{"title":"Does Economic Policy Uncertainty differ from other uncertainty measures? Replication of Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016)","authors":"Siye Bae, Soojin Jo, Myungkyu Shim","doi":"10.1111/caje.12757","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12757","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper revisits Baker et al.'s (2016) main finding that shows the significant negative impacts of shocks to the Economic Policy Uncertainty index on the US aggregate economic activity. We focus on subsample analyses with sample periods extended to December 2022. We find that shocks to the index do not significantly affect the economy during the period from September 2008 to December 2019, in contrast to significant negative impacts found in the sample ending earlier. Interestingly, this feature is specific to the Economic Policy Uncertainty index, while other popular uncertainty measures retain downward pressures on the economy across all of the subsample periods under examination. Economic Policy Uncertainty again deters economic activity once the COVID-19 period is included in the sample, implying that the size of shocks and/or the state of the economy may play an additional role for its transmission.</p>","PeriodicalId":47941,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Canadienne D Economique","volume":"58 1","pages":"40-74"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143475795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The local effects of the first Golden Age of Globalization: Evidence from American ports, 1870–1900","authors":"Jeff Chan","doi":"10.1111/caje.12752","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12752","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper uses digitized US trade flows data at the customs district level from 1870 to 1900 to investigate whether trade shocks had an effect on the size and composition of the population of US ports and on their economic activity. I find that trade increased the population of districts, driven principally by growth in urban populations, and that manufacturing activity also increased. However, these results dissipate rapidly with distance: counties adjacent to ports do not see similar gains from trade booms at nearby ports. My results imply that trade was a contributing factor in the structural transformation of America's economy.</p>","PeriodicalId":47941,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Canadienne D Economique","volume":"58 1","pages":"329-355"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143475493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Endogenous equity shares in duopoly markets with product differentiation","authors":"Yi Li","doi":"10.1111/caje.12750","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12750","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Firms can form partial passive ownership arrangements by acquiring equity shares in competitors' profits. We consider a duopoly model in which products are differentiated along both vertical and horizontal dimensions and one firm may acquire the other firm's equity shares before they engage in strategic competition. We identify equilibrium equity shares and characterize how the choice of equity shares depends on three previously unexplored factors: (i) the size of the market, (ii) the degree of horizontal product differentiation and (iii) the degree of vertical product differentiation. Whether an increase in the size of the market increases firm's incentive to hold a stake in the rival depends on whether the acquiring firm is a high-quality firm or a low-quality firm. The effect of vertical product differentiation also depends on the type of the acquiring firm, high-quality vis-à-vis low-quality. On the contrary, an increase in horizontal product differentiation can increase firm's incentive to hold a stake in the rival, irrespective of the type of the acquiring firm. We also find that the equilibrium levels of consumer welfare and social welfare may be lower compared to the case of no partial passive ownership.</p>","PeriodicalId":47941,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Canadienne D Economique","volume":"58 1","pages":"227-246"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143475481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Antoine Gervais, James R. Markusen, Anthony J. Venables
{"title":"Regional specialization: From the geography of industries to the geography of jobs","authors":"Antoine Gervais, James R. Markusen, Anthony J. Venables","doi":"10.1111/caje.12747","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12747","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Our analysis begins with an empirical investigation of how employment concentration in industries and occupations across regions of the United States has changed over time and how regional specialization has changed. Results show that industry concentration and specialization indices have fallen, while occupation concentration and specialization indices have risen. Using this background as motivation, we develop a model in which the comparative advantage of regions lies in their productivity of supplying functions such as law, finance, advertising and engineering, to multiple sectors. Productivity differences specific to region functions shape the location decisions of industries that use multiple functions and hence determine patterns of regional specialization both in functions and in sectors. A key parameter is the cost of sourcing functions from a different region (fragmentation costs), and we show that a fall in this cost mimics the data: sector concentration and regional specialization fall and function concentration and specialization rise. At high fragmentation costs, regional comparative advantage in sectors determines general equilibrium analogous to a Heckscher–Ohlin model (HO). At low fragmentation costs, comparative advantage in functions drives an equilibrium that has little resemblance to a HO world.