{"title":"Risk spillovers among oil, gold, stock, and foreign exchange markets: Evidence from G20 economies","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102249","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102249","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper investigates the tail risk spillover effects among the stock and foreign exchange markets of G20 economies, as well as the oil and gold markets by constructing a tail event driven network. Adjacency matrices indicate time-varying connectedness between network nodes. The systemic risk decomposition results highlight the predominant contribution of stock markets to the aggregate risk level, while oil, gold, and specific currencies such as JPY, USD, and CNY contribute to diversifying systemic risk. Moreover, tail event driven network quantile regression analysis demonstrates the asymmetry and market heterogeneity of risk spillover effects. Our findings have instructive implications for financial regulators and institutional investors.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141864982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Yield curve trading strategies exploiting sentiment data","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102226","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102226","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper builds upon previous research findings that show macro sentiment data-augmented models are better at predicting the yield curve. We extend the dynamic Nelson–Siegel model with macro sentiment data from either Twitter or RavenPack. Vector autogressive (VAR) models and Markov-switching VAR models are used to predict changes in the shape of the yield curve. We build bond butterfly trading strategies that exploit our yield curve shape change predictions. We find that the economic returns from our trading strategies based upon models exploiting macro sentiment data do not statistically significantly differ from those which do not rely on it.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940824001517/pdfft?md5=ddd2acdba26d544c1d5ef2719d088247&pid=1-s2.0-S1062940824001517-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141864966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The comovement of bubbles’ responses to monetary policy shocks","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102244","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102244","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, we present a two-step methodology designed to elucidate the extent of co-movement in the behavior of asset bubbles across a selected group of developed and emerging economies, with observations extending from the year 2000 onwards. We characterize the behavior of these bubbles, conceptualized as the disparity between fundamental and market values, by examining their responses to monetary policy shocks. Our investigation into their co-movement dynamics post-2000 involves the estimation of a Bayesian Dynamic Factor Model that incorporates the reactions of asset bubbles to monetary policy shocks, both in the short term and the long term. Notably, our findings reveal a convergence in short-term responses among these bubbles prior to the onset of the financial crisis. However, as the crisis unfolded, our results indicate a shift towards divergence. Concerning the long-term response of bubbles to monetary policy, divergence was observed before the crisis, but once the crisis had taken hold, there was a noticeable trend towards convergence. An influential idiosyncratic factor was identified for countries like the United States, South Korea, and Japan, impacting both short-term and long-term behavior. Conversely, the long-term behavior of bubbles in most emerging economies appears to be influenced by idiosyncratic factors. Furthermore, our results largely maintain their robustness even when utilizing an alternative measure of monetary policy stance during the period of the zero lower bound. Nevertheless, this secondary analysis suggests heightened volatility in the factors affecting both emerging and advanced markets.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141780314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Dynamic linkages and contagion effects: Analyzing the linkages between crude oil prices, US market sector indices and energy markets","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102247","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102247","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper aims to assess the dynamic linkages between crude oil futures contracts, renewable energy indices, carbon credit futures indices and several US sector market indices by applying the DECO-GARCH model and the connectedness index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). The analysis is conducted on a daily data sample from August 2014 to February 2024 and performed at both the aggregated and disaggregated levels. The disaggregated analysis revealed that the correlation between the variables was lower before periods of stress, such as the COVID-19 crisis and the Russian–Ukrainian conflict as well as a complex correlation structure with a diverse mix of positive and negative values between different pairs of variables. Moreover, the static connectedness results in terms of returns underscore a significant degree of interconnection and transmission of shocks between oil prices and sector markets, renewable energy, and carbon credit futures indices. In addition, the results highlight the responsiveness of the clean energy and carbon credit sectors to global circumstances and economic conditions. The study concludes with a dynamic connectedness analysis, highlighting once again the intricate connections and interactions between all the variables, which are exacerbated during periods of market instability and key events. The net interconnectedness analysis demonstrated that changes in crude oil prices have a significant impact on most of the variables analyzed. The findings of this study have clear implications for a wide range of market participants, policy-makers, and individuals managing portfolios, particularly in terms of diversification opportunities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940824001724/pdfft?md5=32b278db1e87cb759e33d1c8f030077b&pid=1-s2.0-S1062940824001724-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141846918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Forecasting crude oil volatility and stock volatility: New evidence from the quantile autoregressive model","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102235","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102235","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper employs the quantile autoregressive (QAR) model to examine the forecasting relationship between stock volatility and crude oil volatility. We first utilize the sup-Wald test to evaluate Granger causality across various quantile levels, providing valuable information for forecasting. Our findings reveal that the causal effects between stock volatility and crude oil volatility differ considerably across different quantiles, with a V-shaped relationship evident at the quantile level. Results from out-of-sample forecasts indicate that the forecasting effect of oil volatility on stock volatility has both positive and negative impacts. In contrast, when using stock volatility to forecast crude oil volatility, predictability improves relative to the benchmark, particularly at more extreme quantiles. Further analysis highlights the necessity of forecast combinations to achieve an overall improvement in forecasting tasks.