World Development最新文献

{"title":"Should the market decide where the waste goes? Municipal bidding war between private landfills in Santiago de Chile","authors":"N. Valenzuela-Levi,&nbsp;N. Gálvez Ramírez,&nbsp;J. Ponce-Méndez","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106949","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106949","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Decentralisation and privatisation shaped infrastructure allocation in many developing countries that underwent structural readjustment policies. Chilean municipalities exemplify these trends: they were shaped under neoliberal policies imposed during the dictatorship led by Augusto Pinochet (1973-1990). The case of landfill siting and waste disposal contract allocation in the Santiago Metropolitan Area (SMA) illustrates this regime inspired by local government competition and privatisation. This research dives deep into the origins and dynamics of ‘competition in the market’ among three private landfills. It then proposes a transshipment optimisation model to assess monetary costs and greenhouse gass emissions from waste transfer to landfills in 42 municipalities. This methodology allows evaluating decentralisation and privatisation of landfill siting and disposal contract distribution in the SMA. Our model shows a potential reduction of 18.31 percent of the total monetary cost of transfer, disposal and treatment, 32 percent of monetary waste transfer costs, and 1.72 percent of green house gas generated by transfer, disposal and treatment. In conclusion, the existent market structure has not fully optimised origin–destination monetary and environmental costs, leaving significant room for improvement through coordination and development of more targeted forms of public–private partnerships.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"191 ","pages":"Article 106949"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143643687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"India’s premature deindustrialization and Falling investment rate in the 2010s","authors":"R Nagaraj","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106954","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106954","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>India’s GDP growth rate faltered in the 2010s after steadily accelerating for decades since the early 1980s. The slowdown adversely affected employment growth, poverty reduction, and nutritional status. Why did it happen? As the study demonstrates, the answer is India’s premature deindustrialization and rising import dependence on China. Capital and intermediate goods industries got hollowed out, with the manufacturing GDP share stagnating at around 15-17 percent since 1991; annual industrial growth rates have declined steeply since 2015-16, even ignoring the Pandemic years. Manufacturing employment share has declined; agriculture’s share rose in the 2010s—an unmistakable sign of premature deindustrialization.</div><div>Why did industrial capacity get depleted relative to increasing consumption? The answer is an unprecedented decline in fixed investment and savings as shares of GDP. The share of fixed investment in industry and manufacturing declined significantly. The rising fixed investment share of services is driven by telecom, Government, and other services. Relatedly, net FDI inflow and domestic capital market mobilization, as proportions of GDP, have declined in the 2010s. Up to 70 percent of FDI went into brownfield investment, not greenfield investment. Policy efforts, namely, the <em>Make in India</em> and <em>Atmanirbhar</em> (self-reliant) <em>Bharat</em> initiative and production-linked incentives (PLI), have yet to yield measurable results.</div><div>India now needs an industrial policy to overcome premature deindustrialization, in the changed geopolitical context. It would help reverse the decline in industrial investments and target greenfield FDI and technology acquisition. The public sector must reimagine its entrepreneurial role in long-term strategic interests, as the private corporate investment rate is yet to pick up. Raising public investment while maintaining fiscal and external balances will require raising domestic saving rates. Term-lending institutions must boost the supply of long-term credit at low and stable interest rates. The stagnant domestic R&amp;D investment rate must rise quickly to catch up with China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"191 ","pages":"Article 106954"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143636430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Crimes of the current: Natural disasters and crime in Kenya","authors":"Jaslin Kalsi ,&nbsp;Robert Mackay ,&nbsp;Astghik Mavisakalyan ,&nbsp;Yashar Tarverdi","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106982","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106982","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the link between natural disasters and crime, drawing on a case study of Kenya and employing a mixed method approach. Matching data on 412 disaster locations from the <em>Geocoded Disasters Dataset</em> with data on over 9,500 individuals from the Kenyan <em>Afrobarometer</em> survey over the period from 2003 to 2014, we conduct a difference-in-differences analysis of the link between disaster exposure and experiences of crime, documenting a strong positive relationship. These findings are complemented by an analysis of primary data collected through 75 semi-structured interviews in Baringo region of Kenya which was severely impacted by the 2020 East Valley Rift flooding. The analysis of primary data confirms the positive relationship between disaster exposure and crime. To understand the possible mechanisms, we combine a descriptive quantitative analysis with qualitative content analysis. Both approaches suggest that cost-benefit considerations as well as stress induced by a disaster are likely at play in the observed patterns of increased crime in a post-disaster setting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"191 ","pages":"Article 106982"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143591838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Who’s governing the market? bringing the individual back into the study of the developmental state","authors":"Robyn Klingler-Vidra ,&nbsp;Adam William Chalmers ,&nbsp;Robert H. Wade","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106979","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106979","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Research on the Northeast Asian economic miracle has focused on structural explanations, using institutional, geopolitical, and cultural variables. Much less focus has been on the role of the individuals (or “actors” or “agents”) responsible for leading the developmental states. This article contributes by using homophily theory to add a novel explanation for the origins of the success of the East Asian developmental states. Homophily refers to the tendency for people who recognize distinct common attributes to bond, to “stick together”. To study homophily, the article analyzes a dataset consisting of the 1,110 individuals who held one of the two most senior positions in the innovation policymaking organizations of the archetypal developmental states (Japan, Korea, and Taiwan) and the region’s large, late developer (China), from 1945 to 2021. The article reveals national homophily around educational and occupational dimensions, especially the location of education and professional trajectories. Japan emerges as an outlier with the<!