Judgment and Decision Making最新文献_第10页

Base rate neglect and conservatism in probabilistic reasoning: Insights from eliciting full distributions 概率推理中的基本率忽略和保守性:从引出完全分布的见解

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2021-09-30 DOI: 10.31234/osf.io/q7znk

P. Howe, Andrew Perfors, B. Walker, Y. Kashima, N. Fay

{"title":"Base rate neglect and conservatism in probabilistic reasoning: Insights from eliciting full distributions","authors":"P. Howe, Andrew Perfors, B. Walker, Y. Kashima, N. Fay","doi":"10.31234/osf.io/q7znk","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/q7znk","url":null,"abstract":"Bayesian statistics offers a normative description for how a person should combine their original beliefs (i.e., their priors) in light of new evidence (i.e., the likelihood). Previous research suggests that people tend to under-weight both their prior (base rate neglect) and the likelihood (conservatism), although this varies by individual and situation. Yet this work generally elicits people's knowledge as single point estimates (e.g., x has 5% probability of occurring) rather than as a full distribution. Here we demonstrate the utility of eliciting and fitting full distributions when studying these questions. Across three experiments, we found substantial variation in the extent to which people showed base rate neglect and conservatism, which our method allowed us to measure for the first time simultaneously at the level of the individual. We found that while most people tended to disregard the base rate, they did so less when the prior was made explicit. Although many individuals were conservative, there was no apparent systematic relationship between base rate neglect and conservatism within individuals. We suggest that this method shows great potential for studying human probabilistic reasoning.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43304326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multiattribute judgment: Acceptance of a new COVID-19 vaccine as a function of price, risk, and effectiveness 多属性判断：接受新冠肺炎新疫苗与价格、风险和有效性的关系

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s193029750000838x

M. Birnbaum

引用次数: 0

Seven (weak and strong) helping effects systematically tested in separate evaluation, joint evaluation and forced choice 在单独评价、联合评价和强制选择中系统测试了七种(弱和强)帮助效果

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500008378

Arvid Erlandsson

引用次数: 9

Consumers’ ability to identify a surplus when returns to attributes are nonlinear 当回归属性时，消费者识别剩余的能力是非线性的

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500008391

P. Lunn, Jason Somerville

引用次数: 0

Input-dependent noise can explain magnitude-sensitivity in optimal value-based decision-making 输入相关噪声可以解释基于最优值的决策中的幅度敏感性

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500008408

Angelo Pirrone, A. Reina, F. Gobet

{"title":"Input-dependent noise can explain magnitude-sensitivity in optimal value-based decision-making","authors":"Angelo Pirrone, A. Reina, F. Gobet","doi":"10.1017/s1930297500008408","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500008408","url":null,"abstract":"Recent work has derived the optimal policy for two-alternative value-based decisions, in which decision-makers compare the subjective expected reward of two alternatives. Under specific task assumptions — such as linear utility, linear cost of time and constant processing noise — the optimal policy is implemented by a diffusion process in which parallel decision thresholds collapse over time as a function of prior knowledge about average reward across trials. This policy predicts that the decision dynamics of each trial are dominated by the difference in value between alternatives and are insensitive to the magnitude of the alternatives (i.e., their summed values). This prediction clashes with empirical evidence showing magnitude-sensitivity even in the case of equal alternatives, and with ecologically plausible accounts of decision making. Previous work has shown that relaxing assumptions about linear utility or linear time cost can give rise to optimal magnitude-sensitive policies. Here we question the assumption of constant processing noise, in favour of input-dependent noise. The neurally plausible assumption of input-dependent noise during evidence accumulation has received strong support from previous experimental and modelling work. We show that including input-dependent noise in the evidence accumulation process results in a magnitude-sensitive optimal policy for value-based decision-making, even in the case of a linear utility function and a linear cost of time, for both single (i.e., isolated) choices and sequences of choices in which decision-makers maximise reward rate. Compared to explanations that rely on non-linear utility functions and/or non-linear cost of time, our proposed account of magnitude-sensitive optimal decision-making provides a parsimonious explanation that bridges the gap between various task assumptions and between various types of decision making.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49403485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Risky choice framing by experience: A methodological note 基于经验的风险选择框架:一个方法论注释

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500008445

A. Kühberger

引用次数: 1

Outcome feedback reduces over-forecasting of inflation and overconfidence in forecasts 结果反馈减少了对通胀的过度预测和对预测的过度自信

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2021-08-06 DOI: 10.17632/ZRM9PZPRFD.1

