Growth and Change最新文献

The Future of European Regional Inequalities: Box-Cox Transformed ARMA Process Trend Smoothing (BATS) Forecasting

IF 2.9 3区经济学

Growth and Change Pub Date : 2025-03-20 DOI: 10.1111/grow.70031

Hasan Engin Duran, Zeynep Elburz, Burcu Değerli Çifçi

{"title":"The Future of European Regional Inequalities: Box-Cox Transformed ARMA Process Trend Smoothing (BATS) Forecasting","authors":"Hasan Engin Duran, Zeynep Elburz, Burcu Değerli Çifçi","doi":"10.1111/grow.70031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/grow.70031","url":null,"abstract":"The vast majority of the empirical studies on regional economic inequalities has analyzed the past evolutions, while the future trajectories are often ignored. Despite, no methods exist to predict the future precisely, it is worthwhile to shed light on the prospective tendencies in order to plan and formulate the policies at the present time. The current study addresses the following questions; Will regional convergence continue in Europe? Which regions will become more prosperous? What are the future determinants of regional growth? Our dataset covers 236 NUTS-2 regions belonging to the 28 European Countries for the period 2000–2022. In terms of methodology, we use a nonlinear forecasting technique BATS (“Box-Cox Transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal Components”) model and Spatial Durbin Regressions along with explorative maps and descriptive statistics. As an outcome of the analyses, we obtained several remarkable results. First, regional inequalities are expected to widen by 2050 indicating the evidence of regional divergence. Second, spatial poles of prosperity are likely to change substantially. Most of the regions belonging to the countries in the “Mediterranean Basin” are predicted to remain relatively backward while many Eastern European regions are expected to rise in prosperity. Northern and Central European regions are likely to keep their prosperous position. Third, several crucial determinants of future growth patterns are detected. It appeared that younger demographic profile, industrialization and cohesion policies (particularly for CEE regions) have become key factors of future growth performance.","PeriodicalId":47545,"journal":{"name":"Growth and Change","volume":"56 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/grow.70031","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143689263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Disentangling Regional Diversification: Identifying Theoretical and Empirical Challenges Through Complex Networks

IF 2.9 3区经济学

Growth and Change Pub Date : 2025-03-15 DOI: 10.1111/grow.70024

Henrry Morales, Miguel Atienza, Marcelo Lufin, Markus Grillitsch

引用次数: 0

Refugees' Settlement in Greece: Employment in Agriculture as a Criterion for an Alternative Dispersal Plan

IF 2.9 3区经济学

Growth and Change Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1111/grow.70030

Anastasia Blouchoutzi, Georgios Tsaples, Dimitra Manou, Jason Papathanasiou

{"title":"Refugees' Settlement in Greece: Employment in Agriculture as a Criterion for an Alternative Dispersal Plan","authors":"Anastasia Blouchoutzi, Georgios Tsaples, Dimitra Manou, Jason Papathanasiou","doi":"10.1111/grow.70030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/grow.70030","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the settlement of refugees in Greece from the perspective of employment in the agricultural sector and suggests an allocation scheme that could contribute to rural revitalization in the country. Since the demographic challenge and rural depopulation are long-term issues to be addressed by the Greek state, the authors argue that fast track vocational training and job matching between refugees and farmers could benefit the refugee population and secure the sustainability of agriculture in Greece. The empirical model offers an alternative approach to the allocation of refugees in Greek mainland, considering for their willingness to work in agriculture and the reactions of the natives toward them. The results confirm that the rich regions with migrant networks and agricultural production can absorb a large share of refugees in periods of crisis. The paper extends the literature on the agriculture-migration nexus in the EUMed with a case of refugee allocation under the lens of labor market integration and rural revitalization.","PeriodicalId":47545,"journal":{"name":"Growth and Change","volume":"56 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/grow.70030","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143594898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Administrative Mechanism Behind Sustainable Waste Disposal Practices: Evidence From State-Level Specific Authorities in Nigeria

