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Prediction of vaccination coverage levels in populations with increasing levels of heterogeneity. 在异质性水平增加的人群中预测疫苗接种覆盖水平。
IF 2.2 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-12 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2025.2545188
Fan Bai
{"title":"Prediction of vaccination coverage levels in populations with increasing levels of heterogeneity.","authors":"Fan Bai","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2025.2545188","DOIUrl":"10.1080/17513758.2025.2545188","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Heterogeneity of population is a key factor in modelling the transmission of disease among the population and has huge impact on the outcome of the transmission. In order to investigate the decision-making process in the heterogeneous mixing population regarding whether to be vaccinated or not, we propose the modelling framework which includes the epidemic models and the game theoretical analysis. We consider two sources of heterogeneity in this paper: the different activity levels and the different relative vaccination costs. It is interesting to observe that, if both sources of heterogeneity are considered, there exist a finite number of Nash equilibria for the vaccination game. While if only the difference of activity levels is considered, there are infinitely many Nash equilibria. For the latter case, the initial condition of the decision-making process becomes highly sensitive. In the application of public health management, the inclusion of population heterogeneity significantly complicates the prediction of the overall vaccine coverage level in the whole population.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"19 1","pages":"2545188"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144838332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bifurcation analysis and chaos control in a Hassell-Varley model with the Ricker growth. 具有Ricker增长的Hassell-Varley模型的分岔分析与混沌控制。
IF 1.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-12 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2025.2502336
Lijiao Jia, Yunil Roh, Il Hyo Jung
{"title":"Bifurcation analysis and chaos control in a Hassell-Varley model with the Ricker growth.","authors":"Lijiao Jia, Yunil Roh, Il Hyo Jung","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2025.2502336","DOIUrl":"10.1080/17513758.2025.2502336","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The Ricker-type growth model, which incorporates a density-dependent mechanism, is widely used in ecological modelling to fit a broad range of complex population growth patterns. In this study, the complex dynamics of a modified Hassell-Varley model with Ricker growth were analysed. We first investigated the permanence of solutions, the existence and uniqueness of the positive steady state and the local stability of equilibrium points. We confirm that, under certain parametric conditions, the proposed system undergoes a flip or Neimark-Sacker bifurcation within the interior of <math><msubsup><mi>R</mi><mo>+</mo><mn>2</mn></msubsup></math>. Two feedback control measures were employed to control bifurcation and chaos in the proposed system. Simultaneously, several examples are provided to support our theoretical results using numerical simulations, and are conducted to illustrate the intricate behaviours of the modified Hassell-Varley model.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"19 1","pages":"2502336"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144002582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Population dynamics driven by harvesting and prey refuge in the absence and presence of time delays. 在没有和存在时间延迟的情况下，由收获和猎物避难驱动的种群动态。
IF 1.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-10 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2025.2516461
Tiancai Liao, Jian Chen, Min Zhu, Yi Wang
{"title":"Population dynamics driven by harvesting and prey refuge in the absence and presence of time delays.","authors":"Tiancai Liao, Jian Chen, Min Zhu, Yi Wang","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2025.2516461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2025.2516461","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, we study the dynamics of a delayed predator-prey model with harvesting and prey refuge. For the model without time delays, we show the stability of boundary and positive equilibria, given the existence of bionomic equilibrium, and provide the optimal harvesting policy. For the model with time delays, we show the local stability of the positive equilibrium for four different time delay cases, give the existence of Hopf bifurcation near the positive equilibrium, and prove the direction and stability of bifurcating periodic solutions. Ecologically, via numerical simulations, we find that the synergistic effects of time delay, refuge and harvesting can have complex effects on population dynamics. One of the most important results indicates that the increase of prey refuge or prey harvesting rate can eliminate the periodic solutions induced by time delay, while the increase in predator harvesting rate can maintain this periodic phenomenon.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"19 1","pages":"2516461"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144267732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mathematical modeling and Hopf bifurcation analysis of tumor macrophage interaction with polarization delay. 肿瘤巨噬细胞极化延迟相互作用的数学建模与Hopf分岔分析。
IF 1.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-26 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2025.2508240
Jianping Li, Nan Liu, Danni Wang, Hongli Yang
