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Parameter identifiability and optimal control of an SARS-CoV-2 model early in the pandemic 疫情早期严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型模型的参数可识别性和最优控制
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-05-30 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2078899
N. Tuncer, A. Timsina, M. Nuño, G. Chowell, M. Martcheva
{"title":"Parameter identifiability and optimal control of an SARS-CoV-2 model early in the pandemic","authors":"N. Tuncer, A. Timsina, M. Nuño, G. Chowell, M. Martcheva","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2022.2078899","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2022.2078899","url":null,"abstract":"We fit an SARS-CoV-2 model to US data of COVID-19 cases and deaths. We conclude that the model is not structurally identifiable. We make the model identifiable by prefixing some of the parameters from external information. Practical identifiability of the model through Monte Carlo simulations reveals that two of the parameters may not be practically identifiable. With thus identified parameters, we set up an optimal control problem with social distancing and isolation as control variables. We investigate two scenarios: the controls are applied for the entire duration and the controls are applied only for the period of time. Our results show that if the controls are applied early in the epidemic, the reduction in the infected classes is at least an order of magnitude higher compared to when controls are applied with 2-week delay. Further, removing the controls before the pandemic ends leads to rebound of the infected classes.","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"16 1","pages":"412 - 438"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48722633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 16
Viability of Pentadesma in reduced habitat ecosystems within two climatic regions with fruit harvesting 五连丝在两个气候区内有水果收获的减少栖息地生态系统中的生存能力
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-05-09 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2071489
M. Leite, B. Chen-Charpentier, F. Agusto, O. Gaoue, N. Hritonenko
{"title":"Viability of Pentadesma in reduced habitat ecosystems within two climatic regions with fruit harvesting","authors":"M. Leite, B. Chen-Charpentier, F. Agusto, O. Gaoue, N. Hritonenko","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2022.2071489","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2022.2071489","url":null,"abstract":"Habitat loss and harvesting of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) significantly affect the population dynamics. In this paper, we propose a general mathematical modelling approach incorporating the impact of habitat size reduction and non-lethal harvesting of NTFP on population dynamics. The model framework integrates experimental data of Pentadesma butyracea in Benin. This framework allows us to determine the rational non-lethal harvesting level and habitat size to ensure the stability of the plant ecosystem, and to study the impacts of distinct levels of humidity. We suggest non-lethal harvesting policies that maximize the economic benefit for local populations.","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"16 1","pages":"207 - 235"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49324637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Dynamics of autotroph–mixotroph interactions with the intraguild predation structure 自养-混合养生物与鱼体内捕食结构相互作用的动力学
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-04-25 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2066729
Ming Chen, Jimin Zhang, Satlykova Ejegul
{"title":"Dynamics of autotroph–mixotroph interactions with the intraguild predation structure","authors":"Ming Chen, Jimin Zhang, Satlykova Ejegul","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2022.2066729","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2022.2066729","url":null,"abstract":"A mathematical model with the intraguild predation structure is proposed to describe the interactions of autotrophs and mixotrophs containing light and nutrients in a well-mixed aquatic ecosystem. The dissipation, existence and stability of equilibria of the model are proved, and the ecological reproductive indexes for the extinction, survival and coexistence of autotrophs and mixotrophs are established. We also consider the influence of Holling type functional responses and abiotic factors on the coexistence and biomass of autotrophs and mixotrophs. It is shown that the intraguild predation structure is beneficial to phytoplankton biodiversity and provides an explanation for the phytoplankton paradox.","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"16 1","pages":"186 - 206"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41495816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The effect of spatial dynamics on the behaviour of an environmentally transmitted disease 空间动力学对环境传播疾病行为的影响
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-04-11 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2061614
Ivy J Hindle, L. Forbes, S. Carver
