A multi‐objective optimization metaheuristic hybrid technique for forecasting the electricity consumption of the UAE: A grey wolf approach

IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Andreas Karathanasopoulos, Chia Chun Lo, Mitra Sovan, Mohamed Osman, Hans‐Jörg von Mettenheim, Slim Skander
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

By implementing a multi‐objective optimization approach in forecasting, we introduce three optimization models grey wolf optimizer, genetic algorithm, and differential evolution algorithm combined with multilayer perceptron neural networks and support vector machines to predict electricity consumption in the UAE. The hybrid models' accuracy and efficiency were evaluated using various forecasting metrics. This study's contributions are threefold: it is the first to employ such a sophisticated hybrid approach, particularly using the recently introduced grey wolf optimizer, it compares optimization techniques with the established Pearson correlation‐based method for dimensionality reduction and it represents one of the most extensive macroeconomic forecasts in the UAE using multi‐objective heuristic hybrid optimization methods. Our findings indicate that the grey wolf optimizer significantly outperforms all other models, followed by the genetic algorithm.
预测阿联酋用电量的多目标优化元启发式混合技术:灰狼方法
通过在预测中采用多目标优化方法,我们引入了灰狼优化器、遗传算法和差分进化算法这三种优化模型,并结合多层感知器神经网络和支持向量机来预测阿联酋的用电量。使用各种预测指标对混合模型的准确性和效率进行了评估。本研究有三方面的贡献:首次采用了如此复杂的混合方法,特别是使用了最近推出的灰狼优化器;将优化技术与基于皮尔逊相关性的既定降维方法进行了比较;使用多目标启发式混合优化方法对阿联酋的宏观经济进行了最广泛的预测。我们的研究结果表明,灰狼优化器明显优于所有其他模型,其次是遗传算法。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
5.90%
发文量
91
期刊介绍: The Journal of Forecasting is an international journal that publishes refereed papers on forecasting. It is multidisciplinary, welcoming papers dealing with any aspect of forecasting: theoretical, practical, computational and methodological. A broad interpretation of the topic is taken with approaches from various subject areas, such as statistics, economics, psychology, systems engineering and social sciences, all encouraged. Furthermore, the Journal welcomes a wide diversity of applications in such fields as business, government, technology and the environment. Of particular interest are papers dealing with modelling issues and the relationship of forecasting systems to decision-making processes.
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