Quarterly Journal of Economics最新文献

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Naivete-Based Discrimination Naivete-Based歧视
IF 13.7 1区 经济学
Quarterly Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2017-05-01 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJW042
Paul Heidhues, B. Kőszegi
{"title":"Naivete-Based Discrimination","authors":"Paul Heidhues, B. Kőszegi","doi":"10.1093/QJE/QJW042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/QJE/QJW042","url":null,"abstract":"We initiate the study of naivete-based discrimination, the practice of conditioning offers on external information about consumers’ naivete. Knowing that a consumer is naive increases a monopolistic or competitive firm's willingness to generate inefficiency to exploit the consumer's mistakes, so naivete-based discrimination is not Pareto-improving, can be Pareto-damaging, and often lowers total welfare when classical preference-based discrimination does not. Moreover, the effect on total welfare depends on a hitherto unemphasized market feature: the extent to which the exploitation of naive consumers distorts trade with different types of consumers. If the distortion is homogeneous across naive and sophisticated consumers, then under an arguably weak and empirically testable condition, naivete-based discrimination lowers total welfare. In contrast, if the distortion arises only for trades with sophisticated consumers, then perfect naivete-based discrimination maximizes social welfare, although imperfect discrimination often lowers welfare. If the distortion arises only for trades with naive consumers, then naivete-based discrimination has no effect on welfare. We identify applications for each of these cases. In our primary example, a credit market with present-biased borrowers, firms lend more than is socially optimal to increase the amount of interest naive borrowers unexpectedly pay, creating a homogeneous distortion. The condition for naivete-based discrimination to lower welfare is then weaker than prudence.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"132 1","pages":"1019-1054"},"PeriodicalIF":13.7,"publicationDate":"2017-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/QJE/QJW042","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41973766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 71
Technological Innovation, Resource Allocation and Growth 技术创新、资源配置与增长
IF 13.7 1区 经济学
Quarterly Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2017-05-01 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJW040
L. Kogan, L. Kogan, D. Papanikolaou, D. Papanikolaou, Amit Seru, Noah Stoffman
{"title":"Technological Innovation, Resource Allocation and Growth","authors":"L. Kogan, L. Kogan, D. Papanikolaou, D. Papanikolaou, Amit Seru, Noah Stoffman","doi":"10.1093/QJE/QJW040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/QJE/QJW040","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a new measure of the economic importance of each innovation. Our measure uses newly collected data on patents issued to US firms in the 1926 to 2010 period, combined with the stock market response to news about patents. Our patent- level estimates of private economic value are positively related to the scientific value of these patents, as measured by the number of citations that the patent receives in the future. Our new measure is associated with substantial growth, reallocation and creative destruction, consistent with the predictions of Schumpeterian growth models. Aggregating our measure suggests that technological innovation accounts for significant medium-run fluctuations in aggregate economic growth and TFP. Our measure contains additional information relative to citation-weighted patent counts; the relation between our measure and firm growth is considerably stronger. Importantly, the degree of creative destruction that is associated with our measure is higher than previous estimates, confirming that it is a useful proxy for the private valuation of patents.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"132 1","pages":"665-712"},"PeriodicalIF":13.7,"publicationDate":"2017-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/QJE/QJW040","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49277056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 145
A Method for Measuring Metabolism in Sorted Subpopulations of Complex Cell Communities Using Stable Isotope Tracing. 利用稳定同位素追踪测量复杂细胞群落分类亚群代谢的方法
IF 1.2 1区 经济学
Quarterly Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2017-02-04 DOI: 10.3791/55011
Irena Roci, Hector Gallart-Ayala, Jeramie Watrous, Mohit Jain, Craig E Wheelock, Roland Nilsson
