Earth Surface Dynamics最新文献

{"title":"Quantifying the migration rate of drainage divides from high-resolution topographic data","authors":"Chao Zhou, Xibin Tan, Yiduo Liu, Feng Shi","doi":"10.5194/esurf-12-433-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-433-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The lateral movement of drainage divides is co-influenced by tectonics, lithology, and climate and therefore archives a wealth of geologic and climatic information. It also has wide-ranging implications for topography, the sedimentary record, and biological evolution and thus has drawn much attention in recent years. Several methods have been proposed to determine drainage divides' migration state (direction and rate), including geochronological approaches (e.g., 10Be) and topography-based approaches (e.g., χ plots or Gilbert metrics). A key object in these methods is the channel head, which separates the hillslope and channel. However, due to the limited resolution of topography data, the required channel-head parameters in the calculation often cannot be determined accurately, and empirical values are used in the calculation, which may induce uncertainties. Here, we propose two methods to calculate the migration rate of drainage divides based on the relatively accurate channel-head parameters derived from high-resolution topographic data. We then apply the methods to an active rift shoulder (Wutai Shan) in the Shanxi Rift and a tectonically stable area (Yingwang Shan) in the Loess Plateau, to illustrate how to calculate drainage-divide migration rates. Our results show that the Wutai Shan drainage divide is migrating northwestward at a rate between 0.21 and 0.27 mm yr−1, whereas the migration rates at the Yingwang Shan are approximately zero. This study indicates that the drainage-divide stability can be determined more accurately using high-resolution topographic data. Furthermore, this study takes the cross-divide differences in the uplift rate of channel heads into account in the measurement of drainage-divide migration rate for the first time.","PeriodicalId":48749,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Dynamics","volume":"84 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140057275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling active layer thickness in mountain permafrost based on an analytical solution of the heat transport equation, Kitzsteinhorn, Hohe Tauern Range, Austria","authors":"Wolfgang Aumer, Ingo Hartmeyer, Carolyn-Monika Görres, Daniel Uteau, Stephan Peth","doi":"10.5194/egusphere-2023-3006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3006","url":null,"abstract":"<strong>Abstract.</strong> The active layer thickness (ALT) refers to the seasonal thaw depth of a permafrost body and is an essential parameter for natural hazard analysis, construction, land-use planning and the estimation of greenhouse gas emissions in periglacial regions. The aim of this study is to model the annual maximum thaw depth for determining ALT based on temperature data measured in four shallow boreholes (SBs, 0.1 m deep) in the summit region of the Kitzsteinhorn (Hohe Tauern Range, Austria, Europe). We set up our heat flow model with temperature data (2016–21) from a 30 m deep borehole (DB) drilled into bedrock at the Kitzsteinhorn north-face. For modeling purposes, we assume 1D conductive heat flow and present an analytical solution of the heat transport equation through sinusoidal temperature waves resulting from seasonal temperature oscillations (damping depth method). The model approach is considered successful: In the validation period (2019–21), modeled and measured ALT differed by only 0.1±0.1 m. We then applied the DB-calibrated model to four SBs and found that the modeled seasonal ALT maximum ranged between 2.5 m (SB 2) and 10.6 m (SB 1) in the observation period (2013–2021). Due to small differences in altitude (~ 200 m) within the study area, slope aspect had the strongest impact on ALT. To project future ALT deepening due to global warming, we integrated IPCC climate scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 into our model. By mid-century (~ 2050), ALT is expected to increase by 48 % at SB 2 and by 62 % at DB under scenario SSP1-2.6 (56 % and 128 % under scenario SSP5-8.5), while permafrost will no longer be present at SB 1, SB 3 and SB 4. By the end of the century (~ 2100), permafrost will only remain under scenario SSP1-2.6 with an ALT increase of 51 % at SB 2 and of 69 % at DB.","PeriodicalId":48749,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Dynamics","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140025493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Validating floc settling velocity models in rivers and freshwater wetlands","authors":"Justin A. Nghiem, Gen K. Li, Joshua P. Harringmeyer, Gerard Salter, Cédric G. Fichot, Luca Cortese, Michael P. Lamb","doi":"10.5194/egusphere-2024-524","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-524","url":null,"abstract":"<strong>Abstract.