IF 2.9 3区经济学

Growth and Change Pub Date : 2025-03-08 DOI: 10.1111/grow.70029

Dafeng Xu, Adler (Zheqi) Kang

{"title":"The Administrative Mechanism Behind Sustainable Waste Disposal Practices: Evidence From State-Level Specific Authorities in Nigeria","authors":"Dafeng Xu, Adler (Zheqi) Kang","doi":"10.1111/grow.70029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/grow.70029","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 Indiscriminate waste disposal practices—such as dumping waste in public spaces and burning waste at home—pose severe environmental threats. Yet, they are prevalent in Africa. In this paper, we study factors affecting household waste disposal in Nigeria using national survey data, focusing on the administrative mechanism, through which specific waste management authorities (rather than general environmental agencies) effectively promote the use of waste bins for sustainable disposal practices. This paper's statistical analysis presents four major conclusions: First, baseline estimates show correlational evidence that state-level specific waste management authorities are positively associated with sustainable waste disposal practices, conditional on household socioeconomic status. Second, this positive association between waste management authorities and sustainable waste disposal is largely absorbed after controlling for regional GDP or GDP per capita. Third, conditional on GDP (or GDP per capita), waste management authorities play a significant role in influencing waste disposal practices only in states with relatively low levels of GDP (or GDP per capita). Fourth, one important function of these specific waste management authorities is to lower the waste collection fee, so that households in some, although not all, states would be more able and willing to dispose of waste sustainably.\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47545,"journal":{"name":"Growth and Change","volume":"56 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143571378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Regional Specializations in Green Incumbents and Green Start-ups in the German Transport Sector

IF 2.9 3区经济学

Growth and Change Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1111/grow.70025

Hendrik Hansmeier, Sebastian Losacker, Johannes Bersch, Henning Kroll

引用次数: 0

Understanding the Catch-Up Innovation in China: A Perspective of Local Government Competition

IF 2.9 3区经济学

Growth and Change Pub Date : 2025-02-14 DOI: 10.1111/grow.70026

Jin Guo, Zhi Wei, Yingzhi Xu

{"title":"Understanding the Catch-Up Innovation in China: A Perspective of Local Government Competition","authors":"Jin Guo, Zhi Wei, Yingzhi Xu","doi":"10.1111/grow.70026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/grow.70026","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 This paper delves into the phenomenon of catch-up innovation in China, examining it through the institutional framework of local government innovation competition. Our theoretical modeling indicates that in order to perform well in performance appraisals and obtain a greater probability of promotion, local governments tend to implement excessive policy incentives, ultimately sparking an intense competition for innovation among regions in China. Empirical analyses corroborate the effectiveness of supportive policies in fostering local innovation. Nonetheless, excessive policy intervention has exhibited a propensity to stifle local innovation performance. In the spatial dimension, regional innovation competition demonstrates notable positive spatial effects, while the potential negative spatial effects of excessive competition have yet to emerge. By scrutinizing the influence of regional innovation competition on patent knowledge width and patent types, we conclude that regional innovation competition is unlikely to alleviate the issue of low-quality innovation in China. Consequently, this paper advocates for the urgent enhancement of the official evaluation system by incorporating indicators pertaining to innovation quality, thereby amplifying the positive impact of regional innovation competition on patent quality. Simultaneously, the official evaluation system should remain vigilant against the detrimental effects of excessive competition and facilitate the transition from regional innovation competition to regional innovation cooperation through the optimization of local government behavior.\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47545,"journal":{"name":"Growth and Change","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143404431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Regulation and Restructuring in the Craft Brewing Industry

IF 2.9 3区经济学

Growth and Change Pub Date : 2025-02-10 DOI: 10.1111/grow.70023

Gavin Wood, Declan Martin

{"title":"Regulation and Restructuring in the Craft Brewing Industry","authors":"Gavin Wood, Declan Martin","doi":"10.1111/grow.70023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/grow.70023","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the relationship between regulatory settings and differences in the development of craft brewing industries across regions. We argue that changes in consumption-focused regulations have impacted production in the craft brewing industry. Drawing on a comparative case study of two Australian states, we also demonstrate how growth and development vary across jurisdictions with different regulatory approaches to the distribution and sale of alcohol. Specifically, we find three dimensions of liquor licensing strongly influence industry outcomes: (1) the timing of regulatory interventions; (2) their flexibility regarding the sale, distribution and consumption of alcohol; and (3) their intersection with national competition policy. Early licensing reforms in Victoria during the 1980s catalysed new independent brewery formation by facilitating the emergence of new types of licenced premises to compete with hotels. This intervention lowered barriers to entry for craft brewers. In the 2010s, more flexible producers' licences were introduced that allowed on-site sale and consumption of beer. Currently, intersecting liquor and competition policy settings are reshaping the craft brewing industry by enabling consolidation of liquor retailing. Our research offers an institutional interpretation of the rapid growth in craft brewing that broadens a literature primarily focussed on organisational and cultural factors.","PeriodicalId":47545,"journal":{"name":"Growth and Change","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/grow.70023","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143380668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Multidimensional Approach to Innovation in the United States and Turkey

