International Security最新文献_第2页

Dealers and Brokers in Civil Wars: Why States Delegate Rebel Support to Conduit Countries 内战中的交易商和经纪人:为什么国家把叛军支持给导管国家

IF 5 1区社会学

International Security Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00461

Niklas Karlén, Vladimir Rauta

{"title":"Dealers and Brokers in Civil Wars: Why States Delegate Rebel Support to Conduit Countries","authors":"Niklas Karlén, Vladimir Rauta","doi":"10.1162/isec_a_00461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00461","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract External state support to non-state armed groups is commonly seen as a direct relationship between a state sponsor and a rebel group. But powerful states often use third-party states as conduits of military aid. These intermediary states are secondary, subordinate principals that are part of extended chains of “dual delegation.” Because intermediaries are likely to have their own separate agendas, powerful states often face a double principal-agent problem when providing material support to rebel groups. The difficulties and problems associated with controlling the agent are reflected in the relationship between the principal and the intermediary. States need to identify the alignment of interests at an early stage, or risk strategic failure. There are two ideal types of intermediaries—dealers and brokers. Case studies of the United States’ support to the Mujahideen in Afghanistan and to UNITA in Angola (channeled through Pakistan and Zaire, respectively) demonstrate that intermediaries affect the provision of external support. States engaging in counterterrorism need to look beyond sponsors of terrorism and explore the role of all states involved in the process of conflict delegation. That states use intermediaries when providing support to non-state armed groups indicates that holding states accountable for violating the nonintervention principle under international law should be reconsidered.","PeriodicalId":48667,"journal":{"name":"International Security","volume":"15 1","pages":"107-146"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89148640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Racism, Stereotypes, and War 种族主义、刻板印象和战争

1区社会学

International Security Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00469

Jonathan Mercer

引用次数: 0

The Psychology of Nuclear Brinkmanship 核边缘政策的心理学

IF 5 1区社会学

International Security Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00451

Reid B. C. Pauly, Rose McDermott

{"title":"The Psychology of Nuclear Brinkmanship","authors":"Reid B. C. Pauly, Rose McDermott","doi":"10.1162/isec_a_00451","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00451","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Conventional wisdom sees nuclear brinkmanship and Thomas Schelling's pathbreaking “threat that leaves something to chance” as a solution to the problem of agency in coercion. If leaders cannot credibly threaten to start a nuclear war, perhaps they can at least introduce uncertainty by signaling that the decision is out of their hands. It is not so easy to remove humans from crisis decision-making, however. Often in cases of nuclear brinkmanship, a human being retains a choice about whether to escalate. When two sides engage in rational decision-making, the chance of strategic nuclear exchange should be zero. Scholars have explained how risks associated with accidents, false warnings, and pre-delegation creep into nuclear crises. An investigation of how chance can still produce leverage while leaders retain a choice over whether and when to escalate adds to this scholarship. There remains an element of choice in chance. For a complete understanding of nuclear brinkmanship, psychology and emotion must be added to the analysis to explain how leaders make decisions under pressure. Human emotions can introduce chance into bargaining in ways that contradict the expectations of the rational cost-benefit assumptions that undergird deterrence theory. Three mechanisms of nuclear brinkmanship—accidents, self-control, and control of others—illustrate how a loss of control over the use of nuclear weapons is not a necessary element of the threat that leaves something to chance. Choice does not have to be eliminated for a risk of catastrophic destruction to remain.","PeriodicalId":48667,"journal":{"name":"International Security","volume":"50 1","pages":"9-51"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91244126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Rise or Recede? How Climate Disasters Affect Armed Conflict Intensity 上升还是下降?气候灾害如何影响武装冲突强度

