Journal of Applied Probability最新文献

{"title":"JPR volume 60 issue 2 Cover and Back matter","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/jpr.2022.83","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jpr.2022.83","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50256,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Probability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47529835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"SIR epidemics driven by Feller processes","authors":"Matthieu Simon","doi":"10.1017/jpr.2023.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jpr.2023.2","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We consider a stochastic SIR (susceptible \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000$rightarrow$\u0000\u0000 \u0000 infective \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000$rightarrow$\u0000\u0000 \u0000 removed) model in which the infectious periods are modulated by a collection of independent and identically distributed Feller processes. Each infected individual is associated with one of these processes, the trajectories of which determine the duration of his infectious period, his contamination rate, and his type of removal (e.g. death or immunization). We use a martingale approach to derive the distribution of the final epidemic size and severity for this model and provide some general examples. Next, we focus on a single infected individual facing a given number of susceptibles, and we determine the distribution of his outcome (number of contaminations, severity, type of removal). Using a discrete-time formulation of the model, we show that this distribution also provides us with an alternative, more stable method to compute the final epidemic outcome distribution.","PeriodicalId":50256,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Probability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44878983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A large deviation theorem for a supercritical super-Brownian motion with absorption","authors":"Ya-Jie Zhu","doi":"10.1017/jpr.2023.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jpr.2023.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000\t <jats:p>We consider a one-dimensional superprocess with a supercritical local branching mechanism <jats:inline-formula>\u0000\t <jats:alternatives>\u0000\t\t<jats:inline-graphic xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\" mime-subtype=\"png\" xlink:href=\"S0021900223000013_inline1.png\" />\u0000\t\t<jats:tex-math>\u0000$psi$\u0000</jats:tex-math>\u0000\t </jats:alternatives>\u0000\t </jats:inline-formula>, where particles move as a Brownian motion with drift <jats:inline-formula>\u0000\t <jats:alternatives>\u0000\t\t<jats:inline-graphic xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\" mime-subtype=\"png\" xlink:href=\"S0021900223000013_inline2.png\" />\u0000\t\t<jats:tex-math>\u0000$-rho$\u0000</jats:tex-math>\u0000\t </jats:alternatives>\u0000\t </jats:inline-formula> and are killed when they reach the origin. It is known that the process survives with positive probability if and only if <jats:inline-formula>\u0000\t <jats:alternatives>\u0000\t\t<jats:inline-graphic xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\" mime-subtype=\"png\" xlink:href=\"S0021900223000013_inline3.png\" />\u0000\t\t<jats:tex-math>\u0000$rho<sqrt{2alpha}$\u0000</jats:tex-math>\u0000\t </jats:alternatives>\u0000\t </jats:inline-formula>, where <jats:inline-formula>\u0000\t <jats:alternatives>\u0000\t\t<jats:inline-graphic xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\" mime-subtype=\"png\" xlink:href=\"S0021900223000013_inline4.png\" />\u0000\t\t<jats:tex-math>\u0000$alpha=-psi'(0)$\u0000</jats:tex-math>\u0000\t </jats:alternatives>\u0000\t </jats:inline-formula>. When <jats:inline-formula>\u0000\t <jats:alternatives>\u0000\t\t<jats:inline-graphic xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\" mime-subtype=\"png\" xlink:href=\"S0021900223000013_inline5.png\" />\u0000\t\t<jats:tex-math>\u0000$rho<sqrt{2 alpha}$\u0000</jats:tex-math>\u0000\t </jats:alternatives>\u0000\t </jats:inline-formula>, Kyprianou <jats:italic>et al.</jats:italic> [18] proved that <jats:inline-formula>\u0000\t <jats:alternatives>\u0000\t\t<jats:inline-graphic xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\" mime-subtype=\"png\" xlink:href=\"S0021900223000013_inline6.png\" />\u0000\t\t<jats:tex-math>\u0000$lim_{tto infty}R_t/t =sqrt{2alpha}-rho$\u0000</jats:tex-math>\u0000\t </jats:alternatives>\u0000\t </jats:inline-formula> almost surely on the survival set, where <jats:inline-formula>\u0000\t <jats:alternatives>\u0000\t\t<jats:inline-graphic xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\" mime-subtype=\"png\" xlink:href=\"S0021900223000013_inline7.png\" />\u0000\t\t<jats:tex-math>\u0000$R_t$\u0000</jats:tex-math>\u0000\t </jats:alternatives>\u0000\t </jats:inline-formula> is the rightmost position of the support at time <jats:italic>t</jats:italic>. Motivated by this work, we investigate its large deviation, in other words, the convergence rate of <jats:inline-formula>\u0000\t <jats:alternatives>\u0000\t\t<jats:inline-graphic xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\" mime-subtype=\"png\" xlink:href=\"S0021900223000013_inline8.png\" />\u0000\t\t<jats:tex-math>\u0000$mathbb{P}_{delta_x} (R_t >gamma t+theta)$\u0000</jats:tex-math>\u0000\t </jats:alternatives>\u0000\t </jats:inline-formula> as <jats:inline-formula>\u0000\t <jats:alternatives>\u0000\t\t<jats:inline-graphic xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w","PeriodicalId":50256,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Probability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43817177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Large deviations of extremal eigenvalues of sample covariance matrices","authors":"Denise Uwamariya, Xiangfeng Yang","doi":"10.1017/jpr.2022.130","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jpr.2022.130","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000\t <jats:p>Large deviations of the largest and smallest eigenvalues of <jats:inline-formula>\u0000\t <jats:alternatives>\u0000\t\t<jats:inline-graphic xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\" mime-subtype=\"png\" xlink:href=\"S0021900222001309_inline1.png\" />\u0000\t\t<jats:tex-math>\u0000$mathbf{X}mathbf{X}^top/n$\u0000</jats:tex-math>\u0000\t </jats:alternatives>\u0000\t </jats:inline-formula> are studied in this note, where <jats:inline-formula>\u0000\t <jats:alternatives>\u0000\t\t<jats:inline-graphic xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\" mime-subtype=\"png\" xlink:href=\"S0021900222001309_inline2.png\" />\u0000\t\t<jats:tex-math>\u0000$mathbf{X}_{ptimes n}$\u0000</jats:tex-math>\u0000\t </jats:alternatives>\u0000\t </jats:inline-formula> is a <jats:inline-formula>\u0000\t <jats:alternatives>\u0000\t\t<jats:inline-graphic xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\" mime-subtype=\"png\" xlink:href=\"S0021900222001309_inline3.png\" />\u0000\t\t<jats:tex-math>\u0000$ptimes n$\u0000</jats:tex-math>\u0000\t </jats:alternatives>\u0000\t </jats:inline-formula> random matrix with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) sub-Gaussian entries. The assumption imposed on the dimension size <jats:italic>p</jats:italic> and the sample size <jats:italic>n</jats:italic> is <jats:inline-formula>\u0000\t <jats:alternatives>\u0000\t\t<jats:inline-graphic xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\" mime-subtype=\"png\" xlink:href=\"S0021900222001309_inline4.png\" />\u0000\t\t<jats:tex-math>\u0000$p=p(n)rightarrowinfty$\u0000</jats:tex-math>\u0000\t </jats:alternatives>\u0000\t </jats:inline-formula> with <jats:inline-formula>\u0000\t <jats:alternatives>\u0000\t\t<jats:inline-graphic xmlns:xlink=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink\" mime-subtype=\"png\" xlink:href=\"S0021900222001309_inline5.png\" />\u0000\t\t<jats:tex-math>\u0000$p(n)={mathrm{o}}(n)$\u0000</jats:tex-math>\u0000\t </jats:alternatives>\u0000\t </jats:inline-formula>. This study generalizes one result obtained in [3].</jats:p>","PeriodicalId":50256,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Probability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42613765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characterization theorems for pseudo cross-variograms","authors":"Christopher Dörr, M. Schlather","doi":"10.1017/jpr.2022.133","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jpr.2022.133","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Pseudo cross-variograms appear naturally in the context of multivariate Brown–Resnick processes, and are a useful tool for analysis and prediction of multivariate random fields. We give a necessary and sufficient criterion for a matrix-valued function to be a pseudo cross-variogram, and further provide a Schoenberg-type result connecting pseudo cross-variograms and multivariate correlation functions. By means of these characterizations, we provide extensions of the popular univariate space–time covariance model of Gneiting to the multivariate case.","PeriodicalId":50256,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Probability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48099626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Self-normalized Cramér moderate deviations for a supercritical Galton–Watson process","authors":"Xiequan Fan, Qi-Man Shao","doi":"10.1017/jpr.2022.134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jpr.2022.134","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Let $(Z_n)_{ngeq0}$ be a supercritical Galton–Watson process. Consider the Lotka–Nagaev estimator for the offspring mean. In this paper we establish self-normalized Cramér-type moderate deviations and Berry–Esseen bounds for the Lotka–Nagaev estimator. The results are believed to be optimal or near-optimal.","PeriodicalId":50256,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Probability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135223522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Non-reversible guided Metropolis kernel","authors":"K. Kamatani, Xiaolin Song","doi":"10.1017/jpr.2022.109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jpr.2022.109","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We construct a class of non-reversible Metropolis kernels as a multivariate extension of the guided-walk kernel proposed by Gustafson (Statist. Comput. 