Journal of Causal Inference最新文献

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Decision-theoretic foundations for statistical causality: Response to Pearl 统计因果关系的决策理论基础:对Pearl的回应
IF 1.4 4区 医学
Journal of Causal Inference Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/jci-2022-0056
P. Dawid
{"title":"Decision-theoretic foundations for statistical causality: Response to Pearl","authors":"P. Dawid","doi":"10.1515/jci-2022-0056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2022-0056","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract I thank Judea Pearl for his discussion of my paper and respond to the points he raises. In particular, his attachment to unaugmented directed acyclic graphs has led to a misapprehension of my own proposals. I also discuss the possibilities for developing a non-manipulative understanding of causality.","PeriodicalId":48576,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Causal Inference","volume":"1 1","pages":"296 - 299"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90808820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Comment on: “Decision-theoretic foundations for statistical causality” 评析:《统计因果关系的决策理论基础》
IF 1.4 4区 医学
Journal of Causal Inference Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/jci-2021-0056
I. Shpitser
{"title":"Comment on: “Decision-theoretic foundations for statistical causality”","authors":"I. Shpitser","doi":"10.1515/jci-2021-0056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2021-0056","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48576,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Causal Inference","volume":"213 1","pages":"190 - 196"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85875904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Causation and decision: On Dawid’s “Decision theoretic foundation of statistical causality” 因果关系与决策:戴维的“统计因果关系的决策理论基础”
IF 1.4 4区 医学
Journal of Causal Inference Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/jci-2022-0046
J. Pearl
{"title":"Causation and decision: On Dawid’s “Decision theoretic foundation of statistical causality”","authors":"J. Pearl","doi":"10.1515/jci-2022-0046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2022-0046","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In a recent issue of this journal, Philip Dawid (2021) proposes a framework for causal inference that is based on statistical decision theory and that is, in many aspects, compatible with the familiar framework of causal graphs (e.g., Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs)). This editorial compares the methodological features of the two frameworks as well as their epistemological basis.","PeriodicalId":48576,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Causal Inference","volume":"20 1","pages":"221 - 226"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87835946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Estimating complier average causal effects for clustered RCTs when the treatment affects the service population 当治疗影响到服务人群时,估计聚类随机对照试验的编译器平均因果效应
IF 1.4 4区 医学
Journal of Causal Inference Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/jci-2022-0033
Peter Z. Schochet
{"title":"Estimating complier average causal effects for clustered RCTs when the treatment affects the service population","authors":"Peter Z. Schochet","doi":"10.1515/jci-2022-0033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2022-0033","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) sometimes test interventions that aim to improve existing services targeted to a subset of individuals identified after randomization. Accordingly, the treatment could affect the composition of service recipients and the offered services. With such bias, intention-to-treat estimates using data on service recipients and nonrecipients may be difficult to interpret. This article develops causal estimands and inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimators for complier populations in these settings, using a generalized estimating equation approach that adjusts the standard errors for estimation error in the IPW weights. While our focus is on more general clustered RCTs, the methods also apply (reduce) to nonclustered RCTs. Simulations show that the estimators achieve nominal confidence interval coverage under the assumed identification conditions. An empirical application demonstrates the methods using data from a large-scale RCT testing the effects of early childhood services on children’s cognitive development scores. An R program for estimation is available for download.","PeriodicalId":48576,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Causal Inference","volume":"664 1","pages":"300 - 334"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79033986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Causal inference in AI education: A primer 人工智能教育中的因果推理:入门
IF 1.4 4区 医学
Journal of Causal Inference Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/jci-2021-0048
A. Forney, Scott Mueller