IF 2.9 3区经济学

Growth and Change Pub Date : 2025-02-07 DOI: 10.1111/grow.70028

Bilge Armatlı Köroğlu, Neil Reid

{"title":"The Multidimensional Approach to Innovation in the United States and Turkey","authors":"Bilge Armatlı Köroğlu, Neil Reid","doi":"10.1111/grow.70028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/grow.70028","url":null,"abstract":"The main purpose of this study is to identify the dimensions of innovation in the U.S. and Turkey. Although there is an extensive literature on traditional determinants of innovation, they only explain a limited part of the innovation process and are insufficient to describe the complex nature of the innovation ecosystem. Moreover, in this ecosystem, seeing innovation as a part of creativity and learning processes requires a broader framework for understanding it. This study argues that a multidimensional approach, including the dimensions of creativity, is needed to understand innovation across regions. Thus, factor analysis is used to explore innovation dimensions. Seventeen variables including industrial specialization, population, human capital, entrepreneurship, income, social and cultural activities, enplanement, international migration, and crime rates are reduced to five factors in the cases of the U.S. and Turkey. As a result, the five factors reflecting the similarities between the U.S. and Turkey offer a new perspective, providing a multidimensional approach to regional innovation. In addition, the results of the study reveal that regions in each country innovate in different ways and each region requires a different mix of innovation dimensions and also policy measures.","PeriodicalId":47545,"journal":{"name":"Growth and Change","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/grow.70028","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143362577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unemployment Polarisation and Club Convergence in Türkiye

IF 2.9 3区经济学

Growth and Change Pub Date : 2025-02-04 DOI: 10.1111/grow.70027

Burhan Can Karahasan

{"title":"Unemployment Polarisation and Club Convergence in Türkiye","authors":"Burhan Can Karahasan","doi":"10.1111/grow.70027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/grow.70027","url":null,"abstract":"Turkish economy has undergone massive transformation during the 2000s. Annual economic growth reached a peak of 10% in the early 2000s. However, the side effects of global financial crises and the internal macroeconomic imbalances shift the growth trajectory of Türkiye into a new path of unstable economic growth. While macroeconomic consequences are densely discussed we know less about the adjustment of local labour markets. To fill this gap, we examine the club formation of Turkish regions by analysing their unemployment trajectories during the post 2000s. Our findings show that despite rapid economic growth Turkish regions get extremely polarised and form distinct convergence clubs. Remarkably polarisation is higher for the female population. Geographically, polarisation is in the form of an isolation for the least developed south-eastern regions and some of the developed urbanised western regions. Additionally, our robustness exercises indicate higher polarisation after 2013 as Turkish economic growth starts to become more volatile and less sustainable. Finally, our spatial extensions show that impact of spatial proximity has significant influence on the accurate extent of unemployment deprivation.","PeriodicalId":47545,"journal":{"name":"Growth and Change","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/grow.70027","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143111673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Forms of Innovation and the Core-Periphery Divide: (Non-) Technological Innovation and Geo-Remoteness in Israel

IF 2.9 3区经济学

Growth and Change Pub Date : 2025-01-15 DOI: 10.1111/grow.70019

Emil Israel, Eyal Salinger

{"title":"Forms of Innovation and the Core-Periphery Divide: (Non-) Technological Innovation and Geo-Remoteness in Israel","authors":"Emil Israel, Eyal Salinger","doi":"10.1111/grow.70019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/grow.70019","url":null,"abstract":"Scholarly interest in innovation in the periphery has recently grown, along with the prevalence of studies investigating different forms of innovation. Given the relative paucity of research in these fields, this study aims to examine the probability of technological and non-technological innovation in peripheral areas, compared to core regions. Drawing on a sample of over 3800 Israeli firms, we analyzed how their peripheral geographic location impacts their chances to innovate, in comparison to firms in Israel's core regions. The results showed that the probabilities to technologically innovate in most of the defined peripheries significantly exceed the probabilities in the core. Those probabilities decrease with the region's increasing peripherality. Peripheral firms that do tend to technologically innovate were found to be deeply embedded in their region's economy. Unlike technological innovation, peripheries' non-technological innovation activity was found to benefit from urban agglomerations that endow local economies with an (technological) innovative buzz. The results have policy implications for the promotion of regional economic growth.","PeriodicalId":47545,"journal":{"name":"Growth and Change","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/grow.70019","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143115315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0