8, 1998). The main idea of our method is to introduce a projection that maps a state space to a totally ordered group. By using Haar measure, we construct a novel Markov kernel termed the Haar mixture kernel, which is of interest in its own right. This is achieved by inducing a topological structure to the totally ordered group. Our proposed method, the \u0000$Delta$\u0000 -guided Metropolis–Haar kernel, is constructed by using the Haar mixture kernel as a proposal kernel. The proposed non-reversible kernel is at least 10 times better than the random-walk Metropolis kernel and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo kernel for the logistic regression and a discretely observed stochastic process in terms of effective sample size per second.","PeriodicalId":50256,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Probability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48071905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Costa’s concavity inequality for dependent variables based on the multivariate Gaussian copula","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/jpr.2022.128","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jpr.2022.128","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 An extension of Shannon’s entropy power inequality when one of the summands is Gaussian was provided by Costa in 1985, known as Costa’s concavity inequality. We consider the additive Gaussian noise channel with a more realistic assumption, i.e. the input and noise components are not independent and their dependence structure follows the well-known multivariate Gaussian copula. Two generalizations for the first- and second-order derivatives of the differential entropy of the output signal for dependent multivariate random variables are derived. It is shown that some previous results in the literature are particular versions of our results. Using these derivatives, concavity of the entropy power, under certain mild conditions, is proved. Finally, special one-dimensional versions of our general results are described which indeed reveal an extension of the one-dimensional case of Costa’s concavity inequality to the dependent case. An illustrative example is also presented.","PeriodicalId":50256,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Probability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44975318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Berkelmans–Pries dependency function: A generic measure of dependence between random variables","authors":"Guus Berkelmans, S. Bhulai, R. D. van der Mei, Joris Pries","doi":"10.1017/jpr.2022.118","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jpr.2022.118","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Measuring and quantifying dependencies between random variables (RVs) can give critical insights into a dataset. Typical questions are: ‘Do underlying relationships exist?’, ‘Are some variables redundant?’, and ‘Is some target variable Y highly or weakly dependent on variable X?’ Interestingly, despite the evident need for a general-purpose measure of dependency between RVs, common practice is that most data analysts use the Pearson correlation coefficient to quantify dependence between RVs, while it is recognized that the correlation coefficient is essentially a measure for linear dependency only. Although many attempts have been made to define more generic dependency measures, there is no consensus yet on a standard, general-purpose dependency function. In fact, several ideal properties of a dependency function have been proposed, but without much argumentation. Motivated by this, we discuss and revise the list of desired properties and propose a new dependency function that meets all these requirements. This general-purpose dependency function provides data analysts with a powerful means to quantify the level of dependence between variables. To this end, we also provide Python code to determine the dependency function for use in practice.","PeriodicalId":50256,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Probability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48700970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Asymptotic persistence time formulae for multitype birth–death processes","authors":"F. Ball, D. Clancy","doi":"10.1017/jpr.2022.102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jpr.2022.102","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We consider a class of processes describing a population consisting of k types of individuals. The process is almost surely absorbed at the origin within finite time, and we study the expected time taken for such extinction to occur. We derive simple and precise asymptotic estimates for this expected persistence time, starting either from a single individual or from a quasi-equilibrium state, in the limit as a system size parameter N tends to infinity. Our process need not be a Markov process on \u0000$ {mathbb Z}_+^k$\u0000 ; we allow the possibility that individuals’ lifetimes may follow more general distributions than the exponential distribution.","PeriodicalId":50256,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Probability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44398001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}