Theoretical Population Biology最新文献

{"title":"On multi-type Cannings models and multi-type exchangeable coalescents","authors":"Martin Möhle","doi":"10.1016/j.tpb.2024.02.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tpb.2024.02.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A multi-type neutral Cannings population model with migration and fixed subpopulation sizes is analyzed. Under appropriate conditions, as all subpopulation sizes tend to infinity, the ancestral process, properly time-scaled, converges to a multi-type coalescent sharing the exchangeability and consistency property. The proof gains from coalescent theory for single-type Cannings models and from decompositions of transition probabilities into parts concerning reproduction and migration respectively. The following section deals with a different but closely related multi-type Cannings model with mutation and fixed total population size but stochastically varying subpopulation sizes. The latter model is analyzed forward and backward in time with an emphasis on its behavior as the total population size tends to infinity. Forward in time, multi-type limiting branching processes arise for large population size. Its backward structure and related open problems are briefly discussed.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":49437,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Population Biology","volume":"156 ","pages":"Pages 103-116"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040580924000145/pdfft?md5=72409ec57f40736e3991c39dcda2e229&pid=1-s2.0-S0040580924000145-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139898353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing mutualistic metacommunity capacity by integrating spatial and interaction networks","authors":"Marc Ohlmann ,&nbsp;François Munoz ,&nbsp;François Massol ,&nbsp;Wilfried Thuiller","doi":"10.1016/j.tpb.2024.01.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tpb.2024.01.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We develop a spatially realistic model of mutualistic metacommunities that exploits the joint structure of spatial and interaction networks. Assuming that all species have the same colonisation and extinction parameters, this model exhibits a sharp transition between stable non-null equilibrium states and a global extinction state. This behaviour allows defining a threshold on colonisation/extinction parameters for the long-term metacommunity persistence. This threshold, the ‘metacommunity capacity’, extends the metapopulation capacity concept and can be calculated from the spatial and interaction networks without needing to simulate the whole dynamics. In several applications we illustrate how the joint structure of the spatial and the interaction networks affects metacommunity capacity. It results that a weakly modular spatial network and a power-law degree distribution of the interaction network provide the most favourable configuration for the long-term persistence of a mutualistic metacommunity. Our model that encodes several explicit ecological assumptions should pave the way for a larger exploration of spatially realistic metacommunity models involving multiple interaction types.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":49437,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Population Biology","volume":"156 ","pages":"Pages 22-39"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139467286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bernoulli factories and duality in Wright–Fisher and Allen–Cahn models of population genetics","authors":"Jere Koskela ,&nbsp;Krzysztof Łatuszyński ,&nbsp;Dario Spanò","doi":"10.1016/j.tpb.2024.01.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tpb.2024.01.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Mathematical models of genetic evolution often come in pairs, connected by a so-called duality relation. The most seminal example are the Wright–Fisher diffusion and the Kingman coalescent, where the former describes the stochastic evolution of neutral allele frequencies in a large population forwards in time, and the latter describes the genetic ancestry of randomly sampled individuals from the population backwards in time. As well as providing a richer description than either model in isolation, duality often yields equations satisfied by quantities of interest. We employ the so-called Bernoulli factory – a celebrated tool in simulation-based computing – to derive duality relations for broad classes of genetics models. As concrete examples, we present Wright–Fisher diffusions with general drift functions, and Allen–Cahn equations with general, nonlinear forcing terms. The drift and forcing functions can be interpreted as the action of frequency-dependent selection. To our knowledge, this work is the first time a connection has been drawn between Bernoulli factories and duality in models of population genetics.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":49437,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Population Biology","volume":"156 ","pages":"Pages 40-45"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040580924000091/pdfft?md5=11d8fea99a375718f32182fc8ea5ec4a&pid=1-s2.0-S0040580924000091-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139644681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On random conformity bias in cultural transmission of polychotomous traits","authors":"Kaleda K. Denton ,&nbsp;Uri Liberman ,&nbsp;Marcus W. Feldman","doi":"10.1016/j.tpb.2023.12.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tpb.2023.12.