Journal of Causal Inference最新文献

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Estimating complier average causal effects for clustered RCTs when the treatment affects the service population 当治疗影响到服务人群时,估计聚类随机对照试验的编译器平均因果效应
IF 1.4 4区 医学
Journal of Causal Inference Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/jci-2022-0033
Peter Z. Schochet
{"title":"Estimating complier average causal effects for clustered RCTs when the treatment affects the service population","authors":"Peter Z. Schochet","doi":"10.1515/jci-2022-0033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2022-0033","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) sometimes test interventions that aim to improve existing services targeted to a subset of individuals identified after randomization. Accordingly, the treatment could affect the composition of service recipients and the offered services. With such bias, intention-to-treat estimates using data on service recipients and nonrecipients may be difficult to interpret. This article develops causal estimands and inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimators for complier populations in these settings, using a generalized estimating equation approach that adjusts the standard errors for estimation error in the IPW weights. While our focus is on more general clustered RCTs, the methods also apply (reduce) to nonclustered RCTs. Simulations show that the estimators achieve nominal confidence interval coverage under the assumed identification conditions. An empirical application demonstrates the methods using data from a large-scale RCT testing the effects of early childhood services on children’s cognitive development scores. An R program for estimation is available for download.","PeriodicalId":48576,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Causal Inference","volume":"664 1","pages":"300 - 334"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79033986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Causal inference in AI education: A primer 人工智能教育中的因果推理:入门
IF 1.4 4区 医学
Journal of Causal Inference Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/jci-2021-0048
A. Forney, Scott Mueller
{"title":"Causal inference in AI education: A primer","authors":"A. Forney, Scott Mueller","doi":"10.1515/jci-2021-0048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2021-0048","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The study of causal inference has seen recent momentum in machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI), particularly in the domains of transfer learning, reinforcement learning, automated diagnostics, and explainability (among others). Yet, despite its increasing application to address many of the boundaries in modern AI, causal topics remain absent in most AI curricula. This work seeks to bridge this gap by providing classroom-ready introductions that integrate into traditional topics in AI, suggests intuitive graphical tools for the application to both new and traditional lessons in probabilistic and causal reasoning, and presents avenues for instructors to impress the merit of climbing the “causal hierarchy” to address problems at the levels of associational, interventional, and counterfactual inference. Finally, this study shares anecdotal instructor experiences, successes, and challenges integrating these lessons at multiple levels of education.","PeriodicalId":48576,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Causal Inference","volume":"2015 1","pages":"141 - 173"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87012898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Doubly robust estimators for generalizing treatment effects on survival outcomes from randomized controlled trials to a target population. 将随机对照试验对生存结果的治疗效果推广到目标人群的双稳健估计器。
IF 1.7 4区 医学
Journal of Causal Inference Pub Date : 2022-01-01 Epub Date: 2022-12-09 DOI: 10.1515/jci-2022-0004
Dasom Lee, Shu Yang, Xiaofei Wang
{"title":"Doubly robust estimators for generalizing treatment effects on survival outcomes from randomized controlled trials to a target population.","authors":"Dasom Lee, Shu Yang, Xiaofei Wang","doi":"10.1515/jci-2022-0004","DOIUrl":"10.1515/jci-2022-0004","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In the presence of heterogeneity between the randomized controlled trial (RCT) participants and the target population, evaluating the treatment effect solely based on the RCT often leads to biased quantification of the real-world treatment effect. To address the problem of lack of generalizability for the treatment effect estimated by the RCT sample, we leverage observational studies with large samples that are representative of the target population. This article concerns evaluating treatment effects on survival outcomes for a target population and considers a broad class of estimands that are functionals of treatment-specific survival functions, including differences in survival probability and restricted mean survival times. Motivated by two intuitive but distinct approaches, i.e., imputation based on survival outcome regression and weighting based on inverse probability of sampling, censoring, and treatment assignment, we propose a semiparametric estimator through the guidance of the efficient influence function. The proposed estimator is doubly robust in the sense that it is consistent for the target population estimands if either the survival model or the weighting model is correctly specified and is locally efficient when both are correct. In addition, as an alternative to parametric estimation, we employ the nonparametric method of sieves for flexible and robust estimation of the nuisance functions and show that the resulting estimator retains the root-<i>n</i> consistency and efficiency, the so-called rate-double robustness. Simulation studies confirm the theoretical properties of the proposed estimator and show that it outperforms competitors. We apply the proposed method to estimate the effect of adjuvant chemotherapy on survival in patients with early-stage resected non-small cell lung cancer.</p>","PeriodicalId":48576,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Causal Inference","volume":"10 1","pages":"415-440"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10457100/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10119183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Identifying HIV sequences that escape antibody neutralization using random forests and collaborative targeted learning 利用随机森林和协作目标学习识别逃避抗体中和的HIV序列