{"title":"Causal inference in AI education: A primer","authors":"A. Forney, Scott Mueller","doi":"10.1515/jci-2021-0048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2021-0048","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The study of causal inference has seen recent momentum in machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI), particularly in the domains of transfer learning, reinforcement learning, automated diagnostics, and explainability (among others). Yet, despite its increasing application to address many of the boundaries in modern AI, causal topics remain absent in most AI curricula. This work seeks to bridge this gap by providing classroom-ready introductions that integrate into traditional topics in AI, suggests intuitive graphical tools for the application to both new and traditional lessons in probabilistic and causal reasoning, and presents avenues for instructors to impress the merit of climbing the “causal hierarchy” to address problems at the levels of associational, interventional, and counterfactual inference. Finally, this study shares anecdotal instructor experiences, successes, and challenges integrating these lessons at multiple levels of education.","PeriodicalId":48576,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Causal Inference","volume":"2015 1","pages":"141 - 173"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87012898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Identifying HIV sequences that escape antibody neutralization using random forests and collaborative targeted learning 利用随机森林和协作目标学习识别逃避抗体中和的HIV序列
IF 1.4 4区 医学
Journal of Causal Inference Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/jci-2021-0053
Yutong Jin, D. Benkeser
{"title":"Identifying HIV sequences that escape antibody neutralization using random forests and collaborative targeted learning","authors":"Yutong Jin, D. Benkeser","doi":"10.1515/jci-2021-0053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2021-0053","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Recent studies have indicated that it is possible to protect individuals from HIV infection using passive infusion of monoclonal antibodies. However, in order for monoclonal antibodies to confer robust protection, the antibodies must be capable of neutralizing many possible strains of the virus. This is particularly challenging in the context of a highly diverse pathogen like HIV. It is therefore of great interest to leverage existing observational data sources to discover antibodies that are able to neutralize HIV viruses via residues where existing antibodies show modest protection. Such information feeds directly into the clinical trial pipeline for monoclonal antibody therapies by providing information on (i) whether and to what extent combinations of antibodies can generate superior protection and (ii) strategies for analyzing past clinical trials to identify in vivo evidence of antibody resistance. These observational data include genetic features of many diverse HIV genetic sequences, as well as in vitro measures of antibody resistance. The statistical learning problem we are interested in is developing statistical methodology that can be used to analyze these data to identify important genetic features that are significantly associated with antibody resistance. This is a challenging problem owing to the high-dimensional and strongly correlated nature of the genetic sequence data. To overcome these challenges, we propose an outcome-adaptive, collaborative targeted minimum loss-based estimation approach using random forests. We demonstrate via simulation that the approach enjoys important statistical benefits over existing approaches in terms of bias, mean squared error, and type I error. We apply the approach to the Compile, Analyze, and Tally Nab Panels database to identify AA positions that are potentially causally related to resistance to neutralization by several different antibodies.","PeriodicalId":48576,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Causal Inference","volume":"43 1","pages":"280 - 295"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73879080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Doubly robust estimators for generalizing treatment effects on survival outcomes from randomized controlled trials to a target population. 将随机对照试验对生存结果的治疗效果推广到目标人群的双稳健估计器。
IF 2.2 4区 医学
Journal of Causal Inference Pub Date : 2022-01-01 Epub Date: 2022-12-09 DOI: 10.1515/jci-2022-0004
Dasom Lee, Shu Yang, Xiaofei Wang
{"title":"Doubly robust estimators for generalizing treatment effects on survival outcomes from randomized controlled trials to a target population.","authors":"Dasom Lee, Shu Yang, Xiaofei Wang","doi":"10.1515/jci-2022-0004","DOIUrl":"10.1515/jci-2022-0004","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In the presence of heterogeneity between the randomized controlled trial (RCT) participants and the target population, evaluating the treatment effect solely based on the RCT often leads to biased quantification of the real-world treatment effect. To address the problem of lack of generalizability for the treatment effect estimated by the RCT sample, we leverage observational studies with large samples that are representative of the target population. This article concerns evaluating treatment effects on survival outcomes for a target population and considers a broad class of estimands that are functionals of treatment-specific survival functions, including differences in survival probability and restricted mean survival times. Motivated by two intuitive but distinct approaches, i.e., imputation based on survival outcome regression and weighting based on inverse probability of sampling, censoring, and treatment assignment, we propose a semiparametric estimator through the guidance of the efficient influence function. The proposed estimator is doubly robust in the sense that it is consistent for the target population estimands if either the survival model or the weighting model is correctly specified and is locally efficient when both are correct. In addition, as an alternative to parametric estimation, we employ the nonparametric method of sieves for flexible and robust estimation of the nuisance functions and show that the resulting estimator retains the root-<i>n</i> consistency and efficiency, the so-called rate-double robustness. Simulation studies confirm the theoretical properties of the proposed estimator and show that it outperforms competitors. We apply the proposed method to estimate the effect of adjuvant chemotherapy on survival in patients with early-stage resected non-small cell lung cancer.