IF 5 1区社会学

International Security Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00459

T. Ide

{"title":"Rise or Recede? How Climate Disasters Affect Armed Conflict Intensity","authors":"T. Ide","doi":"10.1162/isec_a_00459","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00459","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Disasters play a key role in debates about climate change, environmental stress, and security. A qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) investigates how major climate-related disasters shape the dynamics of ongoing armed conflicts. Quantitative and qualitative data are presented for twenty-one cases across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. After climate-related disasters, 29 percent of these armed conflicts escalated, 33 percent de-escalated, and 38 percent did not change. Furthermore, only countries highly vulnerable to disasters experienced changes in conflict dynamics. Armed conflicts tend to escalate when the disaster induces shifts in relative power, whereby one conflict party (usually the rebels) subsequently scales up its military efforts. But if at least one conflict party is weakened by a disaster and the other lacks the capability to exploit this change, armed conflict intensity declines. Findings provide empirical support for a proposed power differential mechanism connecting climate-related disasters to armed conflict dynamics via short-term shifts in power relations between the conflict parties. Climate change can also act as a threat reducer by temporarily causing lower conflict intensity.","PeriodicalId":48667,"journal":{"name":"International Security","volume":"39 1","pages":"50-78"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76422664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

“Wars without Gun Smoke”: Global Supply Chains, Power Transitions, and Economic Statecraft 《没有硝烟的战争》:全球供应链、权力转移和经济治国方略

1区社会学

International Security Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00473

Ling S. Chen, Miles M. Evers

{"title":"“Wars without Gun Smoke”: Global Supply Chains, Power Transitions, and Economic Statecraft","authors":"Ling S. Chen, Miles M. Evers","doi":"10.1162/isec_a_00473","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00473","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Conventional wisdom holds that conflict is highly likely during a power transition between declining and rising powers. The spread of global supply chains has provided new economic weapons for great powers waging these conflicts, but the businesses that constitute global supply chains can make it harder or easier for them to do so. A structural theory of business-state relations shows how power transitions affect a state's ability to exercise economic statecraft. As a dominant power and a rising power approach parity, they face structural incentives to use economic statecraft to decouple their economies. The resulting threat to businesses’ profits changes business-state relations: high-value businesses within the dominant power tend to oppose their state's use of economic statecraft, whereas low-value businesses within the rising power tend to cooperate with their state's use of economic statecraft. The Anglo-German power transition from 1890 to 1914 and the U.S.-China power transition since 1990 illustrate the theory. The findings shift scholarly debates on the use of economic statecraft in modern great power competition and have policy implications for weaponizing supply chains against rising powers like China.","PeriodicalId":48667,"journal":{"name":"International Security","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135613429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Push and Pull on the Periphery: Inadvertent Expansion in World Politics 边缘的推与拉:世界政治中的无意扩张

IF 5 1区社会学

International Security Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00454

N. Anderson

{"title":"Push and Pull on the Periphery: Inadvertent Expansion in World Politics","authors":"N. Anderson","doi":"10.1162/isec_a_00454","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00454","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Why do great powers engage in territorial expansion? Much of the existing literature views expansion as a largely intentional activity directed by the leaders of powerful states. Yet nearly 25 percent of important historical instances of great power expansion are initiated by actors on the periphery of the state or empire without authorization from their superiors at the center. Periphery-driven “inadvertent expansion” is most likely to occur when leaders in the capital have limited control over their agents on the periphery. Through their actions, peripheral agents effectively constrain leaders from withdrawing from these newly captured territories because of sunk costs, domestic political pressure, and national honor. When leaders in the capital expect geopolitical consequences from regional or other great powers, such as economic sanctions, militarized crises, or war, they are far less likely to authorize the territorial claims. A mixed-methods research strategy combines new quantitative data on great power territorial expansion with three qualitative case studies of successful (and failed) inadvertent expansion by Russia, Japan, and France. Inadvertent expansion has not completely gone away, particularly among smaller states, where government authority can be weak, control over states’ apparatuses can be loose, and civil-military relations can be challenging.","PeriodicalId":48667,"journal":{"name":"International Security","volume":"5 1","pages":"136-173"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83717455","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Social Cohesion and Community Displacement in Armed Conflict 武装冲突中的社会凝聚力和社区流离失所

