Population Research and Policy Review最新文献

{"title":"An Evaluation of Projection Methods for Detailed Small Area Projections: An Application and Validation to King County, Washington","authors":"Neal Marquez, Xiaoqi Bao, Eileen Kazura, Jessica Lapham, Priya Sarma, Crystal Yu, Christine Leibbrand, Sara Curran","doi":"10.1007/s11113-023-09848-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-023-09848-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Population projections are used by a number of local agencies to better prepare for the future resource needs of counties, ensuring that educational, health, housing, and economic demands of individuals are met. Meeting the specific needs of a county’s population, such as what resources to provide, where to target resources, and ensure an equitable distribution of those resources, requires population projections which are both demographically detailed, such as by age, race, and ethnicity, and geographically precise, such as at the census tract level. Despite this need, an evaluation of which methods are best suited to produce population projections at this level are lacking. In this study, we evaluate the accuracy of several cohort-based methods for small area population projections by race and ethnicity. We apply these methods to population projections of King County, Washington and assess the validity of projections using past population estimates. We find a clear pattern that demonstrates while simplified methods perform well in near term forecasts, methods which employ smoothing strategies perform better in long-term forecasting scenarios. Furthermore, we demonstrate that model’s incorporating multiple stages of smoothing can provide detailed insights into the projected population size of King county and the places and groups which will most contribute to this growth. Detailed projections, such as those provided by multi-stage smoothing methods, enable city planners and policy makers a detailed view of the future structure of their county’s population and provide for them a resource to better meet the needs of future populations.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140018942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Giving Birth While Facing Death: Cesarean Sections and Community Violence in Latin America","authors":"Signe Svallfors","doi":"10.1007/s11113-023-09854-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-023-09854-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Armed conflict and organized crime are known to be linked to numerous negative maternal and neonatal health outcomes, such as stillbirth, low birth weight, and neonatal mortality. This study investigates how exposure to lethal community violence during pregnancy correlates with Cesarean births in Latin America, a region characterized by high rates of both C-sections and violence. The analysis combines micro-level survey data, covering 123,503 births, with subnational homicide statistics from Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, and Mexico. Region-fixed effects linear probability models were used to eliminate geographically varying omitted factors that could potentially confound exposure to violence and health conditions. The findings suggest that the high rates of C-sections in Latin America can partially be attributed to the high levels of violence, due to an increase in both medically unnecessary and emergency procedures. The relationship between exposure to community violence and C-section delivery varied by country, women’s socio-demographic characteristics, and the number of antenatal care visits. Exposure to violence during all trimesters correlated with the uptake of C-sections, indicating that violence negatively affects maternal and child health throughout pregnancy. This study enriches our understanding of the social determinants of maternal and child health. The findings can serve to inform comprehensive interventions aimed at reducing excess C-section rates and improving the health of women and newborns in areas affected by violence.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"171 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140010809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inheriting the Homeland? The Influence of Parental Origin-Country Fertility on Ideal Family Size and the Timing of Birth(s) Among the Children of Immigrants in France","authors":"Ka U Ng","doi":"10.1007/s11113-023-09846-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-023-09846-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>While fertility behaviors are converging among the children of immigrants in Western Europe, existing literature has paid little attention to whether their fertility ideals are still diverse and linked to their parental origin-country fertility. This paper develops a country-of-origin perspective to investigate whether parental origin-country fertility continues to be associated with childbirth attitudes and behaviors among the children of immigrants. The analysis draws on data on the ideal family size and the timing of birth(s) among the children of immigrants in France (Trajectories and Origins survey, TeO), which I link to data on parental origin-country fertility. Findings show that the origin-country fertility is associated with the ideal family size of the children of immigrants; however, they do not shape their timing of childbirth(s). Children of immigrants whose parents come from countries with higher fertility ideals aspire to larger ideal family sizes but do not have children earlier than those whose parents come from countries with lower fertility ideals. Consistent with previous studies, these findings suggest that the timing of births is converging among children of immigrants. However, their fertility ideals are still diverged and strongly influenced by their parental origin-country fertility.