{"title":"A Method for Measuring Metabolism in Sorted Subpopulations of Complex Cell Communities Using Stable Isotope Tracing.","authors":"Irena Roci, Hector Gallart-Ayala, Jeramie Watrous, Mohit Jain, Craig E Wheelock, Roland Nilsson","doi":"10.3791/55011","DOIUrl":"10.3791/55011","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Mammalian cell types exhibit specialized metabolism, and there is ample evidence that various co-existing cell types engage in metabolic cooperation. Moreover, even cultures of a single cell type may contain cells in distinct metabolic states, such as resting or cycling cells. Methods for measuring metabolic activities of such subpopulations are valuable tools for understanding cellular metabolism. Complex cell populations are most commonly separated using a cell sorter, and subpopulations isolated by this method can be analyzed by metabolomics methods. However, a problem with this approach is that the cell sorting procedure subjects cells to stresses that may distort their metabolism. To overcome these issues, we reasoned that the mass isotopomer distributions (MIDs) of metabolites from cells cultured with stable isotope-labeled nutrients are likely to be more stable than absolute metabolite concentrations, because MIDs are formed over longer time scales and should be less affected by short-term exposure to cell sorting conditions. Here, we describe a method based on this principle, combining cell sorting with liquid chromatography-high resolution mass spectrometry (LC-HRMS). The procedure involves analyzing three types of samples: (1) metabolite extracts obtained directly from the complex population; (2) extracts of \"mock sorted\" cells passed through the cell sorter instrument without gating any specific population; and (3) extracts of the actual sorted populations. The mock sorted cells are compared against direct extraction to verify that MIDs are indeed not altered by the cell sorting procedure itself, prior to analyzing the actual sorted populations. We show example results from HeLa cells sorted according to cell cycle phase, revealing changes in nucleotide metabolism.</p>","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"100 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2017-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5408592/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90621033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Public Protests and Policy Making 公众抗议与政策制定
IF 13.7 1区 经济学
Quarterly Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2017-02-01 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJW039
M. Battaglini
{"title":"Public Protests and Policy Making","authors":"M. Battaglini","doi":"10.1093/QJE/QJW039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/QJE/QJW039","url":null,"abstract":"Technological advances and the development of social media have made petitions, public protests, and other form of spontaneous activism increasingly common tools for individuals to influence decision makers. To study these phenomena, in this article I present a theory of petitions and public protests that explores their limits as mechanisms to aggregate information. The key assumption is that valuable information is dispersed among citizens. Through petitions and protests, citizens can signal their private information to the policy maker, who can then choose to use it or not. I first show that if citizens’ individual signals are not sufficiently precise, information aggregation is impossible, no matter how large is the population of informed citizens, even if the conflict with the policy maker is small. I then characterize the conditions on conflict and the signal structure that guarantee information aggregation. When these conditions are satisfied, I show that full information aggregation is possible as the population grows to infinity. When they are not satisfied, I show that information aggregation may still be possible if social media are available.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"132 1","pages":"485-549"},"PeriodicalIF":13.7,"publicationDate":"2017-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/QJE/QJW039","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44265401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 62
What is the Expected Return on the Market 市场的预期回报是多少
IF 13.7 1区 经济学
Quarterly Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2017-02-01 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjw034
Ian Martin
{"title":"What is the Expected Return on the Market","authors":"Ian Martin","doi":"10.1093/qje/qjw034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw034","url":null,"abstract":"I derive a lower bound on the equity premium in terms of a volatility index, SVIX, that can be calculated from index option prices. The bound implies that the equity premium is extremely volatile and that it rose above 20% at the height of the crisis in 2008. The time-series average of the lower bound is about 5%, suggesting that the bound may be approximately tight. I run predictive regressions and find that this hypothesis is not rejected by the data, so I use the SVIX index as a proxy for the equity premium and argue that the high equity premia available at times of stress largely reflect high expected returns over the very short run. I also provide a measure of the probability of a market crash, and introduce simple variance swaps, tradable contracts based on SVIX that are robust alternatives to variance swaps.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"132 1","pages":"367-433"},"PeriodicalIF":13.7,"publicationDate":"2017-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/qje/qjw034","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47005688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 327
Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago. 思考,快还是慢?芝加哥减少犯罪和辍学的一些实地实验。
IF 13.7 1区 经济学
