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Lane change decision prediction: an efficient BO-XGB modelling approach with SHAP analysis 车道变更决策预测：采用 SHAP 分析的高效 BO-XGB 建模方法
IF 3.1 2区 工程技术
Transportmetrica A-Transport Science Pub Date : 2026-01-02 Epub Date: 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/23249935.2024.2372020
Haobo Sun , Qixiu Cheng , Pu Wang , Yongqi Huang , Zhiyuan Liu
{"title":"Lane change decision prediction: an efficient BO-XGB modelling approach with SHAP analysis","authors":"Haobo Sun ,&nbsp;Qixiu Cheng ,&nbsp;Pu Wang ,&nbsp;Yongqi Huang ,&nbsp;Zhiyuan Liu","doi":"10.1080/23249935.2024.2372020","DOIUrl":"10.1080/23249935.2024.2372020","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The lane-change decision (LCD) is a critical aspect of driving behaviour. This study proposes an LCD model based on a Bayesian optimization (BO) framework and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to predict whether a vehicle should change lanes. First, an LCD point extraction method is proposed to refine the exact LCD points with a highD dataset to increase model learning accuracy. Subsequently, an efficient XGBoost with BO (BO-XGB) was used to learn the LCD principles. The prediction accuracy on the highD dataset was 99.14% with a computation time of 66.837s. The accuracy on the CQSkyEyeX dataset was 99.45%. Model explanation using the shapley additive explanation (SHAP) method was developed to analyse the mechanism of the BO-XGB’s LCD prediction results, including global and sample explanations. The former indicates the particular contribution of each feature to the model prediction throughout the entire dataset. The latter denotes each feature's contribution to a single sample.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48871,"journal":{"name":"Transportmetrica A-Transport Science","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141720434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
MicroSimACC: an open database for field experiments on the potential capacity impact of commercial Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) MicroSimACC：商用自适应巡航控制系统（ACC）潜在容量影响现场实验开放数据库
IF 3.1 2区 工程技术
Transportmetrica A-Transport Science Pub Date : 2026-01-02 Epub Date: 2024-05-09 DOI: 10.1080/23249935.2024.2349921
Mingyuan Yang , Pablo Chon-Kan Munoz , Servet Lapardhaja , Yaobang Gong , Md. Ashraful Imran , Md. Tausif Murshed , Kemal Yagantekin , Md. Mahede Hasan Khan , Xingan (David) Kan , Choungryeol Lee
{"title":"MicroSimACC: an open database for field experiments on the potential capacity impact of commercial Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC)","authors":"Mingyuan Yang ,&nbsp;Pablo Chon-Kan Munoz ,&nbsp;Servet Lapardhaja ,&nbsp;Yaobang Gong ,&nbsp;Md. Ashraful Imran ,&nbsp;Md. Tausif Murshed ,&nbsp;Kemal Yagantekin ,&nbsp;Md. Mahede Hasan Khan ,&nbsp;Xingan (David) Kan ,&nbsp;Choungryeol Lee","doi":"10.1080/23249935.2024.2349921","DOIUrl":"10.1080/23249935.2024.2349921","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Commercial availability of vehicle automation has become mainstream. Most of today’s new vehicles can perform longitudinal car following autonomously via Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC). Field experiments demonstrate that today’s commercially available ACC vehicles provide similar headways and capacities as human-driven vehicles on freeways under steady-state and free-flow conditions. However, field tests also demonstrated that the design of today’s commercially available ACC vehicles can lead to further capacity reduction when operating in non-steady-state conditions where queues are present and speeds frequently fluctuate. These experiments generated MicroSimACC, a comprehensive set of field data that encompasses full speed range car following with interruptions from lane change manoeuvres. This will benefit the research community by providing benchmark data for developing models to be integrated into microscopic simulations for more prospective analyses and planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48871,"journal":{"name":"Transportmetrica A-Transport Science","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140931767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Investigating older driver crashes on high-speed roadway segments: a hybrid approach with extreme gradient boosting and random parameter model 高速路段老龄驾驶员碰撞事故调查：采用极端梯度提升和随机参数模型的混合方法
IF 3.1 2区 工程技术
Transportmetrica A-Transport Science Pub Date : 2026-01-02 Epub Date: 2024-06-06 DOI: 10.1080/23249935.2024.2362362
Ahmed Hossain , Xiaoduan Sun , Subasish Das , Monire Jafari , Julius Codjoe
