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Global monetary policy shocks and the adaptation of supply chains 全球货币政策冲击与供应链适应
IF 5.5 1区 经济学
中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2025-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102535
Chang Li , Wei Li , Yuhui Shao
{"title":"Global monetary policy shocks and the adaptation of supply chains","authors":"Chang Li ,&nbsp;Wei Li ,&nbsp;Yuhui Shao","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102535","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102535","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how global monetary policy shocks (MPS) transmitted through trade networks affect supply chain adaptation of Chinese firms. When exposed to higher supplier-side MPS, firms experience significantly higher separation rates and lower foreign entry rates. Our findings remain robust across a range of alternative MPS measures. In response, firms shift their sourcing from high-interest-rate countries to low-interest-rate countries, but they do not re-shore. We show that trade credit and price adjustment by suppliers are important for explaining the restructuring. The disruption is more likely driven by customer decisions. Moreover, heterogeneities show that firms with stricter credit constraints are more sensitive to MPS, while longer-duration supply chain relationships show greater resilience. The supply chain adaptation induced by MPS also leads to adverse real economic outcomes for imports, exports, and profitability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102535"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144921564","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary policy in China: High-frequency shocks and the signaling effects 中国货币政策：高频冲击与信号效应
IF 5.5 1区 经济学
中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102521
Qing Liu , Wenlan Luo , Qiaoqin Xiong
{"title":"Monetary policy in China: High-frequency shocks and the signaling effects","authors":"Qing Liu ,&nbsp;Wenlan Luo ,&nbsp;Qiaoqin Xiong","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102521","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102521","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper constructs high-frequency monetary policy shocks for China using intra-day government bond futures price changes around policy announcements. Exploiting the PBC’s unique announcement protocol (2017–2019), we isolate exogenous policy surprises and trace their dynamic effects. Policy surprises have transient impacts on interbank markets but induce persistent adjustments in broader financial markets and real outcomes, indicating transmission through a signaling channel. Further decomposition reveals a crucial asymmetry: pure policy shocks and policy stance changes are persistently contractionary while shocks conveying the central bank’s information are modestly expansionary. Our findings show that overall policy impact reflects competing signals and provide a framework for identifying central bank communication’s dual role in signaling both policy stance and economic outlook in emerging markets with evolving price-based regimes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102521"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144906922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Excellent human capital or institution? Evidence from judicial reform of the judge quota system in China 优秀的人力资本或制度？中国法官配额制司法改革的证据
IF 5.5 1区 经济学
中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2025-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102534
Hongli Chu , Ivan Y. Sun , Jianxiong Wang
{"title":"Excellent human capital or institution? Evidence from judicial reform of the judge quota system in China","authors":"Hongli Chu ,&nbsp;Ivan Y. Sun ,&nbsp;Jianxiong Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102534","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102534","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The recent major judicial reforms in China involve implementing a judge quota and personnel management system. To date, little is known about the impact of the reforms. Using over 14 million Chinese court judgments data from 2014 to 2018, this article evaluates the connections between qualified judges and labor specialization and judicial efficiency and quality. This study found that the judge quota reform in China has improved judicial efficiency and quality due mainly to the personnel classification management system rather than the reappointed judges. By introducing task-specific returns to specialization in the judicial system, the personnel classification management system has allowed judges to concentrate on their adjudicative tasks instead of administrative and secretarial duties and thereby improving judicial performance. Institution design plays an important role in optimizing resource allocation and improving efficiency. Implications for policy and future research are discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102534"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144902374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of family size on intergenerational support for elderly parents and their life expectancy: Evidence from China’s “Later, Longer, Fewer” campaign 家庭规模对老年父母代际赡养及其预期寿命的影响：来自中国“晚、长、少”运动的证据
IF 5.5 1区 经济学
中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102528
Cynthia Bansak , Eva Dziadula , Sophie Xuefei Wang
