{"title":"LABOR MARKET INSTITUTIONS AND FERTILITY","authors":"Nezih Guner, Ezgi Kaya, Virginia Sánchez-Marcos","doi":"10.1111/iere.12708","DOIUrl":"10.1111/iere.12708","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Some high-income countries have total fertility rates as low as one child. Using Spanish administrative data, we document that temporary contracts correlate with lower first birth rates. Also, women with children are less likely to work split-shift jobs with long breaks in the middle of the day. We build a life-cycle model where women decide on labor supply and fertility. We show that reforms eliminating duality or split-shift jobs raise women's labor participation, narrow the employment gap between mothers and nonmothers, and boost fertility for working women. These reforms, together with childcare subsidies, increase married women's fertility to 1.8 children.</p>","PeriodicalId":48302,"journal":{"name":"International Economic Review","volume":"65 3","pages":"1551-1587"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141106692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Lucia Foster, Scott Ohlmacher, Itay Saporta-Eksten
{"title":"2020 Klein Lecture—Investment and Subjective Uncertainty","authors":"Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Lucia Foster, Scott Ohlmacher, Itay Saporta-Eksten","doi":"10.1111/iere.12709","DOIUrl":"10.1111/iere.12709","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A longstanding challenge in evaluating the impact of uncertainty on investment is obtaining measures of managers’ subjective uncertainty. We address this challenge by using a detailed survey measure of uncertainty collected by the U.S. Census Bureau for approximately 25,000 manufacturing plants. We find three key results. First, investment is negatively associated with higher uncertainty. Second, uncertainty is also negatively related to employment growth and overall shipments growth, which highlights the damaging impact of uncertainty. Third, rental capital and temporary workers are positively correlated with uncertainty, demonstrating that businesses switch from less flexible to more flexible inputs under uncertainty.</p>","PeriodicalId":48302,"journal":{"name":"International Economic Review","volume":"65 4","pages":"1591-1606"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141117949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"SPOUSAL LABOR SUPPLY, CAREGIVING, AND THE VALUE OF DISABILITY INSURANCE","authors":"Siha Lee","doi":"10.1111/iere.12712","DOIUrl":"10.1111/iere.12712","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article evaluates the insurance value of the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program among married households when wives face a trade-off between market hours and spousal care following their husbands' disability. Event study analyses show that wives' labor supply responses to their husbands' disability are small, and instead, a considerable amount of time is spent in spousal care. Using a dynamic structural model, I find that incorporating time loss due to spousal care increases the insurance value of SSDI relative to its costs. Finally, budget-neutral policy reforms that subsidize the cost of care can improve social welfare.</p>","PeriodicalId":48302,"journal":{"name":"International Economic Review","volume":"65 4","pages":"1681-1716"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141150686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"RAZOR-THIN MASS ELECTIONS WITH HIGH TURNOUT","authors":"David K. Levine, Cesar Martinelli","doi":"10.1111/iere.12711","DOIUrl":"10.1111/iere.12711","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We argue that traditional voting models fail to fully explain the frequency of very close mass elections with high turnout. Instead, we model elections as a competition between incentive schemes to mobilize voters. We elucidate conditions under which parties might prefer close elections, as the potential to be pivotal motivates voters instead of exclusively costly incentives as in nonclose elections. We show that, under those conditions, better voter targeting results in tighter races and increased turnout. Furthermore, the smaller party often has a strong incentive to commit to strategies that ensure a close election.</p>","PeriodicalId":48302,"journal":{"name":"International Economic Review","volume":"65 4","pages":"1607-1624"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/iere.12711","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140934057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A MODEL OF GROSS CAPITAL FLOWS: RISK SHARING AND FINANCIAL FRICTIONS","authors":"Hyunju Lee","doi":"10.1111/iere.12707","DOIUrl":"10.1111/iere.12707","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article builds a two-country model of gross capital flows where agents share tradable output risk using two bonds, subject to stochastic collateral constraints. Equilibrium portfolios are short in domestic bonds and long in foreign bonds because the endogenous movements of the real exchange rate provide a hedge against domestic output shocks. Under negative domestic shocks, these external positions transfer wealth from home to abroad. During the Great Recession, the model shows that such wealth transfer from the United States mitigated the consumption drop abroad. Quantitatively, financial frictions account for about half of the collapse in U.S. gross flows in 2008.