Andreas Bergh, Christian Bjørnskov, Justin T. Callais
{"title":"Economic globalization and income shares","authors":"Andreas Bergh, Christian Bjørnskov, Justin T. Callais","doi":"10.1016/j.jce.2026.02.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jce.2026.02.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Low barriers to trade and access to international capital markets have long been argued to improve economic conditions in a country. However, there is less consensus on the impact of economic globalization on the distribution of those gains across society. There are several possible explanations for the conflicting findings in the existing literature, perhaps most notably endogeneity issues that plague the cross-country studies. To alleviate this, we utilize matching methods. Instead of using Gini coefficients, as much of the previous literature, we examine large increases in economic globalization’s impact on 5-year income growth in each quintile of the income distribution as well as top 1 and 5 percent. We find no evidence that income growth for the middle classes in OECD countries is hurt by economic globalization; if anything, some results indicate statistically positive effects. Most estimates, however, are positive but statistically and economically insignificant.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48183,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Comparative Economics","volume":"54 3","pages":"Pages 925-935"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148940379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Public events boost nationalist identity","authors":"Manu Singh Burson, Jacob N. Shapiro","doi":"10.1016/j.jce.2026.03.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jce.2026.03.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using unique data from Croatian supermarkets, we show that nationalist music events shape everyday consumption choices. First, we establish a link between buying goods labeled as ‘Croatian Quality’ or ‘Authentic Croatian’ and voting for nationalist parties. By tracking individuals through loyalty card purchases, we show that attending a nationalist concert leads to an estimated 2.7 percentage-point increase in the share of grocery spending on these nationally branded goods, a 13% increase over the mean. There is no similar impact of attending non-nationalist concerts and the results are not driven by supply or price shifts at concert locations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48183,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Comparative Economics","volume":"54 3","pages":"Pages 656-688"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148949413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"More than a degree: China’s college expansion and the marriage market","authors":"Ming Fang, Sai Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.jce.2026.03.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jce.2026.03.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Higher education in China has expanded radically since 1999. Exploiting variations across cohorts and regions , our analysis shows that the expansion increased the marriage probability of college-educated women and men. The expansion also increased assortative matching by education and reduced the marriage age gap. Both empirical and theoretical analyses suggest that these effects are driven by reductions in search frictions within the local marriage market created by colleges and facilitated by the expansion. Our findings suggest the potential role of higher education institutions in shaping the marriage market by facilitating the search and matching process.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48183,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Comparative Economics","volume":"54 3","pages":"Pages 709-731"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148961689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Innovation under censorship: Effects on cultural production in early modern England","authors":"Peter Grajzl, Peter Murrell","doi":"10.1016/j.jce.2026.02.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jce.2026.02.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The effects of print censorship on early modern England's cultural production have yet to be examined quantitatively. Doing so requires distilling dispersed qualitative information into numerical data. An annual index of print censorship is constructed by eliciting the historical knowledge encoded in a large language model (LLM) primed with evidence from secondary sources. Application of a machine-learning (ML) algorithm to a major corpus provides document-level measures of cultural innovativeness (quality) and volume (quantity). Pre-existing topic-model estimates apportion each document among distinct cultural themes—three affected by censorship and five unaffected. This yields a yearly theme-level panel for 1525–1700. Local projections estimate censorship's dynamic effects. Counterintuitively, censorship increases innovativeness in censorship-affected themes relative to non-affected themes. Censorship has a temporary chilling effect on the quantity of cultural production though output recovers within a decade. Results are robust to an instrumental-variable approach addressing the endogeneity of censorship. Findings are unchanged when the censorship index is constructed using three alternative LLMs. Leveraging LLMs and ML to measure hard-to-quantify phenomena, such as censorship and cultural production, illuminates the drivers of cultural evolution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48183,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Comparative Economics","volume":"54 3","pages":"Pages 904-924"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148940377","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Announcing new JCE editors and new journal subtitle, Journal of Comparative Economics: Political Economy","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jce.2026.08.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jce.2026.08.003","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48183,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Comparative Economics","volume":"54 3","pages":"Page 655"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148949412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Dynamic returns to political tenure","authors":"Bas Machielsen","doi":"10.1016/j.jce.2026.03.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jce.2026.03.