{"title":"The effect of family size on intergenerational support for elderly parents and their life expectancy: Evidence from China’s “Later, Longer, Fewer” campaign","authors":"Cynthia Bansak ,&nbsp;Eva Dziadula ,&nbsp;Sophie Xuefei Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102528","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102528","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study documents increased life expectancy among elderly parents in China whose adult children were exposed to the “Later, Longer, Fewer” (LLF) family planning campaign in the 1970s. We leverage the variation in policy exposure at the province, urban, and birth-cohort level to understand the extent to which the LLF campaign has affected social networks and intergenerational support for elderly parents. The plausible channels that may impact life expectancy are living arrangements, visits, and financial transfers. Using the 2011 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we identify adults of childbearing age who were exposed to the LLF campaign and whose fertility was reduced. We find that greater LLF exposure increases the likelihood of the wife’s parents co-residing in her household. The increase in elderly support, however, is largely manifested through more visits and financial transfers from their sons’ families, which is unsurprising in a patrilineal society. Most gains are driven by rural households.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102528"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144858099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Through trials and hardships: Internal migration and locus of control among Chinese entrepreneurs 风雨兼程：中国企业家的内部迁移与控制点
IF 5.5 1区 经济学
中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2025-08-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102536
Xiaodong Zheng , Jingru Ren , Yanran Zhou
{"title":"Through trials and hardships: Internal migration and locus of control among Chinese entrepreneurs","authors":"Xiaodong Zheng ,&nbsp;Jingru Ren ,&nbsp;Yanran Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102536","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102536","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Socio-emotional skills are essential for entrepreneurial behavior and firm performance, yet little is known about how entrepreneurial traits are associated with major life events such as migration. This study investigates the relationship between internal migration experience (IME) and the locus of control (LOC) among entrepreneurs, a psychological trait with significant implications for various life and organizational outcomes. We first develop a theoretical framework to explore how migration may relate to entrepreneurs' LOC. Using nationally representative datasets from China, we compare entrepreneurs with IME who returned to their hometowns with those who have never migrated. The results show robust evidence that returnees exhibit stronger internal LOC than non-migrants, partially explaining the positive link between migration and entrepreneurial behaviors. This observed relationship is more pronounced among those who migrated earlier in life and appears weaker among individuals with prolonged migration durations. The positive association is also more evident among male entrepreneurs, those born after 1980, members of the ethnic majority, and entrepreneurs from smaller cities. Mechanism analysis further suggests that while IME is linked to health deterioration and weakened origin-based social networks, it is also associated with gains in work experience, managerial skills, cultural assimilation, and socioeconomic improvement, which contribute to strengthening internal control beliefs. Our findings underscore the relevance of internal migration for entrepreneurial behavior, particularly through the lens of socio-emotional skills, and suggest the importance of migration policies for inclusive urban development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102536"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144879656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial liberalization and capital allocation in China 中国的金融自由化与资本配置
IF 5.5 1区 经济学
中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102503
Zhewei Zhang , Zhiwei Xu , Fangxing Zhou
{"title":"Financial liberalization and capital allocation in China","authors":"Zhewei Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhiwei Xu ,&nbsp;Fangxing Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102503","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102503","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The aim of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate the consequences of capital account liberalization on China’s real economy and capital allocations when economic uncertainty surges. We construct a heterogeneous-agent open economy dynamic general equilibrium model featuring financially constrained households and multiple types of saving instruments, including housing assets and foreign assets. Capital account liberalization offers China’s domestic households more options for purchasing foreign assets as an alternative saving instrument, enhancing consumption-smoothing capacities and mitigating the crowding-out effect of the housing sector on the real economy. The quantitative analysis further indicates that in the short run, the reduced investment demand for housing assets caused by financial liberalization leads to more capital being allocated to the domestic real sector, and in the long run, a trade-off exists between smoothing consumption and promoting output. When uncertainty increases, capital account liberalization can improve social welfare and facilitate capital flows from the housing sector to the real sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102503"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144829906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The missing rich households and wealth polarization in 21st century China 21世纪中国的富户缺失与财富两极分化
IF 5.5 1区 经济学
中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102533
Yangcheng Yu , Shi Li , Qinghai Li
