World Development最新文献

{"title":"Urbanisation and the political demography of African cities","authors":"Nick Dorward ,&nbsp;Kristian Hoelscher","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107344","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107344","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Africa is undergoing a rapid process of urban demographic change. Increasingly youthful population structures are defining the continent’s towns and cities. Scholarship suggests this will be associated with greater protest incidence and lower levels of voting and electoral participation. However, these findings often rely on national-level data, despite there being considerable subnational variation in population structures between African cities. Building on existing theory, we argue that local demographic contexts matter for political behaviour. Specifically, we hypothesise that youthful urban demographic structures will be associated with lower levels of formal political participation (voting) and greater levels of informal contentious mobilisation (protest) for all individuals, and that the magnitude of this effect will be greater for younger people. We test these expectations using novel geospatial data on the spatial extent of unique urban settlements, urban-level age and sex structures, and geolocated individual-level survey data from 399 cities in 36 countries across Africa. Using multilevel regression, we find that individuals are more likely to vote in more youthful urban contexts, with young people no more or less likely to vote than their older counterparts. Conversely, we find no significant relationship between individual protest participation and city youth shares overall. However, young people in more youthful cities are significantly more likely to protest than older people. In light of these findings, we discuss how the demographic composition of individual cities in Africa nuances our understanding of political behaviour and contentious mobilisation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"202 ","pages":"Article 107344"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146193122","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Chinese vs. World Bank development projects: Insights from earth observation and computer vision on wealth gains in Africa, 2002–2013","authors":"Adel Daoud ,&nbsp;Cindy Conlin ,&nbsp;Connor T. Jerzak","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107328","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107328","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Debates about whether development projects improve living conditions persist, partly because observational estimates can be biased by incomplete adjustment and because reliable outcome data are scarce at the neighborhood level. We address both issues in a continent-scale, sector-specific evaluation of Chinese and World Bank projects across 9899 neighborhoods in 36 African countries (2002-2013), representative of <span><math><mo>∼</mo></math></span>88% of the population. First, we use a recent dataset that measures living conditions with a machine-learned wealth index derived from contemporaneous satellite imagery, yielding a consistent panel of 6.7 km square mosaics. Second, to strengthen identification, we proxy officials’ map-based placement criteria using pre-treatment daytime satellite images and fuse these with tabular covariates to estimate funder- and sector-specific ATEs via inverse-probability weighting. Incorporating imagery often shrinks effects relative to tabular-only models. On average, both donors raise wealth, with larger and more consistent gains for China; sector extremes in our sample include <em>Trade and Tourism (330)</em> for the World Bank (+12.29 IWI points), and <em>Emergency Response (700)</em> for China (+15.15). Assignment-mechanism analyses also show World Bank placement is often more predictable from imagery alone (as well as from tabular covariates). This suggests that Chinese project placements are more driven by non-visible, political, or event-driven factors than World Bank placements. To probe residual concerns about selection on observables, we also estimate within-neighborhood (unit) fixed-effects models at a spatial resolution about 67 times finer than prior fixed-effects analyses, leveraging the computer-vision-imputed IWI panels; these deliver smaller but, for Chinese projects, directionally consistent effects. Methodologically, we extend recent EO–ML causal inference frameworks by fusing pre-treatment satellite imagery with tabular covariates to estimate treatment propensities, and by systematically benchmarking image-augmented estimators against tabular-only and unit fixed-effects designs using new assignment-mechanism diagnostics. Empirically, we provide a continent-wide, sector-specific comparison of the neighborhood-level wealth effects of Chinese and World Bank projects across 9899 African neighborhoods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"202 ","pages":"Article 107328"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146147672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Beyond overall income inequality: Racial income gaps and health disparities","authors":"Gedeão Locks ,&nbsp;Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107340","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107340","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we combine Census data with death records to examine the relationship between income inequality and race-specific mortality across 5,565 municipalities in Brazil. We find that overall income inequality is strongly associated with Non-White mortality but not with White mortality. To understand this disparity, we decompose the Gini coefficient and find that the racial income gap accounts for 14% of overall income inequality. Using an Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition, we show that 79% of the racial income gap is explained by differences in education between Whites and Non-Whites. Finally, we document that the residual (structural) component of the racial income gap is strongly associated with Non-White male mortality, particularly homicides at young ages. Our results imply that closing schooling gaps alone will not eliminate racial health disparities in Brazil.