</strong> Flocculation controls mud sedimentation and organic carbon burial rates by increasing mud settling velocity. Floc settling velocity can be predicted using a semi-empirical model that depends on turbulence, sediment concentration, and geochemical variables or an explicit Stokes law-type model that depends on floc diameter, permeability, and fractal properties. However, validation of the semi-empirical and explicit models with direct field measurements is lacking. We employed a camera, in situ particle sizing, and analysis of grain size-specific suspended sediment concentration profiles to measure flocs in the freshwater channels and wetlands of Wax Lake Delta, Louisiana. Sediment finer than ~20 to 50 μm flocculates with median floc diameter of 30 to 90 μm, bulk solid fraction of 0.05 to 0.3, and floc settling velocity of ~0.1 to 1 mm s^-1, with little variation along depth. These values are consistent with the semi-empirical model, which indicates that turbulence limits variation in floc settling velocity on flood-to-seasonal time scales. In the explicit model, the effective primary particle diameter, commonly assumed to be the median primary particle diameter, differs by a factor of ~2 to 6 smaller than the median and can be better described using a simple fractal theory. Flow through the floc increases settling velocity by a factor of ~2 and can be explained by parameterizing flocs as effectively permeable clusters of primary particles. Our results provide the first full field validation of effective primary particle diameter and floc permeability theories, which improve floc settling velocity predictions of the explicit model.","PeriodicalId":48749,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Dynamics","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139978765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-term monitoring (1953–2019) of geomorphologically active sections of Little Ice Age lateral moraines in the context of changing meteorological conditions","authors":"Moritz Altmann, Madlene Pfeiffer, Florian Haas, Jakob Rom, Fabian Fleischer, Tobias Heckmann, Livia Piermattei, Michael Wimmer, Lukas Braun, Manuel Stark, Sarah Betz-Nutz, Michael Becht","doi":"10.5194/esurf-12-399-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-399-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. We show a long-term erosion monitoring of several geomorphologically active gully systems on Little Ice Age lateral moraines in the European Central–Eastern Alps, covering a total time period from 1953 to 2019 and including several survey periods in order to identify corresponding morphodynamic trends. For the implementation, DEM (digital elevation model) of Differences (DoDs) were calculated, based on multitemporal high-resolution digital elevation models from historical aerial images (generated by structure from motion photogrammetry with multi-view stereo) and light detection and ranging from airborne platforms. Two approaches were implemented to achieve the corresponding objectives. First, by calculating linear regression models using the accumulated sediment yield and the corresponding catchment area (on a log–log scale), the range of the variability in the spatial distribution of erosion values within the sites. Second, we use volume calculations to determine the total and the mean sediment yield (as well as erosion rates) of the entire sites. Subsequently, both the sites and the different time periods of both approaches are compared. Based on the slopes of the calculated regression lines, it can be shown that the highest variability in the sediment yield at the sites occurs in the first time period (mainly 1950s to 1970s). This can be attributed to the fact that within some sites the sediment yield per square metre increases clearly more strongly (regression lines with slopes up to 1.5). In contrast, in the later time periods (1970s to mid-2000s and mid-2000s to 2017/2019), there is generally a decrease in 10 out of 12 cases (regression lines with slopes around 1). However, even at sites with an increase in the variability in the sediment yield over time, the earlier high variabilities are no longer reached. This means that the spatial pattern of erosion in the gully heads changes over time as it becomes more uniform. Furthermore, using sediment volume calculations and corresponding erosion rates, we show a generally decreasing trend in geomorphic activity (amount of sediment yield) between the different time periods in 10 out of 12 sites, while 2 sites show an opposite trend, where morphodynamics increase and remain at the same level. Finally, we summarise the results of long-term changes in the morphodynamics of geomorphologically active areas on lateral moraines by presenting the “sediment activity concept”, which, in contrast to theoretical models, is based on actually calculated erosion. The level of geomorphic activity depends strongly on the characteristics of the sites, such as size, slope length, and slope gradient, some of which are associated with deeply incised gullies. It is noticeable that especially