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Polls, Context, and Time: A Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Forecasting Model for US Senate Elections 民调、背景和时间：美国参议院选举的动态分层贝叶斯预测模型
IF 5.4 2区 社会学
Political Analysis Pub Date : 2022-01-18 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2021.42
Yehua Chen, R. Garnett, J. Montgomery
{"title":"Polls, Context, and Time: A Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Forecasting Model for US Senate Elections","authors":"Yehua Chen, R. Garnett, J. Montgomery","doi":"10.1017/pan.2021.42","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2021.42","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We present a hierarchical Dirichlet regression model with Gaussian process priors that enables accurate and well-calibrated forecasts for U.S. Senate elections at varying time horizons. This Bayesian model provides a balance between predictions based on time-dependent opinion polls and those made based on fundamentals. It also provides uncertainty estimates that arise naturally from historical data on elections and polls. Experiments show that our model is highly accurate and has a well calibrated coverage rate for vote share predictions at various forecasting horizons. We validate the model with a retrospective forecast of the 2018 cycle as well as a true out-of-sample forecast for 2020. We show that our approach achieves state-of-the art accuracy and coverage despite relying on few covariates.","PeriodicalId":48270,"journal":{"name":"Political Analysis","volume":"31 1","pages":"113 - 133"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41362685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
An Improved Method of Automated Nonparametric Content Analysis for Social Science 一种改进的社会科学非参数内容自动分析方法
IF 5.4 2区 社会学
Political Analysis Pub Date : 2022-01-07 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2021.36
Gary King, Connor Jerzak, Anton Strezhnev
{"title":"An Improved Method of Automated Nonparametric Content Analysis for Social Science","authors":"Gary King, Connor Jerzak, Anton Strezhnev","doi":"10.1017/pan.2021.36","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2021.36","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Some scholars build models to classify documents into chosen categories. Others, especially social scientists who tend to focus on population characteristics, instead usually estimate the proportion of documents in each category—using either parametric “classify-and-count” methods or “direct” nonparametric estimation of proportions without individual classification. Unfortunately, classify-and-count methods can be highly model-dependent or generate more bias in the proportions even as the percent of documents correctly classified increases. Direct estimation avoids these problems, but can suffer when the meaning of language changes between training and test sets or is too similar across categories. We develop an improved direct estimation approach without these issues by including and optimizing continuous text features, along with a form of matching adapted from the causal inference literature. Our approach substantially improves performance in a diverse collection of 73 datasets. We also offer easy-to-use software that implements all ideas discussed herein.","PeriodicalId":48270,"journal":{"name":"Political Analysis","volume":"31 1","pages":"42 - 58"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44479486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
PAN volume 30 issue 1 Cover and Back matter PAN第30卷第1期封面和封底
IF 5.4 2区 社会学
Political Analysis Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2021.45
{"title":"PAN volume 30 issue 1 Cover and Back matter","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/pan.2021.45","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2021.45","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48270,"journal":{"name":"Political Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"b1 - b2"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44933071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Introduction to the Special Issue: Innovations and Current Challenges in Experimental Methods 特刊导论:实验方法的创新和当前挑战
IF 5.4 2区 社会学
Political Analysis Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2021.26
Libby Jenke
{"title":"Introduction to the Special Issue: Innovations and Current Challenges in Experimental Methods","authors":"Libby Jenke","doi":"10.1017/pan.2021.26","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2021.26","url":null,"abstract":"Political science has increasingly embraced the experimental method to establish causal relationships suggested by theories and observational studies—from experiments’ traditional sub-disciplinary home, political psychology, to international relations. The most frequently voiced concern with experiments, qualms about their external validity in terms of sample, has been well documented and addressed (Coppock, Leeper, and Mullinix 2018; Krupnikov and Levine 2014; Krupnikov, Nam, and Style 2021; Lupton 2019; McDermott 2011; Mutz 2021). 1 Experiments uniquely provide scholars with the internal validity necessary to confidently identify causal effects, and issues with specific experiments tend to arise through errors of application by individual scholars rather than through any broad problems with the methodology.","PeriodicalId":48270,"journal":{"name":"Political Analysis","volume":"30 1","pages":"S3 - S7"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46837499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
