl, respectively. Our study underscores the role of local sedimentation processes in modulating the effect of relative sea level changes, and ultimately in shaping the Holocene landscape of southeastern Mesopotamia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"319 ","pages":"Article 109286"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143785714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Eukaryote biodiversity in supratidal microbialite pools: A foundational environmental DNA assessment","authors":"Arsalan Emami-Khoyi ,&nbsp;Claudia M. Schnelle ,&nbsp;Dave R. Clark ,&nbsp;Silke Laakmann ,&nbsp;Peter R. Teske ,&nbsp;Gavin M. Rishworth","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109284","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109284","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Coastlines are a mosaic of habitats, including rocky shores, sandy beaches, estuaries, and artificial substrata. Although modern microbialite pool formations were only recently discovered as an additional coastal habitat along the southern African coastline, they are now known to be surprisingly common to this region. These ecosystems function similarly to estuaries, where seawater and freshwater mix, but with groundwater as the freshwater source instead of river flow. Traditional community assessments from morphological identifications have revealed some similarities between the organisms inhabiting microbialite pools to those of nearby estuaries, but no systematic comparison has so far been undertaken. Here, we used molecular methods based on environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding to characterise the eukaryote assemblages within and between three coastal southern African microbialite pools. We hypothesised that the three sites are taxonomically analogous to one another, which would support the existence of similar core ecological communities. Three genetic markers, one for metazoans (COI) and two for algae (rbcL and the V2+V3 regions of 18S rRNA) were targeted for metabarcoding. Our results show that the biodiversity of the pools was dominated by diatoms (particularly of the genera <em>Navicula</em> and <em>Nitzschia</em>) and, among the metazoans, by malacostracans, rotifers and nematodes. Although the three microbialite pools had similar broadscale community compositions at higher taxonomic levels (class and family), distinct community structure at lower taxonomic levels was observed, which may be a result of numerous opportunistic species being present in addition to the core organisms. The macroinvertebrate fauna of microbialite pools (e.g. peracarid crustaceans, polychaetes and insects) is well documented, although most are still missing from the DNA barcoding reference library. In contrast, the meiofauna (e.g. rotifers, nematodes and ostracods) is understudied. It remains unclear whether the two dominant diatom genera are the primary contributors to microbialite formation, or if other yet-undescribed species also contribute to the process. This study serves as an initial step in uncovering the hidden level of biodiversity within the unique microbialite ecosystems along the southern African coastline.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"319 ","pages":"Article 109284"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143783575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Temporal assessment of fish distribution and abundance in a hypersaline embayment, Hamelin Pool, Shark Bay, Western Australia","authors":"Kirsty E. Richards ,&nbsp;Kelly L. Campbell ,&nbsp;Benjamin J. Saunders ,&nbsp;Erica P. Suosaari ,&nbsp;Shaun K. Wilson ,&nbsp;Euan S. Harvey","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109277","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109277","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hamelin Pool Marine Nature Reserve is a hypersaline environment within Shark Bay UNESCO World Heritage Area, on the remote west coast of Australia. This unique embayment is home to the world’s largest population of stromatolites, globally significant seagrass beds, and is protected from fishing, yet little is known of its fish assemblages. Baited remote underwater stereo-video systems (stereo-BRUVs) were deployed within Hamelin Pool four times over six years (2016, 2018, 2020 and 2022) and across four habitat types (low relief stromatolites (LRS), high relief stromatolites (HRS), sand and seagrass). We aimed to assess the fish assemblages and examine temporal differences in the structure and size classes in relation to changing habitats. A total of 44,649 fish from 79 species (46 Families) were recorded from 624 stereo-BRUVs deployments. Three species dominated the fish assemblage accounting for 60% of all fish recorded (<em>Atherinidae</em> spp 21%, <em>Helotes octolineatus</em> 20%, <em>Pentapodus vitta</em> 18%). The majority of fishes were either generalist invertebrate feeders (40%) or generalist carnivores (29%). Fish assemblage structure differed among years, habitats and site, although ‘year’ had minimal influence on the assemblage variation (2%) compared to ‘habitat’ (14%) and ‘site’ (26%). Across all four sampling years, the abundance and number of species of fish was consistently greatest within seagrass habitats, with the composition of these assemblages accounting for 65% of the variation between habitats. The commercially valuable <em>Chrysophrys auratus</em> showed evidence of growth to reproductive size and therefore may act as a potential source of larvae. Despite being a habitat suboptimal for many species, Hamelin Pool’s fish assemblages are stable in terms of their abundance and diversity. However, there are significant differences in the composition of assemblages between habitats, as well as variations in size distributions, suggesting this hypersaline environment supports fish growth and may facilitate replenishment of species fished in the wider Shark Bay area.