阴影中的飙升：股票流动调整和公共债务飙升

IF 4.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Emerging Markets Review Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI:10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101306

Leandro Andrian , Cesar M. Rodriguez , Oscar M. Valencia

{"title":"阴影中的飙升：股票流动调整和公共债务飙升","authors":"Leandro Andrian , Cesar M. Rodriguez , Oscar M. Valencia","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101306","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the drivers of public debt surges in 172 countries from 1980 to 2021, focusing on stock-flow adjustments (SFA)—discrepancies between annual debt changes and budget deficits. Using survival analysis methods, we find that a one percentage point increase in the SFA to GDP ratio raises the hazard rate of a debt surge by 16%, with stronger effects in advanced economies (28%) compared to emerging markets (15%). Conditional on an increasing debt trend, higher SFA significantly increase the probability of a debt spike materializing. We address potential self-selection with an IV approach based on fiscal transparency, emphasizing that accurate SFA estimates are critical for debt sustainability analysis and policy risk assessment. Our findings suggest policy measures to mitigate risks from hidden debt trajectories, including enhanced budgetary transparency, strengthened debt management, more effective fiscal rules, and comprehensive risk assessment frameworks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 101306"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Surges in the shadows: Stock-flow adjustments and public debt spikes\",\"authors\":\"Leandro Andrian , Cesar M. Rodriguez , Oscar M. Valencia\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101306\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>This paper investigates the drivers of public debt surges in 172 countries from 1980 to 2021, focusing on stock-flow adjustments (SFA)—discrepancies between annual debt changes and budget deficits. Using survival analysis methods, we find that a one percentage point increase in the SFA to GDP ratio raises the hazard rate of a debt surge by 16%, with stronger effects in advanced economies (28%) compared to emerging markets (15%). Conditional on an increasing debt trend, higher SFA significantly increase the probability of a debt spike materializing. We address potential self-selection with an IV approach based on fiscal transparency, emphasizing that accurate SFA estimates are critical for debt sustainability analysis and policy risk assessment. Our findings suggest policy measures to mitigate risks from hidden debt trajectories, including enhanced budgetary transparency, strengthened debt management, more effective fiscal rules, and comprehensive risk assessment frameworks.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47886,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Emerging Markets Review\",\"volume\":\"67 \",\"pages\":\"Article 101306\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-05-27\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Emerging Markets Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S156601412500055X\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Emerging Markets Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S156601412500055X","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

本文研究了从1980年到2021年172个国家公共债务激增的驱动因素，重点关注存量流量调整（SFA）——年度债务变化与预算赤字之间的差异。利用生存分析方法，我们发现，国家债务总额与GDP之比每提高一个百分点，债务激增的风险率就会提高16%，发达经济体（28%）的影响要强于新兴市场（15%）。在债务增长趋势的条件下，较高的SFA显著增加了债务峰值实现的可能性。我们通过基于财政透明度的IV方法解决潜在的自我选择问题，强调准确的SFA估计对债务可持续性分析和政策风险评估至关重要。我们的研究结果建议采取政策措施来降低隐性债务轨迹的风险，包括提高预算透明度、加强债务管理、更有效的财政规则和全面的风险评估框架。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Surges in the shadows: Stock-flow adjustments and public debt spikes

This paper investigates the drivers of public debt surges in 172 countries from 1980 to 2021, focusing on stock-flow adjustments (SFA)—discrepancies between annual debt changes and budget deficits. Using survival analysis methods, we find that a one percentage point increase in the SFA to GDP ratio raises the hazard rate of a debt surge by 16%, with stronger effects in advanced economies (28%) compared to emerging markets (15%). Conditional on an increasing debt trend, higher SFA significantly increase the probability of a debt spike materializing. We address potential self-selection with an IV approach based on fiscal transparency, emphasizing that accurate SFA estimates are critical for debt sustainability analysis and policy risk assessment. Our findings suggest policy measures to mitigate risks from hidden debt trajectories, including enhanced budgetary transparency, strengthened debt management, more effective fiscal rules, and comprehensive risk assessment frameworks.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Emerging Markets Review Multiple-

CiteScore

7.10

自引率

4.20%

发文量

审稿时长

100 days

期刊介绍： The intent of the editors is to consolidate Emerging Markets Review as the premier vehicle for publishing high impact empirical and theoretical studies in emerging markets finance. Preference will be given to comparative studies that take global and regional perspectives, detailed single country studies that address critical policy issues and have significant global and regional implications, and papers that address the interactions of national and international financial architecture. We especially welcome papers that take institutional as well as financial perspectives.