Journal of Policy Analysis and Management最新文献

{"title":"Autocracy, Inc.: The Dictators Who Want to Run the World by AnneApplebaum. Random House, 2024, 272 pp., $29 (paperback).","authors":"Guzel Garifullina","doi":"10.1002/pam.70054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70054","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144911068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Disinformation, Misinformation, and Democracy: Legal Approaches in Comparative Context by Ronald J.Krotosynsky Jr., AdrásKoltay, and CharlotteGarden. Cambridge University Press, 2024, 430 pp., $140.00 (hardcover).","authors":"Zoe Tzanis, Samuel Woolley","doi":"10.1002/pam.70055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70055","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Why are preschool programs becoming less effective?","authors":"Anamarie A. Whitaker, Margaret Burchinal, Jade M. Jenkins, Drew H. Bailey, Tyler W. Watts, Greg J. Duncan, Emma R. Hart, Ellen Peisner‐Feinberg","doi":"10.1002/pam.70031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70031","url":null,"abstract":"Public preschool programs are heralded as an effective policy tool for promoting the development and lifelong well‐being of children from low‐income families. Recent preschool evaluations report divergent findings that are consistently weaker than those of famous demonstration programs implemented in the mid‐20th century. We provide potential explanations for these weaker effects, the most compelling of which focuses on improvements in the early childhood conditions of children not enrolling in public programs. We argue that other explanations, such as subsequent low‐quality schooling experiences, do not convincingly account for weakening program effectiveness. We do not contest whether governments should invest in effective care for young children. Rather, we focus on the current state of the evaluation evidence for programs at scale. We argue the field must take seriously the disappointing impacts of modern programs on child outcomes and strive to understand how to boost program effectiveness through rigorous, longitudinal research.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144906046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The intersection of prenatal substance exposure and child protection: Evidence from Pennsylvania","authors":"Sarah Font, Christian M. Connell, Ezra G. Goldstein, Dylan Jones","doi":"10.1002/pam.70049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70049","url":null,"abstract":"Current U.S. law mandates notification of substance‐affected infants to state child welfare systems (CWS) for the purpose of assessment and service connections. Yet, CWS appears to identify a small share of substance‐affected infants at birth, potentially reflecting inconsistent diagnosis of prenatal substance exposure (PSE) and emerging efforts to limit toxicology testing. This study uses linked maternal and child administrative records (2015 to 2021) for Pennsylvania Medicaid‐covered births with CWS cases by age 3 (<jats:italic>N</jats:italic> = 31,913) to investigate PSE prevalence. Using indicators from CWS records and both child and maternal Medicaid claims, we estimate that 45% of children involved with CWS by age 3 experienced PSE, as well as 59% of children entering foster care. Nearly half of these children were not involved with CWS at birth and a majority did not receive a medical diagnosis of PSE. Yet, extrapolated estimates suggest that 70% of Medicaid‐covered children with a PSE indicator will experience a CWS case by age 3. Absent high uptake of robust supportive interventions from other systems or agencies, avoiding notification of PSE at birth may not reduce long‐term involvement with CWS among children with PSE.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Science Under Siege: How to Fight the Five Most Powerful Forces That Threaten Our World by Michael E.Mann and Peter J.Hotez. PublicAffairs, 2025, 368 pp., $32 (hardcover).","authors":"Hong Hui Choi","doi":"10.1002/pam.70047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70047","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"70 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The federal debt: Costly, but not catastrophic","authors":"Louise Sheiner","doi":"10.1002/pam.70043","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.70043","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"44 4","pages":"1484-1490"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Why debt matters","authors":"Kent Smetters","doi":"10.1002/pam.70040","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.70040","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Your retirement portfolio likely holds some bonds. In the hypothetical absence of federal government debt, those bonds would be corporate debt invested in capital ventures that yield future returns. You receive a return because an actual capital investment is made into the economy. That investment increases capital per worker and wages while lowering borrowing costs for a home mortgage.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In reality, of course, 40% of your bond allocation likely holds various denominations of U.S. government debt. Naturally, those assets represent actual savings from &lt;i&gt;your&lt;/i&gt; perspective. However, most government debt is used for spending programs or tax cuts that benefit current and past generations, rather than investing in long-term public assets like early childhood education or infrastructure. You earn a return simply because the U.S. Treasury must offer it to compete with alternative investments. So, most government debt redirects savings from actual investments for the future to support past and current consumption. Government debt “crowds out” private investment.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;But crowding out is just one problem. As debt grows, as it is projected to do for the United States, bond markets eventually lose faith in the ability of the government to make full payments in real terms. Such “bank runs” are infrequent but violent. They are fully rational and so they cannot be educated away or mitigated with financial regulation. Debt crises have brought down superpowers.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;It is tempting to immediately inquire about the exact empirical evidence—How much does debt crowd out private investment? What is the nation's fiscal capacity before a bank run emerges?—but it would make little sense without having a solid model for interpretation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Unfortunately, serious modeling of government debt on the economy is largely absent inside DC policy circles.1 But the tools have existed for a long time and are widely used in academics. Paul Samuelson (&lt;span&gt;1958&lt;/span&gt;) and Peter Diamond (&lt;span&gt;1965&lt;/span&gt;) introduced the lifecycle overlapping-generations (OLG) model that accommodates a wide range of government policies. The OLG model requires being explicit instead of using heavy discretion to map from policy to non-OLG model input. Welfare analysis is also rigorous.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Both “crowding out” and “bank runs” (fiscal limits) naturally emerge. OLG is the workhorse model of modern public finance and macroeconomics, so much so, that the top five general interest journals in economics expect papers to use this framework when analyzing the impact of fiscal policy on macroeconomic variables. OLG is as basic as the standard laws of thermodynamics in physics; debates happen only around the edges. But OLG has an “entry fee” due to the cost of learning public finance and computational methods. The richer the OLG model, the higher these costs. So, instead, DC policy circles largely use the simpler “neoclassical growth” model developed by Ramsey (&lt;span&gt;1928&lt;/span&gt;), even for longe","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"44 4","pages":"1491-1497"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/pam.70040","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating the likelihood of a U.S. debt crisis","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/pam.70035","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.70035","url":null,"abstract":"<p>On July 4th, 2025, just weeks before we finalized this issue of Point/Counterpoint, President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill into law. While estimates vary, most suggest provisions will result in more than a $3 trillion increase in the national debt. Aside from general concerns about shifting costs to future generations, some analysts worry about rising risks of a debt crisis—the potential for a loss of faith regarding the U.S. government's commitment to repayment abruptly destabilizing markets.</p><p>Louise Sheiner's and Kent Smetters's essays in this issue provide a very timely assessment of debt levels and associated risks. Their exchange provides a window into the policy and technical judgments that inform alternative estimates of the likely trajectory of U.S. national debt and its consequences. Sheiner's relative optimism rests not only on relatively lower debt levels estimated by, e.g., the Congressional Budget Office, but also on expectations regarding the time and capacity for policymakers to make adjustments to avoid a debt crisis. Smetters argues that higher estimates derived from alternative models are superior, and demonstrate that a debt crisis is a greater, and more imminent, threat. Their exchange highlights the complexity of the technical estimation issues—both the models used, and their specifications—as well as judgments regarding the broader context in which the resulting estimates must be evaluated.</p>","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"44 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/pam.70035","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/pam.70036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70036","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"44 4","pages":"1524-1527"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145122633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Why I am less worried about the debt than Kent Smetters is","authors":"Louise Sheiner","doi":"10.1002/pam.70042","DOIUrl":"10.1002/pam.70042","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"44 4","pages":"1498-1501"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144920981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}