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"319 ","pages":"Article 109277"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143777065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fatty acid analysis in an estuarine fish species to assess the health status of hydrosystems impacted by eutrophication and multistressors","authors":"Jennifer Laurent ,&nbsp;Fabienne Le Grand ,&nbsp;Antoine Bideau ,&nbsp;Iwan Le Berre ,&nbsp;Stéphane Le Floch ,&nbsp;Vianney Pichereau ,&nbsp;Jean Laroche","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109279","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109279","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The originality of this research lies in the use of fish lipid markers, which highlights the importance of fatty acid profiles as biomarkers to evaluate the health status of estuarine systems subject to eutrophication or multistress. In the present paper, we developed an approach combining lipid class and fatty acid analyses on juvenile European flounder muscle, watershed geographic metrics and pollutant levels in sediments, to assess the ecological status of seven small estuaries mainly impacted by agricultural activities in the watersheds. The estuaries showed contrasted fatty acids compositions in flounder muscle. Marked differences in polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) proportions, particularly docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) and docosapentaenoic acid (DPA), reflected not only the state of cell membranes but also variations in the quality of food sources. High levels of PUFA were associated with better ecological conditions, while reduced PUFA availability was clearly linked to eutrophication and multistress. In addition, higher flounder lipid reserve content was clearly identified in the system highly impacted by fish farming, reflecting a contamination of the entire trophic chain by aquaculture waste.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"319 ","pages":"Article 109279"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143785711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comprehensive insights into Pseudo-nitzschia research in the Adriatic Sea: Diverse perspectives and emerging discoveries","authors":"Timotej Turk Dermastia ,&nbsp;Janja Francé ,&nbsp;Jasna Arapov ,&nbsp;Francesca Neri ,&nbsp;Stefano Accoroni ,&nbsp;Cecilia Totti ,&nbsp;Federica Cerino ,&nbsp;Maria Immacolata Ferrante ,&nbsp;Fabrizio Bernardi Aubry ,&nbsp;Stefania Finotto ,&nbsp;Jelena Godrijan ,&nbsp;Dragana Drakulović ,&nbsp;Patricija Mozetič","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109283","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109283","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><em>Pseudo-nitzschia,</em> a globally distributed diatom genus, dominates phytoplankton communities in biomass and abundance, with some species producing domoic acid (DA), the neurotoxin responsible for Amnesic Shellfish Poisoning (ASP). The Adriatic Sea has become a hub of <em>Pseudo-nitzschia</em> research over the past 15 years. This review synthesizes multidisciplinary research across Adriatic sub-basins, integrating morphological, genetic, and ecological data. While ASP has never been documented in the Adriatic, DA was occasionally detected in shellfish. The production was linked to toxic species such as <em>P. multistriata</em>, <em>P. calliantha</em>, and <em>P. galaxiae</em>, which were found to produce DA in cultures from Adriatic isolates. Despite progress, LM-based monitoring remains prevalent, underestimating species complexity and toxigenic potential. Electron microscopy and genetic barcoding have nonetheless revealed new insights into the species composition of this genus in Adriatic. A total of 14 species have been reported so far with prominent regional disparity: the northern and middle Adriatic host higher diversity, contrasting with the southern Adriatic, where only five species were confirmed, and research remains sparse. Seasonal dynamics show summer-autumn peaks in abundance, though interannual and regional variability is notable. We present recent advances from the Adriatic including the discovery of <em>Pseudo-nitzschia</em>-infecting viruses, population genomic insights in <em>P. multistriata</em>, and metabarcoding-driven revelations of cryptic diversity. Finally, we highlight critical knowledge gaps, including the ecological drivers of toxicity and the impacts of oligotrophication on community shifts. Collaborative, high-resolution methodologies (e.g., omics, automated imaging) are urged to address emerging challenges under climate change and anthropogenic pressures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"319 ","pages":"Article 109283"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143739586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Microbial community structure and functional diversity affected by soil depth, tidal levels, and stand ages in restored Sonneratia apetala mangroves","authors":"Wenxiao Su ,&nbsp;Zeyu Lin ,&nbsp;Yiyuan Lin ,&nbsp;Genmei Lin ,&nbsp;Long Wei ,&nbsp;Meilin Wu ,&nbsp;Jianxiang Feng","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109276","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109276","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The artificial planting of <em>Sonneratia apetala</em> is commonly used for mangrove restoration, but the impacts of planting duration and tidal levels on soil microbial communities remain unclear. This study investigated soil microbial communities in unvegetated mudflats and <em>S. apetala</em> stands (12- and 18-year-old) at two tidal levels on Qi'ao Island, Zhuhai. Surface (0–10 cm) and bottom (40–60 cm) soils were analyzed via 16S rRNA gene sequencing and Biolog-ECO assays to assess microbial composition and functions. Results showed that microbial diversity in surface soils significantly increased with restoration duration, driven by elevated the soil total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), and microbial biomass carbon (MBC). TOC, TN, and MBC shaped microbial community changes in surface soils, while dissolved organic carbon (WSOC) and nitrate nitrogen (NO₃⁻-N) influenced bottom soils. Firmicutes and Campylobacterota dominated subsoils, while Proteobacteria and Chloroflexi prevailed in surface soils. Functional predictions indicated methanol oxidation and chitinolysis were enriched in surface soils, whereas subsoils exhibited enhanced potential for nitrification and anaerobic ammonia oxidation. These findings reveal how planting ages and tidal gradients regulate soil microbial communities during mangrove restoration. These insights support sustainable <em>S. apetala</em> rehabilitation and improved mangrove rehabilitation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"319 ","pages":"Article 109276"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143746951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A fuel-cell-type seabed-level sensor for monitoring bathymetric evolution","authors":"Kyeongmin Kim ,&nbsp;Tadashi Hibino ,&nbsp;Yasuyuki Nakagawa","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109281","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109281","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study presents the development and application of a fuel-cell-type (FCT) sensor to monitor seabed levels in sandy and cohesive sediment environments. The FCT sensor, which utilizes dissolved oxygen as a fuel, enables sensitive bathymetry monitoring via a spontaneous electric current. Laboratory experiments demonstrated that the current, internal resistance, and redox potential are key parameters for identifying sediment texture (sand vs. mud) and estimating the bulk density of the mud. Field tests validated the ability of the sensor to monitor changes in muddy sand seabed levels in near real time. The robust performance of the FCT sensor under various conditions appears to enable its application for automated and continuous monitoring of seabed evolution and infrastructure stability in coastal and marine environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"319 ","pages":"Article 109281"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143725888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can we accurately extract ocean tides from satellite altimeter records with substantial missing values in shallow bays?","authors":"Haidong Pan ,&nbsp;Junchuan Sun ,&nbsp;Xiumin Gao ,&nbsp;Fei Teng ,&nbsp;Tengfei Xu ,&nbsp;Zexun Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109280","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109280","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tidal dynamics in coastal areas remain poorly understood, primarily due to the complexity of local topography and the scarcity of observational data. Although satellite altimeters have proven to be a powerful tool for providing comprehensive and accurate sea level observations across the global ocean, their effectiveness is highly limited in coastal regions due to land interference. Classical harmonic analysis (CHA) model employs ordinary least square (OLS) to estimate tidal parameters from coastal satellite altimeter records, suffering from the problem of over-fitting when the number of unknown tidal parameters is comparable to or more than the number of valid observations. In this paper, two regularization methods (i.e. ridge and Lasso regression) are utilized to replace OLS in the CHA model to address the issue of over-fitting and the interleaved Topex/Poseidon-Jason1 series is analyzed with substantial missing values in Liaodong Bay, China. Practical experiments unequivocally demonstrate the superiority of Lasso regression to ridge regression and OLS. The spatially-averaged errors of OLS, ridge regression and Lasso regression are 5.43 cm, 3.99 cm and 2.84 cm, respectively. Moreover, tidal parameters obtained by OLS display significant unnatural spatial discontinuities along the satellite track, which are substantially diminished by Lasso regression. It is noteworthy that tidal constituents with small amplitudes obtained by Lasso regression may be unreliable due to residual over-fitting. Overall, CHA with Lasso regression is a method that can be widely applied to analyze various types of sea level records with substantial missing values in shallow bays.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"319 ","pages":"Article 109280"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143746950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-term assessment of forcing conditions affecting the hydrodynamic structure of a stratified sea strait","authors":"Mehmet Ozturk,&nbsp;Furkan Altas,&nbsp;Cihan Sahin","doi":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109265","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109265","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sea straits are waterways characterized by stratified flow, in which the upper layer flow is driven by barotropic forcing while the lower layer flow is driven by the density difference between adjacent basins. The flow structures of a strait and the water bodies they are connected to are highly dependent on meteorological and hydrological conditions and change significantly as a result of extreme events in these conditions. The present study examines long-term variability in extreme meteorological and hydrological forcing conditions that control the hydrodynamic behavior of a sea strait, the Bosphorus, using 80-year (1931–2010) discharge data of the Danube River and 42-year (1979–2020) meteorological data. In addition to long-term trend analysis, extreme value analysis (EVA) was applied to both the maximum and minimum values of both parameters. In the Danube River discharges, trend directions have changed in successive 20-year periods from 1931 to 2010, but most of the trends are not significant except for the last 20 years of records. Extreme value analysis results indicate that both extreme maximum and minimum discharges are about 10 % greater in recent years (1971–2010) compared with earlier years (1931–1970). The wind conditions in the strait are less variable compared with freshwater discharges. However, the storm analysis indicates the occurrence of more energetic and short-lived storms in the Bosphorus in recent years with greater variability. The variation in extreme pressure differences is more notable, especially in the recent 20-year period. A 37 % decrease in minimum pressure difference, which means higher pressures at the southern entrance of the Bosphorus, indicates that extreme northward current events in the Bosphorus have decreased in recent years. This, combined with the increasing extreme river discharges, indicates a higher dominance of the brackish Black Sea water both in the hydrodynamics of the strait and the Sea of Marmara-northern Aegean Sea system in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50497,"journal":{"name":"Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science","volume":"319 ","pages":"Article 109265"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143767945","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}