Rise or Recede? How Climate Disasters Affect Armed Conflict Intensity

IF 4.8 1区社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

International Security Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.1162/isec_a_00459

T. Ide

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引用次数: 4

Abstract

Abstract Disasters play a key role in debates about climate change, environmental stress, and security. A qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) investigates how major climate-related disasters shape the dynamics of ongoing armed conflicts. Quantitative and qualitative data are presented for twenty-one cases across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. After climate-related disasters, 29 percent of these armed conflicts escalated, 33 percent de-escalated, and 38 percent did not change. Furthermore, only countries highly vulnerable to disasters experienced changes in conflict dynamics. Armed conflicts tend to escalate when the disaster induces shifts in relative power, whereby one conflict party (usually the rebels) subsequently scales up its military efforts. But if at least one conflict party is weakened by a disaster and the other lacks the capability to exploit this change, armed conflict intensity declines. Findings provide empirical support for a proposed power differential mechanism connecting climate-related disasters to armed conflict dynamics via short-term shifts in power relations between the conflict parties. Climate change can also act as a threat reducer by temporarily causing lower conflict intensity.

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上升还是下降?气候灾害如何影响武装冲突强度

灾害在关于气候变化、环境压力和安全的辩论中扮演着关键角色。一项定性比较分析(QCA)调查了与气候有关的重大灾害如何影响正在进行的武装冲突的动态。定量和定性数据提出了21个案例在非洲，亚洲和中东。在与气候有关的灾害发生后，29%的武装冲突升级，33%的武装冲突降级，38%的武装冲突没有发生变化。此外，只有最易受灾害影响的国家才经历了冲突动态的变化。当灾难导致相对权力的转移时，武装冲突往往会升级，冲突一方(通常是叛军)随后会扩大其军事力量。但是，如果至少有一方因灾难而被削弱，而另一方缺乏利用这种变化的能力，武装冲突的强度就会下降。研究结果为通过冲突各方之间权力关系的短期变化将气候相关灾害与武装冲突动态联系起来的权力差异机制提供了实证支持。气候变化还可以通过暂时降低冲突强度来减少威胁。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Security Social Sciences-Law

CiteScore

7.40

自引率

10.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： International Security publishes lucid, well-documented essays on the full range of contemporary security issues. Its articles address traditional topics of war and peace, as well as more recent dimensions of security, including environmental, demographic, and humanitarian issues, transnational networks, and emerging technologies. International Security has defined the debate on US national security policy and set the agenda for scholarship on international security affairs for more than forty years. The journal values scholarship that challenges the conventional wisdom, examines policy, engages theory, illuminates history, and discovers new trends. Readers of IS discover new developments in: The causes and prevention of war U.S.-China relations Great power politics Ethnic conflict and intra-state war Terrorism and insurgency Regional security in Africa, Asia, Europe, and Latin America U.S. foreign and defense policy International relations theory Diplomatic and military history Cybersecurity and defense technology Political economy, business, and security Nuclear proliferation.