发布求助
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献

Demographic Research最新文献

筛选
英文 中文
Dynamics of the coefficient of variation of the age at death distribution 死亡年龄分布变异系数的动态变化
IF 2.1 3区 社会学
Demographic Research Pub Date : 2023-12-08 DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.38
Jacob Martin, J. Aburto, I˜naki Permanyer
{"title":"Dynamics of the coefficient of variation of the age at death distribution","authors":"Jacob Martin, J. Aburto, I˜naki Permanyer","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.38","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.38","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Indicators of lifespan inequality, such as the life table entropy or variance of age at death, provide a measure of inequality in the timing of death. A range of indicators of relative and absolute inequality exist, and their evolution over time and sensitivity to changes in age-specific mortality have been studied. However, the coefficient of variation, a relative indicator defined as the standard deviation divided by the mean of the age at death distribution, has yet to be studied","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"54 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138587149","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Analyzing hyperstable population models 分析超稳定人口模型
IF 2.1 3区 社会学
Demographic Research Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.37
Robert Schoen
{"title":"Analyzing hyperstable population models","authors":"Robert Schoen","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.37","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.37","url":null,"abstract":"OBJECTIVE Few methods are available for analyzing populations with changing rates. Here hyperstable models are presented and substantially extended to facilitate such analyses. METHODS Hyperstable models, where a known birth trajectory yields a consistent set of age-specific birth rates, are set out in both discrete and continuous form. Mathematical analysis is used to find new relationships between model functions for a range of birth trajectories. RESULTS Hyperstable population projection matrices can create bridges that project any given initial population to any given ending population. New, explicit relationships are found between period and cohort births for exponential, polynomial, and sinusoidal birth trajectories. In quadratic and cubic models, the number of cohort births equals the number of period births a generation later, with a modest adjustment. In sinusoidal models, cohort births equal the number of period births a generation later, modified by a factor related to cycle length.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"40 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138593545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reducing uncertainty in Delphi surveys: A case study on immigration to the EU 减少德尔菲调查中的不确定性：欧盟移民案例研究
IF 2.1 3区 社会学
Demographic Research Pub Date : 2023-12-06 DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.36
Rhea Ravenna Sohst, Eduardo Acostamadiedo, Jasper Tjaden
{"title":"Reducing uncertainty in Delphi surveys: A case study on immigration to the EU","authors":"Rhea Ravenna Sohst, Eduardo Acostamadiedo, Jasper Tjaden","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.36","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.36","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Following the rapid increase of asylum seekers arriving in the European Union in 2015/16, policymakers have invested heavily in improving their foresight and forecasting capabilities. A common method to elicit expert predictions are Delphi surveys. This approach has attracted concern in the literature, given the high uncertainty in experts’ predictions. However, there exists limited guidance on specific design choices for future-related Delphi surveys. OBJECTIVE We test whether or not small adjustments to the Delphi survey can increase certainty (i.e., reduce variation) in expert predictions on immigration to the EU in 2030.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"89 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138595957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Changes in birth seasonality in Spain: Data from 1863–1870 and 1900–2021 西班牙出生季节性的变化：1863-1870 年和 1900-2021 年的数据
IF 2.1 3区 社会学
Demographic Research Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.35
A. Recio Alcaide, César Pérez López, Francisco Bolúmar Montrull
{"title":"Changes in birth seasonality in Spain: Data from 1863–1870 and 1900–2021","authors":"A. Recio Alcaide, César Pérez López, Francisco Bolúmar Montrull","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.35","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.35","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Changes in birth seasonality patterns have been documented in several countries, whether long-lasting or temporary. In Spain, a decline in and absence of birth seasonality was reported in 1941–2000. This study extends the analysis to the full period of available monthly data, exploring changes in birth seasonality in Spain, its connection to social/health phenomena, and its related effects.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"16 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138626375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Measuring the educational gradient of period fertility in 28 European countries: A new approach based on parity-specific fertility estimates 测量 28 个欧洲国家的周期生育率教育梯度：基于特定奇数生育率估算的新方法
IF 2.1 3区 社会学
Demographic Research Pub Date : 2023-11-28 DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.34
Angela Greulich, Laurent Toulemon
{"title":"Measuring the educational gradient of period fertility in 28 European countries: A new approach based on parity-specific fertility estimates","authors":"Angela Greulich, Laurent Toulemon","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.34","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.34","url":null,"abstract":"Measures of fertility by level of female education are currently only available for cohorts who have already completed childbearing age. In this article, we provide more timely measures of the educational gradient of fertility for Europe. To measure period fertility by education for the whole set of European countries, we mobilize data from the European Union’s Survey of Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC). A semi-retrospective approach serves to observe parity-specific fertility behavior of cohorts that are currently at childbearing age, while at the same time recording the educational level correctly. Bayesian statistics allow obtaining credible intervals for the age, education-and parity specific birth probabilities for each country. These birth probabilities are then combined into a multi-state life table to obtain parity-specific and total birth intensities by education. A post-stratification of birth probabilities leads us to be consistent with national fertility estimates. We reveal if there are significant differences between education groups in fertility within each European country, in how far these differentials vary between European countries and if heterogeneity in period fertility behavior is larger among the higher or the lower educated across Europe. We also show for which parity the heterogeneity between education groups is the largest. This study is based on data from Eurostat, EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions [2011,2012,2013]. The responsibility for all conclusions drawn from the data lies entirely with the authors.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139223066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Point estimation of certain measures in organizational demography using variable-r methods 用变量-r 方法对组织人口学中的某些测量方法进行点估算