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Mathematical models of conformity and anti-conformity have commonly included a set of simplifying assumptions. For example, (1) there are <span><math><mrow><mi>m</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>2</mn></mrow></math></span> cultural variants in the population, (2) naive individuals observe the cultural variants of <span><math><mrow><mi>n</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>3</mn></mrow></math></span> adult “role models,” and (3) individuals’ levels of conformity or anti-conformity do not change over time. Three recent theoretical papers have shown that departures from each of these assumptions can produce new population dynamics. Here, we explore cases in which multiple, or all, of these assumptions are violated simultaneously: namely, in a population with <span><math><mi>m</mi></math></span> variants of a trait where conformity (or anti-conformity) occurs with respect to <span><math><mi>n</mi></math></span> role models, we study a model in which the conformity rates at each generation are random variables that are independent of the variant frequencies at that generation. For this model a class of symmetric constant equilibria exist, and it is possible that all of these equilibria are simultaneously stochastically locally stable. In such cases, the effect of initial conditions on subsequent evolutionary trajectories becomes very complicated.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":49437,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Population Biology","volume":"156 ","pages":"Pages 5-11"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040580923000825/pdfft?md5=d09e55e4173f428cb94f39e6d8b55695&pid=1-s2.0-S0040580923000825-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138992654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Clade size distribution under neutral evolutionary models","authors":"Antonio Di Nunzio,&nbsp;Filippo Disanto","doi":"10.1016/j.tpb.2024.02.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tpb.2024.02.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Given a labeled tree topology <span><math><mi>t</mi></math></span>, consider a population <span><math><mi>P</mi></math></span> of <span><math><mi>k</mi></math></span> leaves chosen among those of <span><math><mi>t</mi></math></span>. The <em>clade</em> of <span><math><mi>P</mi></math></span> is the minimal subtree of <span><math><mi>t</mi></math></span> containing <span><math><mi>P</mi></math></span> and its size is given by the number of leaves in the clade. When <span><math><mi>t</mi></math></span> is selected under the Yule or uniform distribution among the labeled topologies of size <span><math><mi>n</mi></math></span>, we study the “clade size” random variable determining closed formulas for its probability mass function, its mean, and its variance. Our calculations show that for large <span><math><mi>n</mi></math></span> the clade size tends to be smaller under the uniform model than under the Yule model, with a larger variability in the first scenario for values of <span><math><mrow><mi>k</mi><mo>≥</mo><mn>5</mn></mrow></math></span>. We apply our probability formulas to investigate set-theoretic relationships between the clades of two populations in a random tree, determining how likely one clade is contained in or it is equal to the other. Our study relates to earlier calculations for the probability that under the Yule model the clade size of <span><math><mi>P</mi></math></span> equals the size of <span><math><mi>P</mi></math></span> – that is, the population <span><math><mi>P</mi></math></span> forms a monophyletic group – and extends known results for the probability that the minimal (non-trivial) clade containing a random taxon has a given size.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":49437,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Population Biology","volume":"156 ","pages":"Pages 93-102"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139749306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Biographical sketch: Freddy Bugge Christiansen","authors":"Volker Loeschcke,&nbsp;Mikkel Heide Schierup","doi":"10.1016/j.tpb.2024.02.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tpb.2024.02.006","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49437,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Population Biology","volume":"156 ","pages":"Page 130"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139924713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A mathematical framework for evo-devo dynamics","authors":"Mauricio González-Forero","doi":"10.1016/j.tpb.2023.11.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tpb.2023.11.003","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;p&gt;Natural selection acts on phenotypes constructed over development, which raises the question of how development affects evolution. Classic evolutionary theory indicates that development affects evolution by modulating the genetic covariation upon which selection acts, thus affecting genetic constraints. However, whether genetic constraints are relative, thus diverting adaptation from the direction of steepest fitness ascent, or absolute, thus blocking adaptation in certain directions, remains uncertain. This limits understanding of long-term evolution of developmentally constructed phenotypes. Here we formulate a general, tractable mathematical framework that integrates age progression, explicit development (i.e., the construction of the phenotype across life subject to developmental constraints), and evolutionary dynamics, thus describing the evolutionary and developmental (evo-devo) dynamics. The framework yields simple equations that can be arranged in a layered structure that we call the evo-devo process, whereby five core elementary components generate all equations including those mechanistically describing genetic covariation and the evo-devo dynamics. The framework recovers evolutionary dynamic equations in gradient form and describes the evolution of genetic covariation from the evolution of genotype, phenotype, environment, and mutational covariation. This shows that genotypic and phenotypic evolution must be followed simultaneously to yield a dynamically sufficient description of long-term phenotypic evolution in gradient form, such that evolution described as the climbing of a fitness landscape occurs in “geno-phenotype” space. Genetic constraints in geno-phenotype space are necessarily absolute because the phenotype is related to the genotype by development. Thus, the