JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS最新文献_第2页

Technology innovations and product rollover strategies: A real options approach 技术创新和产品展期策略：实物期权方法

IF 3.4

JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2025.106273

Verena Hagspiel , Kuno J.M. Huisman , Peter M. Kort , Cláudia Nunes , Rita Pimentel

{"title":"Technology innovations and product rollover strategies: A real options approach","authors":"Verena Hagspiel , Kuno J.M. Huisman , Peter M. Kort , Cláudia Nunes , Rita Pimentel","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconbus.2025.106273","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconbus.2025.106273","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As technological innovations emerge, firms with the capacity to invest in new products must determine the optimal timing for such investments and decide the future of their existing products. Upon deciding to invest in the innovative product, the firm faces a choice: a single rollover, replacing the established product entirely, or a dual rollover, where the firm produces both products temporarily before eventually phasing out the established one. This paper presents a theoretical framework to evaluate the optimal timing and product rollover strategies in response to technological progress.</div><div>Technological advancements enhance the quality of the latest available technology over time, implying that later investments yield higher-quality products. This dynamic creates a strategic tradeoff: investing early offers immediate but modest profit gains, while waiting leads to potentially larger payoffs due to the superior quality of later innovations. However, delaying investment means the firm must continue with the established product for a longer period.</div><div>Our findings indicate that a highly uncertain economic environment encourages firms to delay discontinuing the established product. In contrast, a more volatile innovative market prompts earlier entry provided the firm maintains some presence in the established market. Furthermore, if initial demand in the innovative market is low, higher product quality becomes essential for product innovation to be viable. We also show that a higher interest rate makes the firm more inclined to choose a single rollover strategy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47522,"journal":{"name":"JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS","volume":"137 ","pages":"Article 106273"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145584447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Target zones on firm’s value 目标以公司价值为基础

IF 3.4

JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2025.106275

Massimiliano Marzo

引用次数: 0

Managing agriculture commodity price uncertainty with crop switching: A real options approach 用作物转换管理农产品价格的不确定性：一种实物期权方法

IF 3.4

JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2025.106270

Carlos L. Bastian-Pinto , Luiz G. Bastian , Luiz E. Brandão , Luis Manfredini Hernandez Requejo , Glaucia Fernandes Vasconcelos

{"title":"Managing agriculture commodity price uncertainty with crop switching: A real options approach","authors":"Carlos L. Bastian-Pinto , Luiz G. Bastian , Luiz E. Brandão , Luis Manfredini Hernandez Requejo , Glaucia Fernandes Vasconcelos","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconbus.2025.106270","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconbus.2025.106270","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Investments in agricultural ventures are subject to significant risks due to market price uncertainty. We propose a strategy for farmers to maximize their financial returns and reduce risk based on their capacity to switch crops annually by taking advantage of each crop’s price volatility. We use the real options approach (ROA) to determine the value and risk of annual crop switches in the Brazilian agricultural sector. Four annual crops are selected (soybeans, cotton, corn, and wheat), and their prices are modeled using a mean-reverting stochastic process. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to estimate the value added by crop switching flexibility over a 10-year planting period considering a typical medium-size farm in Brazil. We only consider market price uncertainty for crop switching decisions and assume that such switching can be exercised at zero cost. Results indicate that the option to switch crops annually adds significant value and reduces producers’ financial risk. A lower price correlation between different crop prices yields a greater effect on the value of the crop switching option. Financial valuation of agricultural activity is significant, particularly if it follows a strategy that farmers can easily manage. Quantifying this strategy using the ROA constitutes hedging for farmers who face price volatility risk. To the best of our knowledge, the association of multiple crop choices to price dynamics using the ROA is a novel approach that will enrich the existing literature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47522,"journal":{"name":"JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS","volume":"137 ","pages":"Article 106270"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145584450","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Valuing oil reserve volumes under price uncertainty 在价格不确定的情况下评估石油储量