{"title":"Investigating older driver crashes on high-speed roadway segments: a hybrid approach with extreme gradient boosting and random parameter model","authors":"Ahmed Hossain ,&nbsp;Xiaoduan Sun ,&nbsp;Subasish Das ,&nbsp;Monire Jafari ,&nbsp;Julius Codjoe","doi":"10.1080/23249935.2024.2362362","DOIUrl":"10.1080/23249935.2024.2362362","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Older drivers are often more susceptible to crashes due to age-related physical and cognitive limitations, particularly in complex driving environments. Considering the limited research in this area, this study focuses on investigating crashes involving older drivers on high-speed roadways (≥ 45 mph). The analysis is based on data collected from Louisiana State, encompassing 18,300 older driver-involved crashes (2017-2021). For analysis, a two-step hybrid modelling approach is employed: a) Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) is used to classify top variable features and b) Correlated Random Parameter Ordered Probit with Heterogeneity in Means (CRPOP-HM) is used to predict the likelihood of crash injury severity. . Some of the critical factors increasing the likelihood of fatal-severe or injury crashes involving older drivers on high-speed segments include the manner of collision (rear-end, right-angle, single-vehicle), primary contributing factor (violation, pedestrian action), presence of passenger (s), location type (open country, residential, business with mixed residential), and weekend.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48871,"journal":{"name":"Transportmetrica A-Transport Science","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141548599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Improving analytic approximations of TSP tour lengths with adjustment factors 用调整因子改进 TSP 游程长度的解析近似值
IF 3.1 2区 工程技术
Transportmetrica A-Transport Science Pub Date : 2026-01-02 Epub Date: 2024-05-08 DOI: 10.1080/23249935.2024.2346631
Youngmin Choi , Bruce L. Golden , Paul M. Schonfeld
{"title":"Improving analytic approximations of TSP tour lengths with adjustment factors","authors":"Youngmin Choi ,&nbsp;Bruce L. Golden ,&nbsp;Paul M. Schonfeld","doi":"10.1080/23249935.2024.2346631","DOIUrl":"10.1080/23249935.2024.2346631","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Optimizing Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) tours requires substantial computational effort, leading researchers to develop approximations relating tour length to the number of visited points, <em>n</em>. Existing models, such as the <em>√nA</em> predictor, effectively approximate tour lengths for large-capacity vehicles but sacrifice accuracy for small <em>n</em> values relevant for most practical applications. Consequently, this study addresses this gap by proposing models with uniform node distributions, which incorporate realistic factors, such as central vs. random starting points and various service zone shapes. These factors are then integrated into a single equation, enhancing applicability. Furthermore, the exponent of n is statistically estimated to be significantly different from 0.5, challenging previous studies. Our proposed model estimates TSP tour lengths more accurately, particularly for small <em>n</em> values, and maintains accuracy for large <em>n</em> values, with errors below 3.11% for up to 600 points. This model offers a more precise and versatile alternative to current models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48871,"journal":{"name":"Transportmetrica A-Transport Science","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140828095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unconstrained and partially constrained temporal modelling of pedestrian injury severities 行人受伤严重程度的无约束和部分约束时间模型
IF 3.1 2区 工程技术
Transportmetrica A-Transport Science Pub Date : 2026-01-02 Epub Date: 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1080/23249935.2024.2388617
Richard Dzinyela , Monire Jafari , Subasish Das , Tahmida Hossian Shimu , Nawaf Alnawmasi , Dominique Lord
{"title":"Unconstrained and partially constrained temporal modelling of pedestrian injury severities","authors":"Richard Dzinyela ,&nbsp;Monire Jafari ,&nbsp;Subasish Das ,&nbsp;Tahmida Hossian Shimu ,&nbsp;Nawaf Alnawmasi ,&nbsp;Dominique Lord","doi":"10.1080/23249935.2024.2388617","DOIUrl":"10.1080/23249935.2024.2388617","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study aims to explore the phenomenon of pedestrian crash severity by investigating how pedestrian injury levels have evolved in incidents occurring prior to (2019), during (2020), and after (2021) the COVID-19 lockdowns. Using Louisiana crash data, distinct annual models for pedestrian injury severity (categorised as severe (fatal and severe), minor (moderate and minor), and no injury) were developed using a random parameters logit approach, accounting for potential heterogeneity in means and variances of random parameters. Likelihood ratio tests were employed to assess the overall stability of model estimates across the studied years, and a comparison was made between partially constrained and unconstrained temporal modelling approaches. The results reveal statistically significant differences in injury severity before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48871,"journal":{"name":"Transportmetrica A-Transport Science","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141949363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Machine-learning approach for estimating passenger car equivalent factors using crowdsourced data 利用众包数据估算乘用车等效系数的机器学习方法
