IF 5.9 1区经济学

中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2026-08-01 Epub Date: 2026-07-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102758

Xiahai Wei, Jianing Zhou, Chenyu Zeng, Lingzheng Yu

{"title":"The impact of artificial intelligence exposure on delayed retirement behavior: Evidence from China","authors":"Xiahai Wei, Jianing Zhou, Chenyu Zeng, Lingzheng Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102758","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102758","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The accelerating pace of population aging has spurred governments worldwide to proactively tap into the potential of the elderly labor market. Policies such as raising the statutory retirement age and advancing the “silver dividend” initiative aim to convert demographic shifts into economic dividends. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly reshaping the nature of the labor market. Existing research has largely focused on the determinants of retirement decisions or the labor market effects of AI, with relatively little attention paid to the delayed retirement behavior of older workers in the era of AI. Against this backdrop, this paper explores the impact of AI exposure on older workers' decisions to delay retirement and the underlying mechanisms. Using micro-level individual data from China, this paper finds that the higher the level of AI exposure in an older worker's occupation, the lower the probability of delaying retirement. Mechanism tests reveal that exposure to AI reduces older workers' probability of delayed retirement by leading to job displacement, a decline in work-related returns, and a loss of confidence in the future. Furthermore, it is found that the negative impact of AI exposure on delayed retirement is more pronounced in groups that are highly educated, male, in poor health, have high family income, have purchased pension insurance, and receive support from their children. This paper offers insights and policy recommendations on how to better tap into the potential of the older workforce in the age of AI.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 102758"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148740414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Examining year-end spending surge and ratchet effect: Evidence from bunching estimation and zero-based budget reform in China 检视年终支出激增和棘轮效应：来自中国聚类估算和零基预算改革的证据

IF 5.9 1区经济学

中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2026-08-01 Epub Date: 2026-07-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102760

Jidong Li, Cheng Yuan

引用次数: 0

“Friend-shoring” and global supply chains: Empirical evidence from the semiconductor industry “朋友支持”与全球供应链：来自半导体行业的经验证据

IF 5.9 1区经济学

中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102742

Yanyun Li, Faqin Lin, Kaiyue Yang, Qianqian Zhang

{"title":"“Friend-shoring” and global supply chains: Empirical evidence from the semiconductor industry","authors":"Yanyun Li, Faqin Lin, Kaiyue Yang, Qianqian Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102742","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102742","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Drawing on U.S. global trade data from 2015 to 2023, this study empirically examines the impact of the “friend-shoring” policy on semiconductor supply chain dynamics. The analysis reveals that a one-standard-deviation improvement in bilateral political relations is associated with a 0.28 percentage point increase in the U.S. import share of semiconductors from politically aligned countries. Supply chain realignment shows considerable heterogeneity: trade in raw materials and finished components has shifted toward politically aligned partners, whereas manufacturing equipment shows weaker responsiveness due to efficiency considerations and supply-side constraints. The policy has introduced a “security premium” in import prices, especially for manufacturing equipment and imports from upper-middle-income politically aligned partners. Despite U.S. efforts to reduce dependence on China, products with high reliance on Chinese sources show no substantial disruption. Moreover, allied countries have not experienced a significant increase in their export shares to the U.S. market, while China’s semiconductor exports to U.S. allies have continued to expand. These findings indicate that the friend-shoring has led to only limited restructuring within semiconductor supply chains and has not materially altered existing dependency patterns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102742"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148525101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Thermal extremes and airline reliability: Evidence from China's aviation market 极端温度与航空公司可靠性：来自中国航空市场的证据

IF 5.9 1区经济学

中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102741

Jingjun Hao, Di Wang, Xin Yao

引用次数: 0

Extreme heat and household consumption: Evidence from China 极端高温和家庭消费：来自中国的证据

IF 5.9 1区经济学

中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102746

Mengmeng Guo, Yixiang Yu

引用次数: 0

Government procurement as a catalyst: Reshaping firm entry-exit dynamics in China 政府采购作为催化剂：重塑中国企业的进出动态

IF 5.9 1区经济学

中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102744

Tingwei Luo, Jianhao Lin

{"title":"Government procurement as a catalyst: Reshaping firm entry-exit dynamics in China","authors":"Tingwei Luo, Jianhao Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102744","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102744","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Government procurement is a key demand-side policy tool for state intervention in the economy, as it not only directly influences micro-corporate decision making but also shapes regional industry dynamics. Nevertheless, its industry-level impacts remain underexplored. This study adopts the perspective of firm entry and exits to investigate how government procurement shapes regional industry dynamics. We find that government procurement significantly increases the entry of new firms in regional industries while also promoting firm exit. A series of robustness tests and IV-based causal identification demonstrate the reliability of the result. Mechanism analysis reveals that, on the one hand, by raising the proportion of contracts awarded to local firms, government procurement sends a policy signal of supporting local industry, thereby encouraging both entry and exit. On the other hand, by prefer small and medium-sized enterprises (SME), it enhances market competition and stimulates firm entry and exit. Further analysis shows that: first, government procurement also generates supply-chain spillover effects, extending its influence to upstream and downstream industries; second, the distribution of procurement contracts among firms within an industry moderates the impact of procurement; third, the impact of government procurement on the entry and exit of enterprises ultimately enhances the industry's innovation capability; and finally, the effect of government procurement on firm entry and exit is stronger in regions with a better business environment. This study provides policy insights for optimizing government procurement policies to promote regional industrial development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102744"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148500098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Tax incentives and firm compliance: Evidence from China 税收优惠与企业合规：来自中国的证据

