arXiv - ECON - General Economics最新文献_第2页

A Market for Lemons? Strategic Directions for a Vigilant Application of Artificial Intelligence in Entrepreneurship Research 柠檬市场？在创业研究中谨慎应用人工智能的战略方向

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: arxiv-2409.08890

Martin Obschonka, Moren Levesque

{"title":"A Market for Lemons? Strategic Directions for a Vigilant Application of Artificial Intelligence in Entrepreneurship Research","authors":"Martin Obschonka, Moren Levesque","doi":"arxiv-2409.08890","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.08890","url":null,"abstract":"The rapid expansion of AI adoption (e.g., using machine learning, deep\u0000learning, or large language models as research methods) and the increasing\u0000availability of big data have the potential to bring about the most significant\u0000transformation in entrepreneurship scholarship the field has ever witnessed.\u0000This article makes a pressing meta-contribution by highlighting a significant\u0000risk of unproductive knowledge exchanges in entrepreneurship research amid the\u0000AI revolution. It offers strategies to mitigate this risk and provides guidance\u0000for future AI-based studies to enhance their collective impact and relevance.\u0000Drawing on Akerlof's renowned market-for-lemons concept, we identify the\u0000potential for significant knowledge asymmetries emerging from the field's\u0000evolution into its current landscape (e.g., complexities around construct\u0000validity, theory building, and research relevance). Such asymmetries are\u0000particularly deeply ingrained due to what we term the double-black-box puzzle,\u0000where the widely recognized black box nature of AI methods intersects with the\u0000black box nature of the entrepreneurship phenomenon driven by inherent\u0000uncertainty. As a result, these asymmetries could lead to an increase in\u0000suboptimal research products that go undetected, collectively creating a market\u0000for lemons that undermines the field's well-being, reputation, and impact.\u0000However, importantly, if these risks can be mitigated, the AI revolution could\u0000herald a new golden era for entrepreneurship research. We discuss the necessary\u0000actions to elevate the field to a higher level of AI resilience while\u0000steadfastly maintaining its foundational principles and core values.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"118 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142259577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Dynamic Link and Flow Prediction in Bank Transfer Networks 银行转账网络中的动态链接和流量预测

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: arxiv-2409.08718

Shu Takahashi, Kento Yamamoto, Shumpei Kobayashi, Ryoma Kondo, Ryohei Hisano

引用次数: 0

Contract Structure and Risk Aversion in Longevity Risk Transfers 长寿风险转移中的合同结构与风险规避

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: arxiv-2409.08914

David Landriault, Bin Li, Hong Li, Yuanyuan Zhang

{"title":"Contract Structure and Risk Aversion in Longevity Risk Transfers","authors":"David Landriault, Bin Li, Hong Li, Yuanyuan Zhang","doi":"arxiv-2409.08914","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.08914","url":null,"abstract":"This paper introduces an economic framework to assess optimal longevity risk\u0000transfers between institutions, focusing on the interactions between a buyer\u0000exposed to long-term longevity risk and a seller offering longevity protection.\u0000While most longevity risk transfers have occurred in the reinsurance sector,\u0000where global reinsurers provide long-term protections, the capital market for\u0000longevity risk transfer has struggled to gain traction, resulting in only a few\u0000short-term instruments. We investigate how differences in risk aversion between\u0000the two parties affect the equilibrium structure of longevity risk transfer\u0000contracts, contrasting `static' contracts that offer long-term protection with\u0000`dynamic' contracts that provide short-term, variable coverage. Our analysis\u0000shows that static contracts are preferred by more risk-averse buyers, while\u0000dynamic contracts are favored by more risk-averse sellers who are reluctant to\u0000commit to long-term agreements. When incorporating information asymmetry\u0000through ambiguity, we find that ambiguity can cause more risk-averse sellers to\u0000stop offering long-term contracts. With the assumption that global reinsurers,\u0000acting as sellers in the reinsurance sector and buyers in the capital market,\u0000are generally less risk-averse than other participants, our findings provide\u0000theoretical explanations for current market dynamics and suggest that\u0000short-term instruments offer valuable initial steps toward developing an\u0000efficient and active capital market for longevity risk transfer.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"77 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142259576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Economic impacts of a drastic gas supply shock and short-term mitigation strategies 天然气供应剧烈冲击的经济影响和短期缓解战略

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: arxiv-2409.07981

Anton Pichler, Jan Hurt, Tobias Reisch, Johannes Stangl, Stefan Thurner

{"title":"Economic impacts of a drastic gas supply shock and short-term mitigation strategies","authors":"Anton Pichler, Jan Hurt, Tobias Reisch, Johannes Stangl, Stefan Thurner","doi":"arxiv-2409.07981","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.07981","url":null,"abstract":"The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 entailed the threat of a\u0000drastic and sudden reduction of natural gas supply to the European Union. This\u0000paper presents a techno-economic analysis of the consequences of a sudden gas\u0000supply shock to Austria, one of the most dependent countries on imports of\u0000Russian gas. Our analysis comprises (a) a detailed assessment of supply and\u0000demand side countermeasures to mitigate the immediate shortfall in Russian gas\u0000imports, (b) a mapping of the net reduction in gas supply to industrial sectors\u0000to quantify direct economic shocks and expected relative reductions in gross\u0000output and (c) the quantification of higher-order economic impacts through\u0000using a dynamic out-of-equilibrium input-output model. Our results show that\u0000potential economic consequences can range from relatively mild to highly\u0000severe, depending on the implementation and success of counteracting mitigation\u0000measures. We find that securing alternative gas imports, storage management,\u0000and incentivizing fuel switching represent the most important short-term policy\u0000levers to mitigate the adverse impacts of a sudden import stop.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142192959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The first alumni donation in 1880 in Japan: social image and the open-academic record system 1880 年日本首次校友捐赠：社会形象与开放式学籍系统