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Economists frequently assert that politicians derive financial returns from a political career, but these returns can be obscured by the varying duration of political careers. In this study, I estimate the financial returns associated with successive mandates in the Lower House, capitalizing on the repetitive treatment assignment through close elections in the Netherlands from 1848–1917. Employing a dynamic regression discontinuity framework, I establish that the financial benefits accruing to politicians are due to the first two periods of political tenure, but no substantial returns emerge during the more advanced career stages. These findings emphasize that politicians elected for a first and second term exhibit significantly higher end-of-life wealth than their losing counterparts, equivalent to several years’ salaries. I also explore various potential mechanisms, providing evidence in favor of career-based explanations and against in-office returns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48183,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Comparative Economics","volume":"54 3","pages":"Pages 732-748"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148961690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Mental health spillovers and human capital development: Evidence from middle schools in China","authors":"Jin Feng, Hong Song, Qing Zhang, Yuan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jce.2026.03.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jce.2026.03.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While adolescent mental health is crucial to human capital formation, less is known about whether mental-health risks generate externalities within educational social networks. This study utilizes large-scale survey data from Chinese middle schools and exploits institutional random assignment of students to classes to explore how peer environments shape students’ mental well-being, cognitive ability, and academic performance. We measure peer exposure using leave-one-out classroom prevalence of adverse home environments, which proxies peers’ latent mental-health risk. Our results demonstrate that greater exposure to peers facing elevated mental-health risk significantly impedes adolescents’ human capital development, including worsened mental well-being, as well as reduced cognitive ability and academic performance. These adverse effects are particularly pronounced among disadvantaged students and those with worse baseline well-being or academic performance, implying that adverse peer environments can amplify existing inequalities in human capital accumulation. Mechanism analysis reveals that deteriorated friendship quality and class environment, reduced study efforts and motivation, and perceived worsening teacher-student relationships are key mechanisms, whereas teachers’ self-reported instructional practices show limited adjustment. Overall, the findings suggest that school-based psychosocial supports may yield social returns beyond treated students by improving classroom emotional climate and reducing peer spillovers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48183,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Comparative Economics","volume":"54 3","pages":"Pages 689-708"},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148961688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The long-term impact of industrialization campaigns on human capital accumulation: Evidence from the “Construction of Third Front” in China","authors":"Guanghua Fang , Yinhe Liang , Fan Qin","doi":"10.1016/j.jce.2026.01.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jce.2026.01.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the early 1960s, China launched the “Construction of Third Front” (TF) industrialization campaign for national defense considerations, which significantly spurred manufacturing growth in the underdeveloped hinterland. Exploiting variation in the exposure to the TF across prefectures and cohorts, we find that the TF significantly increased human capital accumulation in the long term. These effects were plausibly driven by improved access to education and healthcare, an income effect, and the dominance of the positive effect of educational returns over the negative impact of the opportunity cost. Further analysis reveals that children with greater exposure to the TF experienced better labor market outcomes, delayed fertility, and smaller family sizes in adulthood.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48183,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Comparative Economics","volume":"54 2","pages":"Pages 467-483"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148202531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Conditional persistence? Historical disease exposure and government response to COVID-19","authors":"Annika Lindskog, Ola Olsson","doi":"10.1016/j.jce.2026.01.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jce.2026.01.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Drawing on the literature on cultural adaptations to historical disease exposure, we investigate differences in government containment policies during the COVID-19 pandemic. We hypothesize that a higher historical exposure to disease resulted in a stronger government response to recent COVID deaths, particularly during the first year of the pandemic characterized by fundamental uncertainty. Our empirical analysis confirms this hypothesis, both for differences in government responses to disease dynamics between countries and for differences in state-level containment policies within the United States. Our results suggest that the impact of historical health legacies on contemporary policy may be conditional on the character of the public health risk at hand. Deep cultural norms, determined by historical experiences, may play a minor role most of the time but are activated in times of fundamental uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48183,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Comparative Economics","volume":"54 2","pages":"Pages 635-654"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148202519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does pollution affect exports? Evidence from China","authors":"Jie Bai , Larry D. Qiu , Junji Xiao","doi":"10.1016/j.jce.2026.02.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jce.2026.02.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the effects and mechanisms of air pollution on firm exports using Chinese firm–product data (2000–2007) and thermal inversion as an instrumental variable. We find that a 1% increase in PM<sub>2.5</sub> reduces export values by 0.65%, with the 28% pollution increase over our sample period reducing overall exports by 18.30%. We identify two channels through which pollution affects exports: Pollution reduces labor productivity (0.83% decrease per 1% increase in PM<sub>2.5</sub>) and trigger environmental regulations (lowering exports by 20%–25% based on spatial regression discontinuity estimates). The effects are stronger for low-productivity firms and labor-intensive industries. Our results highlight significant economic costs of air pollution as it reduces international trade.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48183,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Comparative Economics","volume":"54 2","pages":"Pages 598-620"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148202529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}