Political Analysis最新文献_第10页

Why We Should Use the Gini Coefficient to Assess Punctuated Equilibrium Theory 为什么要用基尼系数来评价间断均衡理论

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2021-07-23 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2021.25

Constantin Kaplaner, Yves Steinebach

引用次数: 5

Reducing Model Misspecification and Bias in the Estimation of Interactions 减少相互作用估计中的模型错误指定和偏差

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2021-07-23 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2021.19

M. Blackwell, Michael Olson

{"title":"Reducing Model Misspecification and Bias in the Estimation of Interactions","authors":"M. Blackwell, Michael Olson","doi":"10.1017/pan.2021.19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2021.19","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Analyzing variation in treatment effects across subsets of the population is an important way for social scientists to evaluate theoretical arguments. A common strategy in assessing such treatment effect heterogeneity is to include a multiplicative interaction term between the treatment and a hypothesized effect modifier in a regression model. Unfortunately, this approach can result in biased inferences due to unmodeled interactions between the effect modifier and other covariates, and including these interactions can lead to unstable estimates due to overfitting. In this paper, we explore the usefulness of machine learning algorithms for stabilizing these estimates and show how many off-the-shelf adaptive methods lead to two forms of bias: direct and indirect regularization bias. To overcome these issues, we use a post-double selection approach that utilizes several lasso estimators to select the interactions to include in the final model. We extend this approach to estimate uncertainty for both interaction and marginal effects. Simulation evidence shows that this approach has better performance than competing methods, even when the number of covariates is large. We show in two empirical examples that the choice of method leads to dramatically different conclusions about effect heterogeneity.","PeriodicalId":48270,"journal":{"name":"Political Analysis","volume":"30 1","pages":"495 - 514"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2021-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/pan.2021.19","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43572289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 21

Choosing Imputation Models 选择输入模型

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2021-07-12 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2021.39

M. Marbach

引用次数: 0

PAN volume 29 issue 3 Cover and Back matter PAN第29卷第3期封面和封底

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2021.18

引用次数: 0

Partisan Dislocation: A Precinct-Level Measure of Representation and Gerrymandering 党派错位：选区层面的代表性和选区划分

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2021-06-30 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2021.13

Daryl R. DeFord, Nicholas Eubank, Jonathan Rodden

引用次数: 9

Concluding Comments 总结评论

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2021-06-15 DOI: 10.1093/pan/mpv030

L. Keele, Suzanna Linn, Clayton Webb

引用次数: 4

Placebo Selection in Survey Experiments: An Agnostic Approach 调查实验中的安慰剂选择:一个不可知论的方法

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2021-06-14 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2021.16

Ethan Porter, Y. Velez

{"title":"Placebo Selection in Survey Experiments: An Agnostic Approach","authors":"Ethan Porter, Y. Velez","doi":"10.1017/pan.2021.16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2021.16","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Although placebo conditions are ubiquitous in survey experiments, little evidence guides common practices for their use and selection. How should scholars choose and construct placebos? First, we review the role of placebos in published survey experiments, finding that placebos are used inconsistently. Then, drawing on the medical literature, we clarify the role that placebos play in accounting for nonspecific effects (NSEs), or the effects of ancillary features of experiments. We argue that, in the absence of precise knowledge of NSEs that placebos are adjusting for, researchers should average over a corpus of many placebos. We demonstrate this agnostic approach to placebo construction through the use of GPT-2, a generative language model trained on a database of over 1 million internet news pages. Using GPT-2, we devise 5,000 distinct placebos and administer two experiments (N = 2,975). Our results illustrate how researchers can minimize their role in placebo selection through automated processes. We conclude by offering tools for incorporating computer-generated placebo text vignettes into survey experiments and developing recommendations for best practice.","PeriodicalId":48270,"journal":{"name":"Political Analysis","volume":"30 1","pages":"481 - 494"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2021-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/pan.2021.16","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45331185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5

Getting Time Right: Using Cox Models and Probabilities to Interpret Binary Panel Data 把握时机：使用Cox模型和概率解释二进制面板数据

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2021-06-14 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2021.14

Shawna K. Metzger, Benjamin T. Jones

{"title":"Getting Time Right: Using Cox Models and Probabilities to Interpret Binary Panel Data","authors":"Shawna K. Metzger, Benjamin T. Jones","doi":"10.1017/pan.2021.14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2021.14","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Logit and probit (L/P) models are a mainstay of binary time-series cross-sectional (BTSCS) analyses. Researchers include cubic splines or time polynomials to acknowledge the temporal element inherent in these data. However, L/P models cannot easily accommodate three other aspects of the data’s temporality: whether covariate effects are conditional on time, whether the process of interest is causally complex, and whether our functional form assumption regarding time’s effect is correct. Failing to account for any of these issues amounts to misspecification bias, threatening our inferences’ validity. We argue scholars should consider using Cox duration models when analyzing BTSCS data, as they create fewer opportunities for such misspecification bias, while also having the ability to assess the same hypotheses as L/P. We use Monte Carlo simulations to bring new evidence to light showing Cox models perform just as well—and sometimes better—than logit models in a basic BTSCS setting, and perform considerably better in more complex BTSCS situations. In addition, we highlight a new interpretation technique for Cox models—transition probabilities—to make Cox model results more readily interpretable. We use an application from interstate conflict to demonstrate our points.","PeriodicalId":48270,"journal":{"name":"Political Analysis","volume":"30 1","pages":"151 - 166"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2021-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42824222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 8

Multi-Label Prediction for Political Text-as-Data 政治文本即数据的多标签预测

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2021-06-14 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2021.15

Aaron Erlich, S. G. Dantas, Benjamin E. Bagozzi, Daniel Berliner, Brian Palmer-Rubin

引用次数: 6

PAN volume 29 issue 3 Cover and Front matter PAN第29卷第3期封面和封面问题

IF 5.4 2区社会学

Political Analysis Pub Date : 2021-06-02 DOI: 10.1017/pan.2021.17

Daniel M. Smith, Jordi Muñoz, Emily M. Farris, Enrique Hernández, Thomas J. Leeper, S. Hobolt, Denise Laroze, Thomas Robinson, Pablo Beramendi

引用次数: 0