International Studies Quarterly最新文献_第9页

Foreign Sponsorship of Armed Groups and Civil War 外国赞助武装团体和内战

IF 2.6 1区社会学

International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-04-05 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae065

Michael A Rubin, Iris Malone

{"title":"Foreign Sponsorship of Armed Groups and Civil War","authors":"Michael A Rubin, Iris Malone","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae065","url":null,"abstract":"s Under what conditions do armed groups escalate their campaigns to civil war? Existing research suggests foreign states’ material support is critical to explaining armed groups' conduct during civil war and, thereby, war intensification, duration, and outcomes. Thus far, little attention has been paid to understanding whether and how foreign support influences whether armed groups fight civil wars in the first place, largely due to data limitations. Armed group-level datasets have included only those already engaged in significant civil war violence, which introduces selection bias that precludes investigating factors that influence which groups fight civil wars. Leveraging the new Armed Groups Dataset (AGD), which measures characteristics of armed groups engaged in lower-level violence, we conduct a preliminary empirical investigation into the explanatory role of foreign sponsorship in group-level variation in civil war. While foreign sponsorship and civil war are correlated, there is little evidence that sponsorship has substantial independent explanatory value in predicting civil war. Rather, the evidence is consistent with claims that armed groups’ organizational characteristics account for both access to foreign sponsorship and, independently, their likelihood of escalating civil war.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140534107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mass Emigration and the Erosion of Liberal Democracy 大规模移民与自由民主的侵蚀

IF 2.6 1区社会学

International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-04-05 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae026

Daniel Auer, Max Schaub

引用次数: 0

Bending the Automation Bias Curve: A Study of Human and AI-Based Decision Making in National Security Contexts 弯曲自动化偏差曲线：国家安全背景下基于人类和人工智能的决策研究

IF 2.6 1区社会学

International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-04-01 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae020

Michael C Horowitz, Lauren Kahn

{"title":"Bending the Automation Bias Curve: A Study of Human and AI-Based Decision Making in National Security Contexts","authors":"Michael C Horowitz, Lauren Kahn","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae020","url":null,"abstract":"Uses of artificial intelligence (AI) are growing around the world. What will influence AI adoption in the international security realm? Research on automation bias suggests that humans can often be overconfident in AI, whereas research on algorithm aversion shows that, as the stakes of a decision rise, humans become more cautious about trusting algorithms. We theorize about the relationship between background knowledge about AI, trust in AI, and how these interact with other factors to influence the probability of automation bias in the international security context. We test these in a preregistered task identification experiment across a representative sample of 9,000 adults in nine countries with varying levels of AI industries. The results strongly support the theory, especially concerning AI background knowledge. A version of the Dunning–Kruger effect appears to be at play, whereby those with the lowest level of experience with AI are slightly more likely to be algorithm-averse, then automation bias occurs at lower levels of knowledge before leveling off as a respondent’s AI background reaches the highest levels. Additional results show effects from the task’s difficulty, overall AI trust, and whether a human or AI decision aid is described as highly competent or less competent.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140533261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Compliance Agreements: Emergent Flexibility in the Inter-American Human Rights System 遵守协议：美洲人权体系中新出现的灵活性

IF 2.6 1区社会学

International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-04-01 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae032

Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, Mariana Brocca, Isabel Anayanssi Orizaga Inzunza

{"title":"Compliance Agreements: Emergent Flexibility in the Inter-American Human Rights System","authors":"Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, Mariana Brocca, Isabel Anayanssi Orizaga Inzunza","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae032","url":null,"abstract":"Are agreements between states and victims an effective way to achieve reparations for human rights violations? We identify and evaluate a legal instrument hitherto ignored in analyses of the Inter-American Human Rights System: compliance agreements. These agreements emerged as a tool to negotiate the implementation of recommendations made by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights to states responsible for human rights violations. In the first part of the paper, we theorize the role of agreements in securing state compliance, and discuss the problem of self-selection in legal settlements. We then document the emergence of this legal instrument and its novel role in the Inter-American System. In the third part, we provide statistical evidence from event history, matching, difference-in-differences, and sensitivity analyses showing that agreements increase the probability of compliance and cut the expected time to compliance by more than half. Agreements thus contribute to a potential solution for the perceived crisis of compliance in the Inter-American Human Rights System. However, the Commission must offer greater transparency to facilitate the evaluation of this mechanism.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140533269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Carrots as Sticks: How Effective Are Foreign Aid Suspensions and Economic Sanctions? 胡萝卜当大棒：暂停外援和经济制裁的效果如何？

IF 2.6 1区社会学

International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-03-28 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae016

Claas Mertens

{"title":"Carrots as Sticks: How Effective Are Foreign Aid Suspensions and Economic Sanctions?","authors":"Claas Mertens","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae016","url":null,"abstract":"Existing research shows that economic coercion successfully influences targeted states’ behavior 38 percent of the time. This article integrates research on economic sanctions and foreign aid by assessing the relative effectiveness of two types of economic coercion: economic sanctions and foreign aid suspensions. It argues that suspending aid is more effective than adopting economic sanctions because (1) aid suspensions are economically beneficial for the adopting state, while sanctions are costly, (2) aid suspensions directly affect the targeted government’s budget, (3) market forces undermine sanctions but not aid suspensions, and (4) aid suspensions are less likely to spark adverse behavioral reactions. A quantitative analysis estimates the success rate of imposed aid suspensions to be 44 percent and that of economic sanctions to be 26 percent. The results are robust across two alternative datasets on economic coercion, and qualitative evidence corroborates the outlined mechanisms. The findings suggest that economic sanctions are less effective than previously thought and that large donor states have a higher chance of achieving political goals through economic coercion.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140331259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Effects of Self-Legitimation and Delegitimation on Public Attitudes toward International Organizations: A Worldwide Survey Experiment 自我合法化和去合法化对公众对国际组织态度的影响：全球调查实验