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140010807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Racial-Ethnic Disparities in Dyadic Pregnancy Intentions Preceding Births in the United States","authors":"Mónica L. Caudillo, Seungwan Kim, Jaein Lee, Jingwen Liu","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09860-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-024-09860-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Although racial-ethnic disparities in rates of births unintended by women have received substantial attention from demographers, little is known about the dyadic pregnancy intentions preceding the births of White, Black, and Hispanic women in the United States. We use birth records from the 2011–2013, 2013-2015, 2015–2017, and 2017–2019 waves of the National Survey of Family Growth to identify multiple types of agreement and disagreement in the pregnancy intentions of female and male co-conceivers around the time of conception, and assess racial-ethnic disparities in the prevalence of each of these scenarios. Our results showed that while 55% of births in the US were intended by both sex partners, 19% were unintended by both, and 26% were conceived in a context of dyadic disagreement over pregnancy intentions. Net of demographic and family trajectory characteristics, Black and Hispanic women’s births were more likely to be the product of disagreement, where the conception was unintended for women but intended for their male sex partners. In particular, Black women had the highest probability of experiencing births that were unwanted for them but intended for their male co-conceivers. Our findings highlight the importance of measuring and assessing dyadic pregnancy intentions to understand key racial-ethnic differences in the circumstances leading to conceptions, and their potential implications for child, parental, and family wellbeing.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139923168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Protracted Chains of Violence: How Chronic Conflict and Displacement Structure Intimate Partner Violence at the Thailand-Myanmar Border","authors":"Stephanie M. Koning","doi":"10.1007/s11113-023-09855-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-023-09855-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Conflict and displacement exacerbate violence against women, including intimate partner violence (IPV). Considering the rising prevalence and duration of conflict-displacement, how violence follows women through chains of related events and contexts, including across generations, demands attention and action. The current study investigates how conflict-displacement contributes to IPV across generations of displacement at the Thailand-Myanmar border, a particularly informative setting for understanding displacement histories. Analyzing survey interview data from 534 women in a population-based survey of two border subdistricts, it investigates evidence of theoretical perspectives informed by trauma, social violence, and social disorganization. Analyses compare IPV and social fear responses by displacement generation, and test potential mediators of IPV differences tied to each theoretical perspective using logistic regression-based effect decomposition. Among first-generation women with more proximate conflict exposure, both legacy effects of past social and individual trauma, and adverse effects of displacement circumstances, emerge. Meanwhile, second-generation women experienced the highest IPV odds, suggesting that violence and displacement have an enduring impact but through mechanisms unmeasured in the current study. Both first- and second-generation women demonstrate navigating everyday violence through social vigilance. Both these groups demonstrate general social fear that aligns with IPV prevalence while also demonstrating individual blunted fear responses to direct victimization, i.e., relatively low reported fear among women with a violent partner, a coping mechanism symptomatic of trauma. Findings warrant greater attention to trauma and structurally violent displacement contexts that persist long term. When unaddressed, these likely exacerbate IPV in ways unexplained by cultural norms, direct conflict, or displacement alone.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139923330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Family Member Deaths and the Risk of Obesity Among American Young Adults","authors":"Kaitlin Shartle, Robert A. Hummer, Debra J. Umberson","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09857-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-024-09857-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The death of a family member is a stressful life event that undermines survivors’ health. However, most research in this area focuses on spousal deaths among older, white adults. This paper uses data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health to examine the association between the death of a range of family members and obesity among diverse American adults aged 33–43. One-third of U.S. young adults report having experienced the death of one or more close family members, with Black adults experiencing these losses much more frequently than White or Hispanic adults. Results using logistic regression models show that the death of two or more family members is associated with higher odds of young adult obesity compared to those who have experienced no family member deaths by young adulthood. Further, findings suggest the relationship between the death of family members and obesity differs by race/ethnicity. The probability of obesity is uniformly around 50–55 percent for Black adults who experienced zero, one, or two or more family member deaths. Meanwhile, the probability of obesity among White adults is significantly higher for those who experienced two or more family member deaths compared to those who experienced zero or one death. In addition, we found no association between family member death and obesity among Hispanic adults, although statistical power is limited. All told, the findings point to family member death as a significant risk factor for obesity among young Americans.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139770148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sandwich Caregiving and Paid Work: Differences by Caregiving Intensity and Women’s Life Stage","authors":"Zohra Ansari-Thomas","doi":"10.1007/s11113-023-09852-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-023-09852-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Research shows pervasive connections between unpaid caregiving and labor market participation among women living in the United States. However, this research remains fragmented, often focusing on one type of care (i.e., care to children or adults) or a particular life stage (i.e., care provided in early- or later-adulthood). Given patterns of population longevity and later childbearing ages, demographic patterns of care are shifting. More women are exposed to overlapping child and adult caregiving responsibilities (“sandwich caregiving”) over the life course. This study uses data from the 2001, 2004, and 2008 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to examine connections between sandwich caregiving and labor market participation among a cohort of women aged 25–49 and a cohort of women aged 50–65. I also examine whether measures of child and adult care “intensity” relate to labor market participation among sandwich caregivers. Results show that sandwich caregivers, particularly women with young children and women providing high-intensity adult care, were among the least likely to be employed, and if employed, worked the fewest hours for pay. For women in the older cohort, labor market patterns may reflect early retirement for high-intensity caregivers. Given the startling lack of child and adult care support in the United States, findings have implications for family care, work, and retirement policies, and future research should explore the role of sandwich caregiving on gender, class, and racial inequality.