</p>","PeriodicalId":47941,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Canadienne D Economique","volume":"57 4","pages":"1236-1264"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/caje.12747","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142737399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Tracking technical change: Past, present and future","authors":"Michelle Alexopoulos, Jon Cohen","doi":"10.1111/caje.12749","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12749","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Productivity growth in many countries has remained low for several years. Whether new technologies can reverse the trend depends on the scope of their impact and scale of their adoption—two dimensions of technical change that are historically difficult to measure. Here, we elaborate on the materials and methods presented in Alexopoulos's presidential address at the 2024 Canadian Economics Association meeting. Specifically, we discuss how applying natural language processing and text mining to library collections and cataloguing materials can help: (i) identify new technologies as they come to market and (ii) track their uses and spread over time. We further describe how our insights can be used to uncover general purpose technologies and macro-innovations in both the past and the present. An application to current data suggests that AI and robotics are responsible for an increasing share of recent technical change. Moreover, they resemble past early-stage general purpose technologies and thus do promise a reversal in productivity trends as their adoption increases. Going forward, our new methods should be especially useful to economists and policy-makers who need to track future development and adoption of key technologies—especially during periods of rapid innovation.</p>","PeriodicalId":47941,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Canadienne D Economique","volume":"57 4","pages":"1047-1087"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/caje.12749","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142737401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The design of external reference pricing schemes and the choice of reference countries and pricing rules","authors":"Laura Birg","doi":"10.1111/caje.12744","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12744","url":null,"abstract":"<p>External reference pricing imposes a price cap for drugs based on prices in other countries. I study the choice of reference countries and pricing rules in a three-country framework. If the manufacturer sells to all three countries, the minimum price rule yields the lowest drug price. If the referencing country is sufficiently large, the manufacturer may not export to reference countries under the minimum price rule. External reference pricing creates the incentive for the reference countries also to adopt external reference pricing. Thus, external reference pricing results in price convergence.</p>","PeriodicalId":47941,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Canadienne D Economique","volume":"57 4","pages":"1182-1202"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/caje.12744","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142737503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How do exchange rates affect environmental quality?","authors":"Doyoung Park, William Ridley","doi":"10.1111/caje.12748","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12748","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Exchange rates are integral to explaining the environmental consequences of globalization because they govern the prices of imported inputs and the price competitiveness of exports and, consequently, firms' input use decisions, production levels and emissions. We study how exchange rates, foreign input sourcing and export orientation determine environmental outcomes across countries and industries in both theoretical and empirical contexts. For industries that rely intensively on imported intermediate inputs, a stronger domestic currency leads to higher emission intensities (emissions per unit of output), while the reverse holds for industries that export intensively. Our results thus show that exchange rates have implications for the environment that have heretofore remained unexplored.</p>","PeriodicalId":47941,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Canadienne D Economique","volume":"58 1","pages":"356-384"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/caje.12748","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143475820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Association news","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/caje.12739","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12739","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47941,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Canadienne D Economique","volume":"57 4","pages":"1459-1462"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142737606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Thorsten V. Koeppl, Jeremy M. Kronick, James McNeil
{"title":"Using functional shocks to assess conventional and unconventional monetary policy in Canada","authors":"Thorsten V. Koeppl, Jeremy M. Kronick, James McNeil","doi":"10.1111/caje.12741","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12741","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We develop a new series of Canadian monetary policy shocks for the time period 1986 to 2023. Our shocks are constructed as the daily change in the Nelson–Siegel yield curve factors on days of monetary policy events such as announcements of the short-run policy rate and speeches by Bank of Canada officials. This allows us to look at both conventional and unconventional monetary policy. We find that tighter monetary policy lowers inflation and GDP. Monetary policy shocks, however, often twist the yield curve, potentially offsetting changes in the short-run policy rate. Finally, speeches also tend to move the yield curve with similar effects on inflation and GDP as formal policy announcements.</p>","PeriodicalId":47941,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Canadienne D Economique","volume":"57 4","pages":"1314-1336"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/caje.12741","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142737633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Rule of law, economic structure and development","authors":"Roberto M. Samaniego, Juliana Y. Sun","doi":"10.1111/caje.12743","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12743","url":null,"abstract":"<p>If rule of law encourages relationship-specific investments, then industries that use intermediates which require relationship-specific investments should have a disproportionately low share of output or labour in countries where rule of law is weak. We find robust support for this prediction using data on industry composition for 189 countries. Using a standard preference framework to construct model-implied income values from the estimated coefficients, we find that the interaction between relationship specificity and rule of law may be an economically significant determinant of aggregate outcomes through its influence on productivity and economic structure.</p>","PeriodicalId":47941,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Journal of Economics-Revue Canadienne D Economique","volume":"57 4","pages":"1265-1284"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142724239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}