Demographic Research最新文献

{"title":"Delayed first births and completed fertility across the 1940–1969 birth cohorts","authors":"Éva Beaujouan, K. Zeman, Mathías Nathan","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.48.15","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.48.15","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND The rise in the age at first birth has been universal in low-fertility countries in the last decades. Mothers who have their first child later tend to have fewer children, and in the absence of fertility catch-up at older ages, delayed fertility contributes to cohort fertility decline. OBJECTIVE We aim to study how changes in completed cohort fertility (quantum) relate to delayed age at first birth (tempo) across birth cohorts. METHODS We use birth histories collected in surveys or censuses in ten high-income countries. We rely on a decomposition analysis that quantifies how much the changes in age at first birth, mothers’ completed fertility conditional on age at first birth, and childlessness contribute to the total change in cohort fertility over the 1940–1969 birth cohorts.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44885767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A register-based account of period trends in union prevalence, entries, and exits by educational level for men and women in Finland","authors":"M. Jalovaara, Linus Andersson","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.48.14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.48.14","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND The decline in marriage and increases in cohabiting unions during childbearing ages represent a major change in family structures and family dynamics. Yet no comprehensive description has covered period trends in the prevalence of marital and nonmarital unions or partnership entry and exit rates across educational levels. OBJECTIVE We describe period trends in the proportion of individuals in union and the flow of union formation and dissolution at ages 18–49 across educational levels for men and women in 1989–2019 in Finland. METHODS We use register data with full histories of coresidential unions regardless of marital status. We calculate the age-specific yearly prevalence","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41864312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"World population aging as a function of period demographic conditions","authors":"F. Fernandes, C. Turra, Eduardo Luiz Gonçalves Rios Neto","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.48.13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.48.13","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Population aging is a fundamental element of the demographic transition. In the absence of births, deaths, and migration, the mean age of any population will increase one year per calendar year. The intensity of period birth, death, and migration conditions (i.e., their crude rates and the difference between their mean age and the mean age of the population) either lessen or strengthen this natural tendency of populations to age. OBJECTIVE We investigate the contribution of births, deaths, and migration to population aging across the globe from 1950 to 2100. We examine whether a concerted pattern of population aging is associated with changes in period demographic conditions.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42843162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Differential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess mortality and life expectancy loss within the Hispanic population.","authors":"Elizabeth Arias,&nbsp;Betzaida Tejada-Vera","doi":"10.4054/DemRes.2023.48.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2023.48.12","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Hispanic population resulted in the almost complete elimination of the long-standing Hispanic mortality advantage relative to the non-Hispanic White population. However, it is unknown how COVID-19 mortality affected the diverse Hispanic subpopulations.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>We estimate life expectancy at birth in 2019 and 2020 by select Hispanic country/region of origin and explore how changes in age-specific all-cause and COVID-19 mortality affected changes in life expectancy between 2019 and 2020 for each group.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We use final 2019 and 2020 mortality data from the National Center for Health Statistics and population estimates based on the 2019 and 2020 American Community Survey. We calculate life tables and apply decomposition techniques to explore the effects of changes in age- and cause-specific mortality on life expectancy.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Patterns of age- and cause-specific excess deaths and their impact on declines in life expectancy due to the COVID-19 pandemic differed substantially by Hispanic subgroup. Life expectancy losses ranged from 0.6 to 6.7 years among males and from 0.6 to 3.6 years among females.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Our findings highlight the heterogeneous impact of the COVID-19 pandemic within the Hispanic population.</p><p><strong>Contributions: </strong>Our findings contribute new information that will help future researchers identify the causes of the disproportionately severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Hispanic population. Our study underscores the importance of population disaggregation in endeavors to identify the multiple pathways by which the pandemic affected the Hispanic population.</p>","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"48 12","pages":"339-352"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10364128/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10278783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The question of the human mortality plateau: Contrasting insights by longevity pioneers","authors":"L. Dang, C. Camarda, F. Meslé, Nadine Ouellette, J. Robine, J. Vallin","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.48.11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.48.11","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND The debate about limits to the human life span is often based on outcomes from mortality at the oldest ages among longevity pioneers. To this day, scholars disagree on the existence of a late-life plateau in human mortality. Amid various statistical analysis frameworks, the parametric proportional hazards model is a simple and valuable approach to test the presence of a plateau by assuming different baseline hazard functions on individual-level data.