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"202 ","pages":"Article 107340"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146192980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Developing a multidimensional resilience index for farm households: A food system approach","authors":"Margherita Squarcina,&nbsp;Juliane Hänsch,&nbsp;Florena M. Montoya Cepeda,&nbsp;Magdalena Pallauf,&nbsp;Bruno Paz,&nbsp;Jonas Stehl,&nbsp;Jasmin Wehner,&nbsp;Meike Wollni","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107342","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107342","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Existing measures of resilience focus on specific food system components, neglecting the complexity of the whole system. We propose a measure of farm-level resilience that encompasses three dimensions of a food system: economic profitability, environmental sustainability, and adequate nutrition. To empirically estimate the proposed model, we combine longitudinal household-level data from Malawi, Tanzania, and Nigeria with GIS data and macro-level indicators. We define resilience as a normative condition using a probabilistic moment-based approach following <span><span>Cissé &amp; Barrett (2018)</span></span>. To aggregate the probabilities across different dimensions into a single index of resilience, we employ and compare two different methods: Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model. Our findings indicate an overall increase in the resilience of farm households over time, with improvements in Nigeria and Tanzania. Clear trade-offs are evident across the various domains of the food system. Both proposed resilience indexes perform well when analyzed across different shocks and alternative specifications. Resilience tends to support improvements in certain dimensions without undermining others. The comparison between the two methods indicates a preference for the simpler PCA-based approach to measuring farm households’ resilience using a food system approach. Our findings underline the need to broaden our focus beyond individual aspects of resilience to achieve sustainable food systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"202 ","pages":"Article 107342"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146193124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Conflict and democratic preferences","authors":"Nicole Stoelinga ,&nbsp;Tuuli Tähtinen","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107341","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107341","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate how exposure to conflict events shapes individuals’ democratic preferences, focusing on support for democracy in general and perceptions of governance within one’s own country. We examine how ethnic affiliation—whether an individual belongs to an ethnic group with access to state power—influences democratic attitudes, reflecting differences in social standing and expectations about democratization. Using a rich data set covering more than 30 African countries over two decades, we exploit variation in the timing of conflict events relative to survey interviews to identify causal effects. Our findings show that conflict exposure, on average, increases support for democracy, but the effects vary by ethnicity and regime type. In autocracies, conflict triggers rally-around-the-flag effects: support for democracy rises, but so do perceptions of the state. Violence also increases trust in ruling institutions in autocratic regimes, an effect that is absent in more democratic settings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"202 ","pages":"Article 107341"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146193125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Agri-labour mobility in a changing climate: A systems approach to vulnerability and precarity among migrant farmworkers","authors":"Sinem Kavak ,&nbsp;Mine Işlar ,&nbsp;Lennart Olsson","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107329","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107329","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research explores the climate vulnerability of migrant farmworkers within the climate-sensitive commercial agriculture of the Mediterranean Basin, through a case study of Turkey. In Turkey a vast majority of the farmworkers belong to Kurdish and Arab ethnic groups, including internally displaced people (IDPs) and Syrians. Utilising a critical political economy approach to vulnerability and synthesising a decade of qualitative data, we examine farmworkers’ experience of climate change. The findings demonstrate that climate vulnerability operates across three interconnected levels: (1) direct exposure to climate extremes, (2) indirect socio-economic impacts on livelihoods, social and political vulnerabilities, and (3) systemic effects arising from the interaction of multiple climate events across multiple locations of labour. To this end, we introduce the concept of agri-labour mobility systems. These operate through an ad hoc system of routes shaped by labour demands at specific points in production cycles and the minimum income thresholds required to offset the costs of migration. This framework allows us to