Quarterly Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2017-02-01 Epub Date: 2016-10-10 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjw033
Sara B Heller, Anuj K Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, Harold A Pollack
{"title":"Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago.","authors":"Sara B Heller,&nbsp;Anuj K Shah,&nbsp;Jonathan Guryan,&nbsp;Jens Ludwig,&nbsp;Sendhil Mullainathan,&nbsp;Harold A Pollack","doi":"10.1093/qje/qjw033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw033","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We present the results of three large-scale randomized controlled trials (RCTs) carried out in Chicago, testing interventions to reduce crime and dropout by changing the decision making of economically disadvantaged youth. We study a program called Becoming a Man (BAM), developed by the nonprofit Youth Guidance, in two RCTs implemented in 2009-2010 and 2013-2015. In the two studies participation in the program reduced total arrests during the intervention period by 28-35%, reduced violent-crime arrests by 45-50%, improved school engagement, and in the first study where we have follow-up data, increased graduation rates by 12-19%. The third RCT tested a program with partially overlapping components carried out in the Cook County Juvenile Temporary Detention Center (JTDC), which reduced readmission rates to the facility by 21%. These large behavioral responses combined with modest program costs imply benefit-cost ratios for these interventions from 5-to-1 up to 30-to-1 or more. Our data on mechanisms are not ideal, but we find no positive evidence that these effects are due to changes in emotional intelligence or social skills, self-control or \"grit,\" or a generic mentoring effect. We find suggestive support for the hypothesis that the programs work by helping youth slow down and reflect on whether their automatic thoughts and behaviors are well suited to the situation they are in, or whether the situation could be construed differently. <i>JEL</i> Codes: C91, C93, D03, D1, I24, I3, I32, K42.</p>","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"132 1","pages":"1-54"},"PeriodicalIF":13.7,"publicationDate":"2017-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/qje/qjw033","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"35842211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 304
The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar Us Housing Credit Policy 政府资产购买的宏观经济效应:来自战后美国住房信贷政策的证据
IF 13.7 1区 经济学
Quarterly Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2017-02-01 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJY002
Andrew J. Fieldhouse, Karel Mertens, Morten O. Ravn
{"title":"The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar Us Housing Credit Policy","authors":"Andrew J. Fieldhouse, Karel Mertens, Morten O. Ravn","doi":"10.1093/QJE/QJY002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/QJE/QJY002","url":null,"abstract":"We document the portfolio activity of federal housing agencies and provide evidence on its impact on mortgage markets and the economy. Through a narrative analysis, we identify historical policy changes leading to expansions or contractions in agency mortgage holdings. Based on those regulatory events that we classify as unrelated to short-run cyclical or credit market shocks, we find that an increase in mortgage purchases by the agencies boosts mortgage lending and lowers mortgage rates. Agency purchases influence prices in other asset markets and stimulate residential investment. Using information in GSE stock prices to construct an alternative instrument for agency purchasing activity yields very similar results as our benchmark narrative identification approach.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":13.7,"publicationDate":"2017-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/QJE/QJY002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"61199797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 56
The Mission: Human Capital Transmission, Economic Persistence and Culture in South America 使命:南美洲的人力资本传递、经济持续与文化
IF 13.7 1区 经济学
Quarterly Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2017-01-24 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJY024
Felipe Valencia Caicedo
{"title":"The Mission: Human Capital Transmission, Economic Persistence and Culture in South America","authors":"Felipe Valencia Caicedo","doi":"10.1093/QJE/QJY024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/QJE/QJY024","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines the long-term consequences of a historical human capital intervention. The Jesuit order founded religious missions in 1609 among the Guarani, in modern-day Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay. Before their expulsion in 1767, missionaries instructed indigenous inhabitants in reading, writing, and various crafts. Using archival records, as well as data at the individual and municipal level, I show that in areas of former Jesuit presence—within the Guarani area—educational attainment was higher and remains so (by 10%–15%) 250 years later. These educational differences have also translated into incomes that are 10% higher today. The identification of the positive effect of the Guarani Jesuit missions emerges after comparing them with abandoned Jesuit missions and neighboring Franciscan Guarani missions. The enduring effects observed are consistent with transmission mechanisms of structural transformation, occupational specialization, and technology adoption in agriculture.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":13.7,"publicationDate":"2017-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/QJE/QJY024","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43072195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 169