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45350399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Union formation and fertility amongst immigrants from Pakistan and their descendants in the United Kingdom: A multichannel sequence analysis","authors":"J. Harrison, K. Keenan, F. Sullivan, H. Kulu","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.48.10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.48.10","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Previous work identifies conservative family behaviour amongst Pakistanis in the United Kingdom relative to natives, including earlier marriages, fewer dissolutions, and higher fertility. However, few studies have investigated how fertility and partnership are intertwined and interdependent. OBJECTIVE Our aims are, first, to identify differences between the family trajectories of Pakistanis and natives and, second, to determine if patterns are consistent across immigrant generations. Finally, we aim to identify how family trajectories vary across birth cohorts and education levels. METHODS We apply multichannel sequence analysis (MCSA) to data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study. We first use clustering methods to group similar individuals and then apply multinomial logistic regression to calculate the probability of belonging to a cluster based on individual characteristics. RESULTS The Pakistani population exhibits a higher likelihood of entering a direct marriage and having large families compared to natives. Cohabitation is rare amongst Pakistani population. These patterns have changed little between immigrant generations. Degree1 School of Geography and Sustainable Development & School of Medicine, University of St Andrews, United Kingdom. Email: jh383@st-andrews.ac.uk. 2 School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, United Kingdom. 3 School of Medicine, University of St Andrews, United Kingdom. Harrison et al.: Union formation and fertility of Pakistani immigrants and their descendants in the UK 272 https://www.demographic-research.org level education is associated with a higher likelihood of adopting behaviours typical to ancestral natives; however, the effects are not large enough to indicate convergence. CONTRIBUTION We demonstrate the need to investigate partnership and fertility trajectories simultaneously and show the value of MCSA for identifying differences between migrant groups. The results improve our understanding of family formation patterns of Pakistani immigrants and their descendants in the United Kingdom.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48048075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Migrating to a new country in late life: A review of the literature on international retirement migration","authors":"Esma Betül Savaş, Juul Spaan, K. Henkens, M. Kalmijn, H. van Dalen","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.48.9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.48.9","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND In the last few decades, a substantial number of older adults have migrated to new countries around the retirement age to raise their quality of life, a phenomenon that has been labeled as international retirement migration. The scattered body of research on this type of migration across disciplines has made it difficult to get an overview of why retirement migrants move and how they fare in their destination countries. OBJECTIVE This paper accumulates findings from research on international retirement migration from different disciplines to obtain a comprehensive picture of the field. We do so by (1) evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of methodological approaches, (2) reviewing empirical findings, and (3) discussing future research directions.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43330083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The sex preference for children in Europe: Children’s sex and the probability and timing of births","authors":"E. Cukrowska-Torzewska, M. Grabowska","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.48.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.48.8","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND The preference for having children of a particular sex may be reflected in fertility behavior. For example, parents who want to have a son may be more likely to have another child if their firstborn child is female or if they have two female children. They may also speed up the conception, resulting in a faster progression to the next child. OBJECTIVE We examine whether there is a sex preference for children in Europe, which is reflected in an increased/decreased probability of having another child and a shorter/longer time to the next birth given the sex of existing children. We distinguish between progression to the second and the third child and different cohorts.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44757315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Variations in male height during the epidemiological transition in Italy: A cointegration approach","authors":"F. Tosi, F. Scalone, R. Rettaroli","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.48.7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.48.7","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND The historical demography literature has a longstanding interest in establishing a connection between human body development and the living conditions experienced during infancy and childhood. Empirical research on such matters increasingly relies on survival indicators rather than classical economic measures of living standards, as the former are more directly linked to nutritional quality, material well-being levels, and technological development. OBJECTIVE We explore the relationship between epidemiological conditions and male adult height variation in Italy to understand if and to what extent progress in survival impacted human body evolution during the epidemiological transition.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49509999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The educational gradient in young singlehood: The role of gender and the gender climate","authors":"Lonneke van den Berg","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.48.6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.48.6","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Universities are described as “waiting halls” for union formation. However, little is known about the size of the educational gradient in single living after leaving home. OBJECTIVE This paper examines the educational gradient in single living after leaving home in 30 European countries and the role of gender and the gender climate in each country for this gradient. METHODS I use data from the European Social Survey, supplemented with data from the OECD and European Values Study for the contextual measures. Predicted probabilities for single living are compared across educational groups, genders, and countries. Using random slope models with an interaction between education and the gender climate, I examine whether the educational gradient is larger in less gender-egalitarian countries.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45259820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}