Jying-Nan Wang , Samuel A. Vigne , Hung-Chun Liu , Yuan-Teng Hsu
{"title":"Hacks and the price synchronicity of bitcoin and ether","authors":"Jying-Nan Wang , Samuel A. Vigne , Hung-Chun Liu , Yuan-Teng Hsu","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.04.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.04.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We use intraday trading data from the Kraken exchange to calculate the daily price synchronicity of Bitcoin and Ether from February 2018 to December 2022. We then use a comprehensive report provided by christalblockchain.com to investigate the impact of hacks on price synchronicity between the top two cryptocurrencies. Our results show that price synchronicity, as measured by the realized correlation, is consistently positive throughout the sample period, with only one (negative) exception. We further uncover a positive relationship between hacking events and the future price synchronicity of Bitcoin and Ether. This result is robust to an alternative price synchronicity measure.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"95 ","pages":"Pages 294-299"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140787863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Dual effects of investor sentiment and uncertainty in financial markets","authors":"Sangik Seok , Hoon Cho , Doojin Ryu","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.04.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.04.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the interplay between firm-level investor sentiment and uncertainty in financial markets. We demonstrate that investor sentiment significantly influences short-term stock market returns, particularly when there is an increase in firm-level uncertainty. This correlation becomes weaker among firms experiencing a decrease in uncertainty. The cross-sectional effect of sentiment is more pronounced during periods of heightened uncertainty, as evidenced by the higher returns of sentiment-based long-short portfolios under these conditions. Our findings are robust to adjusting for various factors and using alternative uncertainty and sentiment measures.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"95 ","pages":"Pages 300-315"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140762785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Afees A. Salisu , Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna , Rangan Gupta , Elie Bouri
{"title":"Energy-related uncertainty and international stock market volatility","authors":"Afees A. Salisu , Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna , Rangan Gupta , Elie Bouri","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.04.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.04.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper predicts the daily return volatility of 28 advanced and developing stock markets using monthly metrics of the corresponding country and global energy-related uncertainty indexes (EUIs) recently proposed in the literature. Using data in their “natural” frequencies to avoid aggregation bias, the results show that country-specific and global EUIs have predictive powers for stock returns volatility for the in-sample periods, with increased levels of EUIs exhibiting the tendency to heighten volatility. This predictability also withstands various out-of-sample forecast horizons, implying that EUI is a statistically relevant predictor in the out-of-sample analysis. The forecast precision of the GARCH-MIDAS model is improved by incorporating global EUIs relatively more than country-specific EUIs. The robustness of the findings with respect to the choice of EUI and sample definition is further confirmed. The outcomes have important policy implications for the concerned stakeholders who are concerned with stability in the global financial system and economy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"95 ","pages":"Pages 280-293"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976924000589/pdfft?md5=4756c1d423cd03d63476fe8d01cf3fb1&pid=1-s2.0-S1062976924000589-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140781634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Inés Merino Fdez-Galiano , José Manuel Feria-Dominguez
{"title":"Do ESG disclosures mitigate investors’ reaction on mining disasters? Evidence from Brazil","authors":"Inés Merino Fdez-Galiano , José Manuel Feria-Dominguez","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.04.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2024.04.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The purpose of this paper is to examine the investors´ reaction to the largest ecological disasters –Samarco (2015) and Brumadinho (2019)– occurred in Minas Gerais (Brazil). Applying a short-term event study analysis, we test the stock and Credit Default Swap (CDS) market´s on the mining sector. Moreover, a cross-sectional analysis is performed testing the effect of ESG disclosures on the market reaction –in terms of Cumulative Abnormal Returns, CAR– on the competitors of Vale S.A., the company involved in such ecological catastrophes. Our findings show a statistically significant reaction in both events. Investors´ react negatively and immediately in the case of Vale for both events; CARs are statistically significant for the shorter windows. However, investors react differently in the mining sector sample –excluding Vale–. While CARs are negative in Samarco, investors do so positively in the case of Brumadinho. In that sense, investors seemed as if they switch their perceptions from this first event –Samarco–in comparison to the most recent one –Brumadinho– rewarding the increase of ESG disclosures in the meantime and mitigating a negative contagion effect in the mining sector. The impact on the CDS market is also found positive in mining sector.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"95 ","pages":"Pages 256-267"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976924000565/pdfft?md5=6897ed0518caf14706a453ff0ebd438e&pid=1-s2.0-S1062976924000565-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140639040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pattanaporn Chatjuthamard , Pornsit Jiraporn , Sang Mook Lee , Pattarake Sarajoti
{"title":"Customer concentration, managerial risk aversion, and hostile takeover threats","authors":"Pattanaporn Chatjuthamard , Pornsit Jiraporn , Sang Mook Lee , Pattarake Sarajoti","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.04.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2024.04.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Exploiting a unique measure of takeover vulnerability principally based on the staggered passage of anti-takeover state legislations, we investigate how customer concentration is influenced by the discipline of the market for corporate control, which is widely regarded as a crucial instrument of external corporate governance. Our results demonstrate that more takeover exposure raises customer concentration considerably. Specifically, a rise in takeover susceptibility by one standard deviation increases customer concentration by 8.10%− 9.16%. When insulated from the discipline of the takeover market, risk-averse managers prefer to live a quiet life, trying to reduce firm risk. Consequently, they seek to lower customer concentration as a high level of customer concentration is risky. Therefore, firms more exposed to hostile takeovers exhibit higher customer concentration. Further analysis including entropy balancing, propensity score matching, and instrumental-variable analysis validates the results. Our study is the first to link customer concentration to the market for corporate control.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"95 ","pages":"Pages 268-279"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140650059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jingrong Li , Xinyu Mi , Chenlei Zhang , Yanran Qin
