{"title":"Artificial intelligence and corporate investment efficiency: Evidence from China","authors":"Liangcheng Wang, Yizheng Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101314","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101314","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Artificial intelligence technology provides new solutions to management problems and plays an important role in investment decision-making. In this study, we explore the effect of artificial intelligence on corporate investment. Using a sample from China, we find that artificial intelligence improves corporate investment efficiency by enhancing internal control and ESG performance. This finding is particularly pronounced in firms with high artificial intelligence application proficiency and without state ownership. Finally, our findings demonstrate that AI could influence corporate investment decisions, encouraging firms to engage in risky investment behaviours. Our findings have implications for firms to adopt artificial intelligence to optimise investment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101314"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144196107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Winners and Losers: The Effects of Monetary Policy on Income and Consumption Inequality","authors":"Aariya Sen , Rudra Sensarma","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101318","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101318","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent studies have examined the impact of monetary policy on economic inequality, but have focused on advanced economies and wealth inequality. We analyse the impact of monetary policy on income and consumption inequality estimated from a household level dataset in India. We apply Sign-Restricted VAR and Local Projection models to monthly data for 2014–2023. We show that contractionary monetary policy worsens consumption inequality while reducing income inequality. We also find that while restrictive monetary policy reduces capital income inequality and wage income inequality it widens the gap between capital and wage income earners. Moreover, monetary policy exhibits asymmetric effects, suggesting trade-offs for the central bank.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101318"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144195135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does the source of oil shocks matter to exchange rate dynamics? Insights from Indonesia's dual role as an oil exporter and importer","authors":"Jungho Baek","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101312","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101312","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Oil prices are endogenously determined by oil demand and supply shocks, resulting in various impacts on exchange rates across different periods. The contribution of this article is to assess the effects of oil supply, aggregate demand, and oil-specific demand shocks on Indonesia's exchange rate. To accurately assess these impacts while considering Indonesia's dual roles in the oil market, we divide the analysis period into two distinct periods: the net oil exporting phase from January 1994 to December 2003 and the net oil importing phase from January 2004 to February 2023. Our findings reveal that during the net oil exporting phase, the impact of three oil shocks on Indonesia's currency is negligible in the short and long term. Conversely, during the net oil importing phase, our research demonstrates that oil-specific demand shocks significantly influence Indonesia's short- and long-term currency. In contrast, oil supply shocks primarily affect the short-term. Aggregate demand shocks, however, have minimal influence on the currency in either timeframe. Furthermore, our research provides compelling evidence that supports the presence of long-term asymmetry in all three shocks on Indonesia's currency. However, we do not identify any evidence of short-term asymmetry effects for any of the three oil shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 101312"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144178654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Leandro Andrian , Cesar M. Rodriguez , Oscar M. Valencia
{"title":"Surges in the shadows: Stock-flow adjustments and public debt spikes","authors":"Leandro Andrian , Cesar M. Rodriguez , Oscar M. Valencia","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101306","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101306","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the drivers of public debt surges in 172 countries from 1980 to 2021, focusing on stock-flow adjustments (SFA)—discrepancies between annual debt changes and budget deficits. Using survival analysis methods, we find that a one percentage point increase in the SFA to GDP ratio raises the hazard rate of a debt surge by 16%, with stronger effects in advanced economies (28%) compared to emerging markets (15%). Conditional on an increasing debt trend, higher SFA significantly increase the probability of a debt spike materializing. We address potential self-selection with an IV approach based on fiscal transparency, emphasizing that accurate SFA estimates are critical for debt sustainability analysis and policy risk assessment. Our findings suggest policy measures to mitigate risks from hidden debt trajectories, including enhanced budgetary transparency, strengthened debt management, more effective fiscal rules, and comprehensive risk assessment frameworks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 101306"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144190197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Loan spreads over the credit cycle","authors":"Tarık Alperen Er, Burak Deniz, İbrahim Yarba","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101313","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101313","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using novel bank-firm level credit registry data along with financial statements of all incorporated firms, this paper investigates firm heterogeneity in the evolution of loan spreads over the credit cycle in Türkiye. Our results show that small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and firms that are riskier and more prone to financial frictions pay higher loan interest rates. The results also reveal that loan spreads of these firms decrease and converge to the spreads of large and financially sound firms during expansion periods. Our results suggest that the significant role of firm riskiness on loan spreads weakens during expansion periods. On the other hand, SME loan spreads rise more than those of larger firms during periods of credit tightening. However, this is the case for loans extended by private banks but not state-owned banks. Our findings highlight the mitigating role of state-owned banks that can shield SMEs from asymmetric deterioration in their lending conditions during credit contractions and lend support to policymakers' prudent approaches over the credit cycle.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 101313"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144166627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Collateral eligibility of credit claims and bank liquidity creation: Evidence from China","authors":"Guangjie Geng , Miao Cheng , Mingwei Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101310","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101310","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The central bank's collateral framework plays a fundamental role in implementing quantitative easing and credit easing policies that facilitate liquidity creation. Since the international financial crisis of 2008, it has become a vital tool for central banks in advanced economies to support monetary policy and ensure financial stability. This paper explores how the eligibility of credit claims as collateral influences bank liquidity creation. We develop a theoretical model that considers collateral haircuts, collateral constraints, and bank liquidity creation. Utilizing data on the collateral framework expansion by the People's Bank of China, our findings indicate that recognizing credit claims as eligible collateral can increase bank liquidity creation by 2%. This corresponds to an average boost of 56.4 billion yuan in liquidity for the banks in our sample. Our analysis suggests that this increase is primarily due to enhanced risk tolerance among banks when collateral eligibility is expanded. Additionally, we observe that the effects are most pronounced in large commercial banks and rural commercial banks. To ensure the robustness of our results, we conduct several tests, including parallel trend and placebo tests, which affirm the reliability of our main findings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 101310"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144166701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The textual similarity of news content and stock return synchronicity","authors":"Rui Huang, Xing Chen, Chongfeng Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101309","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101309","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the relationship between news content and stock price movement in the Chinese stock market, proving that higher textual similarity of firm news to peers is accompanied with less idiosyncratic information and stronger stock return synchronicity. Our findings remain robust after applying the firm fixed effects, using the PSM method, expanding sample windows, and introducing instrumental variables. Additionally, the effect is pronounced for firms with poor information environments and high investor attention, in bull markets and under conditions of lower uncertainty. The effect varies depending on the authority of the news publishers and the themes of the news narratives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 101309"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144116448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does asynchronous market update matter? Re-examining the price discovery of stock index and futures in China","authors":"Qian Han , Chengzhi Zhao , Jing Chen , Qian Guo","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101307","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101307","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Uniquely addressing asynchronous informational update between index and futures, we find that reduction in data frequency depicts a dual effect of “noise reduction” and “speed reduction” on Hasbrouck's (1995) information share (IS) and Gonzalo-Granger's (1995) component share (CS) indicators. Furthermore, the “noise reduction” effect does not exist significantly on CS, thereby preventing Putniņš's (2013) information leading share (ILS) indicator from eliminating noise under low-frequency data. Our novel leading time (LT) indicator suggests that the Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300 (CSI 300) and China Stock Exchange 500 (CSI 500) futures dominate price discovery. An asynchronous informational update overestimates the price discovery ability of futures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 101307"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144068368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}