--> <!-->strongest homophily pattern; with its policy leaders being 6 times more likely than in the other cases to have the same educational and professional background, in terms of degree subject and university, and organizational path. This is surprising given that Japan is the quintessential developmental state; and raises questions about why the other developmental states, which in many respects emulated the Japanese model, did not replicate this aspect. Overall, the evidence suggests nationally distinct patterns of similar elite recruitment to the top of the developmental state resulted in positive developmental outcomes. These patterns were aligned with structural factors in a way that allowed these individuals to formulate and carry through successful policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"191 ","pages":"Article 106979"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143562849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trading off inclusion, value, and scale within smallholder targeted value chains","authors":"Daniel Hill ,&nbsp;Daniel Gregg ,&nbsp;Derek Baker","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106973","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106973","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Smallholder-targeted value chain development is one of the most important market-based strategies for rural development. A wealth of research shows smallholder-targeted value chains can potentially deliver considerable benefits for participating smallholders. However, a divergence in experiences suggests trade-offs: between value outcomes delivered for rural communities; between delivering value and engaging with target populations; and between target development outcomes and the incentives of commercial agribusiness. In this paper we seek to describe how the domains of inclusion, value, and scaling-out should be considered for smallholder-targeted value chains development, and to what extent trade-offs between these domains emerge for smallholder-targeted value chains. To answer these questions, we present a scoping literature review of outcome identification and measurement in smallholder-targeted value chains case studies. From a sample of 344 case studies we show strong evidence for trade-offs. Specifically, smallholder-targeted value chains delivering high-value farm performance outcomes are 87% less likely to be inclusive, relative to value chains with low farm performance outcomes. From the findings of the scoping review, we map the pathways and drivers for the mutual achievement of value, inclusivity, and scalability outcomes for smallholder-targeted value chains. Our review is critical but positive – it presents a critical need for updates to value chain design, but provides the starting point for this design work to be nested within clear conceptual foundations and standardised measures of value chain ‘success’ for rural development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"191 ","pages":"Article 106973"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143562850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Greening agriculture for rural development","authors":"Edward B. Barbier","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106974","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106974","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This review examines the importance of agriculture in emerging market and developing economies for employment, livelihoods, and food security, while also addressing the need for more sustainable and equitable practices in the sector. It surveys available evidence to explore how agriculture in these economies might meet these various challenges. The review first examines the key structural characteristics of agriculture in these economies, including its impacts on the environment. It then highlights how agricultural and other complementary sectoral policies could support more sustainable rural development that also allow low-income households to benefit from more environmentally friendly agricultural practices. The emphasis is on cost-effective and innovative policy mechanisms to green agriculture. Reduce rural poverty and support livelihoods and job opportunities. Several policies meet these criteria, including a fossil fuel subsidy swap to fund clean energy investments and dissemination in rural areas; repurposing water subsidies to expand water supply and sanitation services for the rural poor; using proceeds from a carbon tax to fund nature-based solutions; and recycling environmentally harmful subsidies to critical rural investments. The review also discusses the major obstacles to implementing such policies and how they may be overcome through greater transparency, accountability, improved design and complementary policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"191 ","pages":"Article 106974"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143552885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Place-based policies, pro-competitive effects, and allocative efficiency: Evidence from China’s economic zones","authors":"Wenyi Lyu,&nbsp;Jian Yang,&nbsp;Leng Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106971","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106971","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using geo-coded firm and administrative data, we examine how China’s economic zones (EZs) impact allocative efficiency by identifying the reduced markups and negative spillover effects that occur after the establishment of EZs. Both incumbents and new entrants contribute to the markup changes. Additional analysis examines the significant role of new firm entry in improving allocative efficiency in EZs. First, the pro-competitive effects in the output market rather than cost savings in the input market primarily account for the reduction in markups of manufacturing firms. Second, the productivity advantages obtained from agglomeration effects may potentially enable firms to decrease their