Demographic Research最新文献

{"title":"Using sequence analysis to visualize exposure to pregnancy in the postpartum period.","authors":"Dana Sarnak, Linnea Zimmerman, Wenxuan Huang, Alison Gemmill","doi":"10.4054/demres.2025.53.1","DOIUrl":"10.4054/demres.2025.53.1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Exposure to pregnancy during the postpartum period is shaped by biological and behavioral determinants, such as resumption of sexual activity, return of menses, and contraceptive use dynamics.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>We implement sequence and cluster analyses to generate new insights about exposure to pregnancy during the postpartum period using unique longitudinal data in a low-resource setting.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used population-based data from a sample of 1,935 Ethiopian women who provided reports on factors influencing exposure to pregnancy in the year following childbirth. We used sequence and cluster analyses to characterize patterns of women's reproductive behaviors during the postpartum period.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We identified five postpartum trajectories of exposure to pregnancy: (1) no sex; (2) family-planning adopters, no menses; (3) family-planning adopters, return of menses; (4) sex, no menses, no family planning; and (5) sex, menses, no family planning. The 'sex, no menses, no family planning' cluster (50% of the sample) was characterized by resumption of sexual activity around three months postpartum, amenorrhea, and no contraceptive adoption. Women in the two 'family-planning adopters' clusters (39%) resumed sexual activity and adopted contraception around three months postpartum but differ by return of menses. The 'no sex' cluster (5%) was characterized by no sexual activity, contraceptive use, or menses.</p><p><strong>Contribution: </strong>Sequence analysis offers new insights into a critical reproductive window by emphasizing the dynamic biological and behavioral states that influence distinct patterns of postpartum exposure to pregnancy. Establishing longitudinal trajectories of exposure to pregnancy has research and programmatic implications that include a more holistic understanding of postpartum fecundity and measuring unmet need for postpartum family planning.</p>","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"53 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12810866/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145999354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Amish fertility in the United States: Comparative evidence from the American Community Survey and Amish population registries.","authors":"Lyman Stone, Cory Anderson, Stephanie Thiehoff","doi":"10.4054/demres.2025.52.26","DOIUrl":"10.4054/demres.2025.52.26","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Quantitative studies of Amish population dynamics have been methodologically constrained by difficulties identifying Amish in national surveys. If Amish could be reliably identified in, for example, the American Community Survey (ACS), researchers could leverage its rich variables to document both demographic outcomes and their social predictors.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>Cross-validate two methods for studying Amish populations by comparing fertility measures in the ACS with the Cross-sectional Amish Population and Environment Database-2010s (CAPED-2010s), a large administrative record database of North American Amish.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We identify potential Amish ACS respondents through combinations of the attributes (1) Pennsylvania Dutch language use, (2) absence of household telephone, and (3) farming. We then calculate fertility measures derived from both the CAPED data and ACS data samples (2000-2021). This comparative method allows us to assess whether the two samples produce demographic comparable estimates.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Both methods produce remarkably consistent fertility statistics, including total fertility rates (just over six children), age-specific fertility rates (highest ages 20-29), and non-marital fertility (very low).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The strong agreement between ACS- and CAPED-2010s-derived demographic estimates validates both approaches for studying Amish populations.</p><p><strong>Contribution: </strong>The ACS's rich social variables complement CAPED-2010s' comprehensive demographic coverage, demonstrating the credibility of two separate large databases for studies of the Amish.</p>","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"52 ","pages":"869-886"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12337822/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144822946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Jointly Estimating Subnational Mortality for Multiple Populations.","authors":"Ameer Dharamshi, Monica Alexander, Celeste Winant, Magali Barbieri","doi":"10.4054/demres.2025.52.3","DOIUrl":"10.4054/demres.2025.52.3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Understanding patterns in mortality across subpopulations is essential for local health policy decision making. One of the key challenges of subnational mortality rate estimation is the presence of small populations and zero or near zero death counts. When studying differences between subpopulations, this challenge is compounded as the small populations are further divided along socioeconomic or demographic lines.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>We aim to develop a model to estimate subnational age-specific mortality rates that accounts for the dependencies in mortality experiences across subpopulations.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We develop a Bayesian hierarchical principal components based model that models correlations across subpopulations.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We test this approach in a simulation study and also use the model to estimate age- and sex-specific mortality rates for counties in the United States. The model performs well in validation exercises and the US estimates suggest substantial variation in mortality trends over time across geographic lines.</p>","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"52 ","pages":"71-110"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13082840/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147700334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Excess mortality associated with HIV: Survey estimates from the PHIA project.","authors":"Shannon M Farley, Giles Reid, Kay Yuengling, Connor Wright, Vesper H Chisumpa, George Bello, James M Juma, Abigail R Greenleaf, Stephen McCracken, Paul Stupp, Stéphane Helleringer, Jessica Justman","doi":"10.4054/demres.2024.51.38","DOIUrl":"10.4054/demres.2024.51.38","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Incomplete vital statistics systems in resource-limited countries hinder accurate HIV epidemic assessments. Population-based survey data combined with HIV infection biomarkers may partially address this gap, providing excess mortality estimates in households where people living with HIV (PLWH) reside.