IF 2.6 1区社会学

International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-03-28 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae012

Farsan Ghassim

{"title":"Effects of Self-Legitimation and Delegitimation on Public Attitudes toward International Organizations: A Worldwide Survey Experiment","authors":"Farsan Ghassim","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae012","url":null,"abstract":"Public views on international organizations (IOs) have become a matter of central concern. While actors in world politics increasingly try to legitimize or delegitimize IOs, scholars have begun investigating such phenomena systematically. This paper provides the most comprehensive IO (de)legitimation study to date. Building on cueing theory, and considering input as well as output legitimacy, I examine the isolated and combined effects of delegitimation and self-legitimation on public perceptions of IOs. I concentrate on government criticism and citizen protests as two salient practices of delegitimation. In investigating self-legitimation, I focus on IOs’ public statements and institutional reforms. I study public opinion on the UN, World Bank, and WHO, as IOs of different functional scopes and levels of salience. In 2021, I conducted survey experiments on more than 32,000 citizens in ten countries worldwide (Australia, Canada, Colombia, Egypt, France, Hungary, Indonesia, Kenya, South Korea, and Turkey) – weighted by age, gender, region, and education. My main findings are: Delegitimation by governments and citizen protests has some limited effectiveness, depending on the IO in question. While IO self-legitimization statements and reforms in themselves do not boost public support for IOs, they are generally effective at neutralizing delegitimation attempts by governments and citizen protests.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"151 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140331268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Mercurial Commitment: Revisiting the Unintended Consequences of Military Humanitarian Intervention and Anti-Atrocity Norms 水军承诺：重新审视军事人道主义干预和反暴行规范的意外后果

IF 2.6 1区社会学

International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-03-26 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae023

Hiroto Sawada

{"title":"The Mercurial Commitment: Revisiting the Unintended Consequences of Military Humanitarian Intervention and Anti-Atrocity Norms","authors":"Hiroto Sawada","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae023","url":null,"abstract":"The debate on whether military humanitarian intervention and anti-atrocity norms, such as the responsibility to protect, cause perverse incentives, and provocative violence by a rebel group, has yet to reach a consensus. Specifically, existing theories are unable to fully explain why “emboldened” rebel groups provoke the government in some cases but not others. This paper reconciles this unresolved debate by arguing that it is not anti-atrocity norms but the temporary feasibility of humanitarian intervention that induces the potential rebel group to actually provoke the government. The inherent temporariness of the feasibility of large-scale intervention causes a commitment problem: An expectation of a temporary intervention shifts the balance of power toward a potential rebel and opens a quickly closing window of opportunity. A three-player game shows that, among other findings, a higher probability of humanitarian intervention alleviates the potential rebel’s incentive to fight, implying that the criticism of anti-atrocity norms is a “false charge.” The model also (i) explains why weaker groups can rebel in the shadow of external intervention and (ii) presents a novel implication that lowering the intervention cost can exacerbate the adverse incentive when a domestic commitment problem caused by the consolidation of government power is not severe.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140317226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Diversity without Adversity? Ethnic Bias toward Refugees in a Co-Religious Society 没有逆境的多样性？共同宗教社会中对难民的种族偏见

IF 2.6 1区社会学

International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-03-26 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae031

Anna Getmansky, Konstantinos Matakos, Tolga Sinmazdemir

引用次数: 0

Elitist Remedies? Complaint Resources and Representation in International Human Rights Bodies 精英救济？国际人权机构中的申诉资源和代表权

IF 2.6 1区社会学

International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-03-26 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae042

Christoph Valentin Steinert

{"title":"Elitist Remedies? Complaint Resources and Representation in International Human Rights Bodies","authors":"Christoph Valentin Steinert","doi":"10.1093/isq/sqae042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae042","url":null,"abstract":"This article investigates determinants of representation in international human rights bodies. It is argued that socioeconomic factors shape whether human rights abuses translate into complaints to international human rights mechanisms. To seek international remedy, victims of human rights abuse must be aware of remedies, and they require complaint literacy to file complaints. Alternatively, they need ties to skilled networks that might represent their cases. Such complaint resources are systematically shaped by socioeconomic factors, implying that international human rights remedies tend to represent a self-selection of economic elites. The theoretical claims are tested both on the national and individual levels with novel data on the human rights complaint mechanisms operated by the UN Special Procedures (UNSP). While this mechanism is universally open, the follow-up statements of the UNSP reflect socioeconomic disparities both on the national and individual levels. On the national level, human rights abuses translate into more UNSP statements directed at richer countries. On the individual level, lawyers and professors tend to be more likely to be covered by the UNSP. The findings contribute to our understanding of representation in international human rights remedies, suggesting that these mechanisms struggle to reach marginalized groups in low-income countries.","PeriodicalId":48313,"journal":{"name":"International Studies Quarterly","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140317204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Central Bankers in Crisis: Interpersonal Trust, Cooperation, and the Creation of the Fed Swap Network during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis 危机中的中央银行家：人际信任、合作与 2008 年全球金融危机期间美联储掉期网络的创建

IF 2.6 1区社会学

International Studies Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-03-23 DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqae030

Aditi Sahasrabuddhe

引用次数: 0