areas with influence of dead ice over decades in the lower slope area show high geomorphic activity. Furthermore, we show that system internal factors, as well as the general paraglacial adjustment process, have a great","PeriodicalId":48749,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Dynamics","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139968321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Coevolving edge rounding and shape of glacial erratics: the case of Shap granite, UK","authors":"Paul A. Carling","doi":"10.5194/esurf-12-381-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-381-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The size distributions and the shapes of detrital rock clasts can shed light on the environmental history of the clast assemblages and the processes responsible for clast comminution. For example, mechanical fracture due to the stresses imposed on a basal rock surface by a body of flowing glacial ice releases initial “parent” shapes of large blocks of rock from an outcrop, which then are modified by the mechanics of abrasion and fracture during subglacial transport. The latter processes produce subsequent generations of shapes, possibly distinct in form from the parent blocks. A complete understanding of both the processes responsible for block shape changes and the trends in shape adjustment with time and distance away from the source outcrop is lacking. Field data on edge rounding and shape changes of Shap granite blocks (dispersed by Devensian ice eastwards from the outcrop) are used herein to explore the systematic changes in block form with distance from the outcrop. The degree of edge rounding for individual blocks increases in a punctuated fashion with the distance from the outcrop as blocks fracture repeatedly to introduce new fresh unrounded edges. In contrast, block shape is conservative, with parent blocks fracturing to produce self-similar “child” shapes with distance. Measured block shapes evolve in accord with two well-known models for block fracture mechanics – (1) stochastic and (2) silver ratio models – towards one or the other of these two attractor states. Progressive reduction in block size, in accord with fracture mechanics, reflects the fact that most blocks were transported at the sole of the ice mass and were subject to the compressive and tensile forces of the ice acting on the stoss surfaces of blocks lying against a bedrock or till surface. The interpretations might apply to a range of homogeneous hard rock lithologies.","PeriodicalId":48749,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Dynamics","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139967556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A simple model for faceted topographies at normal faults based on an extended stream-power law","authors":"Stefan Hergarten","doi":"10.5194/egusphere-2024-336","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-336","url":null,"abstract":"<strong>Abstract.</strong> Faceted topographies at normal faults have been studied for more than a century. Since the dip angle of the facets is typically much lower than the dip angle of the fault, it is clear that the facets are not just the exhumed footwall, but have been eroded considerably. It has also been shown that a constant erosion rate in combination with a constant rate of displacement can explain the occurrence of planar facets. Quantitatively, however, the formation of faceted topographies is still not fully understood. In this study, the shared stream-power model for fluvial erosion and sediment transport is used in combination with a recently published extension for hillslopes. As a major theoretical result, it is found that the ratio of the tangent of the facet angle and the dip angle of the fault as well as the ratio of baseline length and horizontal width of perfect triangular facets mainly depends on the ratio of the horizontal rate of displacement and the hillslope erodibility. Numerical simulations reveal that horizontal displacement is crucial for the formation of triangular facets. For vertical faults, facets are rather polygonal and much longer than wide. While the sizes of individual facets vary strongly, the average size is controlled by the ratio of hillslope erodibility and fluvial erodibility.","PeriodicalId":48749,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Dynamics","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139967910","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pliocene shorelines and the epeirogenic motion of continental margins: A target dataset for dynamic topography models","authors":"Andrew Hollyday, Maureen E. Raymo, Jacqueline Austermann, Fred Richards, Mark Hoggard, Alessio Rovere","doi":"10.5194/egusphere-2023-2099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2099","url":null,"abstract":"<strong>Abstract.