Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society最新文献

{"title":"Evaluation of near‐surface and boundary‐layer meteorological conditions that support cold‐fog formation using Cold Fog Amongst Complex Terrain field campaign observations","authors":"Rebecca Lynn Beal, Zhaoxia Pu, Eric Pardyjak, Sebastian Hoch, Ismail Gultepe","doi":"10.1002/qj.4818","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4818","url":null,"abstract":"Cold fog refers to a type of fog that forms when the temperature is below 0°C. It can be composed of liquid, ice, and mixed‐phase fog particles. Cold fog happens frequently over mountainous terrain in the cold season, but it is difficult to predict. Using observations from the Cold Fog Amongst Complex Terrain (CFACT) field campaign conducted in Heber Valley, Utah, in the western United States during January and February of 2022, this study investigates the meteorological conditions in the surface and boundary layers that support the formation of wintertime ephemeral cold fog in a local area of small‐scale mountain valleys. It is found that fog formation is susceptible to subtleties in forcing conditions and is supported by several factors: (1) established high pressure over the Great Basin with associated local clear skies, calm winds, and a stable boundary layer; (2) near‐surface inversion with saturation near the surface and strong moisture gradient in the boundary layer; (3) warm (above‐freezing) daytime air temperature with a large diurnal range, accompanied with warm soil temperatures during the daytime; (4) a period of increased turbulence kinetic energy (above 0.5 m<jats:sup>2</jats:sup>·s<jats:sup>−2</jats:sup>), followed by calm conditions throughout the fog's duration; and (5) supersaturation with respect to ice. Then, the field observations and identified supporting factors for fog formation were utilized to evaluate high‐resolution (˜400 m horizontal grid spacing) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations. Results show that the WRF model accurately simulates the mesoscale conditions facilitating cold‐fog formation but misses some critical surface and atmospheric boundary conditions. The overall results from this paper indicate that these identified factors that support fog formation are vital to accurately forecasting cold‐fog events. At the same time, they are also critical fields for the NWP model validation.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142188930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Generation of state‐dependent ensemble perturbations based on time‐varying seawater density for GloSea5 initialization","authors":"Jeong‐Gil Lee, Yoo‐Geun Ham, Ji‐Gwang Kim, Pil‐Hun Chang","doi":"10.1002/qj.4833","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4833","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we developed a flow‐dependent oceanic initialization system for initializing the oceanic temperature and salinity in the Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5). Our algorithm overcomes the limitation of stationary perturbations for Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) by spreading observed information along isopycnal lines to create three‐dimensional snapshot density states. The proposed algorithm, which we call state‐dependent ensemble‐based EnOI (SD‐EnOI), takes into account changes in the background error covariance over time without relying on ensemble model simulations. To evaluate the quality of the oceanic initial conditions (ICs) produced by SD‐EnOI, we compared them with those generated by the Global Ocean Data Assimilation and Prediction System version 1 (GODAPS1) operated by the Korea Meteorological Agency (KMA) throughout January 2017 to December 2017. Our findings show that the thermal construction of the SD‐EnOI ICs is more realistic than that of GODAPS1, particularly in the tropical Pacific region. The strong warm bias in sea surface temperature (SST) and the shallow mixed‐layer depth bias observed in the GODAPS1 ICs are not shown in SD‐EnOI. Due to the more realistic oceanic thermal structure present in the SD‐EnOI ICs, their use in retrospective forecast experiments resulted in a systematic reduction in climatological SST drift in the central‐eastern Pacific for forecasts up to four lead months compared to using GODAPS1 ICs. This demonstrates the significant impact of the initialization process on the quality of dynamical seasonal forecasts.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142188931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Potential‐temperature variance budget in a saturated coastal‐fog environment","authors":"F. Barbano, Eric Pardyjak","doi":"10.1002/qj.4827","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4827","url":null,"abstract":"In this work, we explore the intricacies of the potential‐temperature variance budget in coastal fog. We propose an improvement to the theoretical framework of the budget, whereby we include the heat exchange due to water‐phase changes. We then show this framework's consistency with a real‐world case study from the Coastal Fog (C‐FOG) Research Program. Results show that the presence of intermittent energy bursts is driven by the sudden turbulent injection of heat into the environment caused by the condensation of water vapour, and the improved theoretical framework proves satisfactory in detailing the observed process. The heat excess is transported vertically, creating a two‐term balance of high‐order moments. A bulk parametrization of this balance is also proposed to provide a simplified representation of the phase‐change process and suggest that it could be used for operational purposes. Finally, the length‐scales of the processes are evaluated from the parametrizations. The analysis indicates that the scales of the phase change of water vapour are consistent with the buoyancy production and Taylor scales.