{"title":"Distributional,National,Accounts: Methods,and,Estimates,for,the,United,States","authors":"T. Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, G. Zucman","doi":"10.1093/QJE/QJX043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/QJE/QJX043","url":null,"abstract":"This paper combines tax, survey, and national accounts data to estimate the distribution of national income in the United States since 1913. Our distributional national accounts capture 100% of national income, allowing us to compute growth rates for each quantile of the income distribution consistent with macroeconomic growth. We estimate the distribution of both pre-tax and post-tax income, making it possible to provide a comprehensive view of how government redistribution affects inequality. Average pre-tax national income per adult has increased 60% since 1980, but we find that it has stagnated for the bottom 50% of the distribution at about $16,000 a year. The pre-tax income of the middle class—adults between the median and the 90th percentile—has grown 40% since 1980, faster than what tax and survey data suggest, due in particular to the rise of tax-exempt fringe benefits. Income has boomed at the top: in 1980, top 1% adults earned on average 27 times more than bottom 50% adults, while they earn 81 times more today. The upsurge of top incomes was first a labor income phenomenon but has mostly been a capital income phenomenon since 2000. The government has offset only a small fraction of the increase in inequality. The reduction of the gender gap in earnings has mitigated the increase in inequality among adults. The share of women, however, falls steeply as one moves up the labor income distribution, and is only 11% in the top 0.1% today.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"133 1","pages":"553-609"},"PeriodicalIF":13.7,"publicationDate":"2018-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/QJE/QJX043","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47820339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
J. Angrist, Peter Hull, Parag A. Pathak, Christopher R. Walters
{"title":"Erratum to “Leveraging Lotteries for School Value-Added: Testing and Estimation”","authors":"J. Angrist, Peter Hull, Parag A. Pathak, Christopher R. Walters","doi":"10.1093/qje/qjx036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx036","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"132 1","pages":"2061-2062"},"PeriodicalIF":13.7,"publicationDate":"2017-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/qje/qjx036","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46437361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Erratum to “Field of Study, Earnings, and Self-Selection”","authors":"L. Kirkebøen, E. Leuven, M. Mogstad","doi":"10.1093/QJE/QJX025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/QJE/QJX025","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"132 1","pages":"1551-1552"},"PeriodicalIF":13.7,"publicationDate":"2017-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/QJE/QJX025","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46876122","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Party Polarization in Legislatures with Office-Motivated Candidates","authors":"Mattias Polborn, J. Snyder","doi":"10.1093/QJE/QJX012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/QJE/QJX012","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a theory of legislative competition in which voters care about local candidate valence and national party positions that are determined by the parties’ median legislators. As long as election outcomes are sufficiently predictable, the only stable equilibria exhibit policy divergence between the parties. If the degree of uncertainty about election outcomes decreases, and if voters place less weight on local candidates’ valence, polarization between the parties increases. Furthermore, a systematic electoral shock makes the party favored by the shock more moderate, while the disadvantaged party becomes more extreme. Finally, we examine data on state elections and the ideological positions of state legislatures and find patterns that are consistent with key predictions of our model.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"132 1","pages":"1509-1550"},"PeriodicalIF":13.7,"publicationDate":"2017-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/QJE/QJX012","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47520444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Saurabh Bhargava, G. Loewenstein, Justin R. Sydnor