IF 3.1 2区 工程技术
Transportmetrica A-Transport Science Pub Date : 2026-01-02 Epub Date: 2024-07-20 DOI: 10.1080/23249935.2024.2377600
Adrian Cottam , Xiaofeng Li , Yao-Jan Wu
{"title":"Machine-learning approach for estimating passenger car equivalent factors using crowdsourced data","authors":"Adrian Cottam ,&nbsp;Xiaofeng Li ,&nbsp;Yao-Jan Wu","doi":"10.1080/23249935.2024.2377600","DOIUrl":"10.1080/23249935.2024.2377600","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Passenger car equivalent (PCE) factors are used by the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) to convert truck volumes to equivalent passenger car volumes and are typically calculated using multi-class volumes collected from traffic sensors. However, this requires costly sensor installations that provide limited spatial coverage. Therefore, this study proposes a novel approach to estimate PCE volumes using crowdsourced and open data. A multi-class volume estimation model (TS-SAE-XGB) is proposed to estimate passenger car and truck volumes, and single unit truck ratios. These parameters are input to a PCE interpolation algorithm which estimates PCE values using HCM methods. A spatial leave-one-out cross validation was conducted to compare the proposed model against five other machine learning models when estimating PCE values. The TS-SAE-XGB model estimated PCE and heavy vehicle factors with a MAPE of 6.22% and 3.03%, respectively, providing transportation professionals a practical method of estimating freeway PCE values where sensors are unavailable.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48871,"journal":{"name":"Transportmetrica A-Transport Science","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141884641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Headway regularity as an attribute for classifying bus drivers 作为公交车司机分类属性的班次间隔规律性
IF 3.1 2区 工程技术
Transportmetrica A-Transport Science Pub Date : 2026-01-02 Epub Date: 2024-04-06 DOI: 10.1080/23249935.2024.2337737
Yerly Martínez-Estupiñan , Felipe Delgado , Juan Carlos Muñoz
{"title":"Headway regularity as an attribute for classifying bus drivers","authors":"Yerly Martínez-Estupiñan ,&nbsp;Felipe Delgado ,&nbsp;Juan Carlos Muñoz","doi":"10.1080/23249935.2024.2337737","DOIUrl":"10.1080/23249935.2024.2337737","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Different indices have been proposed in the literature to characterize headway regularity. These metrics aggregate the headway variability for a service, but none can be directly associated with a specific driver. This paper seeks to understand drivers' influence on a service's regularity. To do so, we propose four regularity indices related to a driver's performance and use the Hierarchical Clustering Analysis method to generate a classification of drivers according to their contribution to the headway regularity during the operation of a service. We characterize each class based on the driver's attributes such as age, years of experience as a driver, and years in the bus company, and those attributes associated with the operation, such as number of services per day and period of the day. The results show consistency in the classification obtained, with nearly 90% of drivers remaining in the same regularity classes regardless of the index.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48871,"journal":{"name":"Transportmetrica A-Transport Science","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140594287","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An integrated approach of timetable and train ratio optimisation based on event-driven model with express/local mode 基于事件驱动模型的列车时刻表和列车比例综合优化方法（特快/本地模式
IF 3.1 2区 工程技术
Transportmetrica A-Transport Science Pub Date : 2026-01-02 Epub Date: 2024-06-08 DOI: 10.1080/23249935.2024.2362356
Renjie Zhang , Min Yang , Mao Ye , Xiao Fu , Enhui Chen
{"title":"An integrated approach of timetable and train ratio optimisation based on event-driven model with express/local mode","authors":"Renjie Zhang ,&nbsp;Min Yang ,&nbsp;Mao Ye ,&nbsp;Xiao Fu ,&nbsp;Enhui Chen","doi":"10.1080/23249935.2024.2362356","DOIUrl":"10.1080/23249935.2024.2362356","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Express/local mode is an innovation combined with both express train and local train in metro system, which can offer conventional service for every station and rapid service for selected stations. The traditional operation planning for express/local mode is often carried out sequentially, leading to sub-optimality in the overall scheme and even an inability to match passenger demand. This paper aims to propose an integrated optimization approach of timetable and train ratio in express/local mode. An event-driven model and a ratio decomposition method are introduced to facilitate modeling of the problem. Then, a Two-stage Active Set Method is designed to solve the proposed model. The approach is verified through an example from Guangzhou Metro Line 14, revealing the correlation between train ratio and passenger waiting time. The results indicate that the approach can effectively allocate capacity resources of trains, leading to a significant 19.2% reduction in passenger waiting time.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48871,"journal":{"name":"Transportmetrica A-Transport Science","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141529063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A comparison of the accumulation-based, trip-based and time delay macroscopic fundamental diagram models 基于累积、基于行程和基于时间延迟的宏观基本图模型比较