markups by passing the efficiency gains on to customers under competitive pressure. Heterogeneous analysis further indicates that the majority of the reduction in markups is driven by firms with greater market power. Moreover, the degree of pro-competitive effects relies crucially on firm characteristics and market conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"191 ","pages":"Article 106971"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143552884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Avocados: Mexico’s green gold, drug cartel violence and the U.S. opioid crisis","authors":"Itzel De Haro","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106942","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106942","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The growing global demand for avocados has drawn the attention of rent-seeking drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) in Mexico. As a result, farmers and packing houses have become targets of extortion by these organizations. This paper aims to answer whether declining drug revenues have incentivized cartels to target the avocado sector. By leveraging exogenous variation from the introduction of Fentanyl in the U.S., I analyze the impact of reduced heroin demand on homicides and cartel presence in avocado and poppy-growing municipalities between 2011 and 2019. Using municipal-level data, I show that the decline in the demand for heroin increased homicide rates, including those of agricultural workers, as well as truckload thefts in avocado-growing municipalities. Conversely, decreased heroin demand resulted in a reduction in homicides and violent thefts in poppy-growing municipalities. Furthermore, I find no evidence of changes in cartel presence in avocado and poppy municipalities. Consequently, the rise in homicides in avocado municipalities can be attributed to DTOs’ increased use of violence against civilians rather than territorial expansion. Overall, this paper provides evidence of inter-sector spillovers resulting from drug demand changes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"191 ","pages":"Article 106942"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143552880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Non-state armed actors, war economies and postwar violence – Examining the connections","authors":"Sabine Kurtenbach ,&nbsp;Angelika Rettberg ,&nbsp;Gabriel Rosero ,&nbsp;José Salguero","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106918","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106918","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of war, states and non-state actors alike need resources to fund their armed activities. While states can use taxes to this end, non-state actors often need either territorial control to mimic the taxing abilities of a state or to participate in the trade of legal and illegal resources. After a war ends, these activities have no clear-cut end, but they may continue to fund other manifestations of postwar violence. We therefore ask: How do non-state war economies or rebels’ access to economic resources matter for understanding postwar violence? More specifically, what conditions might reinforce or mitigate these legacies after the termination of hostilities? In this paper, we challenge the general assumption that war economies thwart postwar transformations and peacebuilding. Motivated by scattered empirical evidence suggesting significant variation on the ground, we apply a Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) research design to examine a sample of 42 postwar episodes. We focus on how the access of rebels and non-state groups to economic resources shape postwar violence. Due to the poor quality of comparable quantitative data across countries, we use a two-step approach. We first identify clusters of postwar societies based on the existence or absence of non-state armed actors’ access to resources and the level of postwar violence. Drawing from these findings, we validate the clusters with illustrative case studies in a second step. Our results show no linear pathway from the actors’ access to resources to postwar crime and violence. In fact, our findings suggest that the characteristics and depth of postwar crime and violence depend on specific and dynamic combinations of political regime and economic state capacities, which operate as intermediating factors fostering violence when weak or mitigating/counteracting violence when strong. Our findings caution against fatalistic—even deterministic—views of war economies shaping postwar societies. Far from being doomed, countries emerging from war find opportunities to strengthen democratic participation and diversify state presence. This confirms long-held notions that peacebuilding, as well as postwar crime and violence, amount largely to a question of building strong, capable, and inclusive institutions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"191 ","pages":"Article 106918"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143552883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Two decades of tax-benefit reforms in Ecuador: How much have they contributed to poverty and inequality reduction?","authors":"H. Xavier Jara ,&nbsp;Lourdes Montesdeoca ,&nbsp;María Gabriela Colmenarez ,&nbsp;Lorena Moreno","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106976","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106976","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The aim of this paper is to analyze the contribution of tax-benefit reforms to changes in income poverty and inequality in Ecuador from 2003 to 2022. For this, we use decomposition methods based on counterfactual distributions obtained using tax-benefit microsimulations which allow quantifying the relative contribution of policy reforms to changes in income poverty and inequality, compared to other contributors, including demographic characteristics and changes in the market income distribution. The focus is on changes over five subperiods, namely 2003–08, 2008–14, 2014–2019, 2019–20 and 2020–22. Our results show that tax-benefit reforms introduced between 2003 and 2020 contributed to the reduction of poverty and inequality in Ecuador, reinforcing the positive contribution of changes in market income and other population factors in all subperiods between 2003 and 2014, and mitigating the negative contribution of such factors between 2014 and 2020. Over the last period of analysis (2020–22), the post-pandemic economic recovery was broadly due to an improvement of market income with an almost nil contribution of tax-benefit reforms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"190 ","pages":"Article 106976"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143551242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}