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141637719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Size and ESG premiums: Evidence from Chinese A-share market","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102246","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102246","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We examined environmental, social, and governance (ESG) pricing in the Chinese A-share market. The results indicate that, on average, investors holding stocks with high ESG scores do not earn higher abnormal returns. Conversely, stocks with low ESG scores perform better. In terms of ESG components, the ESG discount in the current Chinese A-share market is primarily manifested as a governance discount. On the other hand, we investigated the sources of ESG discounts. The findings reveal that the ESG discount is unrelated to most risk characteristic variables but is associated with size, liquidity, and investors’ ESG preferences, with size having the greatest impact. Based on our results, we suggested that for small-scale companies, investors may view good ESG performance as a signal of risk mitigation; for large-scale companies, good ESG performance may be viewed as a value signal.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141698443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Optimistic or pessimistic: How do investors impact the green bond market?","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102248","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102248","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the relationship between investor sentiment (IS) and the green bond market by employing bootstrap full- and sub-sample rolling-window Granger causality tests. The findings suggest a favourable impact of IS on the Green Bond Index (GBI), indicating that investors maintain an optimistic outlook on the bond market, thereby driving market expansion. This outcome is supported by the intertemporal capital asset pricing model, demonstrating an advantageous effect of IS on GBI. The beneficial and detrimental effects of GBI on IS indicate that investors is appropriate strategically modify their investment portfolios to adapt to marketplace instability. Amidst ongoing global economic and financial market uncertainties, green bonds have emerged as crucial assets for investors. Consequently, when shaping fiscal strategies, governments ought to consider the influence of IS in stimulating investor enthusiasm for green investments.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141701217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"ETFs amidst the COVID-induced technological transformation: Sectoral insights from time-varying dynamics of tail risk transmissions","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102243","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102243","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the tail risk transmissions across a diverse range of US commodity & tech-driven sector ETFs and the underlying US stock market by employing the CAViaR-based TVP-VAR methodology on daily data from January 01, 2019, to August 17, 2023. Findings reveal that Covid-19 triggered a notable surge in the total connectedness, consequently amplifying the tail risk transmissions within the system. Moreover, the S&P 500, AI&Robotics and fintech sector ETFs stand out as the primary risk transmitters, while cybersecurity and blockchain sector ETFs are risk receivers within the system, except for a notable shift during the peak of the pandemic. The pairwise results reveal limited risk transmissions between the S&P 500, AI&Robotics and fintech sector ETFs; however, both sector ETFs stand out as potential risk transmitters for the VIX index. In contrast to energy, agriculture and base metals sector ETFs, which are persistent risk receivers for both stock market indices and tech-driven sector ETFs, precious metals sector ETFs appear somewhat isolated and therefore offer a potential source of diversification among commodity sector ETFs. In sum, our findings offer valuable sectoral insights for effective risk management and portfolio diversification strategies in dynamic market conditions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141623219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Bara Kim , Jeongsim Kim , Hyungkuk Yoon , Jinyoung Lee
{"title":"Pricing of discretely sampled arithmetic Asian options, under the Hull–White interest rate model","authors":"Bara Kim , Jeongsim Kim , Hyungkuk Yoon , Jinyoung Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102239","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2024.102239","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper studies the pricing of discrete arithmetic Asian options (AAOs) with fixed strikes under the Hull–White interest rate model. For the pricing of AAOs, we first investigate the stochastic dynamics of the price of the underlying asset under the <span><math><mi>T</mi></math></span>-forward measure, and then study the distribution of the discrete arithmetic average of the underlying asset price. Specifically, we provide the first three moments of the discrete arithmetic average under the <span><math><mi>T</mi></math></span>-forward measure. Then, we derive approximate pricing formulas for AAOs using the three-moment matching method. Furthermore, we calculate the first three conditional moments of the discrete arithmetic average, given the final value of the underlying asset, under the <span><math><mi>T</mi></math></span>-forward measure. These conditional moments can be used to improve the accuracy of the approximation of the AAO prices. The numerical results show that our three-moment matching approximations are very accurate. Additionally, the accuracy can be further improved by combining the conditioning approach with the three-moment matching method. Our procedure is also applied to the computation of deltas of AAOs.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141606629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Valuing American options using multi-step rebate options","authors":"Hangsuck Lee , Hongjun Ha , Gaeun Lee , Minha Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.najef.2024.102227","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2024.102227","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The determination of optimal exercise boundaries is a critical aspect of pricing American options, which often requires costly numerical methods. This paper proposes a new approach that employs multi-step rebate options to approximate American option prices. Since the rebate options offer payoffs when the multi-step boundaries are touched, the prices of American options are estimated by maximizing the multi-step rebate option prices, and the optimal multi-step barriers replace the true optimal exercise boundaries. To this end, the closed-form pricing formulas for multi-step rebate options are derived and utilized to approximate several American option prices. Through extensive numerical experiments, we demonstrate the validity and performance of our approach.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47831,"journal":{"name":"North American Journal of Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141606631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}