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Decision-making under risk: when is utility-maximization equivalent to risk-minimization? 风险下的决策：何时效用最大化等同于风险最小化？
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Theory and Decision Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.1007/s11238-023-09969-1
Francesco Ruscitti, Ram Sewak Dubey, Giorgio Laguzzi
{"title":"Decision-making under risk: when is utility-maximization equivalent to risk-minimization?","authors":"Francesco Ruscitti, Ram Sewak Dubey, Giorgio Laguzzi","doi":"10.1007/s11238-023-09969-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-023-09969-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Motivated by the analysis of a general optimal portfolio selection problem, which encompasses as special cases an optimal consumption and an optimal debt-arrangement problem, we are concerned with the questions of how a personality trait like risk-perception can be formalized and whether the two objectives of utility-maximization and risk-minimization can be both achieved simultaneously. We address these questions by developing an axiomatic foundation of preferences for which utility-maximization is equivalent to minimizing a utility-based shortfall risk measure. Our axiomatization hinges on a novel axiom in decision theory, namely the risk-perception axiom.</p>","PeriodicalId":47535,"journal":{"name":"Theory and Decision","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139065843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A two-step guessing game 两步猜谜游戏
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Theory and Decision Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.1007/s11238-023-09967-3
King King Li, Kang Rong
{"title":"A two-step guessing game","authors":"King King Li, Kang Rong","doi":"10.1007/s11238-023-09967-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-023-09967-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We propose a two-step guessing game to measure the depth of thinking. We apply this method to the P beauty contest game. Using our method, we find that 81% of subjects do not make choice following best response reasoning while the classical method would suggest only 12%. The result suggests that the classical method has the fundamental problem that it cannot distinguish if a submitted number is due to best response reasoning or not. It also suggests that traditional level <i>k</i> analysis falsely attributes some sophistication to random players, and that the degree of false attribution is large. Our procedure provides an alternative way to identify whether the individual has best response reasoning which is essential for any positive level of depth of thinking and differentiates between the depth of thinking and random choice, and hence provides a very different conclusion, which is suggestive of limitations of the classical method.</p>","PeriodicalId":47535,"journal":{"name":"Theory and Decision","volume":"258 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139065851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quasi-separable preferences 准分离偏好
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Theory and Decision Pub Date : 2023-12-26 DOI: 10.1007/s11238-023-09962-8
Wei-zhi Qin, Hendrik Rommeswinkel
{"title":"Quasi-separable preferences","authors":"Wei-zhi Qin, Hendrik Rommeswinkel","doi":"10.1007/s11238-023-09962-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-023-09962-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Utility functions often lack additive separability, presenting an obstacle for decision theoretic axiomatizations. We address this challenge by providing a representation theorem for utility functions of quasi-separable preferences of the form <span>(u(x,y,z)=f(x,z) + g(y,z))</span> on subsets of topological product spaces. These functions are additively separable only when holding <i>z</i> fixed but are cardinally comparable for different values of <i>z</i>. We then generalize the result to spaces with more than three dimensions and provide applications to belief elicitation, inequity aversion, intertemporal choice, and rank-dependent utility.</p>","PeriodicalId":47535,"journal":{"name":"Theory and Decision","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139052995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Expected utility, independence, and continuity 预期效用、独立性和连续性
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Theory and Decision Pub Date : 2023-12-26 DOI: 10.1007/s11238-023-09964-6
Kemal Ozbek
{"title":"Expected utility, independence, and continuity","authors":"Kemal Ozbek","doi":"10.1007/s11238-023-09964-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-023-09964-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper, we provide two novel expected utility theorems by suitably adjusting the independence and continuity axioms. Our first theorem characterizes expected utility preferences using weak versions of the independence axiom (with varying mixture weights) and a new weak continuity axiom. Our second theorem characterizes these preferences using weaker versions of the independence axiom (with mixture weights fixed at 1/2) and a strong topological continuity axiom. We provide useful examples to illustrate the tightness of these characterizations.</p>","PeriodicalId":47535,"journal":{"name":"Theory and Decision","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139052912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Belief inducibility and informativeness 信念的诱导性和信息性
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Theory and Decision Pub Date : 2023-12-24 DOI: 10.1007/s11238-023-09963-7
P. Jean-Jacques Herings, Dominik Karos, Toygar T. Kerman
{"title":"Belief inducibility and informativeness","authors":"P. Jean-Jacques Herings, Dominik Karos, Toygar T. Kerman","doi":"10.1007/s11238-023-09963-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-023-09963-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We consider a group of receivers who share a common prior on a finite state space and who observe private correlated messages that are contingent on the true state of the world. Our focus lies on the beliefs of receivers induced via the signal chosen by the sender and we provide a comprehensive analysis of the inducible distributions of posterior beliefs. Classifying signals as minimal, individually minimal, and language-independent, we show that any inducible distribution can be induced by a language-independent signal. We investigate the role of the different classes of signals for the amount of higher order information that is revealed to receivers. The least informative signals that induce a fixed distribution over posterior belief profiles lie in the relative interior of the set of all language-independent signals inducing that distribution.</p>","PeriodicalId":47535,"journal":{"name":"Theory and Decision","volume":"193 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139036880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Individual selection criteria for optimal team composition 优化团队组成的个人选择标准