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141920351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The fractions skill score for ensemble forecast verification","authors":"Tobias Necker, Ludwig Wolfgruber, Lukas Kugler, Martin Weissmann, Manfred Dorninger, Stefano Serafin","doi":"10.1002/qj.4824","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4824","url":null,"abstract":"The fractions skill score (FSS) is a neighbourhood verification method originally designed to verify deterministic forecasts of binary events. Previous studies employed different approaches for computing an ensemble‐based FSS for probabilistic forecast verification. We show that the formulation of an ensemble‐based FSS substantially affects verification results. Comparing four possible approaches, we determine how different ensemble‐based FSS variants depend on ensemble size, neighbourhood size, and forecast event frequency of occurrence. We demonstrate that only one ensemble‐based FSS, which we call the probabilistic FSS (pFSS), is well behaved and reasonably dependent on ensemble size. Furthermore, we derive a relationship to describe how the pFSS behaves with ensemble size. The proposed relationship is similar to a known result for the Brier skill score. Our study uses high‐resolution 1000‐member ensemble precipitation forecasts from a high‐impact weather period. The large ensemble enables us to study the influence of ensemble and neighbourhood size on forecast skill by deriving probabilistic skilful spatial scales.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141922513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increasing frequency and precipitation intensity of convective storms in the Peruvian Central Andes: Projections from convection‐permitting regional climate simulations","authors":"Yongjie Huang, Ming Xue, Xiao‐Ming Hu, Elinor Martin, H. Novoa, Renee A. McPherson, Changhai Liu, Mengye Chen, Yang Hong, Andres Perez, Isaac Yanqui Morales, José Luis Ticona Jara, Auria Julieta Flores Luna","doi":"10.1002/qj.4820","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4820","url":null,"abstract":"To explore the potential impacts of climate change on precipitation and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the Peruvian Central Andes, a region with complex terrain, two future convection‐permitting regional climate simulations and one historical one are conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. All simulations adopt consistent model configurations and two nested domains with grid spacings of 15 and 3 km covering the entire South America and the Peruvian Central Andes, respectively. The historical run, spanning 2014–2019, is driven by ERA5 reanalysis, and the future simulations, covering the period 2070–2080, are driven by a bias‐corrected global dataset derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble under the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 emission scenarios. Results show geographically dependent changes in annual precipitation, with a consistent rise in the frequency of intense hourly precipitation across all regions examined. The western Amazon Basin shows a decrease in annual precipitation, while increases exist in parts of the Peruvian west coast and the east slope of the Andes under both future scenarios. In the warming scenarios, there is an overall increase in the frequency, precipitation intensity, and size of MCSs east of the Andes, with MCS precipitation volume increasing by up to ∼22.2%. Despite consistently enhanced synoptic‐scale low‐level jets in future scenarios, changes in low‐level dynamic convergence are inhomogeneous and predominantly influence annual precipitation changes. The increased convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN), and precipitable water (PW) in a warming climate suppress weak convection, while fostering a more unstable and moisture‐rich atmosphere, facilitating more intense convection and the formation and intensification of heavy precipitation‐producing MCSs. The study highlights the value of convection‐permitting climate simulations in projecting future severe weather hazards and informing climate adaptation strategies, especially in regions characterized by complex terrain.