</p>","PeriodicalId":48302,"journal":{"name":"International Economic Review","volume":"65 4","pages":"1941-1984"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140670522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"INTERTEMPORAL CONSUMPTION WITH ANTICIPATING, REMEMBERING, AND EXPERIENCING SELVES","authors":"Sam Cosaert, Tom Potoms","doi":"10.1111/iere.12705","DOIUrl":"10.1111/iere.12705","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study intertemporal choice through a novel and flexible framework that accounts for savoring of future consumption and memories of past consumption. The model uses standard intertemporal budget constraints but enriches preference structures with utility from anticipation, remembering, and experience. We also present an internal commitment mechanism that ensures dynamic consistency. We provide a revealed preference characterization of this model and apply it to quarterly consumption data from Spanish households. Utility from anticipation is important—and time inconsistency not strictly needed—to rationalize consumption patterns in the data.</p>","PeriodicalId":48302,"journal":{"name":"International Economic Review","volume":"65 3","pages":"1283-1322"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/iere.12705","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140589131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Surajeet Chakravarty, David Kelsey, Joshua C. Teitelbaum
{"title":"TORT LIABILITY AND UNAWARENESS","authors":"Surajeet Chakravarty, David Kelsey, Joshua C. Teitelbaum","doi":"10.1111/iere.12706","DOIUrl":"10.1111/iere.12706","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We explore the implications of unawareness for tort law. We study cases where injurers and victims initially are unaware that some acts can yield harmful consequences, or that some acts or harmful consequences are even possible, but later become aware. We model unawareness by Reverse Bayesianism. We compare the two basic liability rules of Anglo-American tort law, negligence and strict liability, and argue that negligence has an important advantage over strict liability in a world with unawareness—negligence, through the stipulation of due care standards, spreads awareness about the updated probability of harm.</p>","PeriodicalId":48302,"journal":{"name":"International Economic Review","volume":"65 4","pages":"1851-1876"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140602835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"PROMINENCE AND MARKET POWER: ASYMMETRIC OLIGOPOLY WITH SEQUENTIAL CONSUMER SEARCH","authors":"Makoto Hanazono, Noritaka Kudoh","doi":"10.1111/iere.12704","DOIUrl":"10.1111/iere.12704","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article presents a new perspective on the nature of market power through the lens of firm prominence. We build a model of oligopolistic price competition with sequential consumer search, showing that a larger firm sets a higher price than its smaller competitors. Consumers are more likely to encounter sellers from a larger firm both immediately and in future interactions, resulting in less-elastic demand for that firm. Small firms can free-ride on the prominent firm's market power to raise their prices and earn higher profits. The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index provides a useful guide for welfare evaluation.</p>","PeriodicalId":48302,"journal":{"name":"International Economic Review","volume":"65 3","pages":"1249-1281"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140371898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"TRADE SHOCKS AND HIGHER-ORDER EARNINGS RISK IN LOCAL LABOR MARKETS","authors":"Tomás R. Martinez, Ursula Mello","doi":"10.1111/iere.12703","DOIUrl":"10.1111/iere.12703","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article investigates the relationship between international trade and asymmetrical labor income risk. Using the case study of Brazil, we inspect how an increase in import penetration following the China shock impacted the distribution of idiosyncratic earnings changes across the country's local labor markets. We find that an increase in import penetration leads to a more dispersed and negatively skewed distribution. These effects can be explained by an increase in the volatility of hours worked following job and industry transitions, particularly from involuntary job separations.</p>","PeriodicalId":48302,"journal":{"name":"International Economic Review","volume":"65 4","pages":"1717-1746"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140378614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}