{"title":"Social pension insurance and household risky asset investment: Evidence from China","authors":"Jingrong Li , Xinyu Mi , Chenlei Zhang , Yanran Qin","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.04.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2024.04.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Using the data from the 2013, 2015, and 2017 waves of the China Household Finance Survey, this paper explores the impact of participation in social pension insurance on household risky asset investment with the time-varying difference-in-difference model. The research findings indicate that, in urban areas, insured households are 2.3% more likely to invest in risky assets compared to uninsured households, and the share invested in risky assets is 0.8% higher. This positive effect is more pronounced for households with a higher level of risk preference. At the same time, there is no significant difference in the probability or proportion of risky assets allocation between insured and uninsured households in rural areas. These findings have important policy implications. When the government reforms the social pension insurance system or allocates public resources in the future, they can consider gradually breaking the dual urban-rural structure in the pension insurance system to alleviate concerns among rural households regarding uncertainties.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"95 ","pages":"Pages 219-233"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140558039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Factor returns and FOMC announcements: The role of sentiment","authors":"George Dotsis , Carlo Rosa","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.03.014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.03.014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We examine the dynamics of long-short factor returns on FOMC announcement days and the role of sentiment. We find that factor returns are negative on FOMC announcement days. Moreover, on these days returns are significantly lower following low sentiment periods. Hence, investor sentiment is a key driver of factor returns on FOMC days and this effect emanates mainly from the short portfolio leg of each factor.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"97 ","pages":"Article 101853"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S106297692400053X/pdfft?md5=a2c5013e3a49f7334003bf40d268fc35&pid=1-s2.0-S106297692400053X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140786354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
João Paulo Augusto Eça , Tatiana Albanez , Rafael Felipe Schiozer , Mauricio Ribeiro do Valle
{"title":"The determinants of debt renegotiation: Evidence from Brazil","authors":"João Paulo Augusto Eça , Tatiana Albanez , Rafael Felipe Schiozer , Mauricio Ribeiro do Valle","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.04.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2024.04.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We investigate factors that affect debt renegotiation in an emerging economy, focusing on Brazil's publicly-listed non-financial firms. We manually collect novel data from more than three thousand notes to financial statements. The results show that the deterioration in the financial condition of companies - marked by declining profitability and increasing leverage - increases the probability of debt renegotiations. Furthermore, our findings reveal that the impairment in a firm's payment capacity, such as reduced profitability, cash flow, and interest coverage heighten the chances of renegotiations incorporating debtholder compensation mechanisms. Our results expand the knowledge about renegotiation to a context that has been scarcely addressed in previous studies: emerging markets. Additionally, it provides novel insights into the use of compensation mechanisms during renegotiations — an aspect little explored in the literature, although very present in renegotiations. We also innovate by addressing renegotiations with bondholders, an aspect largely overlooked in extant literature.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"95 ","pages":"Pages 244-255"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140620908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nikolaos Elias, Dimitris Smyrnakis, Elias Tzavalis
{"title":"The forward premium anomaly and the currency carry trade hypothesis","authors":"Nikolaos Elias, Dimitris Smyrnakis, Elias Tzavalis","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.03.013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2024.03.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, we examine whether the currency carry trade hypothesis can consistently explain the forward premium bias (anomaly) across different regimes of interest rates differentials. To investigate this, we consider a nonlinear extension of the forward premium regression allowing for interest rates differentials threshold effects. Using the US dollar as home currency, we provide clear-cut evidence that the currency carry trade hypothesis can offer an explanation of the forward premium anomaly only when interest rates differentials are positive. When they are negative, or close to zero, the hypothesis fails to explain the forward premium anomaly. We show that the negative interest rates differentials regime covers periods of financial crises and distressed market conditions which may lead investors to seek safe-haven currencies and thus, adopt anti-carry trade strategies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"95 ","pages":"Pages 203-218"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140552676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Aghamehman Hajiyev, Karl Ludwig Keiber, Adalbert Luczak
{"title":"Tug of war with noise traders? Evidence from the G7 stock markets","authors":"Aghamehman Hajiyev, Karl Ludwig Keiber, Adalbert Luczak","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.03.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.03.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper studies the tug of war between overnight noise trading and daytime arbitrage in the G7 stock markets. We confirm Akbas, Boehmer, Jiang, and Koch (2022) reporting that this tug of war predicts future returns in the US stock market. We verify this result also in the Canadian stock market. In contrast, for the stock markets of France, Germany, Italy, the UK, and Japan, this tug of war is not predictive for future returns. These country-wise findings are documented in average raw returns and prevail upon risk adjustment along both Carhart (1997) four factors and Fama and French (2018) six factors. A microstructure perspective on the tug of war suggests that the split evidence between the US and Canadian stock markets and the remaining G7 stock markets is due to institutional and regulatory differences which restrict daytime institutional arbitrage in the European stock markets and Japan.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"95 ","pages":"Pages 234-243"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976924000498/pdfft?md5=bb8d676c2fd1d4876a356928bafef969&pid=1-s2.0-S1062976924000498-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140399973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}