Journal of Forecasting最新文献

{"title":"Fire Prediction and Risk Identification With Interpretable Machine Learning","authors":"Shan Dai,&nbsp;Jiayu Zhang,&nbsp;Zhelin Huang,&nbsp;Shipei Zeng","doi":"10.1002/for.3266","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3266","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Fire safety is a primary concern in safeguarding lives and property. However, it is challenging to predict fire incidents and identify potential influencing factors due to limitations of data, model accuracy and interpretability. This paper proposes a novel scheme designed to enhance predictive and explainable capabilities by integrating multi-source data, adaptive machine learning methods, and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) tools for more effective and applicable fire safety management. The scheme shows satisfactory prediction results by leveraging the data from grid-style management systems and our proposed machine learning method with dynamic time warping distance-based time series clustering, significantly outperforming the methods merely based on time series modeling. Moreover, clustered features help to clarify the main influencing risk factors and provide clearer insights for model interpretability. With global SHAP, community clusters capturing community fire event frequency, as well as historical records on fire police rescue, smoke alarms, and fire alarms, are found to be significant risk factors among all the features over the whole communities and periods via the model interpretability analysis, implying that communities where fires used to occur frequently are more likely to occur in future, which should be highly vigilant in real fire management. With local SHAP, specific risk factors that vary across communities can be identified for any single community with a given period. We demonstrate the potential of this integrated machine learning scheme in improving the prediction accuracy and risk identification applicability of fire incidents, which contributes to more effective and customized fire safety management.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47835,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forecasting","volume":"44 5","pages":"1699-1715"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144525061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Localized Global Time Series Forecasting Models Using Evolutionary Neighbor-Aided Deep Clustering Method","authors":"Hossein Abbasimehr,&nbsp;Ali Noshad","doi":"10.1002/for.3263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3263","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Global forecasting models (GFMs) have become essential in time series prediction, as they enable cross-learning across multiple series. Although GFMs have consistently outperformed univariate approaches, their performance decreases when applied to heterogeneous time series datasets, such as those found in economic and financial applications. Clustering techniques have been used to create homogeneous time series clusters. However, the main limitations of current clustering-based GFMs are as follows: (1) employing handcrafted features instead of deep learning and (2) there is no guarantee that the resulting clusters are optimal in terms of prediction accuracy. To address these limitations, we propose a novel deep time series clustering model that jointly optimizes clustering and forecasting accuracy. The proposed method simultaneously optimizes the reconstruction, clustering, and prediction losses to ensure clusters are optimized for accurate forecasting. In addition, it employs a neighbor-aided autoencoder to capture cluster-oriented representations, leveraging neighboring time series to improve feature learning. Furthermore, we incorporate an evolutionary learning component, which iteratively refines clusters through crossover and mutation to find optimal clusters in terms of forecasting accuracy. We evaluate our proposed method on eight publicly available datasets considering various state-of-the-art forecasting benchmarks. Results indicate that across all datasets with 2620 time series, the proposed method obtains the lowest mean symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE) of 14.90, surpassing the baseline deep clustering (15.15). It exhibits enhancements of 1.28, 0.70, and 2.29 in mean sMAPE relative to DeepAR, N-BEATS, and transformer, respectively. Furthermore, it demonstrates improvements when compared to the existing clustering-based global models. The source code of the proposed clustering method is made publicly available at https://github.com/alinowshad/Evolutionary-Neighbor-Aided-Deep-Clustering-DEEPEN.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47835,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forecasting","volume":"44 5","pages":"1716-1733"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144525062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Deep Learning and Machine Learning Insights Into the Global Economic Drivers of the Bitcoin Price","authors":"Nezir Köse,&nbsp;Yunus Emre Gür,&nbsp;Emre Ünal","doi":"10.1002/for.3258","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3258","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines the connection between Bitcoin and global factors, including the VIX, the oil price, the US dollar index, the gold price, and interest rates estimated using the Federal funds rate and treasury securities rate, for forecasting analysis. Deep learning methodologies, including LSTM, GRU, CNN, and TFT, with machine learning algorithms such as XGBoost, LightGBM, and SVR, were employed to identify the optimal prediction model for the Bitcoin price. The findings indicate that the TFT model is the most successful predictive approach, with the gold price identified as the most relevant component in determining the Bitcoin price. After the gold indicator, the US dollar index was a substantial factor in the explanation of the Bitcoin price. The TFT model also included regulatory decisions and global events. It was estimated that the Bitcoin price was significantly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic. After that, global climate events and China mining ban strongly affected the Bitcoin price. These findings indicate that regulatory decisions and global events determine the Bitcoin price in addition to macroeconomic factors. The VAR analysis was employed as a robustness check. The results indicate that gold and oil prices have a strong negative influence on Bitcoin, particularly in the long term. The paper has significant policy implications for investors, portfolio managers, and scholars.