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: arxiv-2409.08415

Eiji Yamamura

{"title":"The first alumni donation in 1880 in Japan: social image and the open-academic record system","authors":"Eiji Yamamura","doi":"arxiv-2409.08415","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.08415","url":null,"abstract":"In 1880, Keio, a private school in Japan, was in jeopardy of being closed. To\u0000cope with the situation, the school first created a fundraising campaign during\u0000the 18801-90 period. The school was established in 1857, and since 1861, the\u0000list covering all students academic record has been distributed not only to\u0000teachers but also to all students. Individual-level historical academic record\u0000was integrated with the list of contributors. Using the data, we compared\u0000persons who had learned in Keio before and after the system was introduced. The\u0000main findings are presented as follows. first, graduates who share the academic\u0000record are more likely to contribute, and their amount of donation is larger;\u0000second, the class size is negatively correlated with the likelihood of\u0000contribution and with its amount; and third, academic performance, as shown in\u0000the list, is positively correlated with the likelihood of contribution but not\u0000with the amount of donation, using a sub-sample of those who shared the list.\u0000The introduction of the system strengthened the community network and role of\u0000social image shared by the members. This resulted in a successful fundraising\u0000for the school, an unprecedented feat in the history of Japan.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"77 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142259579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Impact of Large Language Models on Open-source Innovation: Evidence from GitHub Copilot 大型语言模型对开源创新的影响：来自 GitHub Copilot 的证据

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: arxiv-2409.08379

Doron Yeverechyahu, Raveesh Mayya, Gal Oestreicher-Singer

{"title":"The Impact of Large Language Models on Open-source Innovation: Evidence from GitHub Copilot","authors":"Doron Yeverechyahu, Raveesh Mayya, Gal Oestreicher-Singer","doi":"arxiv-2409.08379","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.08379","url":null,"abstract":"Generative AI (GenAI) has been shown to enhance individual productivity in a\u0000guided setting. While it is also likely to transform processes in a\u0000collaborative work setting, it is unclear what trajectory this transformation\u0000will follow. Collaborative environment is characterized by a blend of\u0000origination tasks that involve building something from scratch and iteration\u0000tasks that involve refining on others' work. Whether GenAI affects these two\u0000aspects of collaborative work and to what extent is an open empirical question.\u0000We study this question within the open-source development landscape, a prime\u0000example of collaborative innovation, where contributions are voluntary and\u0000unguided. Specifically, we focus on the launch of GitHub Copilot in October\u00002021 and leverage a natural experiment in which GitHub Copilot (a\u0000programming-focused LLM) selectively rolled out support for Python, but not for\u0000R. We observe a significant jump in overall contributions, suggesting that\u0000GenAI effectively augments collaborative innovation in an unguided setting.\u0000Interestingly, Copilot's launch increased maintenance-related contributions,\u0000which are mostly iterative tasks involving building on others' work,\u0000significantly more than code-development contributions, which are mostly\u0000origination tasks involving standalone contributions. This disparity was\u0000exacerbated in active projects with extensive coding activity, raising concerns\u0000that, as GenAI models improve to accommodate richer context, the gap between\u0000origination and iterative solutions may widen. We discuss practical and policy\u0000implications to incentivize high-value innovative solutions.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142259580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An Experimental Study of Competitive Market Behavior Through LLMs 通过法律硕士对市场竞争行为的实验研究

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: arxiv-2409.08357

Jingru Jia, Zehua Yuan

引用次数: 0

Un índice discreto sensible a la desigualdad 对不平等敏感的离散指数

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: arxiv-2409.07538

Francisco José Zamudio Sánchez, Javier Jiménez Machorro, Roxana Arana Ovalle, Hildegardo Martínez Silverio

{"title":"Un índice discreto sensible a la desigualdad","authors":"Francisco José Zamudio Sánchez, Javier Jiménez Machorro, Roxana Arana Ovalle, Hildegardo Martínez Silverio","doi":"arxiv-2409.07538","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.07538","url":null,"abstract":"This paper introduces the Relative Inequality Index at the Maximum (IDRM), a\u0000novel and intuitive measure designed to capture inequality within a population,\u0000such as income inequality. The index is based on the idea that individuals\u0000experience varying levels of inequality depending on their position within the\u0000distribution, particularly with respect to those at the top. The key assumption\u0000is that for individuals in lower positions, inequalities referenced to the top\u0000positions have greater impact on their well-being and the inequality relative\u0000to maximum is the most critical. The IDRM fulfills desirable theoretical\u0000properties which were used for its evaluation and comparison against widely\u0000accepted measures in inequality literature. From this perspective, the IDRM is\u0000shown to be as robust as traditional measures and outperforms the Gini and\u0000Dalton indices by satisfying eight out of nine key properties, including\u0000decomposability across population subgroups. In a comparative analysis using\u0000income data from 58 countries and microdata from Mexico, with the Gini, Theil,\u0000and Atkinson indices as benchmarks, the IDRM demonstrates superior consistency,\u0000sensitivity to inequality, reduced bias in grouped data, and enhanced\u0000precision. This index reflects the varying forms of income distribution,\u0000showing heightened sensitivity to the magnitude of inequality.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142192944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Mismeasure of Weather: Using Remotely Sensed Earth Observation Data in Economic Context 天气的误测：在经济背景下使用遥感地球观测数据

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: arxiv-2409.07506

Anna Josephson, Jeffrey D. Michler, Talip Kilic, Siobhan Murray

引用次数: 0

Mechanisms for belief elicitation without ground truth 没有基本事实的信念激发机制

arXiv - ECON - General Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: arxiv-2409.07277

Niklas Valentin Lehmann

引用次数: 0