IF 2.1 3区 社会学
Demographic Research Pub Date : 2023-11-16 DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.33
Michael Lachanski
{"title":"Point estimation of certain measures in organizational demography using variable-r methods","authors":"Michael Lachanski","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.33","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.33","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139270345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The COVID-19 pandemic and fertility responses: TFR simulation analysis using parity progressions in South Korea COVID-19大流行和生育率应对:韩国使用均等级数的TFR模拟分析
3区 社会学
Demographic Research Pub Date : 2023-11-15 DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.32
Seulki Choi, Da eun Kwan Kwan, Bongoh Kye
{"title":"The COVID-19 pandemic and fertility responses: TFR simulation analysis using parity progressions in South Korea","authors":"Seulki Choi, Da eun Kwan Kwan, Bongoh Kye","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.32","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.32","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic has had a notable impact on marriage and fertility intentions. Existing research has found that the impact of the pandemic on childbearing intentions and outcomes has varied across countries. Yet it remains unclear what the post-COVID-19 fertility rate would be if the changes in childbearing intentions observed during the pandemic translated into corresponding behavioral changes.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"3 7","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136228307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Bayesian model for the reconstruction of education- and age-specific fertility rates: An application to African and Latin American countries 重建特定教育和年龄生育率的贝叶斯模型:在非洲和拉丁美洲国家的应用
3区 社会学
Demographic Research Pub Date : 2023-11-10 DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.31
Afua Durowaa-Boateng, Dilek Yildiz, Anne Goujon
{"title":"A Bayesian model for the reconstruction of education- and age-specific fertility rates: An application to African and Latin American countries","authors":"Afua Durowaa-Boateng, Dilek Yildiz, Anne Goujon","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.31","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.31","url":null,"abstract":"Consistent and reliable time series of education-and age-specific fertility rates for the past are difficult to obtain in developing coun tries, although they are needed to evaluate the impact of women’s education on fertility along periods and cohorts. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian framework to reconstruct age-specific fertility rates by level of education using prior information from the birth history module of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the UN World Population Prospects. In our case study regions, we reconstruct age-and education-specific fertility rates which are consistent with the UN age specific fertility rates by four levels of education for 50 African and Latin American countries from 1970 to 2020 in five-year steps. Our results show that the Bayesian approach allows for estimating reliable education-and age-specific fertility rates using multiple rounds of the DHS surveys. The time series obtained confirm the main findings of the literature on fertility trends, and age and education specific differentials.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"60 20","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135091926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Attitudes toward work and parenthood following family-building transitions in Sweden: Identifying differences by gender and education 瑞典家庭建设转型后对工作和为人父母的态度:识别性别和教育的差异
3区 社会学
Demographic Research Pub Date : 2023-11-09 DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.30
Eva Bernhardt, Frances Goldscheider, Malgorzata Switek
{"title":"Attitudes toward work and parenthood following family-building transitions in Sweden: Identifying differences by gender and education","authors":"Eva Bernhardt, Frances Goldscheider, Malgorzata Switek","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.30","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.30","url":null,"abstract":"OBJECTIVES This paper examines how family-building transitions (union formation and first birth) affect the attitudes of Swedes toward work and parenthood. The literature finds that these life course transitions have a traditionalizing effect on gender roles. Is this also the case in Sweden, one of the most gender-equal countries in the world? METHODS Our study uses the longitudinal Young Adult Panel Study database. We run first-difference OLS regressions on the relationship between family-building transitions and work and parenthood attitudes, distinguishing men from women, and those with more education from those with less.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" 24","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135192396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ultra-Orthodox fertility and marriage in the United States: Evidence from the American Community Survey 美国极端正统的生育和婚姻:来自美国社区调查的证据
3区 社会学
Demographic Research Pub Date : 2023-11-08 DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.29
Lyman Stone
{"title":"Ultra-Orthodox fertility and marriage in the United States: Evidence from the American Community Survey","authors":"Lyman Stone","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.29","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.29","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Amid low fertility rates in the industrialized world, some subpopulations have maintained high fertility rates. However, it has often been difficult to study these populations due to limitations in extant data sources. OBJECTIVE This paper will demonstrate a method of measuring key demographic indicators for Ultra-Orthodox Jews using demographic and language variables in the American Community Survey (ACS).","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" 49","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135340730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
首页 上一页 下一页 尾页
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整，为了账户安全，请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
相关产品
×
本文献相关产品
联系我们：info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务，方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号：604180095
Book学术官方微信
小红书