{"title":"Mathematical modeling and Hopf bifurcation analysis of tumor macrophage interaction with polarization delay.","authors":"Jianping Li, Nan Liu, Danni Wang, Hongli Yang","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2025.2508240","DOIUrl":"10.1080/17513758.2025.2508240","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Macrophages have both anti-tumor and pro-tumor effects. Time delay is commonly observed in real systems, yet its impact on tumor-macrophage dynamics remains unclear. This paper develops a new tumor-macrophage model with time delay. The model describes the interactions between tumor cells (T), the classically activated macrophages (M1), the alternatively activated macrophages (M2), and the inactive macrophages (M0). The system's solution is computed, and equilibrium stability is analyzed. The existence of Hopf bifurcation is subsequently established. There exists bifurcating periodic solutions near the internal equilibrium, showing tumor cells and macrophages can coexist in the long term, as well as the potential for tumor relapse. Furthermore, the normal form and center manifold theorem are utilized to study the nature of Hopf bifurcation. Sensitivity analysis highlights the effect of parameters on tumor population dynamics. Numerical simulations validate the theory, elaborating the model can serve as a useful tool for tumor system analysis.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"19 1","pages":"2508240"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144144028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Within-host dynamics of HTLV-2 and HIV-1 co-infection with delay. HTLV-2和HIV-1合并感染的宿主内动力学与延迟。
IF 1.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2025.2506536
A M Elaiw, E A Almohaimeed
{"title":"Within-host dynamics of HTLV-2 and HIV-1 co-infection with delay.","authors":"A M Elaiw, E A Almohaimeed","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2025.2506536","DOIUrl":"10.1080/17513758.2025.2506536","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This paper formulates a mathematical model for the co-infection of HTLV-2 and HIV-1 with latent reservoirs, four types of distributed-time delays and HIV-1-specific B cells. We establish that the solutions remain bounded and nonnegative, identify the system's steady states, and derive sufficient conditions ensuring both their existence and global asymptotic stability. The system's global stability is confirmed using Lyapunov's method. We provide numerical simulations to support the stability results. Sensitivity analysis of basic reproduction numbers of HTLV-2 mono-infection (<math><msub><mi>R</mi><mrow><mn>1</mn></mrow></msub></math>) and HIV-1 mono-infection (<math><msub><mi>R</mi><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math>) is conducted. We examine how time delays influence the interaction between HIV-1 and HTLV-2. Including delay terms in the model reflects the influence of antiviral treatments, which help decrease <math><msub><mi>R</mi><mrow><mn>1</mn></mrow></msub></math> and <math><msub><mi>R</mi><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math>, thus limiting the spread of infection. This highlights the potential for designing therapies that prolong delay period. Incorporating such delays improves model precision and supports more effective evaluation of treatment strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"19 1","pages":"2506536"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144121180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Importance of pesticide and additional food in pest-predator system: a theoretical study. 农药和补充食物在害虫-捕食系统中的重要性的理论研究。
IF 1.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-26 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2024.2444263
K Durga Prasad, B S R V Prasad, Kritish De
{"title":"Importance of pesticide and additional food in pest-predator system: a theoretical study.","authors":"K Durga Prasad, B S R V Prasad, Kritish De","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2024.2444263","DOIUrl":"10.1080/17513758.2024.2444263","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Integrated pest management (IPM) combines chemical and biological control to maintain pest populations below economic thresholds. The impact of providing additional food for predators on pest-predator dynamics, along- side pesticide use, in the IPM context remains unstudied. To address this issue, in this work a theoretical model was developed using differential equations, assuming Holling type II functional response for the predator, with additional food sources included. Strategies for controlling pest populations were derived by analyzing Hopf bifurcation occurring in the system using dynamical system theory. The study revealed that the quality and quantity of additional food supplied to predators play a crucial role in the system's dynamics. Pesticides, combined with the introduction of predators supported by high-quality supplementary food, enable a quick elimination of pests from the system more effectively. This observation highlights the role of IPM in optimizing pest management strategies with minimal pesticide application and supporting the environment.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"19 1","pages":"2444263"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142898901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Stationary distribution of a stochastic SEIR model with infectivity in the incubation period and homestead-isolation on the susceptible under regime switching. 具有潜伏期传染性的随机SEIR模型的平稳分布，易感者在状态转换下的家园隔离。
IF 1.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-24 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2025.2521509
Ying He, Bo Bi