PAN volume 30 issue 1 Cover and Front matter PAN第30卷第1期封面和封面问题
IF 5.4 2区 社会学
Political Analysis Pub Date : 2021-12-22 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2021.44
{"title":"PAN volume 30 issue 1 Cover and Front matter","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/pan.2021.44","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2021.44","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48270,"journal":{"name":"Political Analysis","volume":"30 1","pages":"f1 - f2"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2021-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43897972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Human Rights Violations in Space: Assessing the External Validity of Machine-Geocoded versus Human-Geocoded Data 空间侵犯人权行为：评估机器地理编码数据与人类地理编码数据的外部有效性
IF 5.4 2区 社会学
Political Analysis Pub Date : 2021-12-15 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2021.40
Logan Stundal, Benjamin E. Bagozzi, John R. Freeman, J. Holmes
{"title":"Human Rights Violations in Space: Assessing the External Validity of Machine-Geocoded versus Human-Geocoded Data","authors":"Logan Stundal, Benjamin E. Bagozzi, John R. Freeman, J. Holmes","doi":"10.1017/pan.2021.40","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2021.40","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Political event data are widely used in studies of political violence. Recent years have seen notable advances in the automated coding of political event data from international news sources. Yet, the validity of machine-coded event data remains disputed, especially in the context of event geolocation. We analyze the frequencies of human- and machine-geocoded event data agreement in relation to an independent (ground truth) source. The events are human rights violations in Colombia. We perform our evaluation for a key, 8-year period of the Colombian conflict and in three 2-year subperiods as well as for a selected set of (non)journalistically remote municipalities. As a complement to this analysis, we estimate spatial probit models based on the three datasets. These models assume Gaussian Markov Random Field error processes; they are constructed using a stochastic partial differential equation and estimated with integrated nested Laplacian approximation. The estimated models tell us whether the three datasets produce comparable predictions, underreport events in relation to the same covariates, and have similar patterns of prediction error. Together the two analyses show that, for this subnational conflict, the machine- and human-geocoded datasets are comparable in terms of external validity but, according to the geostatistical models, produce prediction errors that differ in important respects.","PeriodicalId":48270,"journal":{"name":"Political Analysis","volume":"31 1","pages":"81 - 97"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2021-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46399224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Rejoinder: Concluding Remarks on Scholarly Communications 复辩状：关于学术交流的结论性意见
IF 5.4 2区 社会学
Political Analysis Pub Date : 2021-12-02 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2021.48
Jonathan Katz, G. King, E. Rosenblatt
{"title":"Rejoinder: Concluding Remarks on Scholarly Communications","authors":"Jonathan Katz, G. King, E. Rosenblatt","doi":"10.1017/pan.2021.48","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2021.48","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We are grateful to DeFord et al. for the continued attention to our work and the crucial issues of fair representation in democratic electoral systems. Our response (Katz, King, and Rosenblatt Forthcoming) was designed to help readers avoid being misled by mistaken claims in DeFord et al. (Forthcoming-a), and does not address other literature or uses of our prior work. As it happens, none of our corrections were addressed (or contradicted) in the most recent submission (DeFord et al. Forthcoming-b).","PeriodicalId":48270,"journal":{"name":"Political Analysis","volume":"31 1","pages":"335 - 336"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2021-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41971307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Essential Role of Statistical Inference in Evaluating Electoral Systems: A Response to DeFord et al. 统计推断在评估选举制度中的重要作用:对DeFord等人的回应。
IF 5.4 2区 社会学
Political Analysis Pub Date : 2021-12-02 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2021.46
Jonathan N. Katz, Gary King, E. Rosenblatt