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141926524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamics of May ‘onset’ of Indian summer monsoon over Northeast India","authors":"Simanta Das, Dhruba Jyoti Goswami, R. Mahanta, Prolay Saha, B. Goswami","doi":"10.1002/qj.4828","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4828","url":null,"abstract":"Acknowledging the prolonged duration of the rainy season in Northeast India (NEI) compared to Central India, the official onset of the Indian summer monsoon over NEI is traditionally marked around 5 June, with May rainfall categorized as ‘pre‐monsoon’. However, our study reveals that May rainfall in NEI occurs in active/break spells driven by persistent synoptic‐scale systems, contributing to a significant monsoon heat source during this period. Through an objective analysis, we determine that the climatological ‘onset’ in NEI actually occurs around 18 May, with withdrawal around 14 October, resulting in an extended rainy season of approximately 150 days. The enigma of the May onset, while the Intertropical Convergence Zone remains proximate to the equator, is addressed by identifying a conducive climate in May. This climate is characterized by low‐level cyclonic vorticity over the region, influenced by the interannual strengthening (weakening) by the Atlantic Niño (El Niño). The introduction of potential vorticity from extratropical transient Rossby waves in May significantly amplifies low‐level cyclonic vorticity by 3–4 times, acting as a catalyst for the monsoon onset in NEI. Furthermore, a 5–6 times intensification of northward moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal sustains the monsoon heat source post onset. The May onset is made feasible by the uplifting of low‐level cyclonic winds, facilitated by the horseshoe‐shaped orography around the Brahmaputra valley. This process is complemented by an increased local moisture content resulting from evapotranspiration. Our findings challenge conventional notions by demonstrating that a component of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in NEI is not directly related to the Intertropical Convergence Zone. This challenges the fundamental definition of the South Asian Monsoon and calls for a reassessment of the prevalent belief that the Indian monsoon season is confined to June–September in NEI.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141927218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Large model biases in the Pacific centre of the Northern Annular Mode due to exaggerated variability of the Aleutian Low","authors":"Simon H. Lee, Lorenzo M. Polvani","doi":"10.1002/qj.4825","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4825","url":null,"abstract":"The Northern Annular Mode (NAM) is traditionally defined as the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of mean sea‐level pressure (MSLP) anomalies during winter. Previous studies have shown that the Pacific centre‐of‐action of the NAM is typically more amplified in models than in reanalysis. Here, we analyse the NAM in hindcasts from nine seasonal prediction models over 1993/1994–2016/2017. In all the models, the Pacific centre‐of‐action is much larger than in reanalysis over that period, during which the NAM and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are almost indistinguishable. As a result, the NAM in the models is correlated with Aleutian Low variability around four times more strongly than in reanalysis. We show that this discrepancy can be explained primarily by the amplitude of Aleutian Low variability, which is on average 17% higher in models than in reanalysis, with a secondary effect from a stronger correlation between the Aleutian Low and NAO. When the NAM is computed using zonally averaged MSLP, the Aleutian Low amplitude does not influence the pattern directly. Instead, the amplitude of the Pacific centre‐of‐action is governed primarily by the correlation between the Aleutian Low and NAO, reducing the apparent Pacific biases in models. While the two methods yield almost identical results in reanalysis, the large Aleutian Low biases result in differences when applied to model data. Modifying the MSLP statistically to alter the Aleutian Low amplitude reveals that the spatial pattern of the traditionally defined NAM is highly sensitive to Aleutian Low variability, even without modifying the correlation between the Aleutian Low and NAO. Hence, the NAM in models may not be as biased as the traditional method would suggest. We therefore conclude that the traditional EOF method is unsuitable for defining the NAM in the presence of highly amplified Aleutian Low variability, and encourage the use of the zonal‐mean method.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141948991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influences on North‐Atlantic summer climate from the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation","authors":"Jeff R. Knight, Adam A. Scaife","doi":"10.1002/qj.4826","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4826","url":null,"abstract":"Seasonal‐range predictability of summer climate in northwestern Europe is generally considered to be low. This is an increasing issue given the worsening impact of summer heatwaves, droughts and intense convective rainfall in a rapidly changing climate. In wintertime, predictive skill in the region is derived from a variety of sources, not least teleconnections with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Summer ENSO teleconnections, however, are often considered to be negligible. In this paper, we revisit the topic of summer teleconnections between ENSO and the North Atlantic‐European region. We build on previous work identifying upper tropospheric responses to tropical forcing, since dynamical teleconnections are most apparent at this level. Our results confirm that significantly increased geopotential