</p>","PeriodicalId":47835,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forecasting","volume":"44 5","pages":"1666-1698"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/for.3258","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144525197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Processes and Predictions in Ecological Models: Logic and Causality","authors":"Christian Damgaard","doi":"10.1002/for.3267","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3267","url":null,"abstract":"<p>To make credible ecological predictions for terrestrial ecosystems in a changing environment and increase our understanding of ecological processes, we need plant ecological models that can be fitted to spatial and temporal ecological data. Such models need to be based on a sufficient understanding of ecological processes to make credible predictions and account for the different sources of uncertainty. Here, I argue (1) for the use of structural equation models in a hierarchical framework with latent variables and (2) to specify whether our current knowledge of relationships among state variables may be categorized primarily as logical (empirical) or causal. Such models will help us to make continuous progress in our understanding of and ability to predict the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems and provide us with local predictions with a known degree of uncertainty that are useful for generating adaptive management plans. The hierarchical structural equation models I recommend are analogous to current general epistemological models of how knowledge is obtained.</p>","PeriodicalId":47835,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forecasting","volume":"44 5","pages":"1658-1665"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/for.3267","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144525097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling and Forecasting the CBOE VIX With the TVP-HAR Model","authors":"Wen Xu,&nbsp;Pakorn Aschakulporn,&nbsp;Jin E. Zhang","doi":"10.1002/for.3260","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3260","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study proposes the use of a heterogeneous autoregressive model with time-varying parameters (TVP-HAR) to model and forecast the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) volatility index (VIX). To demonstrate the superiority of the TVP-HAR model, we consider six variations of the model with different bandwidths and smoothing variables and include the constant-coefficient HAR model as a benchmark for comparison. We show that the TVP-HAR models could beat the HAR model with constant coefficients in modeling and forecasting VIX. Among the TVP-HAR models, the rule-of-thumb bandwidth would be better than the cross-validation bandwidth. Meanwhile, VIX futures-driven coefficients could also provide more accurate predictions and smaller capital losses than the other two variables. Overall, the VIX futures-driven coefficients TVP-HAR model with the rule-of-thumb bandwidth obtains the optimal result for investors in forecasting the market risks and shaping their hedging strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":47835,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forecasting","volume":"44 5","pages":"1638-1657"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/for.3260","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144524776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Policymaking in Periods of Structural Changes and Structural Breaks: Rolling Windows Revisited","authors":"Nikolaos Giannellis,&nbsp;Stephen G. Hall,&nbsp;Georgios P. Kouretas,&nbsp;George S. Tavlas,&nbsp;Yongli Wang","doi":"10.1002/for.3269","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3269","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Early studies that used rolling windows found it to be a useful forecasting technique. These studies were, by-and-large, based on pre-2000 data, which were nonstationary. Subsequent work, based on stationary data from the mid-1990s to 2020, has not been able to confirm that finding. However, this latter result may reflect the fact that there was relatively little structural instability between the mid-1990s and 2020: The data had become stationary. Following the series of shocks of the early 2020s, this is no longer the case because the shocks produced nonstationarity in the macroeconomic data, such as inflation. Consequently, rolling windows may again be a sensible way forward. The present study assesses this conjecture.