{"title":"The effect of spatial dynamics on the behaviour of an environmentally transmitted disease","authors":"Ivy J Hindle, L. Forbes, S. Carver","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2022.2061614","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2022.2061614","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the spread of pathogens through the environment is critical to a fuller comprehension of disease dynamics. However, many mathematical models of disease dynamics ignore spatial effects. We seek to expand knowledge around the interaction between the bare-nosed wombat (Vombatus ursinus) and sarcoptic mange (etiologic agent Sarcoptes scabiei), by extending an aspatial mathematical model to include spatial variation. S. scabiei was found to move through our modelled region as a spatio-temporal travelling wave, leaving behind pockets of localized host extinction, consistent with field observations. The speed of infection spread was also comparable with field research. Our model predicts that the inclusion of spatial dynamics leads to the survival and recovery of affected wombat populations when an aspatial model predicts extinction. Collectively, this research demonstrates how environmentally transmitted S. scabiei can result in travelling wave dynamics, and that inclusion of spatial variation reveals a more resilient host population than aspatial modelling approaches.","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"16 1","pages":"144 - 159"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42169563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Comparison of classical tumour growth models for patient derived and cell-line derived xenografts using the nonlinear mixed-effects framework 使用非线性混合效应框架比较患者来源和细胞系来源异种移植物的经典肿瘤生长模型
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-04-11 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2061615
Dimitrios Voulgarelis, K. Bulusu, J. Yates
{"title":"Comparison of classical tumour growth models for patient derived and cell-line derived xenografts using the nonlinear mixed-effects framework","authors":"Dimitrios Voulgarelis, K. Bulusu, J. Yates","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2022.2061615","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2022.2061615","url":null,"abstract":"In this study we compare seven mathematical models of tumour growth using nonlinear mixed-effects which allows for a simultaneous fitting of multiple data and an estimation of both mean behaviour and variability. This is performed for two large datasets, a patient-derived xenograft (PDX) dataset consisting of 220 PDXs spanning six different tumour types and a cell-line derived xenograft (CDX) dataset consisting of 25 cell lines spanning eight tumour types. Comparison of the models is performed by means of visual predictive checks (VPCs) as well as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Additionally, we fit the models to 500 bootstrap samples drawn from the datasets to expand the comparison of the models under dataset perturbations and understand the growth kinetics that are best fitted by each model. Through qualitative and quantitative metrics the best models are identified the effectiveness and practicality of simpler models is highlighted","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"16 1","pages":"160 - 185"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45993923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Impact of information and Lévy noise on stochastic COVID-19 epidemic model under real statistical data 真实统计数据下信息和lsamvy噪声对随机COVID-19流行模型的影响
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-03-26 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2055172
Peijiang Liu, Lifang Huang, Anwarud Din, Xiangxiang Huang
{"title":"Impact of information and Lévy noise on stochastic COVID-19 epidemic model under real statistical data","authors":"Peijiang Liu, Lifang Huang, Anwarud Din, Xiangxiang Huang","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2022.2055172","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2022.2055172","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we consider the dynamical behaviour of a stochastic coronavirus (COVID-19) susceptible-infected-removed epidemic model with the inclusion of the influence of information intervention and Lévy noise. The existence and uniqueness of the model positive solution are proved. Then, we establish a stochastic threshold as a sufficient condition for the extinction and persistence in mean of the disease. Based on the available COVID-19 data, the parameters of the model were estimated and we fit the model with real statistics. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to support our theoretical results.","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"16 1","pages":"236 - 253"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41930966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Persistence and extinction of a modified Leslie–Gower Holling-type II two-predator one-prey model with Lévy jumps 具有lsamvy跳跃的改进的Leslie-Gower holling型II双捕食者单猎物模型的持续和灭绝
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-03-14 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2050313
Yongxin Gao, Fan Yang
{"title":"Persistence and extinction of a modified Leslie–Gower Holling-type II two-predator one-prey model with Lévy jumps","authors":"Yongxin Gao, Fan Yang","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2022.2050313","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2022.2050313","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is concerned with a modified Leslie–Gower and Holling-type II two-predator one-prey model with Lévy jumps. First, we use an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process to describe the environmental stochasticity and prove that there is a unique positive solution to the system. Moreover, sufficient conditions for persistence in the mean and extinction of each species are established. Finally, we give some numerical simulations to support the main results.","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"16 1","pages":"117 - 143"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42210217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
SARS-CoV-2 and self-medication in Cameroon: a mathematical model. 喀麦隆的SARS-CoV-2和自我用药:一个数学模型。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2021.1883130
Jude D Kong, Rinel F Tchuendom, Samuel A Adeleye, Jummy F David, Fikreab Solomon Admasu, Emmanuel A Bakare, Nourridine Siewe