IF 5.9 1区经济学

中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102747

Jingjing Fu, Zhikuo Liu, Shuyi Wang, Xiaolu Zhao

引用次数: 0

How do housing rents affect migrants' health? Evidence from the China migrants dynamic survey 住房租金如何影响流动人口的健康？来自中国移民动态调查的证据

IF 5.9 1区经济学

中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102691

Liping Liao, Minzhe Du, Chenglei Zhang

{"title":"How do housing rents affect migrants' health? Evidence from the China migrants dynamic survey","authors":"Liping Liao, Minzhe Du, Chenglei Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102691","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102691","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High housing rents and housing costs have played a critical role in residents’ welfare, especially for migrants who are usually low-socioeconomic, and how housing rent shapes migrants’ health has become an important social issue. Using the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey data, this study finds that rising housing rents are negatively correlated with migrants' self-rated health and lead to an increase in the probability of suffering from diseases for them. The negative effect of housing rent is larger for female or low-educated migrants, and short-term migrants are also more sensitive to housing rent change. Besides, housing rents have little significant impact on the health of locals. Three underlying mechanisms are verified. First, rising housing rents lead to the adjustment of family consumption structure, decrease the proportion of non-housing expenditures, and increase their working hours, which negatively affects their health. Second, rising housing rents may decrease their medical care accessibility or reduce their health care utilization level, which is harmful for migrants' health. Third, the decrease in social interaction level may also mediate the negative role of housing rents in migrants' health.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102691"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148525103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Quantifying the Global Value Chain and Welfare Effects of RCEP: Implications for the U.S.-China Trade Frictions 量化RCEP的全球价值链和福利效应：对中美贸易摩擦的影响

IF 5.9 1区经济学

中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102743

Shuijun Peng, Lamei Wu, Shangyao Zhou, Jialin Xu, Bo Gao

{"title":"Quantifying the Global Value Chain and Welfare Effects of RCEP: Implications for the U.S.-China Trade Frictions","authors":"Shuijun Peng, Lamei Wu, Shangyao Zhou, Jialin Xu, Bo Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102743","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102743","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper quantifies the impact of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on global value chains (GVCs) and welfare. Using a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model with global input-output linkages, we distinguish between tariffs on intermediate and final goods to capture the granular trade-cost dynamics of RCEP’s implementation. Our results show that RCEP significantly bolsters intra-regional trade and enhances complex GVC participation, although patterns of integration diverge: China and Australia expand primarily through forward linkages, while Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN members integrate more deeply through backward linkages. Welfare decomposition reveals that more than half of the total gains are driven by indirect channels, specifically intermediate-goods trade and sectoral linkages, rather than direct final-goods liberalization. Counterfactual simulations further demonstrate that RCEP serves as a critical strategic buffer against global trade disruptions. While the U.S.-China trade war and the emerging “Trump 2.0” reciprocal tariff regimes pose substantial risks, deeper regional integration and services liberalization can significantly mitigate these adverse welfare shocks. These findings underscore that RCEP functions as a strategic anchor for regional value chains, playing a pivotal role in bolstering supply-chain resilience against the structural shifts and heightened uncertainties of the global trade environment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102743"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148554719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Reap more than sow: Experimental evidence of spillover effects from free eyeglass distribution among rural students in China 收获大于播种：中国农村学生免费发放眼镜溢出效应的实验证据

IF 5.9 1区经济学

中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2026-07-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102745

Jingchun Nie, Han Liu, Zulihumaer Reheman, Yaojiang Shi

{"title":"Reap more than sow: Experimental evidence of spillover effects from free eyeglass distribution among rural students in China","authors":"Jingchun Nie, Han Liu, Zulihumaer Reheman, Yaojiang Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102745","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102745","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a randomized controlled trial across 31 rural junior high schools in China, this study examines the spillover effects of providing free eyeglasses to myopic students on the visual health of their non-myopic peers. Within one school year, the intervention significantly reduced visual deterioration among non-myopic students by 0.48 lines and lowered new myopia incidence by 10 percentage points (a 24.3% decline), while also improving eye-use behaviors. These spillovers cannot be explained by conventional interaction-based or shared environmental mechanisms typically emphasized in non-infectious health interventions. Instead, they are more consistent with observational social learning: non-myopic students observe peers being diagnosed with myopia and required to wear eyeglasses, which increases their awareness of vision risks, updates their risk perceptions, and shapes their attitudes toward eyeglasses, thereby prompting protective behavioral changes. This mechanism extends positive spillover effects beyond context-specific interventions (e.g., infectious diseases) to a broader range of health interventions, and offers new insights into the prevention of non-infectious conditions such as myopia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102745"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148525099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

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