IF 3.4

JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2025.106277

Marco Antonio Guimarães Dias , Roberto Evelim Penha Borges

{"title":"Valuing oil reserve volumes under price uncertainty","authors":"Marco Antonio Guimarães Dias , Roberto Evelim Penha Borges","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconbus.2025.106277","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconbus.2025.106277","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Petroleum reserve is defined as the economically recoverable volume given a capital in place. As an economic concept, the reserve volume is determined by the abandonment decision, with the oil price being a key factor. We estimate the oil reserve volume under oil price uncertainty using the real options (RO) approach. We highlight the similarities and differences between this real abandonment option and the financial put. We compare RO results with discounted cash flow (DCF) results from intuitive and quantitative perspectives. DCF uses expected cash flow to report the value and volume of reserves until the economic life of an oilfield ends (abandonment). RO makes the uncertainty explicit, and the <em>ex-post</em> application of the RO abandonment rule implies a greater reserve volume because it considers the value of waiting before exercising the abandonment option. Paradoxically, for reserve reporting, <em>ex-ante</em> DCF is optimistic about the reserve volume compared with the RO, except in case of mature fields. For the expected volume computation with the abandonment option, we introduce <em>Pruned Pascal’s Algorithm</em> to assess the probability of continuing to produce in the binomial tree. This algorithm is more general and can be used in other RO applications. We use the risk-neutral measure to calculate the reserve value and the real probability measure to calculate the expected reserve volume. Because we employ the real/true probability measure, analysis of the effect of volatility on the reserve volume cannot be performed using the usual <em>ceteris paribus</em> approach. The methodology can also be used in other RO applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47522,"journal":{"name":"JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS","volume":"137 ","pages":"Article 106277"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145584451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Real options: Added return versus added risk 实物期权：增加收益vs增加风险

IF 3.4

JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2025.106276

Arkadiy V. Sakhartov

引用次数: 0

An option-based approach to examining the relationship between uncertainty and real estate investment: Evidence from fifteen European countries 研究不确定性与房地产投资之间关系的基于期权的方法：来自15个欧洲国家的证据

IF 3.4

JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2025.106272

Maria I. Chondrokouki, Andrianos E. Tsekrekos

{"title":"An option-based approach to examining the relationship between uncertainty and real estate investment: Evidence from fifteen European countries","authors":"Maria I. Chondrokouki, Andrianos E. Tsekrekos","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconbus.2025.106272","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconbus.2025.106272","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The neoclassical investment model predicts that only systematic risk affects the rate of investment through developed asset price, whereas the option-based investment model predicts that total investment risk directly affects investment behavior. This study empirically tests the total uncertainty-investment relationship using aggregate construction data on residential real estate from fifteen European countries. We specify and empirically estimate a structural model of asset-market equilibrium and, after controlling for built-asset price, construction cost, expected rent, interest rate levels, expected growth of real rents and systematic risk, we find evidence of an independent role for total uncertainty in the supply of residential real estate. In particular, panel estimation shows that total uncertainty is significantly negatively related to the rate of investment across all sample countries included in our study. This finding appears robust to two alternative measures that we use to proxy aggregate investment. Supplementary analysis suggests that our main finding is unaffected by the global recession of 2008–2009 and the recent Covid pandemic. We conclude that our empirical results provide support for the option-based model and, thus, for the notion that the ability to delay decisions in the face of uncertainty and irreversibility are important aspects of investment in real estate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47522,"journal":{"name":"JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS","volume":"137 ","pages":"Article 106272"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145584449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Introduction to the special issue on recent developments and challenges in real options 介绍关于实物期权的最新发展和挑战的特刊

IF 3.4

JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2025.106286

Francesco Baldi

引用次数: 0

Competitive equilibrium, investment runs, and renewable energy subsidies: A real options analysis 竞争均衡、投资挤兑和可再生能源补贴：实物期权分析

IF 3.4

JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-11-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2025.106261

Yishay D. Maoz , Richard Ruble

引用次数: 0

Private information dissemination and the underpricing of seasoned equity offerings 私人信息传播和经验丰富的股票发行定价过低

IF 3.4

JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2025.106256

Dylan A. Howell

{"title":"Private information dissemination and the underpricing of seasoned equity offerings","authors":"Dylan A. Howell","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconbus.2025.106256","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconbus.2025.106256","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span>Non-Deal Roadshows (NDRs) are an important investor relations<span> activity where institutional investors gain access to the management of firms in whom they may invest. However, little is known about the firm-specific implications of the information conveyed from firms to institutional investors, by way of these private meetings. Therefore, I employ a novel dataset of NDR meetings to examine the relationship between NDR activity and the underpricing of seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) and show that NDR activity is associated with a reduction in SEO underpricing. This relationship is strengthened in firms with infrequent NDR activity, smaller firms, firms with greater analyst forecast errors, and in firms whose SEO underwriter was not the sponsor of their NDR meeting(s). The findings suggest that NDRs reduce the level of asymmetric information between firms and investors, resulting in a lower cost of raising new equity. The findings highlight the relevance of the NDR as an often overlooked mechanism through which firm-specific information is revealed, and they emphasize the need to further understand how </span></span>private information dissemination affects capital market outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47522,"journal":{"name":"JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS","volume":"136 ","pages":"Article 106256"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144860945","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How to incentivize CEOs to boost payouts? The role of inside debt 如何激励首席执行官提高薪酬？内部债务的作用

IF 3.4

JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2025.106259

Artem Anilov, Irina Ivashkovskaya

引用次数: 0