罗杰斯-卡斯特罗模型迁移时间表的贝叶斯实施：参数估计的替代技术

IF 2.1 3区社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Demographic Research Pub Date : 2023-12-15 DOI:10.4054/demres.2023.49.42

Jessie Yeung, Monica Alexander, Tim Riffe

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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景罗杰斯-卡斯特罗模式的移民时间表是研究生命过程中移民趋势的一个重要模式。人口学家将其广泛应用于研究年龄与迁移强度之间的关系。该模型为非线性模型，可有多达 13 个参数，这给估算带来了困难。现有的参数估计技术可能会导致不收敛、对初始值敏感或优化算法无法达到全局最优等问题。目标我们提出了一种估算罗杰斯-卡斯特罗模型迁移时间表参数的新方法，克服了大多数常见的困难。

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Bayesian implementation of Rogers–Castro model migration schedules: An alternative technique for parameter estimation

BACKGROUND The Rogers–Castro model migration schedule is a key model for migration trends over the life course. It is applied in a wide variety of settings by demographers to examine the relationship between age and migration intensity. This model is nonlinear and can have up to 13 parameters, which can make estimation difficult. Existing techniques for parameter estimation can lead to issues such as nonconvergence, sensitivity to initial values, or optimization algorithms that do not reach the global optimum. OBJECTIVE We propose a new method of estimating Rogers–Castro model migration schedule parameters that overcomes most common difficulties.

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来源期刊

Demographic Research DEMOGRAPHY-

CiteScore

3.90

自引率

4.80%

发文量

审稿时长

28 weeks

期刊介绍： Demographic Research is a free, online, open access, peer-reviewed journal of the population sciences published by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany. The journal pioneers an expedited review system. Contributions can generally be published within one month after final acceptance.