</strong> Global mean sea level during the mid-Pliocene Epoch (~3 Ma), when CO₂ and temperatures were above present levels, was notably higher than today due to reduced global ice sheet coverage. Nevertheless, the extent to which ice sheets responded to Pliocene warmth remains in question, owing to high levels of uncertainty in proxy-based sea-level reconstructions as well as solid Earth dynamic models that have been used to evaluate a limited number of data constraints. Here, we present a global dataset of ten wavecut scarps that formed by successive Pliocene sea-level oscillations and which are observed today at elevations ranging from ~6 to 109 m above sea level. The present-day elevations of these features have been identified using a combination of high-resolution digital elevation models and field mapping. Using the MATLAB interface TerraceM, we extrapolate the cliff and platform surfaces to determine the elevation of the scarp toe, which in most settings is buried under meters of talus. We correct the scarp-toe elevations for glacial isostatic adjustment and find that this process alone cannot explain observed differences in Pliocene paleoshoreline elevations around the globe. We next determine the signal associated with mantle dynamic topography by back-advecting the present-day three-dimensional buoyancy structure of the mantle and calculating the difference in radial surface stresses over the last 3 Myr using the convection code ASPECT. We include a wide range of present-day mantle structures (buoyancy and viscosity) constrained by seismic tomography models, geodynamic observations, and rock mechanics laboratory experiments. Finally, we identify preferred dynamic topography change predictions based on their agreement with scarp elevations and use our most confident result to estimate a Pliocene global mean sea level based on one scarp from De Hoop, South Africa. This inference (11.6 ± 5.2 m) is a downward revision and may imply ice sheets were relatively resistant to warm Pliocene climate conditions. We also conclude, however, that more targeted model development is needed to more reliably infer mid-Pliocene global mean sea level based on all scarps mapped in this study.","PeriodicalId":48749,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Dynamics","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139956956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Geomorphic indices for unveiling fault segmentation and tectono-geomorphic evolution with insights into the impact of inherited topography, Ulsan Fault Zone, Korea","authors":"Cho-Hee Lee, Yeong Bae Seong, John Weber, Sangmin Ha, Dong-Eun Kim, Byung Yong Yu","doi":"10.5194/egusphere-2024-198","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-198","url":null,"abstract":"<strong>Abstract.</strong> Quantifying present topography can provide insights into landscape evolution and its controls, as the present topography is a cumulative expression of the types, distributions, and intensities of past and present processes. The Ulsan Fault Zone (UFZ) is an active fault zone on the southeastern Korean Peninsula that has been reactivated as a reverse fault around 5 Ma. This NNW–SSE-trending fault zone exhibits a predominantly reverse sense of movement today and dips towards the east. This study investigates the history of tectonic activity along the UFZ and the landscape evolution of the hanging wall side of the UFZ, focusing on neotectonic perturbations using ¹⁰Be-derived catchment-wide denudation rate and bedrock incision rates, geomorphic indices, and a landscape evolution model. We evaluated the spatial variation in the relative tectonic intensity from the variation in geomorphic indices along the UFZ. Five geological segments were identified along the fault based on the relative tectonic intensity and fault geometry. We then simulated four cases of landscape evolution using modelling to investigate the geomorphic processes and topographic changes in the study area in response to fault slip. The model results reveal that the geomorphic processes and the patterns of geomorphic indices (e.g., χ anomalies) depend on the inherited topography (i.e., the topography that existed prior to reverse faulting on the UFZ). On the basis of this important finding, we interpret the tectono-geomorphic history of the study area as follows: (1) the northern part of the UFZ has been in a transient state and is in topographic and geometric disequilibrium, as this part underwent asymmetric uplift (westward tilting) prior to reverse faulting on the UFZ around 5 Ma; and (2) its southern part was negligibly influenced by the asymmetric uplift before reverse faulting. Our study demonstrates geomorphic indices as reliable criteria for dividing faults into segments and, together with landscape evolution modelling, to investigate the influence of inherited topography on present topography and to help determine tectono-geomorphic histories.","PeriodicalId":48749,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Dynamics","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139921565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Autogenic vs Subsidence Controls on Grain Size Fining through Multi-Channel Landscape Evolution Modelling","authors":"Amanda Lily Wild, Jean Braun, Alexander C. Whittaker, Sebastien Castelltort","doi":"10.5194/egusphere-2024-351","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-351","url":null,"abstract":"<strong>Abstract.