THE SHORT-TERM IMPACT OF UNCONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFERS TO THE POOR: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM KENYA. 无条件现金转移给穷人的短期影响:来自肯尼亚的实验证据。
IF 13.7 1区 经济学
Quarterly Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2016-11-01 Epub Date: 2016-07-19 DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjw025
Johannes Haushofer, Jeremy Shapiro
{"title":"THE SHORT-TERM IMPACT OF UNCONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFERS TO THE POOR: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM KENYA.","authors":"Johannes Haushofer,&nbsp;Jeremy Shapiro","doi":"10.1093/qje/qjw025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw025","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We use a randomized controlled trial to study the response of poor households in rural Kenya to unconditional cash transfers from the NGO GiveDirectly. The transfers differ from other programs in that they are explicitly unconditional, large, and concentrated in time. We randomized at both the village and household levels; furthermore, within the treatment group, we randomized recipient gender (wife versus husband), transfer timing (lump-sum transfer versus monthly installments), and transfer magnitude (US$404 PPP versus US$1,525 PPP). We find a strong consumption response to transfers, with an increase in household monthly consumption from $158 PPP to $193 PPP nine months after the transfer began. Transfer recipients experience large increases in psychological well-being. We find no overall effect on levels of the stress hormone cortisol, although there are differences across some subgroups. Monthly transfers are more likely than lump-sum transfers to improve food security, whereas lump-sum transfers are more likely to be spent on durables, suggesting that households face savings and credit constraints. Together, these results suggest that unconditional cash transfers have significant impacts on economic outcomes and psychological well-being.</p>","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"131 4","pages":"1973-2042"},"PeriodicalIF":13.7,"publicationDate":"2016-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/qje/qjw025","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38618436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 699
Lights, Camera … Income! Illuminating the National Accounts-Household Surveys Debate 灯光、相机……收入!照亮国民账户与家庭调查之争
IF 13.7 1区 经济学
Quarterly Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2016-05-01 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJW003
M. Pinkovskiy, Xavier Sala-i-Martin
{"title":"Lights, Camera … Income! Illuminating the National Accounts-Household Surveys Debate","authors":"M. Pinkovskiy, Xavier Sala-i-Martin","doi":"10.1093/QJE/QJW003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/QJE/QJW003","url":null,"abstract":"GDP per capita and household survey means present conflicting pictures of the rate of economic development in emerging countries. One of the areas in which the national accounts–household surveys debate is key is the measurement of developing world poverty. We propose a data-driven method to assess the relative quality of GDP per capita and survey means by comparing them to the evolution of satellite-recorded nighttime lights. Our main assumption, which is robust to a variety of specification checks, is that the measurement error in nighttime lights is unrelated to the measurement errors in either national accounts or survey means. We obtain estimates of weights on national accounts and survey means in an optimal proxy for true income; these weights are very large for national accounts and very modest for survey means. We conclusively reject the null hypothesis that the optimal weight on surveys is greater than the optimal weight on national accounts, and we generally fail to reject the null hypothesis that the optimal weight on surveys is zero. Additionally, we provide evidence that national accounts are good indicators of desirable outcomes for the poor (such as longer life expectancy, better education and access to safe water), and we show that surveys appear to perform worse in developing countries that are richer and that are growing faster. Therefore, we interpret our results as providing support for estimates of world poverty that are based on national accounts. JEL Code: I32.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"131 1","pages":"579-631"},"PeriodicalIF":13.7,"publicationDate":"2016-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/QJE/QJW003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"61199730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 196
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