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>Examine household-level excess HIV mortality in households with PLWH using population-based survey data, including mortality reported by heads of households, and HIV biomarkers.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We compared mortality between households with and without PLWH using publicly available data from 11 Population-based HIV Impact Assessments conducted between 2015 and 2019 in Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Eswatini, Kenya, Malawi, Namibia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Eligible, consenting household members provided blood for HIV testing. Household-level regression models estimated deaths per 1,000 person-years (PY) for the three-year period before the survey; death rate ratios were calculated. Quasi-Poisson distribution accounted for household death over-dispersion.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Country-specific deaths rates per 1,000 PY were significantly higher among rural versus urban households for five countries. For example, in Cameroon, the rates were 9.3 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.7-9.9) versus 6.5 (95% CI: 5.9-7.1). In six countries, death rates were significantly higher (1.3-1.7-fold) among households with PLWH versus those without. Death rate ratios were significantly higher among rural (1.4-1.8-fold) and urban households (1.6-2.3-fold) with PLWH versus those without in four and three countries, respectively.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>General population household survey findings in multiple countries in Africa indicate that households where PLWH resided experienced excess mortality relative to other households.</p><p><strong>Contribution: </strong>The novel approach we use to describe HIV-related household-level mortality offers an additional method to measure progress toward zero AIDS-related deaths.</p>","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"51 2","pages":"1183-1200"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12087677/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144102934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How do environmental stressors influence migration? A meta-regression analysis of environmental migration literature","authors":"Shuai Zhou, Guangqing Chi","doi":"10.4054/demres.2024.50.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2024.50.2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"60 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139381657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Lives saved, lives lost, and under-reported COVID-19 deaths: Excess and non-excess mortality in relation to cause-specific mortality during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden","authors":"E. Mussino, Sven Drefahl, Matthew Wallace, S. Billingsley, S. Aradhya, Gunnar Andersson","doi":"10.4054/demres.2024.50.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2024.50.1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"43 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139385105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bayesian implementation of Rogers–Castro model migration schedules: An alternative technique for parameter estimation","authors":"Jessie Yeung, Monica Alexander, Tim Riffe","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.42","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.42","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND The Rogers–Castro model migration schedule is a key model for migration trends over the life course. It is applied in a wide variety of settings by demographers to examine the relationship between age and migration intensity. This model is nonlinear and can have up to 13 parameters, which can make estimation difficult. Existing techniques for parameter estimation can lead to issues such as nonconvergence, sensitivity to initial values, or optimization algorithms that do not reach the global optimum. OBJECTIVE We propose a new method of estimating Rogers–Castro model migration schedule parameters that overcomes most common difficulties.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"3 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138996083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The formal demography of kinship V: Kin loss, bereavement, and causes of death","authors":"H. Caswell, Rachel Margolis, Ashton M. Verdery","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.41","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.41","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"68 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138971301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Programmatic access to open statistical data for population studies: The SDMX standard","authors":"Frans Willekens","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.40","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.40","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND The public sector publishes vast amounts of open data and metadata. APIs (application programming interfaces) are transforming the way data are collected, documented, and disseminated. The transformation is slow, however, due to differences in communication protocol, data definition, and data format. The development is of particular relevance to demography, being a data-intensive science. It paves the way to the automation of data acquisition and the integration of data acquisition and data analysis. Together with the parallel development of literate programming, which allows the integration of text and computer code in a single document, programmatic access to data makes workflows transparent, verifiable, and easy to replicate by others. The Statistical Data and Metadata Exchange (SDMX) standard, which has emerged as a popular option for data and metadata exchange, makes finding and retrieving data and metadata easy and swift. Query strings form URLs with a standardised syntax.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"3 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139005575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Marital plans and partnership transitions among German opposite-sex couples: Couple agreement and gender differences","authors":"Dominika Perdoch Sladká","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.39","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.39","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Research shows that marital plans influence marital behavior. However, romantic partners may differ in their marital plans, and these differences can affect relationship outcomes. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between agreement in short-term marital plans and partnership transitions in German opposite-sex couples and to find whether there is a gender difference in the relationship between marital plans and the risk of marriage or dissolution. METHOD","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"24 16","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139009275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}