Demographic Research最新文献

{"title":"The recent decline in women’s fertility intentions in Canada: The shift in the intention schedule and the puzzle for family policy","authors":"Benoît Laplante,Julie Blouin","doi":"10.4054/demres.2026.55.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2026.55.12","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"11 1","pages":"371-412"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148901910","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Alternative estimates of the centenarian population in Argentina for census years 2001, 2010, and 2022","authors":"Matias Battocchio,Carlos Grushka","doi":"10.4054/demres.2026.55.11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2026.55.11","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"76 1","pages":"357-370"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148901911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Financial strain among Mexican American adult child caregivers of the oldest old","authors":"Anna Bokun,Jacqueline L. Angel,Flavia Cristina Drumond Andrade,Sunshine Rote,Philip Cantu","doi":"10.4054/demres.2026.55.10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2026.55.10","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"374 1","pages":"325-356"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148901913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating centenarians in Mexico: Trends, geographic distribution, and data quality challenges","authors":"Elder Lara-Castaneda,Victor Garcia-Guerrero","doi":"10.4054/demres.2026.55.9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2026.55.9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"6 1","pages":"307-324"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148901914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"COVID-19 emergency cash transfer and pregnancy in Brazil.","authors":"Alexandre Gori Maia, Leticia Junqueira Marteleto, Luiz Gustavo Sereno, Sneha Kumar, Molly Dondero","doi":"10.4054/DemRes.2026.54.17","DOIUrl":"10.4054/DemRes.2026.54.17","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Governmental financial assistance programs were widely adopted during COVID-19, but their impacts on women's reproductive behavior remain unknown.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>This paper evaluates how a key social policy instrument implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic - emergency aid - impacted the probability of pregnancy among young women. We also examine whether the use of effective contraceptive methods helps explain the heterogeneous effects observed across socioeconomic groups.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We draw on unique population-based longitudinal data from 2020 and 2021 tracking the reproductive lives of women aged 18-34 in Pernambuco, Brazil, to analyze how emergency aid targeted at vulnerable households impacted pregnancy. We generate estimates emphasizing causal relationships by controlling for the non-random allocation of aid using a quasi-experimental strategy, the inverse probability weighting regression adjustment.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Results highlight a reduction in the probability of pregnancy among women receiving emergency aid during the pandemic. The negative impact was more pronounced among the least educated and youngest women and those who initially intended larger families. We also found positive effects of emergency aid on contraception use among these socioeconomic groups.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>One possible explanation is that the emergency financial assistance helped women weather disruptions in public health services and ensured more consistent use of effective contraception, thereby, at least temporarily, helping women avoid pregnancy during a period of heightened socioeconomic uncertainties. Because those initially intending larger families and those least educated are among the poorer groups of women, the effects of the aid are stronger for these groups and for younger women, who have a larger reproductive window to meet their fertility preferences, which affords them the possibility of pregnancy in less uncertain times.</p><p><strong>Contribution: </strong>Combined, findings build on a broader literature on the impact of cash transfers on fertility outcomes by highlighting how these processes have played out at the height of a massive public health crisis.</p>","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"54 ","pages":"521-558"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13215707/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148057710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using sequence analysis to visualize exposure to pregnancy in the postpartum period.","authors":"Dana Sarnak, Linnea Zimmerman, Wenxuan Huang, Alison Gemmill","doi":"10.4054/demres.2025.53.1","DOIUrl":"10.4054/demres.2025.53.1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Exposure to pregnancy during the postpartum period is shaped by biological and behavioral determinants, such as resumption of sexual activity, return of menses, and contraceptive use dynamics.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>We implement sequence and cluster analyses to generate new insights about exposure to pregnancy during the postpartum period using unique longitudinal data in a low-resource setting.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used population-based data from a sample of 1,935 Ethiopian women who provided reports on factors influencing exposure to pregnancy in the year following childbirth. We used sequence and cluster analyses to characterize patterns of women's reproductive behaviors during the postpartum period.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We identified five postpartum trajectories of exposure to pregnancy: (1) no sex; (2) family-planning adopters, no menses; (3) family-planning adopters, return of menses; (4) sex, no menses, no family planning; and (5) sex, menses, no family planning. The 'sex, no menses, no family planning' cluster (50% of the sample) was characterized by resumption of sexual activity around three months postpartum, amenorrhea, and no contraceptive adoption. Women in the two 'family-planning adopters' clusters (39%) resumed sexual activity and adopted contraception around three months postpartum but differ by return of menses. The 'no sex' cluster (5%) was characterized by no sexual activity, contraceptive use, or menses.</p><p><strong>Contribution: </strong>Sequence analysis offers new insights into a critical reproductive window by emphasizing the dynamic biological and behavioral states that influence distinct patterns of postpartum exposure to pregnancy. Establishing longitudinal trajectories of exposure to pregnancy has research and programmatic implications that include a more holistic understanding of postpartum fecundity and measuring unmet need for postpartum family planning.</p>","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"53 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12810866/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145999354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Amish fertility in the United States: Comparative evidence from the American Community Survey and Amish population registries.","authors":"Lyman Stone, Cory Anderson, Stephanie Thiehoff","doi":"10.4054/demres.2025.52.26","DOIUrl":"10.4054/demres.2025.52.26","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Quantitative studies of Amish population dynamics have been methodologically constrained by difficulties identifying Amish in national surveys. If Amish could be reliably identified in, for example, the American Community Survey (ACS), researchers could leverage its rich variables to document both demographic outcomes and their social predictors.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>Cross-validate two methods for studying Amish populations by comparing fertility measures in the ACS with the Cross-sectional Amish Population and Environment Database-2010s (CAPED-2010s), a large administrative record database of North American Amish.