{"title":"The missing rich households and wealth polarization in 21st century China","authors":"Yangcheng Yu ,&nbsp;Shi Li ,&nbsp;Qinghai Li","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102533","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102533","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the evolution of wealth polarization throughout the 21st century, using data from the Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP) and the Top Incomes in China (TIC) database. Our findings reveal a significant increase in polarization from 2002 to 2013, followed by a period of stabilization and signs of moderation by 2018. Decomposing polarization into alienation and identification, we observe that alienation (between group inequality) continues to rise from 2002 to 2018, while identification (within group cohesion) increases until 2013 but declines thereafter. The underrepresentation of rich households leads to an underestimation of alienation and an overestimation of identification. While these counterbalancing effects contribute to higher polarization levels, they do not alter the trend during the period. However, as the mitigating effect on identification diminishes and the growing effect on alienation intensifies, it suggests potential challenges in accurately tracking future changes in wealth polarization using survey data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102533"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144829907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade liberalization and manufacturing robot adoption: Evidence from Chinese free trade agreements 贸易自由化与制造业机器人采用：来自中国自由贸易协定的证据
IF 5.5 1区 经济学
中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2025-08-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102531
Fei Nie , Xiaoli Etienne , Jian Li , Hualu Hu
{"title":"Trade liberalization and manufacturing robot adoption: Evidence from Chinese free trade agreements","authors":"Fei Nie ,&nbsp;Xiaoli Etienne ,&nbsp;Jian Li ,&nbsp;Hualu Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102531","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102531","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on robot adoption in manufacturing products exported to China (MPEC) by partner countries, using Chinese Free Trade Agreements (CFTAs) as quasi-experiments. Empirical analyses show that the removal of trade barriers and the subsequent increase in bilateral trade flows following the implementation of CFTAs boosted robot adoption in partner countries' MPEC. Notably, this effect is stronger for non-automotive sectors, developing countries with lower technology capacity, countries focusing on downstream-oriented production, and those with lower transportation costs to China. Moreover, we demonstrate that increased export concentration on China is the primary channel through which partners reorganize production and increase market-oriented robot adoption in MPEC, supporting the export diversion effect of trade liberalization rather than the export creation effect of CFTAs. Beyond tariff reductions, the enforceable WTO + X and WTO-X provisions under CFTAs contribute to robot adoption in MPEC. These findings shed light on how trade liberalization influences manufacturing reorganization toward automation and its potential benefits for partner countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102531"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144860249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inside job, Chinese style: Suspicious use of public funds under fiscal pressure 中国风格的内奸：在财政压力下可疑地使用公共资金
IF 5.5 1区 经济学
中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2025-08-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102532
Qun Bao , Rui Huang , Guoqin Pan , Laixun Zhao
{"title":"Inside job, Chinese style: Suspicious use of public funds under fiscal pressure","authors":"Qun Bao ,&nbsp;Rui Huang ,&nbsp;Guoqin Pan ,&nbsp;Laixun Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102532","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102532","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Governments usually increase taxes or cut spending to tackle deficits. In contrast, local governments in China tend to increase suspicious uses of public funds under fiscal pressure, which is not well understood. Using the reduction of agricultural tax as a revenue shock, we find that greater fiscal pressure leads to higher questionable fund use by county governments. The suspicious activities are triggered by the motivation to reallocate resources, to fields that correlate with officials' own interests like stimulating local economic growth, pursuing personal promotion as well as grabbing resources before retirement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102532"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144879657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Budget rollover and year-end spending in China: evidence from public procurement contracts 中国的预算展期和年终支出：来自公共采购合同的证据
IF 5.5 1区 经济学
中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2025-08-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102522
Yuchen Guo , Pinghan Liang
{"title":"Budget rollover and year-end spending in China: evidence from public procurement contracts","authors":"Yuchen Guo ,&nbsp;Pinghan Liang","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102522","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102522","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper exploits the reform of China's Budget Law, which restricts the rollover of fiscal surplus across years, to examines the impact of UILI (use-it-or-lose-it) budget rules on year-end spending spikes. We analyze the universe of public procurement contracts from 2014 to 2021 and develop a method to assess contract quality. We show substantial surges in procurement contracts at the end of the year, which are more likely to be of low quality. The difference-in-difference model indicates that after the reform, local governments award 25.8 % more procurement contracts and double spending on procurement in the last month of the year. The year-end spending surges concentrate on goods and construction projects procurement, high-value contracts, and favor local suppliers. It is likely that UILI rules intensify budgetary uncertainty embedded in hierarchical allocation of fiscal fund.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102522"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144829908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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