{"title":"Choose to Lose: Health Plan Choices from a Menu with Dominated Option","authors":"Saurabh Bhargava, G. Loewenstein, Justin R. Sydnor","doi":"10.1093/QJE/QJX011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/QJE/QJX011","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the health plan choices that 23,894 employees at a U.S. firm made from a large menu of options that differed only in financial cost-sharing and premium. These decisions provide a clear test of the predictions of the standard economic model of insurance choice in the absence of choice frictions because plans were priced so that nearly every plan with a lower deductible was financially dominated by an otherwise identical plan with a high deductible. We document that the majority of employees chose dominated plans, which resulted in excess spending equivalent to 24% of chosen plan premiums. Low-income employees were significantly more likely to choose dominated plans, and most employees did not switch into more financially efficient plans in the subsequent year. We show that the choice of dominated plans cannot be rationalized by standard risk preference or any expectations about health risk. Testing alternative explanations with a series of hypothetical-choice experiments, we find that the popularity of dominated plans was not primarily driven by the size and complexity of the plan menu, nor informed preferences for avoiding high deductibles, but by employees’ lack of understanding of health insurance. Our findings challenge the standard practice of inferring risk preferences from insurance choices and raise doubts about the welfare benefits of health reforms that expand consumer choice.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"132 1","pages":"1319-1372"},"PeriodicalIF":13.7,"publicationDate":"2017-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/QJE/QJX011","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45018713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tessa Bold, K. Kaizzi, J. Svensson, David Yanagizawa-Drott
{"title":"Lemon technologies and adoption: measurement, theory and evidence from agricultural markets in Uganda","authors":"Tessa Bold, K. Kaizzi, J. Svensson, David Yanagizawa-Drott","doi":"10.1093/QJE/QJX009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/QJE/QJX009","url":null,"abstract":"To reduce poverty and food insecurity in Africa requires raising productivity in agriculture. Systematic use of fertilizer and hybrid seed is a pathway to increased productivity, but adoption of these technologies remains low. We investigate whether the quality of agricultural inputs can help explain low take-up. Testing modern products purchased in local markets, we find that 30% of nutrient is missing in fertilizer, and hybrid maize seed is estimated to contain less than 50% authentic seeds. We document that such low quality results in low average returns. If authentic technologies replaced these low-quality products, however, average returns are high. To rationalize the findings, we calibrate a learning model using data from our agricultural trials. Because agricultural yields are noisy, farmers’ ability to learn about quality is limited and this can help explain the low quality equilibrium we observe, but also why the market has not fully collapsed.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"132 1","pages":"1055-1100"},"PeriodicalIF":13.7,"publicationDate":"2017-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/QJE/QJX009","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43813619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fiscal Policy and Debt Management with Incomplete Markets","authors":"A. Bhandari, David Evans, M. Golosov, T. Sargent","doi":"10.1093/QJE/QJW041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/QJE/QJW041","url":null,"abstract":"A Ramsey planner chooses a distorting tax on labor and manages a portfolio of securities in an economy with incomplete markets. We develop a method that uses second order approximations of Ramsey policies to obtain formulas for conditional and unconditional moments of government debt and taxes that include means and variances of the invariant distribution as well as speeds of mean reversion. The asymptotic mean of the planner's portfolio minimizes a measure of fiscal risk. We obtain analytic expressions that approximate moments of the invariant distribution and apply them to data on a primary government deficit, aggregate consumption, and returns on traded securities. For U.S. data, we find that the optimal target debt level is negative but close to zero, the invariant distribution of debt is very dispersed, and mean reversion is slow.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"132 1","pages":"617-663"},"PeriodicalIF":13.7,"publicationDate":"2017-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/QJE/QJW041","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45098956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Naivete-Based Discrimination","authors":"Paul Heidhues, B. Kőszegi","doi":"10.1093/QJE/QJW042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/QJE/QJW042","url":null,"abstract":"We initiate the study of naivete-based discrimination, the practice of conditioning offers on external information about consumers’ naivete. Knowing that a consumer is naive increases a monopolistic or competitive firm's willingness to generate inefficiency to exploit the consumer's mistakes, so naivete-based discrimination is not Pareto-improving, can be Pareto-damaging, and often lowers total welfare when classical preference-based discrimination does not. Moreover, the effect on total welfare depends on a hitherto unemphasized market feature: the extent to which the exploitation of naive consumers distorts trade with different types of consumers. If the distortion is homogeneous across naive and sophisticated consumers, then under an arguably weak and empirically testable condition, naivete-based discrimination lowers total welfare. In contrast, if the distortion arises only for trades with sophisticated consumers, then perfect naivete-based discrimination maximizes social welfare, although imperfect discrimination often lowers welfare. If the distortion arises only for trades with naive consumers, then naivete-based discrimination has no effect on welfare. We identify applications for each of these cases. In our primary example, a credit market with present-biased borrowers, firms lend more than is socially optimal to increase the amount of interest naive borrowers unexpectedly pay, creating a homogeneous distortion. The condition for naivete-based discrimination to lower welfare is then weaker than prudence.