{"title":"SARS-CoV-2 and self-medication in Cameroon: a mathematical model.","authors":"Jude D Kong,&nbsp;Rinel F Tchuendom,&nbsp;Samuel A Adeleye,&nbsp;Jummy F David,&nbsp;Fikreab Solomon Admasu,&nbsp;Emmanuel A Bakare,&nbsp;Nourridine Siewe","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2021.1883130","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2021.1883130","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Self-medication is an important initial response to illness in Africa. This mode of medication is often done with the help of African traditional medicines. Because of the misconception that African traditional medicines can cure/prevent all diseases, some Africans may opt for COVID-19 prevention and management by self-medicating. Thus to efficiently predict the dynamics of COVID-19 in Africa, the role of the self-medicated population needs to be taken into account. In this paper, we formulate and analyse a mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19 in Cameroon. The model is represented by a system of compartmental age-structured ODEs that takes into account the self-medicated population and subdivides the human population into two age classes relative to their current immune system strength. We use our model to propose policy measures that could be implemented in the course of an epidemic in order to better handle cases of self-medication.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"15 1","pages":"137-150"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17513758.2021.1883130","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"25331303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Threshold dynamics of a HCV model with virus to cell transmission in both liver with CTL immune response and the extrahepatic tissue. 具有CTL免疫应答的肝脏和肝外组织中病毒向细胞传播的HCV模型的阈值动力学
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2020.1859632
Xinli Hu, Jianquan Li, Xiaomei Feng
{"title":"Threshold dynamics of a HCV model with virus to cell transmission in both liver with CTL immune response and the extrahepatic tissue.","authors":"Xinli Hu,&nbsp;Jianquan Li,&nbsp;Xiaomei Feng","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2020.1859632","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2020.1859632","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, a deterministic model characterizing the within-host infection of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) in intrahepatic and extrahepatic tissues is presented. In addition, the model also includes the effect of the cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) immunity described by a linear activation rate by infected cells. Firstly, the non-negativity and boundedness of solutions of the model are established. Secondly, the basic reproduction number <math><msub><mi>R</mi><mrow><mn>01</mn></mrow></msub></math> and immune reproduction number <math><msub><mi>R</mi><mrow><mn>02</mn></mrow></msub></math> are calculated, respectively. Three equilibria, namely, infection-free, CTL immune response-free and infected equilibrium with CTL immune response are discussed in terms of these two thresholds. Thirdly, the stability of these three equilibria is investigated theoretically as well as numerically. The results show that when <math><msub><mi>R</mi><mrow><mn>01</mn></mrow></msub><mo><</mo><mn>1</mn></math> , the virus will be cleared out eventually and the CTL immune response will also disappear; when <math><msub><mi>R</mi><mrow><mn>02</mn></mrow></msub><mo><</mo><mn>1</mn><mo><</mo><msub><mi>R</mi><mrow><mn>01</mn></mrow></msub></math> , the virus persists within the host, but the CTL immune response disappears eventually; when <math><msub><mi>R</mi><mrow><mn>02</mn></mrow></msub><mo>></mo><mn>1</mn></math> , both of the virus and the CTL immune response persist within the host. Finally, a brief discussion will be given.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"15 1","pages":"19-34"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17513758.2020.1859632","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38745440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Global stability of a delayed and diffusive virus model with nonlinear infection function. 一类具有非线性感染函数的延迟扩散病毒模型的全局稳定性。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2021.1922770
Yan Geng, Jinhu Xu
{"title":"Global stability of a delayed and diffusive virus model with nonlinear infection function.","authors":"Yan Geng,&nbsp;Jinhu Xu","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2021.1922770","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2021.1922770","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This paper studies a delayed viral infection model with diffusion and a general incidence rate. A discrete-time model was derived by applying nonstandard finite difference scheme. The positivity and boundedness of solutions are presented. We established the global stability of equilibria in terms of <math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mn>0</mn></msub></math> by applying Lyapunov method. The results showed that if <math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mn>0</mn></msub></math> is less than 1, then the infection-free equilibrium <math><msub><mi>E</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></math> is globally asymptotically stable. If <math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mn>0</mn></msub></math> is greater than 1, then the infection equilibrium <math><msub><mi>E</mi><mo>∗</mo></msub></math> is globally asymptotically stable. Numerical experiments are carried out to illustrate the theoretical results.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"15 1","pages":"287-307"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17513758.2021.1922770","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38944907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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