</p>","PeriodicalId":48576,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Causal Inference","volume":"10 1","pages":"415-440"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10457100/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10119183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bias attenuation results for dichotomization of a continuous confounder 偏置衰减的结果为二分类的连续混杂
IF 1.4 4区 医学
Journal of Causal Inference Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/jci-2022-0047
E. Gabriel, J. M. Pena, A. Sjölander
{"title":"Bias attenuation results for dichotomization of a continuous confounder","authors":"E. Gabriel, J. M. Pena, A. Sjölander","doi":"10.1515/jci-2022-0047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2022-0047","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract It is well-known that dichotomization can cause bias and loss of efficiency in estimation. One can easily construct examples where adjusting for a dichotomized confounder causes bias in causal estimation. There are additional examples in the literature where adjusting for a dichotomized confounder can be more biased than not adjusting at all. The message is clear, do not dichotomize. What is unclear is if there are scenarios where adjusting for the dichotomized confounder always leads to lower bias than not adjusting. We propose several sets of conditions that characterize scenarios where one should always adjust for the dichotomized confounder to reduce bias. We then highlight scenarios where the decision to adjust should be made more cautiously. To our knowledge, this is the first formal presentation of conditions that give information about when one should and potentially should not adjust for a dichotomized confounder.","PeriodicalId":48576,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Causal Inference","volume":"15 1","pages":"515 - 526"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88518511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Optimal weighting for estimating generalized average treatment effects 估计广义平均处理效果的最优加权
IF 1.4 4区 医学
Journal of Causal Inference Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/jci-2021-0018
Nathan Kallus, Michele Santacatterina
{"title":"Optimal weighting for estimating generalized average treatment effects","authors":"Nathan Kallus, Michele Santacatterina","doi":"10.1515/jci-2021-0018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2021-0018","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In causal inference, a variety of causal effect estimands have been studied, including the sample, uncensored, target, conditional, optimal subpopulation, and optimal weighted average treatment effects. Ad hoc methods have been developed for each estimand based on inverse probability weighting (IPW) and on outcome regression modeling, but these may be sensitive to model misspecification, practical violations of positivity, or both. The contribution of this article is twofold. First, we formulate the generalized average treatment effect (GATE) to unify these causal estimands as well as their IPW estimates. Second, we develop a method based on Kernel optimal matching (KOM) to optimally estimate GATE and to find the GATE most easily estimable by KOM, which we term the Kernel optimal weighted average treatment effect. KOM provides uniform control on the conditional mean squared error of a weighted estimator over a class of models while simultaneously controlling for precision. We study its theoretical properties and evaluate its comparative performance in a simulation study. We illustrate the use of KOM for GATE estimation in two case studies: comparing spine surgical interventions and studying the effect of peer support on people living with HIV.","PeriodicalId":48576,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Causal Inference","volume":"126 1","pages":"123 - 140"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87728464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Decision-theoretic foundations for statistical causality: Response to Shpitser 统计因果关系的决策理论基础:对Shpitser的回应
IF 1.4 4区 医学
Journal of Causal Inference Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/jci-2022-0013
P. Dawid
{"title":"Decision-theoretic foundations for statistical causality: Response to Shpitser","authors":"P. Dawid","doi":"10.1515/jci-2022-0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2022-0013","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract I thank Ilya Shpitser for his comments on my article, and discuss the use of models with restricted interventions.","PeriodicalId":48576,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Causal Inference","volume":"7 1","pages":"217 - 220"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76057063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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