{"title":"Stationary distribution of a stochastic SEIR model with infectivity in the incubation period and homestead-isolation on the susceptible under regime switching.","authors":"Ying He, Bo Bi","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2025.2521509","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2025.2521509","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This paper is concerned with a stochastic SEIR model with infectivity in the incubation period and homestead-isolation on the susceptible, which is perturbed by white and colour noises. The model has a unique stationary distribution, which reflects the persistence of epidemics over a long period. Using the Has-minskii theorem and constructing stochastic Lyapunov functions with regime switching, we derive an important condition <math><msubsup><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn><mi>s</mi></msubsup><mo>.</mo></math> Comparing the expression for <math><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></math> and <math><msubsup><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn><mi>s</mi></msubsup><mo>,</mo></math> we can see that if there is no environmental noise, then <math><msubsup><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn><mi>s</mi></msubsup><mo>=</mo><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub><mo>.</mo></math> It ensures the asymptotic stability of the positive equilibrium <math><msup><mi>E</mi><mo>∗</mo></msup></math> of the corresponding deterministic system.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"19 1","pages":"2521509"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144486738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bifurcations of a modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with fear, Allee effect and hunting cooperation strategy. 考虑恐惧、Allee效应和狩猎合作策略的改进Leslie-Gower捕食-被捕食模型的分岔。
IF 2.2 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2025.2552730
Weili Kong, Yuanfu Shao
{"title":"Bifurcations of a modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with fear, Allee effect and hunting cooperation strategy.","authors":"Weili Kong, Yuanfu Shao","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2025.2552730","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2025.2552730","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The fear preoften leads to changes in the physiological characteristics of the prey. Different stages of prey exhibit different physiological behaviours, such as susceptibility to predator risk, which often leads to Allee effect. Taking into account the influence of these factors, a modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with Allee effect and stage structure is constructed in this paper. By use of variational technique and normal form theory, the criteria assuring the appearance of transcritical bifurcation, saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation and its direction are all established. Specially, such codimension 2 bifurcations as Bautin bifurcation and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation are presented. The bubble phenomenon and bistability are detected. All theoretical findings are verified by numerical examples. The biological effects of fear level, Allee effect and stage structure on system stability are analysed.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"19 1","pages":"2552730"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145001750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modelling measles transmission dynamics and the impact of control strategies on outbreak Management. 模拟麻疹传播动态和控制策略对疫情管理的影响。
IF 1.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-18 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2025.2479448
Olumuyiwa James Peter
{"title":"Modelling measles transmission dynamics and the impact of control strategies on outbreak Management.","authors":"Olumuyiwa James Peter","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2025.2479448","DOIUrl":"10.1080/17513758.2025.2479448","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Measles is a highly contagious and potentially fatal disease, despite the availability of effective immunizations. This study formulates a deterministic mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of measles, with eight compartments representing different epidemiological states such as susceptible, vaccinated, exposed, infected, early-treated, delayed-treated, hospitalized, and recovered individuals. We use the Next Generation Matrix (NGN) approach to obtain the basic reproduction number (<math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mn>0</mn></msub></math>) and examine local stability at the disease-free equilibrium (DFE). Sensitivity analysis with Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (PRCC) identifies significant parameters influencing disease dynamics, such as vaccination rates, transmission rate, treatment timings, and disease-induced mortality rates. Simulation results show that delayed therapy has a limited effect on lowering the infected population, emphasizing the importance of immediate intervention. Early treatment considerably reduces the number of infected individuals, whereas improved recovery rates in hospitalized cases result in fewer hospitalizations. Vaccination is extremely successful, with increased rates significantly lowering the susceptible population while boosting the vaccinated population. Higher disease-related mortality rates reduce the afflicted population, stressing the importance of strong control methods. The transmission rate has a substantial impact on infection rates and hospitalizations, emphasizing the need for effective public health policies and healthcare capacity. The combined effect of immunization and early treatment provides useful information for optimizing control measures. This study emphasizes the need of quick and effective measures in managing measles outbreaks and serves as a platform for future research into improved public health methods.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"19 1","pages":"2479448"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143659288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Aziz Yakubu.
IF 1.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-27 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2024.2367893
Mike Reed
{"title":"Aziz Yakubu.","authors":"Mike Reed","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2024.2367893","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2024.2367893","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"18 1","pages":"2367893"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142796575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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