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"44 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139680166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Immigrant Status and Hesitancy Toward the Use of Covid-19 Vaccines and Drug Treatments Developed for Children","authors":"Kevin J. A. Thomas","doi":"10.1007/s11113-023-09853-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-023-09853-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines the relationship between immigrant status in the United States and hesitancy toward the new COVID-19 vaccines and drug treatments developed for children. Using data from the 2022 COVID-19 in American Communities -2 survey, the analysis shows that, while vaccine hesitancy is less of a problem for immigrants than for US natives, hesitancy toward the new drug treatments between both groups is not statistically different. Moreover, it finds contrasting relationships between immigrants’ level of exposure to society and the two outcomes of interest. On the one hand, immigrants’ willingness to have their children vaccinated for COVID-19 declines as time in the US increases. On the other hand, after accounting for other factors, no declines in hesitancy about the use of the new COVID-19 drug treatments for infected children are observed with increasing time in the US. The analysis further shows that the relationship between exposure and both measures of hesitancy is partially shaped by mistrust. Thus, it suggests that mistrust of the COVID-19 vaccines has negative spillover effects on the possible use of the new drugs used for treating the virus among children.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"293 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139647468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Household Income by Nativity Status and Race/Ethnicity Across Metropolitan and Regional Contexts","authors":"Rachel Sparkman, Kathryn Harker Tillman","doi":"10.1007/s11113-023-09851-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-023-09851-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Since the 1990s, immigrants have been increasingly moving to rural areas of the U.S., yet we know little about the economic well-being of these immigrants as compared to their more urban peers. To fill this knowledge gap, we draw on both segmented assimilation and industrial restructuring approaches and use microdata data from the American Community Survey (ACS) 2019 5-year estimates (<i>n</i> = 10,536,645) to examine the household income of U.S.-born and foreign-born heads of households by metropolitan status, as well as the roles of race/ethnicity and regional location in conditioning the impact of nativity status on household income. Similar to Census reports on the urban–rural wealth gap (Shrider et al. in Income and poverty in the United States: 2020. United States Census Bureau. Washington, DC. https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2021/demo/p60-273.html, 2021), OLS regression results indicate that rural respondents tend to report significantly less income than their nonrural peers, however, there is significant variation by nativity status, racial/ethnic background, and regional location. On average, foreign-born respondents, racial/ethnic minorities, and respondents located in the South report lower household incomes than their peers. Racial/ethnic background has a greater influence on household income than does nativity status, however, especially in rural areas. Race/ethnicity also moderates the effects of nativity status, although somewhat differently depending on metropolitan location and region. Predicted estimates of household income by nativity and race/ethnicity show that, regardless of race/ethnicity, foreign-born individuals in urban areas tend to have household incomes that are slightly lower than or similar to those of their same-race U.S.-born peers, with the exception of Black immigrants, those who report having two or more races, and respondents who belong to the Other Race category who tend to have higher incomes. In rural areas, however, substantively meaningful nativity differentials in income are only apparent for Black respondents.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139516039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of COVID-19 on Medically Assisted Live Birth Rates in the United States in 2020 and 2021","authors":"Katherine Tierney, Ester Lazzari","doi":"10.1007/s11113-023-09849-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-023-09849-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Initial declines in births due to medically assisted reproduction (MAR) in December 2020 have been documented. However, the longer-term impact of COVID-19 on U.S. MAR birth rates has not yet been evaluated. Negative-binomial regression analyses were employed using counts of MAR births from the National Vital Statistics System and female population counts from the Current Population Survey as the exposure variable. Interaction terms were used to investigate whether trends varied by sociodemographic groups. The descriptive analyses showed sharp declines in the percentage of births due to MAR in December 2020 (1.05%) and January 2021 (1.08%). Multivariable negative-binomial regression showed the incident rates of MAR births were lower in December 2020 relative to all other periods with the exception of January 2021 (IRR = 0.97, 95% Confidence Interval: 0.77–1.22). Negative-binomial regression analyses with interaction terms found the decline and rebound in MAR births differed by educational attainment. Overall, however, the yearly incidence rates of MAR births in 2020 and 2021 were not different from rates from prior years (2017–2019). Thus, COVID-19 service suspension likely had a substantive effect on U.S. MAR birth rates, but this reduction quickly rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. This study extends prior research, which focused on data from 2020, and sheds further light on behavior related to MAR use and its potential demographic implications during the pandemic.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139500294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}