</strong> Within the stratigraphic record, changes in grain size are often interpreted as a signature of external forcing events. However, it is not yet well constrained how autogenic processes (such as channel mobility) influence grain size signatures within the fluvial system. Here, we combine a landscape evolution model based on the Stream Power Law but modified for sedimentation (Yuan et al., 2019) with an extension of the self-similar grain size model Fedele and Paola (2007) to multiple dimensions (i.e., along dynamically evolving river channels) to study the relative importance of autogenic processes in con- trolling grain size fining. We first show how our new model can reproduce the results obtained by classical analytical solutions assuming that fining is controlled by subsidence only, in a single or amalgamated channel. We then show that deviations from past (subsidence and single channel only) predictions arise when varying two main parameters: first the ratio between the incoming sediment flux and integrated subsidence rate (<em>F</em> ), which increases with the degree of bypass of the system; and second, the ratio of the discharge leaving the mountain to the discharge generated within the subsiding basin (<em>β</em>), which controls the shape of the topography of the basin. We demonstrate that there exists two regimes, one corresponding to low values of <em>F</em> or high values of <em>β</em>, where the grain size fining is controlled by subsidence, and one corresponding to high <em>F</em> and low <em>β</em> values, where grain size fining is controlled by autogenic processes under steep topographic slopes that propagate sedimentary waves through the basin. Coupling the LEM to a flexural model predicts that grain size fining evolves from subsidence to autogeniccontrol in basins characterized by a progressive increase of <em>F</em> (under-filled to over-filled foreland), as seen in the case example of the Alberta Foreland Basin. Our results indicate that grain size fining during low filling conditions (e.g. early stage as the basin is forming) can indicate the dominantly tectonic controlled parameter of the flux relative to underlying subsidence ratio (<em>F</em> ); whereas, any fining under high bypass conditions (e.g. late stage once the basin is overfilled) can indicate the climate controlled upstream vs downstream ratio (<em>β</em>).","PeriodicalId":48749,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Dynamics","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139921569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How water, temperature and seismicity control the preparation of massive rock slope failure (Hochvogel, DE/AT)","authors":"Johannes Leinauer, Michael Dietze, Sibylle Knapp, Riccardo Scandroglio, Maximilian Jokel, Michael Krautblatter","doi":"10.5194/egusphere-2024-231","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-231","url":null,"abstract":"<strong>Abstract.</strong> The increasing hazard of major rock slope failures, exacerbated by climate change, underscores the importance of anticipating pre-failure process dynamics. While standard triggers are recognized for small rockfalls, few comprehensive driver quantifications exist for massive pre-failure rock slopes. Here we exploit &gt;4 years multi-method high-resolution monitoring data from a well-prepared high-magnitude rock slope instability. To quantify and understand the effect of possible drivers – water from rain and snowmelt, internal rock fracturing and earthquakes – we correlate slope displacements with environmental data, local seismic recordings and earthquake catalogues. During the snowmelt phase, displacements are controlled by meltwater infiltration with high correlation and a time lag of 4–9 days. During the snow-free summer, rainfall drives the system with a time lag of 1–16 h for up to several days without a minimum activation rain sum threshold. Detected rock fracturing, linked to temperature and freeze-thaw cycles, is predominantly surface-near and unrelated to displacement rates. A classic Newmark analysis of recent and historic earthquakes indicates a low potential for immediate triggering of a major failure at the case site, unless it is already very close to failure. Seismic topographic amplification of the peak ground velocity at the summit ranges from a factor of 2–11 and is spatially heterogeneous, indicating a high criticality of the slope. The presented methodological approach enables a comprehensive rockfall driver evaluation and indicates where future climatic changes, e.g. in precipitation intensity and frequency, may alter the preparation of major rock slope failures.","PeriodicalId":48749,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Dynamics","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139759278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}