IF 3.1 2区 工程技术
Transportmetrica A-Transport Science Pub Date : 2026-01-02 Epub Date: 2024-04-06 DOI: 10.1080/23249935.2024.2338258
Yunping Huang , Jianhui Xiong , Shu-Chien Hsu , Agachai Sumalee , William Lam , Renxin Zhong
{"title":"A comparison of the accumulation-based, trip-based and time delay macroscopic fundamental diagram models","authors":"Yunping Huang ,&nbsp;Jianhui Xiong ,&nbsp;Shu-Chien Hsu ,&nbsp;Agachai Sumalee ,&nbsp;William Lam ,&nbsp;Renxin Zhong","doi":"10.1080/23249935.2024.2338258","DOIUrl":"10.1080/23249935.2024.2338258","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) is widely applied in network modelling and management, such as route guidance and vehicle relocation, which are formulated as generalised dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) problems. MFD can effectively reduce the spatial dimension thus making the generalised DTA problems computationally efficient. In the literature, three MFD models, the accumulation-based model, the trip-based model, and the time delay model, were proposed to capture the traffic flow propagation under different traffic conditions and demand scenarios. However, no consensus has been reached on their computational efficiency and which model should be chosen under certain traffic conditions and demand scenarios. In this paper, we revisit these models regarding two important theoretical properties regarding flow propagation in the DTA, i.e. the first-in-first-out (FIFO) principle and causality. Corresponding dynamic network loading algorithms are designed to compare their numerical accuracy and computational efficiency. Numerical comparisons with Lighthill-Whitham-Richards (LWR) model and a micro simulator confirm that the accumulation-based model is valid in saturation, the trip-based model is valid in free-flow, while the time delay model provides a good approximation in both free-flow and saturation scenarios. On the other hand, violation of strict causality is observed in the accumulation-based and trip-based models, rendering it hard to pursue analytical DTA. This issue is not observed in the time delay model. Overall, the time delay model is a promising alternative for dynamic network loading in large-scale network applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48871,"journal":{"name":"Transportmetrica A-Transport Science","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140594638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Heterogeneous vehicle scheduling with precedence constraints 带优先级约束的异构车辆调度
IF 3.1 2区 工程技术
Transportmetrica A-Transport Science Pub Date : 2026-01-02 Epub Date: 2024-04-09 DOI: 10.1080/23249935.2024.2338249
Ruiyou Zhang , Zhujun Liu , Ilkyeong Moon
{"title":"Heterogeneous vehicle scheduling with precedence constraints","authors":"Ruiyou Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhujun Liu ,&nbsp;Ilkyeong Moon","doi":"10.1080/23249935.2024.2338249","DOIUrl":"10.1080/23249935.2024.2338249","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The problem of heterogeneous vehicle scheduling with precedence constraints is inspired by the transportation service in tourism areas. Tourists must take the shuttle vehicles provided by the areas because of the long distances between the scenic spots. The scheduling of vehicles in tourism areas is complicated because the transportation requests of tourists are precedence-constrained temporally and spatially. The problem optimises both the cost of using vehicles and the waiting time of tourists. A mixed-integer linear programming model is formulated according to the description of a graph. An adaptive large neighbourhood search algorithm with several specialised operators is designed to solve the problem. Experiments based on randomly generated instances validate the mathematical model and the algorithm. A real-size instance based on Qiandao Lake in China is also analysed. The results indicate that the algorithm outperforms the model. The sensitivities of key parameters are analysed with managerial insights presented.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48871,"journal":{"name":"Transportmetrica A-Transport Science","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140594414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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