Judgment and Decision Making最新文献_第5页

On the descriptive value of the reliance on small-samples assumption 关于依赖小样本假设的描述性价值

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009311

Ido Erev, Doron Cohen, Ofir Yakobi

{"title":"On the descriptive value of the reliance on small-samples assumption","authors":"Ido Erev, Doron Cohen, Ofir Yakobi","doi":"10.1017/s1930297500009311","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500009311","url":null,"abstract":"Experience is the best teacher. Yet, in the context of repeated decisions, experience was found to trigger deviations from maximization in the direction of underweighting of rare events. Evaluations of alternative explanations for this bias led to contradicting conclusions. Studies that focused on the aggregate choice rates, including a series of choice prediction competitions, favored the assumption that this bias reflects reliance on small samples. In contrast, studies that focused on individual decisions suggest that the bias reflects a strong myopic tendency by a significant minority of participants. The current analysis clarifies the apparent inconsistency by reanalyzing a data set that previously led to contradicting conclusions. Our analysis suggests that the apparent inconsistency reflects the differing focus of the cognitive models. Specifically, sequential adjustment models (that assume sensitivity to the payoffs’ weighted averages) tend to find support for the hypothesis that the deviations from maximization are a product of strong positive recency (a form of myopia). Conversely, models assuming random sampling of past experiences tend to find support to the hypothesis that the deviations reflect reliance on small samples. We propose that the debate should be resolved by using the assumptions that provide better predictions. Applying this solution to the data set we analyzed shows that the random sampling assumption outperforms the weighted average assumption both when predicting the aggregate choice rates and when predicting the individual decisions.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46117260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Failing to ignore the ignorant: Mistaking ignorance for error 忽视无知：把无知误认为错误

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s193029750000927x

André Vaz, André Mata

引用次数: 0

Loss aversion (simply) does not materialize for smaller losses 损失厌恶（简单地）不会因较小的损失而实现

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s193029750000930x

Dana Zeif, E. Yechiam

{"title":"Loss aversion (simply) does not materialize for smaller losses","authors":"Dana Zeif, E. Yechiam","doi":"10.1017/s193029750000930x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s193029750000930x","url":null,"abstract":"Loss aversion, the argument that losses are given more weight than gains, has been recently shown to be absent in small losses. However, a series of studies by Mrkva et al. (2020) appear to demonstrate the existence of loss aversion even for smaller losses. We re-ran Mrkva et al.’s decision tasks after removing features of the task that differentiated losses from the gains, particularly asymmetries in sizes of gains and losses, an increasing order of losses, and status quo effects. The results show that we replicate Mrkva et al.’s (2020) findings in their original paradigm with online participants, yet in five studies where gains and losses were symmetrically presented in random order (n = 2,001), we find no loss aversion for small amounts, with loss aversion surfacing very weakly only for average losses of $40 (mean λ = 1.16). We do find loss aversion for higher amounts such as $100 (mean λ = 1.54) though it is not as extreme as previously reported. Furthermore, we find weak correlation between the endowment effect and loss aversion, with the former effect existing simultaneously with no loss aversion. Thus, when items are presented symmetrically, significant loss aversion emerges only for large losses, suggesting that it cannot be argued that (all) “losses loom larger than gains.”","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45451177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Sample decisions with description and experience 具有描述和经验的示例决策

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009360

Ronald Klingebiel, Feibai Zhu

引用次数: 0

The endowment effect in the future: How time shapes buying and selling prices 未来的禀赋效应：时间如何影响买卖价格

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009293

Shohei Yamamoto, D. Navarro-Martinez

引用次数: 1

Pledging one’s trustworthiness through gifts: An experiment 通过礼物保证自己的可信度：一项实验

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009359

G. Danese, L. Mittone

{"title":"Pledging one’s trustworthiness through gifts: An experiment","authors":"G. Danese, L. Mittone","doi":"10.1017/s1930297500009359","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500009359","url":null,"abstract":"Ethnographers have recorded many instances of tokens donated as gifts to attract new partners or strengthen ties to existing ones. We study whether gifts are an effective pledge of the donor’s trustworthiness through an experiment modeled on the trust game. We vary whether the trustee can send a token before the trustor decides whether to transfer money; whether one of the tokens is rendered salient through experimental manipulations (a vote or an incentive-compatible rule of purchase for the tokens); and whether the subjects interact repeatedly or are randomly re-matched in each round. Tokens are frequently sent in all studies in which tokens are available, but repeated interaction, rather than gifts, is the leading behavioral driver in our data. In the studies with random pairs, trustors send significantly more points when the trustee has sent a token. Subjects in a fixed matching achieve comparable levels of trust and trustworthiness in the studies with and without tokens. The trustee’s decision to send a token is not predictive of the amount the trustee returns to the trustor. A token is used more sparingly whenever salient — a novel instance of endogenous value creation in the lab.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49346248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Voting under time pressure 时间压力下的投票

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009335

Carlos Alós-Ferrer, Michele Garagnani

引用次数: 0

Does boredom affect economic risk preferences? 无聊会影响经济风险偏好吗？

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009347

Sergio Pirla, D. Navarro-Martinez

引用次数: 0

Perception of generosity under matching and rebate subsidies 匹配和回扣补贴下的慷慨感

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009323

Nathan W. Chan, S. Knowles, R. Peeters, L. Wolk

引用次数: 0

The effect of a reference point in task difficulty: How does a task that becomes irrelevant affect effort, feelings and perceptions 参考点对任务难度的影响:任务变得不相关如何影响努力、感觉和感知

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500008949

Alisa Voslinsky, Ofer H. Azar

{"title":"The effect of a reference point in task difficulty: How does a task that becomes irrelevant affect effort, feelings and perceptions","authors":"Alisa Voslinsky, Ofer H. Azar","doi":"10.1017/s1930297500008949","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500008949","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the effect of an irrelevant task that may become a reference point on subjects’ effort, feelings and perceptions. All subjects complete up to 25 tasks and are paid $0.10 per task solved correctly. However, some subjects have an easy task of finding one letter and others have a hard task of finding two letters. In the irrelevant-task treatment conditions subjects are told about the two types of tasks and are then assigned randomly to one. In addition, there are two control conditions, and in each control condition subjects are assigned to a specific task without the other task being possible or mentioned. Subjects in the irrelevant-task treatments express more positive (negative) feelings when assigned to the easy (hard) task. The control conditions that have no reference point of another task are in between the two irrelevant-task treatments in the feeling ratings. We hypothesized that for a given task, the subjects in the experimental conditions that have more positive feelings will also solve more tasks, but this hypothesis was not supported by the data. Finally, subjects who receive the easy task complete more tasks than the ones with the hard task.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46853802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0