中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-06-13DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102477
Nanak Kakwani , Hyun H. Son
{"title":"How should we assess fiscal policies in response to emerging development challenges?","authors":"Nanak Kakwani , Hyun H. Son","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102477","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102477","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of government fiscal policies on people's living standards. Every government policy generates both winners and losers. This paper aims to address key questions, such as: Who should be considered the losers, and who should be the winners? What guiding principles should be used to determine these groups? How can we identify fiscal policies that will most effectively enhance people's living standards and overall well-being? These are the developmental challenges governments face in both developed and developing countries. Additionally, this paper analyzes relevant tools that can be used to evaluate various components of fiscal systems. Such assessments are essential for formulating fiscal policies that significantly affect people's quality of life. Finally, the paper discusses the challenges associated with assessing fiscal systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102477"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144330821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-06-11DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102473
Yang Xu , Wenbin Xiang , Peng Du , Liang Cao
{"title":"The unintended consequence of human capital intensity on energy intensity: Evidence from China","authors":"Yang Xu , Wenbin Xiang , Peng Du , Liang Cao","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102473","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102473","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Human capital is an essential determinant of economic growth. Exploiting the exogenous policy of university expansion in China as a quasi-experiment, this paper investigates the unintended impact of human capital intensity on energy intensity at the firm level using a difference-in-differences strategy. We find that the increase in human capital intensity reduces firms' energy intensity, thus improving energy efficiency. We find that more white-collar jobs and potential skill upgrades are the main drivers of reduced energy intensity. Moreover, we find that the impact on energy intensity is larger for private firms, light industry firms and firms in non-capital cities. Our findings provide an unintended but important consequence of human capital improvement through the lens of energy consumption.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102473"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144321666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-06-11DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102478
Xin Zhang , Xi Chen , Hong Sun , Yuanjian Yang
{"title":"Blowin’ in the wind: Smog and suicidal ideation among school-age children","authors":"Xin Zhang , Xi Chen , Hong Sun , Yuanjian Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102478","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102478","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper attempts to provide one of the first population-based causal estimates of the effect of air pollution on suicidal ideation—a key precursor to suicide attempt and completion—among school-age children. We use daily variations in the local wind direction as instruments to address endogeneity in pollution exposure. Matching a unique risk behavior survey of 55,000 students from 273 schools with comprehensive data on air pollutants and weather conditions according to the exact date and location of schooling, our findings indicate that a 1 % decline in daily PM2.5 is associated with a 0.36 % reduction in the probability of suicidal ideation. Moreover, the dose-response relationship reveals that the marginal effects increase significantly and non-linearly with elevated concentration of PM2.5. The effect is particularly pronounced among younger, male, students from low-educated families, and students with lower grades.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102478"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144280834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-06-10DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102474
Yanqiao Zheng
{"title":"Ownership concentration and independent director effectiveness: Governance challenges under China's new company law","authors":"Yanqiao Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102474","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102474","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The recently amended Company Law of China, effective July 2024, introduces new provisions aimed at strengthening the role of independent directors. This paper analyzes the impact of ownership concentration on independent directors' dissent in Chinese listed firms, drawing on board proposal and regulatory letter data. Results indicate that higher ownership concentration significantly suppresses dissent, highlighting governance challenges inherent to concentrated ownership structures. Specifically, a one-standard-deviation increase in ownership concentration, proxied by the Herfindahl index of the top three shareholders, reduces the likelihood of dissent by 0.06 %, a substantial decline given the average dissent rate of 0.42 %. Robustness checks, including alternative concentration indices and instrumental variable approaches, validate these findings. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that ownership concentration most strongly suppresses dissent in matters concerning personnel changes, related-party transactions, equity changes, and investments, and in industries such as the Real Estate and Information Technology sectors. The paper also contrasts director qualifications, highlighting that Chinese directors are predominantly academics, whereas their U.S. counterparts typically have senior business experience, potentially affecting their oversight capabilities. Low remuneration and the absence of penalties further reduce the incentive for Chinese independent directors to dissent. Consequently, dissent by independent directors has limited value of internal oversight, with only 11 out of 4784 regulatory letters linked to prior dissent. The paper proposes stricter nomination procedures, performance-based compensation tied to governance outcomes with punitive measures for non-compliance, and tailored training programs to improve oversight. These reforms are crucial for strengthening corporate governance and safeguarding minority shareholder interests in high-concentration environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102474"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144280833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-06-06DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102451
Muyi Li , Yamo Wang , Yang Yue
{"title":"From welfare enterprises to broad tax incentives: Effects of employment policy changes on disabled in China","authors":"Muyi Li , Yamo Wang , Yang Yue","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102451","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102451","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study evaluates the shift in China's disability employment strategy from welfare enterprise systems to tax incentives using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011−2020). By applying Propensity Score Matching-Difference-in-Differences methodology, the study examines the impacts of the 2016 tax incentive policy on employment outcomes for middle-aged and elderly disabled individuals. Contrary to policy expectations, the findings reveal a decline in employment rates and weekly working hours for disabled individuals compared to their non-disabled peers. The dismantling of welfare enterprises, which previously provided stable jobs for disabled workers, contributed to this outcome. Economically disadvantaged and less-educated groups experienced the most severe setbacks, highlighting the uneven distribution of the policy's impacts. Structural barriers, including high compliance costs and employer biases, further constrained the policy's effectiveness. This study concludes that the current policy framework falls short of achieving its intended goals. Targeted interventions, such as workplace accommodations, subsidies, and vocational training, are crucial to addressing structural challenges and enhancing the inclusivity of disability employment policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102451"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144262071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-06-03DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102462
