Claudia Goldin , Sari Pekkala Kerr , Claudia Olivetti
{"title":"The parental pay gap over the life cycle: Children, jobs, and labor supply","authors":"Claudia Goldin , Sari Pekkala Kerr , Claudia Olivetti","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104963","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104963","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Women earn less than men, and that is especially true of mothers relative to fathers. Much of the widening occurs after family formation when mothers reduce their hours of work. But what happens when the kids grow up? To answer that question, we estimate three earning gaps: the “motherhood penalty,” the “price of being female,” and the “fatherhood premium.” When added together these three produce the “parental gender gap,” defined as the difference in earnings between mothers and fathers. We estimate (log) earnings gaps for college graduates born around 1960 using longitudinal data from the NLSY79 and from the LEHD-Census that track respondents from their twenties to their fifties. As the children grow up and as women work more hours, the motherhood penalty is greatly reduced. But women, especially mothers, seem willing throughout their working lives to trade lower pay for various amenities, such as working in firms with management practices that are less penalizing of career interruptions or of shorter work schedules. Fathers, however, manage to expand their relative earnings gains as their children age, particularly among those working in time-intensive jobs, irrespective of work hours or firm fixed effects. The parental gender gap in earnings remains substantial over the family lifecycle.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"169 ","pages":"Article 104963"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143175435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"What does the beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of soft landings?","authors":"Andrew Figura, Chris Waller","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104957","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104957","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Any assessment of the likelihood and characteristics of a soft landing in the labor market should take into account the current state of the labor market and the likely dynamics in the labor market going forward. Modern labor market models centered around the Beveridge curve are a useful tool in this assessment. We use a simple model of the Beveridge curve to investigate what conditions are necessary for a soft landing in the labor market to occur and what the likelihood of these conditions was during the height of the pandemic-period inflation. We find that a soft landing was a plausible outcome at that time. Since then, the evolution of the labor market has borne out that prediction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"169 ","pages":"Article 104957"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143175438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sebastian Dyrda , Greg Kaplan , José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
{"title":"Living arrangements and labor market volatility of young workers","authors":"Sebastian Dyrda , Greg Kaplan , José-Víctor Ríos-Rull","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104958","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104958","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Household size is countercyclical, mainly because of young people moving into or delaying departure from the parental home. Those living in older households earn less and have more volatile hours than their peers living alone. We pose a theory of household formation and labor choice over the business cycle. Young people decide where to live depending on their wage, taste for living within the old household, and implicit transfers received. Our theory accounts for the bulk of the contribution of the household's size volatility to the volatility of the aggregate hours. Including people with varying living arrangements yields an implied aggregate, or macro, Frisch elasticity around 70 percent larger than the assumed micro elasticity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"169 ","pages":"Article 104958"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142263336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The welfare costs of misinformation","authors":"Neha Bairoliya , Kathleen McKiernan","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104959","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104959","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Social Security (SS) benefits, with an average replacement rate of around 40 percent, serve as an important source of retirement income for older Americans. Yet, the size of lifetime benefits a household receives depends on many factors, including the age of benefit claim and life-cycle labor supply decisions. Given the complexity of the associated rules, many households may lack understanding of one or more aspects of the system. In this work, we use a life-cycle model of consumption, savings, labor supply, and Social Security application decisions to study the welfare impact of such misinformation. Our findings indicate significant welfare losses stemming from misinformation, especially when it causes individuals to strongly over-estimate the value of future entitlements. Additionally, we show that the <em>Social Security Statement</em> program, a large public information campaign, must inform only 20.1 percent of misinformed individuals in order for aggregate benefits of information to outweigh aggregate costs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"169 ","pages":"Article 104959"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142269560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reprint of: How do households respond to income shocks?","authors":"Dirk Krueger , Egor Malkov , Fabrizio Perri","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104973","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104973","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use panel data from the Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth from 1991 to 2016 to document what components of the household budget constraint change in response to shocks to household labor income, both over shorter and over longer horizons. Consumption and wealth responses are informative about the household consumption (or savings) function and thus about what class of consumption-savings model best describes the data. Empirically, we first show that shocks to labor income are associated with negligible changes in transfers and non-labor income components, modest changes in consumption expenditures, and large changes in wealth. To understand the wealth response we then split households into a sample that does not own business or real estate wealth, and a sample that does. For the first group, we find that consumption responses are more substantial (and increasing with the horizon of the income shock) and wealth responses are much smaller (and mildly increasing with the income shock horizon). Turning to theory, we argue that for this group, a simple extension of the standard permanent income hypothesis (PIH) consumption function that allows for partial insurance against even permanent income shocks explains the consumption and wealth responses well, both at short and long horizons. For the second group with business wealth or real estate wealth the standard framework cannot