heights are found stretching over the North‐Atlantic region and into western Europe when La Niña conditions are prevalent during summer. This pattern is part of the previously identified ‘circumglobal’ pattern of wider northern‐hemisphere height changes. We then look for these responses in a range of climate models used in operational seasonal prediction. While parts of the circumglobal pattern are weakly present, none of them produce the response seen over the North Atlantic, even when the effect of sampling on the observed teleconnection is accounted for. We additionally estimate the contribution of the previous (wintertime) phase of ENSO on the following summer. We find a significant delayed response, particularly in heights, to the earlier phase. The combination of the delayed and current responses gives height anomalies that are larger, on average, when ENSO changes phase from winter to summer. Finally, we show that a modest level of regional prediction skill from ENSO does exist. There is a contribution to skill in heights from the previous ENSO phase, but the equivalent contribution to the skill of zonal winds is smaller.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141948983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spectral scaling of unstably stratified atmospheric flows: Turbulence anisotropy and the low‐frequency spread","authors":"Claudine Charrondière, Ivana Stiperski","doi":"10.1002/qj.4811","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4811","url":null,"abstract":"Unstable surface‐layer velocity and temperature spectra, scaled using inertial subrange properties and Monin–Obukhov similarity theory, have been known to show a notable spread in low frequencies. Here, a large ensemble of 14 datasets, over relatively simple (from flat and homogeneous terrain to gentle slopes or valley floor) and very complex mountainous terrain (steep slopes, crater rim, mountain tops), is used to assess the reasons for this low‐frequency behaviour. Turbulence anisotropy is shown to be the primary factor accounting for the spread in the spectral density at the largest scales and the spectral peak position of streamwise and spanwise velocity spectra. On the other hand, the low‐frequency behaviour of surface‐normal spectra is dominated by stability effects, whereas for temperature spectra turbulence anisotropy and stability play a similar role. Using a combination of scaling relations for temperature and velocity variances as well as dissipation of turbulence kinetic energy and half the temperature variance, and of a semi‐empirical model provided in the literature, we are able to describe the behaviour of the velocity and temperature spectra with only turbulence anisotropy and stability as input parameters. These observations are valid over both simple and complex mountainous terrain, although variability of the largest scales of complex‐terrain datasets highlights the effect of processes other than turbulence anisotropy or stability. Finally, we provide some insights into the scalewise nature of anisotropic eddies under different stabilities.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141948984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of free tropospheric turbulence parametrisation on a sheared tropical cyclone","authors":"Amethyst A. Johnson, Juliane Schwendike, Andrew N. Ross, Adrian Lock, John M. Edwards, Jeffrey D. Kepert","doi":"10.1002/qj.4823","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4823","url":null,"abstract":"The turbulent transport of momentum, heat, and moisture can impact tropical cyclone intensity. However, representing subgrid‐scale turbulence accurately in numerical weather prediction models is challenging due to a lack of observational data. To address this issue, a case study of Hurricane <jats:italic>Maria</jats:italic> was conducted to analyse the influence of different free tropospheric turbulence parametrisations on sheared tropical cyclones. The study used the current Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) parametrisation, as well as a parametrisation scheme with significantly reduced free tropospheric mixing length. Convection‐permitting ensemble simulations were performed for both mixing schemes at two initialisation times (four 18‐member ensembles in total), revealing an improvement in the intensity forecasts of Hurricane <jats:italic>Maria</jats:italic> when the mixing length was decreased in the free troposphere. By implementing this change, the less diffuse simulations presented a drier mid‐level. The resolved downward transport of drier air from the mid‐levels into the inflow layer (so‐called “downdraft ventilation”) was thus more effective in reducing the storm's intensity. In contrast to earlier studies, where decreasing the diffusivity in the boundary layer intensified the storm, we show that decreasing the free tropospheric diffusivity can weaken the storm by enhancing shear‐related weakening processes. While this study was performed using the MetUM, the findings highlight the general importance of considering turbulence parametrisation, and show that changes in diffusivity can have different impacts on storm intensity depending on the environment and where the changes are applied.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141948982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}