Judgment and Decision Making最新文献_第4页

Hypothesized drivers of the bias blind spot—cognitive sophistication, introspection bias, and conversational processes 偏见盲点的假设驱动因素——认知复杂性、内省偏见和对话过程

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-11-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009475

D. Mandel, Robert N. Collins, A. C. Walker, Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Evan F. Risko

{"title":"Hypothesized drivers of the bias blind spot—cognitive sophistication,\u0000 introspection bias, and conversational processes","authors":"D. Mandel, Robert N. Collins, A. C. Walker, Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Evan F. Risko","doi":"10.1017/s1930297500009475","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500009475","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Individuals often assess themselves as being less susceptible to common\u0000 biases compared to others. This bias blind spot\u0000 (BBS) is thought to represent a metacognitive error. In this research, we\u0000 tested three explanations for the effect: The cognitive sophistication\u0000 hypothesis posits that individuals who display the BBS more strongly are\u0000 actually less biased than others. The introspection bias hypothesis posits\u0000 that the BBS occurs because people rely on introspection more when assessing\u0000 themselves compared to others. The conversational processes hypothesis\u0000 posits that the effect is largely a consequence of the pragmatic aspects of\u0000 the experimental situation rather than true metacognitive error. In two\u0000 experiments (N = 1057) examining 18\u0000 social/motivational and cognitive biases, there was strong evidence of the\u0000 BBS. Among the three hypotheses examined, the conversational processes\u0000 hypothesis attracted the greatest support, thus raising questions about the\u0000 extent to which the BBS is a metacognitive effect.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42902615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Do people believe that you can have too much money? The relationship between hypothetical lottery wins and expected happiness 人们认为你可以有太多的钱吗?假设彩票中奖与预期幸福之间的关系

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-11-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009402

T. Haesevoets, Kim Dierckx, A. Van Hiel

{"title":"Do people believe that you can have too much money? The relationship\u0000 between hypothetical lottery wins and expected happiness","authors":"T. Haesevoets, Kim Dierckx, A. Van Hiel","doi":"10.1017/s1930297500009402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500009402","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Do people think that there is such a thing as too much money? The\u0000 present research investigated this question in the context of hypothetical\u0000 lottery wins. By employing a mental simulation approach, we were able to\u0000 examine how people respond to increasing envisioned jackpot amounts, and\u0000 whether there are individual differences in people’s reactions. Across five\u0000 empirical studies (total N = 1,504), we consistently found that, overall,\u0000 the relationship between imagined lottery wins and expected happiness is\u0000 characterized by an inverted U-shaped curve, with expected happiness being\u0000 highest around an envisioned win of roughly 10 million pounds. Both lower\u0000 and higher envisioned wins reduced participants’ overall expected happiness.\u0000 In addition to this overall pattern, we identified three clusters of\u0000 participants who react differently to expected increases in wealth. These\u0000 clusters mainly differed in terms of how soon the top of the expected\u0000 happiness curve was reached, and if and when the curve started to drop.\u0000 Finally, we also found some interesting cluster differences in terms of\u0000 participants’ prosocial and proself motivations.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47131781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Waiting is painful: The impact of anticipated dread on negative discounting in the loss domain 等待是痛苦的：预期恐惧对损失领域负折扣的影响

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-11-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009451

Hong-Yue Sun, Jia-Tao Ma, Lei Zhou, Cheng-Ming Jiang, Shu Li

引用次数: 2

The prominence effect in health-care priority setting 在卫生保健重点确定中的突出效应

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-11-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009463