IF 5 1区社会学

International Security Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00452

D. Arnon, Richard J. McAlexander, Michael A. Rubin

{"title":"Social Cohesion and Community Displacement in Armed Conflict","authors":"D. Arnon, Richard J. McAlexander, Michael A. Rubin","doi":"10.1162/isec_a_00452","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00452","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract What are the origins of conflict-related population displacement? Why do some communities in conflict zones suffer mass casualties while others evade conflict violence? Whether civilians migrate before or after belligerent operations in their vicinity influences the scale of casualties and population displacement in war. “Preemptive evacuation” is a specific manifestation of forced displacement, in which whole communities leave their homes before belligerents attempt to seize control in their local area. In conflicts involving strategic civilian-targeted violence, social cohesion, by promoting collective action, enhances communities’ capabilities to mobilize collective migration, thereby increasing the likelihood of preemptive evacuation. An investigation of the 1948 Arab-Israeli War probes the plausibility of the theory. Detailed information about Arab Palestinian villages in the previously restricted Village Files is used to construct a village-level dataset, which measures social cohesion and other social, political, and economic characteristics. These documents and data provide crucial sources of evidence to researchers investigating Palestinian society and development, the origins of Israel's statehood, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Findings suggest that areas where communities lack social cohesion may suffer higher casualties from targeted violence, signaling a need for urgent diplomatic and humanitarian prevention or mitigation efforts.","PeriodicalId":48667,"journal":{"name":"International Security","volume":"31 1","pages":"52-94"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87305593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Path to Atonement: West Germany and Israel after the Holocaust 《赎罪之路:大屠杀后的西德和以色列

IF 5 1区社会学

International Security Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00460

Kathrin Bachleitner

引用次数: 0

The Dynamics of an Entangled Security Dilemma: China's Changing Nuclear Posture 纠缠的安全困境的动态:中国不断变化的核态势

IF 5 1区社会学

International Security Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00457

Henrik Stålhane Hiim, M. T. Fravel, Magnus Langset Trøan

{"title":"The Dynamics of an Entangled Security Dilemma: China's Changing Nuclear Posture","authors":"Henrik Stålhane Hiim, M. T. Fravel, Magnus Langset Trøan","doi":"10.1162/isec_a_00457","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00457","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Amid an intensifying rivalry with the United States, China is modernizing and significantly expanding its nuclear forces. These developments fuel concerns that China's traditional nuclear strategy premised on a limited nuclear arsenal for assured retaliation and a no-first-use policy is undergoing a major shift. Using Chinese-language materials, an examination of Chinese debates about China's security environment and the future direction of its nuclear strategy finds that a nuclear-conventional entangled security dilemma is emerging between the United States and China. The shift in the conventional balance of force in the region and the U.S. development of lower-yield nuclear weapons has led to greater fears in China of U.S. limited nuclear use in a conflict. Chinese strategists increasingly believe that U.S. nonnuclear strategic capabilities threaten China's nuclear forces. Although there is limited evidence of a shift in its nuclear strategy, China is changing its strategic posture to ensure its second-strike capability, including by relying on advanced conventional weapons (e.g., counterspace capabilities, cyber weapons, and electronic warfare) that can target U.S. missile defense. The dynamics of an entangled security dilemma may weaken arms race stability, and they underscore why it will be challenging for the United States to engage China in nuclear arms control.","PeriodicalId":48667,"journal":{"name":"International Security","volume":"16 1","pages":"147-187"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82169460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

To Punish or Protect? Local Leaders and Economic Coercion in China 惩罚还是保护?中国的地方领导人与经济胁迫

1区社会学

International Security Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00472

Kacie Miura

{"title":"To Punish or Protect? Local Leaders and Economic Coercion in China","authors":"Kacie Miura","doi":"10.1162/isec_a_00472","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00472","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract During foreign policy disputes involving China and some of its most important economic partners, why do local leaders punish or protect foreign commercial actors? Understanding this variation is important because how local leaders treat foreign businesses can influence the overall effectiveness of the Chinese government's use of economic coercion against foreign states. Two variables help determine whether local leaders participate in economic retaliation: (1) whether they regard commercial ties to the targeted state as essential to achieving the economic growth necessary for career advancement; and (2) whether they are politically vulnerable, either because they lack powerful patrons or because their locality recently experienced social unrest. Economic importance creates incentives to protect foreign commercial interests, and political vulnerability provides incentives for local leaders to demonstrate their patriotic credentials through economic retaliation. Drawing on interviews with Chinese, Korean, and Japanese sources, an examination of local leader behavior in Chinese cities illuminates why they responded differently during foreign policy disputes with Japan in 2012 and South Korea in 2017.","PeriodicalId":48667,"journal":{"name":"International Security","volume":"58 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135613329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0