explain the large changes in wealth associated with income shocks. We conclude that models which include shocks to the value of household wealth are necessary to fully evaluate the sources and consequences of household resource risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"169 ","pages":"Article 104973"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143175436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A quantitative theory of the new life cycle of women's employment","authors":"Lidia Cruces","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104960","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104960","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>“A new life cycle of women's labor force participation has emerged” (<span><span>Goldin and Mitchell, 2017</span></span>). Compared to previous cohorts, the employment profile of American college-educated married women born after the mid-1950s is flatter and higher with no hump but with a dip in the middle between ages 30-39. At the same time, these younger cohorts have delayed births, but their completed fertility rate has increased. I develop a quantitative theory to explain the changes in college-educated women's employment and fertility decisions across cohorts. First, I provide reduced-form evidence of a positive correlation between fertility and employment decisions. Second, I build a life-cycle model of labor supply and fertility decisions. My estimates indicate that the marginal returns to experience of college-educated married women increased by 33 percent. Although on-the-job accumulation of experience plays a crucial role in generating employment shifts and birth delays, the model does not generate an increase in the total fertility rate in the absence of infertility treatments. Thus, to understand why college-educated married women's life-cycle employment profiles and fertility decisions are changing, both factors must be considered.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"169 ","pages":"Article 104960"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143175433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Unions: Wage floors, seniority rules, and unemployment duration","authors":"Fernando Alvarez , Robert Shimer , Fabrice Tourre","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104965","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104965","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of unions on unemployment and wages in a dynamic equilibrium search model. We model a union as imposing a minimum wage and rationing jobs to ensure that the union's most senior members are employed. This generates rest unemployment, where following a downturn in their labor market, unionized workers are willing to wait for jobs to reappear rather than search for a new labor market. We characterize the hazard rate of exiting unemployment, and show that it is low at long durations whenever the union-imposed minimum wage is high; we establish that a high union-imposed minimum wage generates a compressed wage distribution and a high turnover rate of jobs — properties consistent with the data. Finally, we show that seniority rules lead to lower unemployment levels, relative to an alternative rule allocating jobs to workers randomly.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"169 ","pages":"Article 104965"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143175437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Do unemployment benefit extensions explain the emergence of jobless recoveries?","authors":"Kurt Mitman , Stanislav Rabinovich","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104964","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104964","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Countercyclical unemployment benefit extensions in the United States act as a propagation mechanism, contributing to the high persistence of unemployment following recent recessions, as well as the weak correlation between unemployment and productivity. We show this by modifying an otherwise standard frictional model of the labor market to incorporate a stochastic and state-dependent process for unemployment insurance estimated on US data. Accounting for movements in both productivity and unemployment insurance, our calibrated model is consistent with post-war labor-market dynamics. It explains the emergence of jobless recoveries in the 1990s, the low correlation between unemployment and productivity, and the apparent shifts in the Beveridge curve following recessions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"169 ","pages":"Article 104964"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142269561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Judgment can spur long memory","authors":"Emilio Zanetti Chini","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.105005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.105005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We arrive at this conclusion by using a new family of models—the Long Memory Dynamic Judgmental Protocol (LMDJP)—where robust filtering and fractionally integrated auto-regressions are combined in an environment characterized by several players—namely, Forecast Producer, Forecast User, and Reality. Namely, we show that if judgment is parametrized as a deformation Likelihood function according to Lq-Likelihood methods, such a deformation affects (sometimes dramatically) the Power Spectrum, consequently inducing over-rejection in formal tests for no LM-effects based on the last. Our simulated and empirical evidence reveals that knowledge of the fractional integration parameter matters for the p-values of tests for spurious LM and, secondly, that the role of LM in belief formation is ambiguous.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"170 ","pages":"Article 105005"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142744339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Pricing asset beyond financial fundamentals: The impact of prosocial preference and image concerns","authors":"Dragana Draganac , Kelin Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.105004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.105004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the effects of two non-financial values—prosocial preferences and image concerns—on the pricing of socially beneficial stocks within experimental asset markets, isolating their effect from those of stocks' financial fundamentals. To this end, we designed a novel laboratory asset market where stocks shared the same fundamental value but varied in their associations with non-financial values. We found that prosocial preferences alone have a minimal impact on the market prices of socially beneficial stocks. However, the presence of image concerns significantly raises the market price of socially beneficial stocks. Additionally, under this condition, individuals trade these stocks at high prices regardless of their level of non-financial values. To benchmark the effect of non-financial values on stock valuation at the individual level, we conducted a parallel non-market experiment incorporating the same decision factors. In this non-market setting, prosocial preferences alone positively impacted stock reservation prices, and the addition of image concerns further increased these prices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"170 ","pages":"Article 105004"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142720797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}