{"title":"The Essential Role of Statistical Inference in Evaluating Electoral Systems: A Response to DeFord et al.","authors":"Jonathan N. Katz, Gary King, E. Rosenblatt","doi":"10.1017/pan.2021.46","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2021.46","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Katz, King, and Rosenblatt (2020, American Political Science Review 114, 164–178) introduces a theoretical framework for understanding redistricting and electoral systems, built on basic statistical and social science principles of inference. DeFord et al. (2021, Political Analysis, this issue) instead focuses solely on descriptive measures, which lead to the problems identified in our article. In this article, we illustrate the essential role of these basic principles and then offer statistical, mathematical, and substantive corrections required to apply DeFord et al.’s calculations to social science questions of interest, while also showing how to easily resolve all claimed paradoxes and problems. We are grateful to the authors for their interest in our work and for this opportunity to clarify these principles and our theoretical framework.","PeriodicalId":48270,"journal":{"name":"Political Analysis","volume":"31 1","pages":"325 - 331"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2021-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42342713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Implementing Partisan Symmetry: A Response to a Response 实现党派对称:对回应的回应
IF 5.4 2区 社会学
Political Analysis Pub Date : 2021-12-02 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2021.47
Daryl R. DeFord, Natasha Dhamankar, M. Duchin, Varun Gupta, Mackenzie McPike, Gabe Schoenbach, Ki Wan Sim
{"title":"Implementing Partisan Symmetry: A Response to a Response","authors":"Daryl R. DeFord, Natasha Dhamankar, M. Duchin, Varun Gupta, Mackenzie McPike, Gabe Schoenbach, Ki Wan Sim","doi":"10.1017/pan.2021.47","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2021.47","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Katz, King, and Rosenblatt recently wrote a broad survey developing and extending the theory of partisan symmetry. Our paper reviewed the implementability of the theory, focusing on simplified scores of symmetry—seemingly compatible with their formulation—that are in wide use. We analyzed these simplified scores and concluded that they are not suited for redistricting reform. By our reading of their response, Katz, King, and Rosenblatt agree.","PeriodicalId":48270,"journal":{"name":"Political Analysis","volume":"31 1","pages":"332 - 334"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2021-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46272338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Minmaxing of Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding and Geography Level Ups in Predicting Race 贝叶斯改进姓氏地理编码的最大化和种族预测中的地理层次提升
IF 5.4 2区 社会学
Political Analysis Pub Date : 2021-11-29 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2021.31
Jesse T. Clark, John A. Curiel, T. Steelman
{"title":"Minmaxing of Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding and Geography Level Ups in Predicting Race","authors":"Jesse T. Clark, John A. Curiel, T. Steelman","doi":"10.1017/pan.2021.31","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2021.31","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Racial identification is a critical factor in understanding a multitude of important outcomes in many fields. However, inferring an individual’s race from ecological data is prone to bias and error. This process was only recently improved via Bayesian improved surname geocoding (BISG). With surname and geographic-based demographic data, it is possible to more accurately estimate individual racial identification than ever before. However, the level of geography used in this process varies widely. Whereas some existing work makes use of geocoding to place individuals in precise census blocks, a substantial portion either skips geocoding altogether or relies on estimation using surname or county-level analyses. Presently, the trade-offs of such variation are unknown. In this letter, we quantify those trade-offs through a validation of BISG on Georgia’s voter file using both geocoded and nongeocoded processes and introduce a new level of geography—ZIP codes—to this method. We find that when estimating the racial identification of White and Black voters, nongeocoded ZIP code-based estimates are acceptable alternatives. However, census blocks provide the most accurate estimations when imputing racial identification for Asian and Hispanic voters. Our results document the most efficient means to sequentially conduct BISG analysis to maximize racial identification estimation while simultaneously minimizing data missingness and bias.","PeriodicalId":48270,"journal":{"name":"Political Analysis","volume":"30 1","pages":"456 - 462"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2021-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46254036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
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