{"title":"Inferring the value of short‐staffed public sector jobs: Federal budgets and military fighter pilots","authors":"Scott Farrow, Peter B. Doeringer","doi":"10.1002/pam.70060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70060","url":null,"abstract":"This study uses a novel framework based on the “negotiated staffing equilibrium” between governmental agencies and governing bodies to estimate the net benefits of increasing employment in public sector occupations that experience chronic labor shortages. The marginal values of these labor inputs, as perceived by the parties during budget negotiations, are inferred from information on the cost and productivity of labor in short supply compared to those values at the funded equilibrium employment level. If labor is not in short supply, then the net marginal benefits are either zero or negative. This model can be parameterized by elasticities and informed by principles of derived demand. The example of U.S. Air Force fighter pilots is used to illustrate the methodology because this occupation has frequently been understaffed, and the benefits of military staffing have generally been assumed to be intractable to value. The estimates here of the annual marginal net benefit of these fighter pilots is about $1.02 million, based on pilot shortages as of 2017. Eliminating that shortage would yield $458 million in additional net benefits. The results from estimating this model can inform labor allocations, budget debates and provide input values for decision‐making tools such as benefit‐cost analyses.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145282673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"44th Year Data","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/pam.70051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70051","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"44 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145122648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"INTRODUCTION TO THE RESEARCH ARTICLES","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/pam.70037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70037","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"44 4","pages":"1147-1152"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145122616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Measuring the effects of Obergefell v. Hodges: Revisiting same‐sex marriage legalization and mortgage demand","authors":"Nir Eilam, Hasan Shahid","doi":"10.1002/pam.70058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70058","url":null,"abstract":"The U.S. Supreme Court's 2015 ruling in <jats:italic>Obergefell v. Hodges</jats:italic> made same‐sex marriage legal in all states. We estimate the effect of this landmark ruling on the mortgage demand of same‐sex couples. Using data on the near universe of mortgage applications, we employ a difference‐in‐differences estimation strategy that compares the mortgage demand from same‐sex and different‐sex couples, before and after the ruling. We find that the ruling increased the mortgage demand from same‐sex couples relative to different‐sex couples by 12% in states where same‐sex marriage was previously unavailable. Interestingly, we also estimate a 15% increase in the mortgage demand of same‐sex couples in states that had already legalized same‐sex marriage prior to the ruling. This suggests that the federal Supreme Court ruling brought greater certainty to same‐sex couples, even in states where same‐sex marriage was already legal. Additionally, we find that the effects were significantly larger for same‐sex female couples compared to same‐sex male couples, consistent with prior literature documenting higher marriage take‐up among women in same‐sex relationships. Our results emphasize the importance of federal Supreme Court rulings over and above similar state‐level legislation in shaping outcomes of vulnerable populations.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"195 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145116410","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Agrarian Elites and Democracy in Latin America by Belén FernándezMilmanda. Cambridge University Press, 2025, 257 pp., $41.99 (paperback).","authors":"Ana Thais Dias Safe Carneiro","doi":"10.1002/pam.70048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70048","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144927830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Toshio Ferrazares, Joseph J. Sabia, D. Mark Anderson
{"title":"Have U.S. gun buyback programs misfired?","authors":"Toshio Ferrazares, Joseph J. Sabia, D. Mark Anderson","doi":"10.1002/pam.70045","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.70045","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Gun buyback programs (GBPs), which use public funds to purchase civilians' privately-owned firearms, aim to reduce gun violence. However, next to nothing is known about their effects on firearm-related crime or deaths. Using data from the National Incident Based Reporting System, we find no evidence that GBPs reduce gun crime. Given our estimated null findings, with 95% confidence, we can rule out decreases in firearm-related crime of greater than 1.2% during the year following a buyback. Using data from the National Vital Statistics System, we also find no evidence that GBPs reduce suicides or homicides where a firearm was involved. These results call into question the efficacy of city gun buyback programs in their current form.</p>","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"44 4","pages":"1211-1249"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144924420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The impact of granting undocumented immigrants driver's licenses on fatal crashes","authors":"Ruinan Zhao","doi":"10.1002/pam.70053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70053","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the effect of granting undocumented immigrants driver's licenses on fatal crashes. Using county‐level crash data from the Fatality and Injury Reporting System Tool, I leverage the quasi‐randomness of the timing of the driver's license reforms adoption across states to identify the causal effect of driver's license reforms. My findings show that granting undocumented immigrants driver's licenses increases overall fatal crashes by nearly 5%, equivalent to 0.46 more fatal crashes in a county per year. The effect is stronger in states with a higher population of undocumented immigrants. By investigating the mechanism through which the policy impact is likely to occur, I show that undocumented immigrants may be more likely to engage in risky driving behavior once they obtain driver's licenses. Several robustness checks and placebo tests support my main findings.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144927831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Deadly Rise of Anti‐Science: A Scientist's Warning by Peter J.Hotez. Johns Hopkins University Press, 2023, 161 pp., $24.95 (hardcover).","authors":"MaryBrooke U. Burval","doi":"10.1002/pam.70057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70057","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144927833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The effect of compliance assistance on pollution discharges and violations of environmental regulations","authors":"Paul J. Ferraro, Jay P. Shimshack","doi":"10.1002/pam.70056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70056","url":null,"abstract":"Researchers and policymakers assert competing behavioral models of polluters. One model portrays polluters as best approximated by the perfectly informed, rational actor from economics textbooks. Another model portrays polluters, particularly small and medium facilities, as imperfectly informed, cognitively bounded, pro‐social actors. If this second model is more accurate, environmental programs that offer low‐cost technical assistance may be especially effective in promoting regulatory compliance. Yet the empirical evidence for the effectiveness of such compliance assistance is scant. In a pre‐registered analysis using panel data research designs, we exploit idiosyncratic program roll‐out to estimate the effects of a compliance assistance program that was delivered to hundreds of Ohio water polluters. Although the program was initially deemed a success by federal and state environmental protection agencies, we estimate that, if the program had any effect on polluter behaviors, those effects were small. In our preferred specification, we estimate a precise zero effect of compliance assistance on environmental compliance and pollution. The lack of evidence for behavioral impacts from compliance assistance does not imply such programs cannot be effective, but it does underscore the need for more deliberate evaluation designs when state and federal agencies roll out their compliance assistance interventions.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144924453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Puzzling over declining academic achievement","authors":"Jim Wyckoff","doi":"10.1002/pam.70052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70052","url":null,"abstract":"Many are concerned about the large decline in K–12 student achievement since 2019. And rightly so, given what it signals about student learning and later life outcomes. Less noted is the pre‐pandemic sustained decline in student achievement growth that followed more than 30 years of increases. We examine the nature of achievement decline as measured by national and state NAEP scores. Our analysis suggests that pre‐pandemic achievement declines are large, began earlier than commonly thought, and vary substantially among states. Importantly, a large portion of the pandemic learning losses have their roots well before 2020 and are likely not attributable to the pandemic per se. An analysis of evidence for commonly suggested causes of learning loss suggests that achievement declines likely result from several influences that vary across states and over time. Regaining momentum on academic outcomes will likely require many changes. The devolution of leadership for education policy to states offers an important opportunity for state leaders to embrace this challenge.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"139 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144910688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}