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"132 1","pages":"1019-1054"},"PeriodicalIF":13.7,"publicationDate":"2017-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/QJE/QJW042","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41973766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
L. Kogan, L. Kogan, D. Papanikolaou, D. Papanikolaou, Amit Seru, Noah Stoffman
{"title":"Technological Innovation, Resource Allocation and Growth","authors":"L. Kogan, L. Kogan, D. Papanikolaou, D. Papanikolaou, Amit Seru, Noah Stoffman","doi":"10.1093/QJE/QJW040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/QJE/QJW040","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a new measure of the economic importance of each innovation. Our measure uses newly collected data on patents issued to US firms in the 1926 to 2010 period, combined with the stock market response to news about patents. Our patent- level estimates of private economic value are positively related to the scientific value of these patents, as measured by the number of citations that the patent receives in the future. Our new measure is associated with substantial growth, reallocation and creative destruction, consistent with the predictions of Schumpeterian growth models. Aggregating our measure suggests that technological innovation accounts for significant medium-run fluctuations in aggregate economic growth and TFP. Our measure contains additional information relative to citation-weighted patent counts; the relation between our measure and firm growth is considerably stronger. Importantly, the degree of creative destruction that is associated with our measure is higher than previous estimates, confirming that it is a useful proxy for the private valuation of patents.","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"132 1","pages":"665-712"},"PeriodicalIF":13.7,"publicationDate":"2017-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/QJE/QJW040","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49277056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Irena Roci, Hector Gallart-Ayala, Jeramie Watrous, Mohit Jain, Craig E Wheelock, Roland Nilsson
{"title":"A Method for Measuring Metabolism in Sorted Subpopulations of Complex Cell Communities Using Stable Isotope Tracing.","authors":"Irena Roci, Hector Gallart-Ayala, Jeramie Watrous, Mohit Jain, Craig E Wheelock, Roland Nilsson","doi":"10.3791/55011","DOIUrl":"10.3791/55011","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Mammalian cell types exhibit specialized metabolism, and there is ample evidence that various co-existing cell types engage in metabolic cooperation. Moreover, even cultures of a single cell type may contain cells in distinct metabolic states, such as resting or cycling cells. Methods for measuring metabolic activities of such subpopulations are valuable tools for understanding cellular metabolism. Complex cell populations are most commonly separated using a cell sorter, and subpopulations isolated by this method can be analyzed by metabolomics methods. However, a problem with this approach is that the cell sorting procedure subjects cells to stresses that may distort their metabolism. To overcome these issues, we reasoned that the mass isotopomer distributions (MIDs) of metabolites from cells cultured with stable isotope-labeled nutrients are likely to be more stable than absolute metabolite concentrations, because MIDs are formed over longer time scales and should be less affected by short-term exposure to cell sorting conditions. Here, we describe a method based on this principle, combining cell sorting with liquid chromatography-high resolution mass spectrometry (LC-HRMS). The procedure involves analyzing three types of samples: (1) metabolite extracts obtained directly from the complex population; (2) extracts of \"mock sorted\" cells passed through the cell sorter instrument without gating any specific population; and (3) extracts of the actual sorted populations. The mock sorted cells are compared against direct extraction to verify that MIDs are indeed not altered by the cell sorting procedure itself, prior to analyzing the actual sorted populations. We show example results from HeLa cells sorted according to cell cycle phase, revealing changes in nucleotide metabolism.</p>","PeriodicalId":48470,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of Economics","volume":"100 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2017-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5408592/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90621033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}