Xiaoxiao Niu, N. Harvey

{"title":"Outcome feedback reduces over-forecasting of inflation and overconfidence\u0000 in forecasts","authors":"Xiaoxiao Niu, N. Harvey","doi":"10.17632/ZRM9PZPRFD.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17632/ZRM9PZPRFD.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Survey respondents over-forecast inflation: they expect it to be higher\u0000 than it turns out to be. Furthermore, people are generally overconfident in\u0000 their forecasts. In two experiments, we show that providing outcome feedback\u0000 that informs people of the actual level of the inflation that they have\u0000 forecast reduces both over-forecasting and overconfidence in forecasts.\u0000 These improvements were preserved even after feedback had been withdrawn, a\u0000 finding that indicates that they were not produced because feedback had a\u0000 temporary incentive effect but because it had a more permanent learning\u0000 effect. However, providing forecasters with more outcome feedback did not\u0000 have a greater effect. Feedback appears to provide people with information\u0000 about biases in their judgments and, once they have received that\u0000 information, no additional advantage is obtained by giving it to them again.\u0000 Reducing over-forecasting also had no clear effect on overall error. This\u0000 was because providing outcome feedback after every judgment also affected\u0000 the noise or random error in forecasts, increasing it by a sufficient amount\u0000 to cancel out the benefits provided by the reduction in\u0000 over-forecasting.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44249734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

A Brief Forewarning Intervention Overcomes Negative Effects of Salient Changes in COVID-19 Guidance 简短的预警干预克服新冠肺炎指南显著变化的负面影响

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2021-08-05 DOI: 10.31234/osf.io/gbqw3

J. Gretton, E. Meyers, A. C. Walker, Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Derek J. Koehler

引用次数: 4

The relation between disgust sensitivity and risk-taking propensity: A domain specific approach 厌恶敏感性和冒险倾向之间的关系：一种特定领域的方法

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500008044

Barış Sevi, Natalie J. Shook

{"title":"The relation between disgust sensitivity and risk-taking propensity: A domain specific approach","authors":"Barış Sevi, Natalie J. Shook","doi":"10.1017/s1930297500008044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500008044","url":null,"abstract":"Disgust is a cross-culturally recognized emotion that is characterized by avoidant or cautious tendencies. Accordingly, greater sensitivity to disgust may be related to less willingness to take risks. Relatively little research has examined the association between disgust sensitivity and risk-taking propensity. Further, no research to date has taken a domain specific approach to understanding the association between these constructs. Across two studies (N1=98, N2=390) and a mini-meta analysis utilizing two additional datasets (total N=1981), we assessed the extent to which domain specific disgust sensitivity (i.e., Pathogen, Sexual, and Moral) were related to domain specific risk-taking propensity (i.e., Social, Recreational, Health/Safety, Ethical, and Financial). We conducted two cross-sectional studies, with a community and a student sample. Participants completed surveys that included measures of disgust sensitivity and risk-taking propensity. Bivariate correlations across the two studies indicated that greater disgust sensitivity was related to lower risk-taking propensity across almost all domains. However, when controlling for covariance among the disgust sensitivity domains, regression analyses suggested variability in the association between disgust sensitivity and risk-taking propensity depending on domains. Based on mini meta-analysis, sexual disgust sensitivity had the strongest relationships with social risk-taking propensity and health/safety risk-taking propensity, and moral disgust sensitivity had the strongest relationship with ethical risk-taking propensity. These findings suggest the presence of domain specific relations between disgust sensitivity and risk-taking propensity. The domain specific focus may help in utilizing disgust as a factor to decrease certain risky behaviors (e.g., moral disgust for decreasing plagiarism).","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49467659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Apparent age and gender differences in survival optimism: To what extent are they a bias in the translation of beliefs onto a percentage scale? 生存乐观主义中明显的年龄和性别差异：在多大程度上，它们是将信仰转化为百分比的偏见？

IF 2.5 3区心理学

Judgment and Decision Making Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500008093

David A. Comerford

{"title":"Apparent age and gender differences in survival optimism: To what extent are they a bias in the translation of beliefs onto a percentage scale?","authors":"David A. Comerford","doi":"10.1017/s1930297500008093","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500008093","url":null,"abstract":"A standard way to elicit expectations asks for the percentage chance an event will occur. Previous research demonstrates noise in reported percentages. The current research models a bias; a five percentage point change in reported probabilities implies a larger change in beliefs at certain points in the probability distribution. One contribution of my model is that it can parse bias in beliefs from biases in reports. I reconsider age and gender differences in Subjective Survival Probabilities (SSPs). These are generally interpreted as differences in survival beliefs, e.g., that males are more optimistic than females and older respondents are more optimistic than younger respondents. These demographic differences (in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing) can be entirely explained by reporting bias. Older respondents are no more optimistic than younger respondents and males are no more optimistic than females. Similarly, in forecasting, information is obscured by taking reported percentages at face value. Accounting for reporting bias thus better exploits the private information contained in reports. Relative to a face-value specification, a specification that does this delivers improved forecasts of mortality events, raising the pseudo R-squared from less than 3 percent to over 6 percent.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43949874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2