Emil Persson, Arvid Erlandsson, P. Slovic, D. Västfjäll, G. Tinghög

{"title":"The prominence effect in health-care priority setting","authors":"Emil Persson, Arvid Erlandsson, P. Slovic, D. Västfjäll, G. Tinghög","doi":"10.1017/s1930297500009463","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500009463","url":null,"abstract":"People often choose the option that is better on the most subjectively prominent attribute — the prominence effect. We studied the effect of prominence in health care priority setting and hypothesized that values related to health would trump values related to costs in treatment choices, even when individuals themselves evaluated different treatment options as equally good. We conducted pre-registered experiments with a diverse Swedish sample and a sample of international experts on priority setting in health care (n = 1348). Participants, acting in the role of policy makers, revealed their valuation for different medical treatments in hypothetical scenarios. Participants were systematically inconsistent between preferences expressed through evaluation in a matching task and preferences expressed through choice. In line with our hypothesis, a large proportion of participants (General population: 92%, Experts 84% of all choices) chose treatment options that were better on the health dimension (lower health risk) despite having previously expressed indifference between those options and others that were better on the cost dimension. Thus, we find strong evidence of a prominence effect in health-care priority setting. Our findings provide a psychological explanation for why opportunity costs (i.e., the value of choices not exercised) are neglected in health care priority setting.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45375031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Social preferences before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in China 中国新冠肺炎疫情发生前后的社会偏好

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-11-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009438

King King Li, Yingyi Hong, Bo Huang, Tony Tam

{"title":"Social preferences before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in\u0000 China","authors":"King King Li, Yingyi Hong, Bo Huang, Tony Tam","doi":"10.1017/s1930297500009438","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500009438","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This study compares Chinese people’s trust and trustworthiness, risk\u0000 attitude, and time preference before and after the onset of the COVID-19\u0000 pandemic in China. We compare the preferences of subjects in two online\u0000 experiments with samples drawn from 31 provinces across mainland China\u0000 before and after the onset of the pandemic. We test two competing hypotheses\u0000 regarding trust and trustworthiness. On the one hand, the outbreak as a\u0000 collective threat could enhance in-group cohesion and cooperation and thus\u0000 increase trust and trustworthiness. On the other hand, to the extent that\u0000 people expect their future income to decline, they may become more\u0000 self-protective and self-controlled, and thus less trusting and trustworthy\u0000 and more risk averse and patient. Comparing before and after the onset, we\u0000 found that the subjects increased in trustworthiness. After the onset, trust\u0000 and trustworthiness (and risk aversion and present bias too) were positively\u0000 correlated with the COVID-19 prevalence rate in the provinces. Subjects with\u0000 more pessimistic expectations about income change showed more risk aversion\u0000 and lower discount rates, supporting the speculation concerning\u0000 self-control.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44386612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Pretrial release judgments and decision fatigue 审前释放判决与判决疲劳

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-11-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009384

Ravi Shroff, Konstantinos Vamvourellis

{"title":"Pretrial release judgments and decision fatigue","authors":"Ravi Shroff, Konstantinos Vamvourellis","doi":"10.1017/s1930297500009384","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500009384","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Field studies in many domains have found evidence of decision fatigue, a\u0000 phenomenon describing how decision quality can be impaired by the act of\u0000 making previous decisions. Debate remains, however, over posited\u0000 psychological mechanisms underlying decision fatigue, and the size of\u0000 effects in high-stakes settings. We examine an extensive set of pretrial\u0000 arraignments in a large, urban court system to investigate how judicial\u0000 release and bail decisions are influenced by the time an arraignment occurs.\u0000 We find that release rates decline modestly in the hours before lunch and\u0000 before dinner, and these declines persist after statistically adjusting for\u0000 an extensive set of observed covariates. However, we find no evidence that\u0000 arraignment time affects pretrial release rates in the remainder of each\u0000 decision-making session. Moreover, we find that release rates remain\u0000 unchanged after a meal break even though judges have the opportunity to\u0000 replenish their mental and physical resources by resting and eating. In a\u0000 complementary analysis, we find that the rate at which judges concur with\u0000 prosecutorial bail requests does not appear to be influenced by either\u0000 arraignment time or a meal break. Taken together, our results imply that to\u0000 the extent that decision fatigue plays a role in pretrial release judgments,\u0000 effects are small and inconsistent with previous explanations implicating\u0000 psychological depletion processes.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45227563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Value-directed information search in partner choice 合作伙伴选择中的价值导向信息搜索

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-11-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009426

Hongyi Wang, Jiaxin Ma, Lisheng He

引用次数: 1

When and why people perform mindless math 人们什么时候以及为什么进行无意识的数学运算

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-11-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009396