long-term evolutionary dynamics of developed phenotypes is strongly non-standard: (1) evolutionary equilibria are either absent or infinite in number and depend on genetic covariation and hence on development; (2) developmental constraints determine the admissible evolutionary path and hence which evolutionary equilibria are admissible; and (3) evolutionary outcomes occur at admissible evolutionary equilibria, which do not generally occur at fitness landscape peaks in geno-phenotype space, but at peaks in the admissible evolutionary path where “total genotypic selection” vanishes if exogenous plastic response vanishes and mutational variation exists in all directions of genotype space. Hence, selection and development jointly define the evolutionary outcomes if absolute mutational constraints and exogenous plastic response are absent, rather than the outcomes being defined only by selection. Moreover, our framework provides formulas for the sensitivities of a recurrence and an alternative method to dynamic optimization (i.e., dynamic programming or optimal control) to identify evolutionary outcomes in models with developmentally dynamic traits. These results sho","PeriodicalId":49437,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Population Biology","volume":"155 ","pages":"Pages 24-50"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040580923000758/pdfft?md5=25cdbdfeeebde0e5d03bffee9e055302&pid=1-s2.0-S0040580923000758-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138479100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The optimal momentum of population growth and decline","authors":"Gustav Feichtinger ,&nbsp;Stefan Wrzaczek","doi":"10.1016/j.tpb.2023.12.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tpb.2023.12.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>About 50 years ago, Keyfitz (1971) asked how much further a growing human population would increase if its fertility rate were immediately to be reduced to replacement level and remain there forever. The reason for demographic momentum is an age–structure inertia due to relatively many potential parents because of past high fertility. Although nobody expects such a miraculous reduction in reproductive behavior, a gradual decline in fertility in rapidly growing populations seems inevitable. As any delay in fertility decline to a stationary level leads to an increase in the momentum, it makes sense to think about the timing and the quantum of the reduction in reproduction. More specifically, we consider an intertemporal trade-off between costly pro- and anti-natalistic measures and the demographic momentum at the end of the planning period. This paper uses the McKendrick–von Foerster partial differential equation of age–structured population dynamics to study a sketched problem in a distributed parameter control framework. Among the results obtained by applying an appropriate extension of Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle are the following: (i) monotony of adaptation efforts to net reproduction rate and convex decrease/concave increase (if initial net reproduction rate exceeds 1/is below 1); and (ii) oscillating efforts and reproduction rate if, additionally, the size of the total population does not deviate from a fixed level.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":49437,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Population Biology","volume":"155 ","pages":"Pages 51-66"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040580923000813/pdfft?md5=d526027ca8b7cfe0772cb47a7ffeda96&pid=1-s2.0-S0040580923000813-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138744318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The shirker’s dilemma and the prospect of cooperation in large groups","authors":"Jorge Peña ,&nbsp;Aviad Heifetz ,&nbsp;Georg Nöldeke","doi":"10.1016/j.tpb.2023.11.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tpb.2023.11.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Cooperation usually becomes harder to sustain as groups become larger because incentives to shirk increase with the number of potential contributors to collective action. But is this always the case? Here we study a binary-action cooperative dilemma where a public good is provided as long as not more than a given number of players shirk from a costly cooperative task. We find that at the stable polymorphic equilibrium, which exists when the cost of cooperation is low enough, the probability of cooperating increases with group size and reaches a limit of one when the group size tends to infinity. Nevertheless, increasing the group size may increase or decrease the probability that the public good is provided at such an equilibrium, depending on the cost value. We also prove that the expected payoff to individuals at the stable polymorphic equilibrium (i.e., their fitness) decreases with group size. For low enough costs of cooperation, both the probability of provision of the public good and the expected payoff converge to positive values in the limit of large group sizes. However, we also find that the basin of attraction of the stable polymorphic equilibrium is a decreasing function of group size and shrinks to zero in the limit of very large groups. Overall, we demonstrate non-trivial comparative statics with respect to group size in an otherwise simple collective action problem.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":49437,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Population Biology","volume":"155 ","pages":"Pages 10-23"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138435318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The 2024 Feldman Prize","authors":"Noah A. Rosenberg (Editor-in-Chief)","doi":"10.1016/j.tpb.2023.09.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tpb.2023.09.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49437,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Population Biology","volume":"155 ","pages":"Page A1"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139082599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}