IF 0.8 4区 经济学
Theory and Decision Pub Date : 2023-12-23 DOI: 10.1007/s11238-023-09960-w
Lu Hong, Scott E. Page
{"title":"Individual selection criteria for optimal team composition","authors":"Lu Hong, Scott E. Page","doi":"10.1007/s11238-023-09960-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-023-09960-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper, we derive necessary and sufficient conditions on team based tasks in order for a <i>selection criterion</i> applied to individuals to produce optimal teams. We assume only that individuals have types and that a team’s performance depends on its size and the type composition of its members. We first derive <i>the selection principle</i> which states that if a selection criterion exists, it must rank types by <i>homogeneous team performance</i>, the performance of a team consisting only of that type. We then prove that a selection criterion exists if and only if replacing the team’s lowest ranked type, as measured by homogeneous team performance, with a higher ranked type increases team performance. Finally, we show that the replace the lowest ranked property rules out most common types of team complementarities, including benefits to diverse types and types that fill structural holes.</p>","PeriodicalId":47535,"journal":{"name":"Theory and Decision","volume":"62 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139029859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Gender differences in temporal stability and decay in stability of trust 时间稳定性的性别差异与信任稳定性的衰退
4区 经济学
Theory and Decision Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11238-023-09957-5
Hamza Umer
{"title":"Gender differences in temporal stability and decay in stability of trust","authors":"Hamza Umer","doi":"10.1007/s11238-023-09957-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-023-09957-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47535,"journal":{"name":"Theory and Decision","volume":"4 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135935998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Independent postulates for subjective expected utility 主观期望效用的独立假设
4区 经济学
Theory and Decision Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.1007/s11238-023-09959-3
Mikko Harju, Juuso Liesiö, Kai Virtanen
{"title":"Independent postulates for subjective expected utility","authors":"Mikko Harju, Juuso Liesiö, Kai Virtanen","doi":"10.1007/s11238-023-09959-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-023-09959-3","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Although the subjective expected utility (SEU) theory is more than 60 years old, it was recently discovered by Hartmann (Econometrica 88(1):203–205, 2020, https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA17428 ) that one of the original seven postulates is redundant, i.e., it is implied by the other six postulates. In this brief communication, we show that this redundant axiom is the only one that is implied by the other axioms, thereby establishing that the remaining six postulates form an independent axiomatic system. This result further streamlines the preference assumptions underlying the SEU theory.","PeriodicalId":47535,"journal":{"name":"Theory and Decision","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135405645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cost-(in)effective public good provision: an experimental exploration 成本(在)有效的公共物品提供:一个实验性的探索
4区 经济学
Theory and Decision Pub Date : 2023-10-20 DOI: 10.1007/s11238-023-09956-6
Nathan W. Chan, Stephen Knowles, Ronald Peeters, Leonard Wolk
{"title":"Cost-(in)effective public good provision: an experimental exploration","authors":"Nathan W. Chan, Stephen Knowles, Ronald Peeters, Leonard Wolk","doi":"10.1007/s11238-023-09956-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-023-09956-6","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper investigates the determinants of cost-(in)effective giving to public goods. We conduct a pre-registered experiment to elucidate how factors at the institutional and individual levels shape individual contributions and the cost-effectiveness of those contributions in a novel public good game. In particular, we examine the role of consequential uncertainty over the value of public good contributions (institutional level) as well as individual characteristics like risk and ambiguity attitudes, giving type, and demographics (individual level). We find cost-ineffective contributions in all institutions, but total contribution levels and the degree of cost-ineffectiveness are similar across institutions. Meanwhile, cost-effectiveness varies by giving type—which is a novel result that is consistent with hypotheses we generate from theory—but other individual characteristics have little influence on the cost-effectiveness of contributions. Our work has important positive and normative implications for charitable giving and public good provision in the real world, and it is particularly germane to emerging online crowdfunding and patronage platforms that confront users with a multitude of competing opportunities for giving.","PeriodicalId":47535,"journal":{"name":"Theory and Decision","volume":"82 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135513780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Characterization of a k-th best element rationalizable choice function with full domain 满域第k个最优元可理性化选择函数的表征
4区 经济学
Theory and Decision Pub Date : 2023-10-20 DOI: 10.1007/s11238-023-09958-4
Taposik Banerjee
{"title":"Characterization of a k-th best element rationalizable choice function with full domain","authors":"Taposik Banerjee","doi":"10.1007/s11238-023-09958-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-023-09958-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47535,"journal":{"name":"Theory and Decision","volume":"176 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135570262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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