analyse vulnerability beyond hazard-based frameworks by incorporating the political economy of farm labour and emphasising intersecting social, economic, political, and climate-related vulnerabilities. Finally, we assert that experiences with climate change for mobile livelihoods can only be understood by looking at the migration routes, multiple commodities and locations and the continuity of the experiences with the climate irregularities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"202 ","pages":"Article 107329"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146193127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Introduction to special issue: The policy consequences of social movements","authors":"Santiago Anria ,&nbsp;Candelaria Garay ,&nbsp;Jessica A.J. Rich","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107312","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107312","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Over the past decade, social movements have driven transformative political and social change across the globe—from the Arab Spring to feminist victories in Latin America and diversity and inclusion efforts in the United States. Yet many of these gains have been swiftly reversed, underscoring a critical challenge: ensuring not just the adoption of new policies but their long-term survival. This special issue explores how social movements work to entrench the very policies they help bring about, ensuring these policies take root. Social movements often pursue entrenchment by occupying key bureaucratic positions, applying pressure and persuasion, and building alliances with political parties. The five articles in this issue examine these strategies across diverse cases in the Global South, offering broader insights into how movements sustain change over time. Together, they provide a framework for understanding the enduring role of activism in shaping, defending, and entrenching progressive policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107312"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146080029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Digging deep: Resource exploitation and higher education","authors":"Lenin H. Balza ,&nbsp;Camilo De Los Rios ,&nbsp;Nathaly M. Rivera","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107311","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107311","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Do resource-extraction booms deter postsecondary education? We explore this question by examining the higher education-related decisions of Chilean high school graduates during the 2000s commodities boom. Mineral extraction boosts enrollment in technical education but lowers completion rates for four-year professional degrees. Effects vary by economic background, with dropout rates higher among public high school graduates, who typically serve low-income groups. Our study highlights the unequal impact of natural resources on human capital accumulation across income groups within resource-rich developing economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107311"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On risk-based poverty traps","authors":"Christopher B. Barrett,&nbsp;Heather Schofield","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107317","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107317","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Much development policy has followed from the idea of poverty traps, the belief that the poor (and poor countries) lack capital and the ability to borrow, thus cannot invest sufficiently to build a better future for themselves. Poverty is thus self-reinforcing. This essay explores a complementary, alternate hypothesis, that poverty traps may be driven not only by lack of access to capital, but also (or instead) by differential exposure to uninsured risk and ability to cope with that risk. We explain the hypothesis and its historical roots, discuss empirical evidence, and tease out prospective solutions to the possibility of risk-based poverty traps.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107317"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145982068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Community norms, peer influence, and women’s digital financial inclusion: evidence from India","authors":"Rashmi Arora ,&nbsp;Supriya Garikipati ,&nbsp;Sukhpreet Kaur","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107314","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107314","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite rapid advances in digital finance, significant gender gaps persist, especially in South Asia. Using nationally representative data from India’s NFHS-5 survey (n = 84,213), this study explores how community norms and peer behavior shape women’s adoption of digital financial services. Employing a 2–2–1 multilevel moderated mediation model, we find that women are significantly more likely to engage in digital finance when embedded in communities with high peer usage, aligning with behavioral diffusion theory. However, this peer influence is curtailed in communities with restrictive gendered mobility norms. Our findings underscore the layered interaction between individual agency and community-level social structures. The study reveals that women’s employment and relative income foster digital adoption both directly and via increased peer exposure. Yet, this pathway weakens in socially restrictive environments. These insights highlight the necessity of norm-sensitive, community-level interventions to promote inclusive digital finance for women in low- and middle-income countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107314"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}