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We identify potential Amish ACS respondents through combinations of the attributes (1) Pennsylvania Dutch language use, (2) absence of household telephone, and (3) farming. We then calculate fertility measures derived from both the CAPED data and ACS data samples (2000-2021). This comparative method allows us to assess whether the two samples produce demographic comparable estimates.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Both methods produce remarkably consistent fertility statistics, including total fertility rates (just over six children), age-specific fertility rates (highest ages 20-29), and non-marital fertility (very low).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The strong agreement between ACS- and CAPED-2010s-derived demographic estimates validates both approaches for studying Amish populations.</p><p><strong>Contribution: </strong>The ACS's rich social variables complement CAPED-2010s' comprehensive demographic coverage, demonstrating the credibility of two separate large databases for studies of the Amish.</p>","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"52 ","pages":"869-886"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12337822/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144822946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Jointly Estimating Subnational Mortality for Multiple Populations.","authors":"Ameer Dharamshi, Monica Alexander, Celeste Winant, Magali Barbieri","doi":"10.4054/demres.2025.52.3","DOIUrl":"10.4054/demres.2025.52.3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Understanding patterns in mortality across subpopulations is essential for local health policy decision making. One of the key challenges of subnational mortality rate estimation is the presence of small populations and zero or near zero death counts. When studying differences between subpopulations, this challenge is compounded as the small populations are further divided along socioeconomic or demographic lines.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>We aim to develop a model to estimate subnational age-specific mortality rates that accounts for the dependencies in mortality experiences across subpopulations.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We develop a Bayesian hierarchical principal components based model that models correlations across subpopulations.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We test this approach in a simulation study and also use the model to estimate age- and sex-specific mortality rates for counties in the United States. The model performs well in validation exercises and the US estimates suggest substantial variation in mortality trends over time across geographic lines.</p>","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"52 ","pages":"71-110"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13082840/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147700334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Excess mortality associated with HIV: Survey estimates from the PHIA project.","authors":"Shannon M Farley, Giles Reid, Kay Yuengling, Connor Wright, Vesper H Chisumpa, George Bello, James M Juma, Abigail R Greenleaf, Stephen McCracken, Paul Stupp, Stéphane Helleringer, Jessica Justman","doi":"10.4054/demres.2024.51.38","DOIUrl":"10.4054/demres.2024.51.38","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Incomplete vital statistics systems in resource-limited countries hinder accurate HIV epidemic assessments. Population-based survey data combined with HIV infection biomarkers may partially address this gap, providing excess mortality estimates in households where people living with HIV (PLWH) reside.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>Examine household-level excess HIV mortality in households with PLWH using population-based survey data, including mortality reported by heads of households, and HIV biomarkers.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We compared mortality between households with and without PLWH using publicly available data from 11 Population-based HIV Impact Assessments conducted between 2015 and 2019 in Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Eswatini, Kenya, Malawi, Namibia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Eligible, consenting household members provided blood for HIV testing. Household-level regression models estimated deaths per 1,000 person-years (PY) for the three-year period before the survey; death rate ratios were calculated. Quasi-Poisson distribution accounted for household death over-dispersion.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Country-specific deaths rates per 1,000 PY were significantly higher among rural versus urban households for five countries. For example, in Cameroon, the rates were 9.3 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.7-9.9) versus 6.5 (95% CI: 5.9-7.1). In six countries, death rates were significantly higher (1.3-1.7-fold) among households with PLWH versus those without. Death rate ratios were significantly higher among rural (1.4-1.8-fold) and urban households (1.6-2.3-fold) with PLWH versus those without in four and three countries, respectively.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>General population household survey findings in multiple countries in Africa indicate that households where PLWH resided experienced excess mortality relative to other households.</p><p><strong>Contribution: </strong>The novel approach we use to describe HIV-related household-level mortality offers an additional method to measure progress toward zero AIDS-related deaths.</p>","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"51 2","pages":"1183-1200"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12087677/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144102934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Children under five in polygynous households in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2000 to 2020.","authors":"Emily Treleaven, Emma Banchoff","doi":"10.4054/demres.2024.51.32","DOIUrl":"10.4054/demres.2024.51.32","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Cross-sectional analyses have identified polygyny as a prevalent family form across sub-Saharan Africa, though it has been declining over time in most countries. Yet, how the prevalence of young children in polygynous households has changed over time concurrent to changes in other demographic indicators is not well understood. Trends in polygynous living arrangements and selection into these households may have consequences for related disparities in health and mortality over time.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>We describe the prevalence of young children residing in polygynous households over a twenty-year period of significant social and demographic change.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We analyze nationally representative household survey data from 83 Demographic and Health Surveys from 27 sub-Saharan African countries collected between 2000 and 2020. Among children under five years of age, we estimate the changing prevalence over time of residing in a polygynous household and compare to the prevalence of women of reproductive age in polygynous unions. We then disaggregate this change by maternal marital status and wife rank.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>There is substantial variation in the proportions of young children in polygynous households across countries in the sample, though the prevalence has declined in almost all countries over time. Children have experienced a more rapid decline in almost all countries than women of reproductive age in polygynous unions. Over time, children in West Africa are shifting towards monogamous households, while children in Central and Southern Africa are becoming more likely to have a mother who is divorced, widowed, or never married.</p><p><strong>Contribution: </strong>This paper provides new estimates of the characteristics and trends over time of young children residing in polygynous households across sub-Saharan Africa.</p>","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"51 ","pages":"999-1016"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13218750/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148139469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}