IF 1.4 4区 医学
Journal of Causal Inference Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/jci-2021-0053
Yutong Jin, D. Benkeser
{"title":"Identifying HIV sequences that escape antibody neutralization using random forests and collaborative targeted learning","authors":"Yutong Jin, D. Benkeser","doi":"10.1515/jci-2021-0053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2021-0053","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Recent studies have indicated that it is possible to protect individuals from HIV infection using passive infusion of monoclonal antibodies. However, in order for monoclonal antibodies to confer robust protection, the antibodies must be capable of neutralizing many possible strains of the virus. This is particularly challenging in the context of a highly diverse pathogen like HIV. It is therefore of great interest to leverage existing observational data sources to discover antibodies that are able to neutralize HIV viruses via residues where existing antibodies show modest protection. Such information feeds directly into the clinical trial pipeline for monoclonal antibody therapies by providing information on (i) whether and to what extent combinations of antibodies can generate superior protection and (ii) strategies for analyzing past clinical trials to identify in vivo evidence of antibody resistance. These observational data include genetic features of many diverse HIV genetic sequences, as well as in vitro measures of antibody resistance. The statistical learning problem we are interested in is developing statistical methodology that can be used to analyze these data to identify important genetic features that are significantly associated with antibody resistance. This is a challenging problem owing to the high-dimensional and strongly correlated nature of the genetic sequence data. To overcome these challenges, we propose an outcome-adaptive, collaborative targeted minimum loss-based estimation approach using random forests. We demonstrate via simulation that the approach enjoys important statistical benefits over existing approaches in terms of bias, mean squared error, and type I error. We apply the approach to the Compile, Analyze, and Tally Nab Panels database to identify AA positions that are potentially causally related to resistance to neutralization by several different antibodies.","PeriodicalId":48576,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Causal Inference","volume":"43 1","pages":"280 - 295"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73879080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bias attenuation results for dichotomization of a continuous confounder 偏置衰减的结果为二分类的连续混杂
IF 1.4 4区 医学
Journal of Causal Inference Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/jci-2022-0047
E. Gabriel, J. M. Pena, A. Sjölander
{"title":"Bias attenuation results for dichotomization of a continuous confounder","authors":"E. Gabriel, J. M. Pena, A. Sjölander","doi":"10.1515/jci-2022-0047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2022-0047","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract It is well-known that dichotomization can cause bias and loss of efficiency in estimation. One can easily construct examples where adjusting for a dichotomized confounder causes bias in causal estimation. There are additional examples in the literature where adjusting for a dichotomized confounder can be more biased than not adjusting at all. The message is clear, do not dichotomize. What is unclear is if there are scenarios where adjusting for the dichotomized confounder always leads to lower bias than not adjusting. We propose several sets of conditions that characterize scenarios where one should always adjust for the dichotomized confounder to reduce bias. We then highlight scenarios where the decision to adjust should be made more cautiously. To our knowledge, this is the first formal presentation of conditions that give information about when one should and potentially should not adjust for a dichotomized confounder.","PeriodicalId":48576,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Causal Inference","volume":"15 1","pages":"515 - 526"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88518511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Optimal weighting for estimating generalized average treatment effects 估计广义平均处理效果的最优加权
IF 1.4 4区 医学
Journal of Causal Inference Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/jci-2021-0018
Nathan Kallus, Michele Santacatterina
{"title":"Optimal weighting for estimating generalized average treatment effects","authors":"Nathan Kallus, Michele Santacatterina","doi":"10.1515/jci-2021-0018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2021-0018","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In causal inference, a variety of causal effect estimands have been studied, including the sample, uncensored, target, conditional, optimal subpopulation, and optimal weighted average treatment effects. Ad hoc methods have been developed for each estimand based on inverse probability weighting (IPW) and on outcome regression modeling, but these may be sensitive to model misspecification, practical violations of positivity, or both. The contribution of this article is twofold. First, we formulate the generalized average treatment effect (GATE) to unify these causal estimands as well as their IPW estimates. Second, we develop a method based on Kernel optimal matching (KOM) to optimally estimate GATE and to find the GATE most easily estimable by KOM, which we term the Kernel optimal weighted average treatment effect. KOM provides uniform control on the conditional mean squared error of a weighted estimator over a class of models while simultaneously controlling for precision. We study its theoretical properties and evaluate its comparative performance in a simulation study. We illustrate the use of KOM for GATE estimation in two case studies: comparing spine surgical interventions and studying the effect of peer support on people living with HIV.","PeriodicalId":48576,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Causal Inference","volume":"126 1","pages":"123 - 140"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87728464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Decision-theoretic foundations for statistical causality: Response to Shpitser 统计因果关系的决策理论基础:对Shpitser的回应