Chen Huang, Ning Jia
{"title":"Do policies reshape attitudes? Evidence from maternity leave expansion in China","authors":"Chen Huang, Ning Jia","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102462","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102462","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Maternity leave system has been established in most countries to support gender equality, with a worldwide growing trend towards expanding its durations. However, by emphasizing women's household responsibilities relative to men, expanded maternity leave durations could reinforce traditional gender role attitudes in the population. This paper explores a recent maternity leave expansion in China, the world's largest developing country with traditional gender norms. Based on the difference-in-differences approach, we show that longer maternity leave significantly reinforced individuals' traditional attitudes towards gender roles in the labor market and within households. The impacts are larger among males than among females, and mainly driven by men who initially held traditional views. The results also show a considerable shift towards traditional gender division of paid work and household responsibilities. Women's lower visibility in the workplace due to the reduced market demand may lead to the attitudinal changes. Overall, findings from this study highlight the role of policies in shaping public attitudes and the importance of incorporating gender-neutral policies in achieving gender equality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102462"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144253836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-06-03DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102463
Chao Zhong , Jiaxin Du , Hongbo Cai , Qi Fan
{"title":"Does China's overseas agricultural aids contribute to global food security?","authors":"Chao Zhong , Jiaxin Du , Hongbo Cai , Qi Fan","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102463","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102463","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study focuses on the impact of China's overseas agricultural aids on food production in recipient countries. An empirical analysis was conducted using country-level panel data from 2000 to 2022. Through the difference-in-differences (DID) model, the results confirm that China's overseas agricultural aids have a positive and significant effect on increasing food production in recipient countries. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive impact of overseas agricultural aids on food production is more pronounced in countries with higher poverty rates and those that are closer to China in terms of institutions or culture. Moreover, different aid mechanisms have varying effects. Further analysis of these mechanisms indicates that China's overseas agricultural aids primarily promote food production through two key channels: total factor productivity in agriculture and agricultural capital stock per capita. The findings of this study provide valuable guidance for optimizing overseas aid strategies and promoting sustainable agricultural development in recipient countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102463"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144240992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-06-03DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102460
Yunfei Zhang , Kevin Chen
{"title":"The role of access to expressways on industrial clustering development in China","authors":"Yunfei Zhang , Kevin Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102460","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102460","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Infrastructure development is considered a key driver of industrial growth. In this study, we used the difference-in-differences method to examine the effect of access to expressways on industrial clustering development. Our findings highlight that access to expressways was associated with a 6.5 % increase in the number of firms in specific industries. The results remained robust after several endogeneity tests. Furthermore, our mechanism analysis demonstrated that the effect was driven by the reduction of trade costs and alleviation of information friction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102460"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144240993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-05-31DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102454
Gene H. Chang , Ye Chen , Kathryn J. Chang
{"title":"Assessing effective VAT rates and tax efficiency at industry-level: The case of China","authors":"Gene H. Chang , Ye Chen , Kathryn J. Chang","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102454","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102454","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the real-world value-added tax (VAT) rates among industries are often non-uniform. Estimating effective VAT rates (EVATRs) at the industry level can increase understanding VAT burden and tax efficiency in individual industries. EVATRs should be solved endogenously in a general equilibrium framework, so the estimated EVATRs are consistent with the given data of the input-output relationship and industry net VAT revenues. We adopt this new approach to estimate the industry-level EVATRs and assess tax performance under China's multi-tiered VAT rate system on a set of newly released data. The results demonstrate many Chinese industries - in particular, all service industries - pay more VAT taxes than their statutory rates require. The VAT overpayment is mainly driven by unrefunded VAT for inputs by small firms, induced by government policies. We also find China and its industries have higher VAT tax efficiency than most OECD countries, which challenges the conventional preference for a uniform VAT rate regime.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102454"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144231300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
中国经济评论Pub Date : 2025-05-31DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102458
Yue Li , Xiaoxue Zheng , Chu-Ping Lo
{"title":"Technological sanctions and their unintended consequences: Theory and evidence","authors":"Yue Li , Xiaoxue Zheng , Chu-Ping Lo","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102458","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102458","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We extend <span><span>Melitz's (2003)</span></span> model to demonstrate that technology sanctions can lead to unintended economic consequences when targeting countries with substantial technology stocks. Rather than hindering the sanctioned country's technological progress, sanctions may facilitate the emerge of high-productivity domestic firms that outpace international competitors, ultimately boosting the sanctioned country's overall productivity. Our empirical analysis, using the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model, reveals that when a sanctioned country's technology stock reaches approximately 75 % of the sanctioning country's level, the negative impact of sanctions diminishes, potentially resulting in counterproductive outcomes. Additionally, countries with larger populations demonstrate greater resilience to technology sanctions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102458"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144221748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}