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47835,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forecasting","volume":"44 3","pages":"851-855"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143565437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Potential Demand Forecasting for Steel Products in Spot Markets Using a Hybrid SARIMA-LSSVM Approach","authors":"Junting Huang,&nbsp;Ying Meng,&nbsp;Min Xiao,&nbsp;Chang Liu,&nbsp;Yun Dong","doi":"10.1002/for.3259","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3259","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Compared to make-to-order production based on customer order, make-to-stock based on forecast can effectively reduce inventory level and production cost. However, due to high randomness of spot markets and many uncertainties in production environments, it is hard to forecast the products accurately. In this article, a hybrid model combining seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and least square support vector machines (LSSVMs) is proposed to forecast the potential demand of steel products. First, the SARIMA based on a multiobjective differential evolution with improved mutation strategies is developed to extract linear components of the potential demand. Then, a sparse strategy is designed to extract useful data and hence reduce computation complexity without loss of accuracy. Next, the LSSVMs combined with a single-objective differential evolution are adopted to extract nonlinear components of the potential demand. Finally, the experimental results on a real-world instance demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47835,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forecasting","volume":"44 5","pages":"1623-1637"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144525117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forecasting the Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Using Modal Regression","authors":"Xin Jing,&nbsp;Jin Seo Cho","doi":"10.1002/for.3261","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3261","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study utilizes modal regression to forecast the cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases in Canada, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. The objective is to improve the accuracy of the forecasts compared to standard mean and median regressions. To evaluate the performance of the forecasts, we conduct simulations and introduce a metric called the coverage quantile function (CQF), which is optimized using modal regression. By applying modal regression to popular time-series models for COVID-19 data, we provide empirical evidence that the forecasts generated by the modal regression outperform those produced by the mean and median regressions in terms of the CQF. This finding addresses the limitations of the mean and median regression forecasts.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47835,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forecasting","volume":"44 4","pages":"1578-1601"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144207046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trading VIX on Volatility Forecasts: Another Volatility Puzzle?","authors":"Stavros Degiannakis,&nbsp;Panagiotis Delis,&nbsp;George Filis,&nbsp;George Giannopoulos","doi":"10.1002/for.3257","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3257","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study evaluates the economic usefulness of stock market implied volatility forecasts, based on their ability to improve the short-run trading decision-making process. The current literature aligns the forecast horizon with the frequency of the trading decision in order to evaluate different forecasting frameworks. By contrast, the premise of our paper is that these should not be necessarily related, but rather the evaluation should be based on the actual needs of the end-user. Thus, we evaluate whether the multiple days ahead stock market volatility forecasts vis-à-vis the 1-day ahead forecasts can improve the 1-day ahead trading profits from VIX and the S&amp;P500 futures. Our results suggest that indeed the 1-day ahead trading profits are significantly improved when the trading decisions are based on longer term volatility forecasts. More specifically, the highest trading gains are obtained when using the 22-day ahead forecasts. The results hold true for both VIX and S&amp;P500 futures day-ahead trading. Although there is no theoretical background regarding the fact that forecasting and trading horizons should not be aligned, we strongly motivate this potential issue, both from the statistical and financial points of view.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47835,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forecasting","volume":"44 4","pages":"1602-1618"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144207047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Common Shocks and Climate Risk in European Equities","authors":"Andrea Cipollini,&nbsp;Fabio Parla","doi":"10.1002/for.3256","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3256","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We examine the contribution of a shock to climate concern to the observed outperformance of a portfolio of European green stocks relative to a brown benchmark. We show, first, that an information set given by 1-month stock return and realized volatility of each stock constituent (and their cross-sectional averages) improves the (in-sample) forecasting performance for the return series relative to the traditional market risk factors proxied by Fama–French portfolios. Moreover, the identification of the shock to climate concern occurs in two stages: First, we compute the historical decomposition based on a Panel SVAR fitted to the return and volatility of each green and brown portfolio constituent. Then, the contribution of the first common shock to the historical decomposition of returns is purged of macroeconomic forecast errors, and the residual is interpreted as the innovation to climate concern. The empirical evidence is robust to a number of different selections of stocks entering the green and brown portfolio.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47835,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forecasting","volume":"44 3","pages":"1165-1192"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143564589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}