M. A. Lawson, Richard P. Larrick, Jack B. Soll

引用次数: 1

Scientific contagion heuristic: Judgments about the acceptability of water for religious use after potential scientific treatment 科学传染启发式：对潜在科学处理后宗教用水可接受性的判断

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-11-01 DOI: 10.1017/s193029750000944x

Sumita Mukherjee, P. Mukherjee

{"title":"Scientific contagion heuristic: Judgments about the acceptability of\u0000 water for religious use after potential scientific treatment","authors":"Sumita Mukherjee, P. Mukherjee","doi":"10.1017/s193029750000944x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s193029750000944x","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We propose the concept of ‘scientific contagion’ — a mental heuristic\u0000 through which any form of scientific treatment transfers some essence of\u0000 ‘science’ to the processed substance, thereby affecting its nature and\u0000 social acceptability. This was tested regarding the potential treatment of\u0000 water from natural sources before it is used for religious purposes, as many\u0000 such sources have dangerous pollutants. For an ancient natural well having a\u0000 religious narrative, most participants judged that the acceptability of\u0000 water would be reduced for religious purposes but not for drinking if local\u0000 officials scientifically treat the water. That is not the case if religious\u0000 rituals are conducted on the water instead (Study 1). If water from a “holy\u0000 river” is processed scientifically, most participants predicted that it\u0000 would reduce acceptability for religious use while increasing acceptability\u0000 for drinking (Study 2). Potential scientific treatment without altering the\u0000 composition of water from a natural spring also decreased acceptability for\u0000 religious use but there was no effect on acceptability for drinking or on\u0000 willingness to pay money for the water (Study 3). A follow-up study\u0000 comparing acceptability for different kinds of water sources — from a holy\u0000 well, natural spring, and household tap water sourced from either\u0000 underground wells or rivers found lower acceptability for religious usage\u0000 compared to drinking after potential scientific treatment for all these\u0000 waters, but more so for holy and natural waters (Study 4). These studies\u0000 establish the phenomena of scientific contagion that could have significant\u0000 social implications and open future directions.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43864630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Successful everyday decision making: Combining attributes and associates 成功的日常决策：结合属性和关联

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-11-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009414

A. Banks, David M. Gamblin

{"title":"Successful everyday decision making: Combining attributes and\u0000 associates","authors":"A. Banks, David M. Gamblin","doi":"10.1017/s1930297500009414","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500009414","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 How do people make everyday decisions in order to achieve the most\u0000 successful outcome? Decision making research typically evaluates choices\u0000 according to their expected utility. However, this research largely focuses\u0000 on abstract or hypothetical tasks and rarely investigates whether the\u0000 outcome is successful and satisfying for the decision maker. Instead, we use\u0000 an everyday decision making task in which participants describe a personally\u0000 meaningful decision they are currently facing. We investigate the decision\u0000 processes used to make this decision, and evaluate how successful and\u0000 satisfying the outcome of the decision is for them. We examine how well\u0000 analytic, attribute-based processes explain everyday decision making and\u0000 predict decision outcomes, and we compare these processes to associative\u0000 processes elicited through free association. We also examine the\u0000 characteristics of decisions and individuals that are associated with good\u0000 decision outcomes. Across three experiments we found that: 1) an analytic\u0000 decision analysis of everyday decisions is not superior to simpler\u0000 attribute-based processes in predicting decision outcomes; 2) contrary to\u0000 research linking associative cognition to biases, free association generates\u0000 valid cues that predict choice and decision outcomes as effectively as\u0000 attribute-based approaches; 3) contrary to research favouring either\u0000 attribute-based or associative processes, combining both attribute-based and\u0000 associates best explains everyday decisions and most accurately predicts\u0000 decision outcomes; and 4) individuals with a tendency to attempt analytic\u0000 thinking do not make more successful everyday decisions. Instead, frequency,\u0000 simplicity, and knowledge of the decision predict success. We propose that\u0000 attribute-based and associative processes, in combination, both explain\u0000 everyday decision making and predict successful decision outcomes.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46076261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0