IF 1.4 4区 医学
Journal of Causal Inference Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/jci-2022-0013
P. Dawid
{"title":"Decision-theoretic foundations for statistical causality: Response to Shpitser","authors":"P. Dawid","doi":"10.1515/jci-2022-0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2022-0013","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract I thank Ilya Shpitser for his comments on my article, and discuss the use of models with restricted interventions.","PeriodicalId":48576,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Causal Inference","volume":"7 1","pages":"217 - 220"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76057063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
A note on efficient minimum cost adjustment sets in causal graphical models 因果图模型中有效最小成本调整集的注释
IF 1.4 4区 医学
Journal of Causal Inference Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/jci-2022-0015
Ezequiel Smucler, A. Rotnitzky
{"title":"A note on efficient minimum cost adjustment sets in causal graphical models","authors":"Ezequiel Smucler, A. Rotnitzky","doi":"10.1515/jci-2022-0015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2022-0015","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We study the selection of adjustment sets for estimating the interventional mean under an individualized treatment rule. We assume a non-parametric causal graphical model with, possibly, hidden variables and at least one adjustment set composed of observable variables. Moreover, we assume that observable variables have positive costs associated with them. We define the cost of an observable adjustment set as the sum of the costs of the variables that comprise it. We show that in this setting there exist adjustment sets that are minimum cost optimal, in the sense that they yield non-parametric estimators of the interventional mean with the smallest asymptotic variance among those that control for observable adjustment sets that have minimum cost. Our results are based on the construction of a special flow network associated with the original causal graph. We show that a minimum cost optimal adjustment set can be found by computing a maximum flow on the network, and then finding the set of vertices that are reachable from the source by augmenting paths. The optimaladj Python package implements the algorithms introduced in this article.","PeriodicalId":48576,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Causal Inference","volume":"7 1","pages":"174 - 189"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78734030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Treatment effect optimisation in dynamic environments 动态环境下的治疗效果优化
IF 1.4 4区 医学
Journal of Causal Inference Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/jci-2020-0009
Jeroen Berrevoets, Sam Verboven, W. Verbeke
{"title":"Treatment effect optimisation in dynamic environments","authors":"Jeroen Berrevoets, Sam Verboven, W. Verbeke","doi":"10.1515/jci-2020-0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2020-0009","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Applying causal methods to fields such as healthcare, marketing, and economics receives increasing interest. In particular, optimising the individual-treatment-effect – often referred to as uplift modelling – has peaked in areas such as precision medicine and targeted advertising. While existing techniques have proven useful in many settings, they suffer vividly in a dynamic environment. To address this issue, we propose a novel optimisation target that is easily incorporated in bandit algorithms. Incorporating this target creates a causal model which we name an uplifted contextual multi-armed bandit. Experiments on real and simulated data show the proposed method to effectively improve upon the state-of-the-art. All our code is made available online at https://github.com/vub-dl/u-cmab.","PeriodicalId":48576,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Causal Inference","volume":"1 1","pages":"106 - 122"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77372681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Causal inference with imperfect instrumental variables 不完全工具变量下的因果推理
IF 1.4 4区 医学
Journal of Causal Inference Pub Date : 2021-11-04 DOI: 10.1515/jci-2021-0065
N. Miklin, M. Gachechiladze, George Moreno, R. Chaves
{"title":"Causal inference with imperfect instrumental variables","authors":"N. Miklin, M. Gachechiladze, George Moreno, R. Chaves","doi":"10.1515/jci-2021-0065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2021-0065","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Instrumental variables allow for quantification of cause and effect relationships even in the absence of interventions. To achieve this, a number of causal assumptions must be met, the most important of which is the independence assumption, which states that the instrument and any confounding factor must be independent. However, if this independence condition is not met, can we still work with imperfect instrumental variables? Imperfect instruments can manifest themselves by violations of the instrumental inequalities that constrain the set of correlations in the scenario. In this article, we establish a quantitative relationship between such violations of instrumental inequalities and the minimal amount of measurement dependence required to explain them for the case of discrete observed variables. As a result, we provide adapted inequalities that are valid in the presence of a relaxed measurement dependence assumption in the instrumental scenario. This allows for the adaptation of existing and new lower bounds on the average causal effect for instrumental scenarios with binary outcomes. Finally, we discuss our findings in the context of quantum mechanics.","PeriodicalId":48576,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Causal Inference","volume":"232 1","pages":"45 - 63"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2021-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76562151","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
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